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[Bgamer90]

(snip)

Great post/points.

When a big company like EA is questioning how to support the system (or if they should at all), you know you are in trouble.

 

[TheChewyWaffles]

He's wrong, though. Wii Fit U and Pikmin won't move Wii U's. People who bought Wii Fit had a Wii collecting dust and, by God, they needed something else to justify their initial purchase.

Pikmin? No one gives a shit about that. Certainly GAF does, but it's not going to sell Wii U's. Nope.

edit: my bad, that was Lewis Ward.

Lewis Ward is wrong.

 

[Moonstone]

That's it, not trolling, but that is my reasoning.

To the 5% of you who ARE assholes, bring it on ;-)

Well played!

The Pach 1: Junior GAF 0.

 

[Baconsammy]

He's wrong, though. Wii Fit U and Pikmin won't move Wii U's. People who bought Wii Fit had a Wii collecting dust and, by God, they needed something else to justify their initial purchase.

Pikmin? No one gives a shit about that. Certainly GAF does, but it's not going to sell Wii U's. Nope.

I don't think Michael said those things.

 

[fart town usa]

I'm of the mindset that I want to see Nintendo tank hard with the WiiU.

I own one & enjoy it but I don't like the direction Nintendo has been heading in since the release of the Wii. Nintendo needs to be humbled IMO, much like Sony with the PS3 launch.


Hungry Nintendo is the best Nintendo.

 

[Drakeon]

Isnt it still beating worldwide ps3 / 360 launch aligned ?

360 was supply constrained, PS3 was $600. It's also important to note that neither ever dropped below 70,000 units in a month and given that the Wii U has no reason for sales to increase in February, it's likely to be behind them both soon enough.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Isnt it still beating worldwide ps3 / 360 launch aligned ?

It certainly won't be after February.

 

[Bgamer90]

Patcher being born is a mistake that we will never recover from.

Wow. Really?

The Wii U means that much to you?

 

[PaulExcellent]

First, I must apologize...

I like this post, and see his point.
Very well done, sir.
I retract my previous statement.

 

[trinest]

Apparently not seeing as a lot of Nintendo fanboys think the WiiU is doing "fine".

Noone thinks this. Everyone knows that this drought will bite Nintendo in the bum if they can't do the "March Re Launch" properly with a good solid lineup throughout the year.

We know whats also coming later this year which will be good for Nintendo and us, but right now its seeing if they can focus down to provide the numbers the lack of software dwindled in this drought peroid.

 

[fart town usa]

Isnt it still beating worldwide ps3 / 360 launch aligned ?

I find that hard to imagine if it only sold (NA) 55k in January.

I could be wrong though.

 

[TheChewyWaffles]

I don't think Michael said those things.

Yah my bad, I thought Pachter said them due to the bolding of the OP.

 

[C.Monkey]

Isnt it still beating worldwide ps3 / 360 launch aligned ?

360 was supply constrained, PS3 was $600. Oh and the WiiU just sold 55k in January in the US and 34,000 pieces of software in the UK in January. If the WiiU was ever beating the 360/PS3 launches, it surely isn't anymore.

 

[gutter_trash]

before that I knew that his name was pronounced Packter, I always read it as Patch--er

 

[Dude Abides]

Good analysis, but it doesn't stop the original statement from being outlandish to get attention.

Or maybe he assumed he was addressing people who can understand context.

 

[H_Prestige]

Isnt it still beating worldwide ps3 / 360 launch aligned ?

And if it is, so what?

 

[Quadraphonic]

Noone thinks this.

A lot of people think this.

 

[sd28821]

A lot of people think this.

names please

 

[oneils]

and like three months ago this same guy was saying the Wii U would be a huge success

Did he use the word success? I only remember him saying that it would be sold out for the first few months. That does not necessarily translate to success.

 

[Empyrean Heaven]

God Patcher really does love to troll Nintendo

He's not the only one. Try asking anybody at IGN, Gamespot, etc. about Nintendo's future prospects.

 

[kikonawa]

Shit happens

 

[Baconsammy]

Did he use the word success? I only remember him saying that it would be sold out for the first few months. That does not necessarily translate to success.

He didn't comment on the long term success of the Wii U as far as I can remember, but did presume that based on recent history that the launch would be a lot more successful than it was. Obviously no one predicted what eventually did happen would happen.

 

[kejigoto]

I keep hearing about how the smart phone and tablet industry are going to be the death of dedicated gaming handhelds but I don't think the people buying the 3DS have got the memo yet. In fact I still don't understand why it has to be one or the other and why they can't exist in the same realm without being a massive impact on each other.

From where I'm sitting they cater to do totally different experiences and generally have a different audience. If I'm looking for something I can surf the internet on, use email, make calls, and other things like that a Vita or 3DS aren't even on my radar. If I'm looking for gaming on the go from my favorite developers I'm looking at the 3DS and Vita.

I know there are those out there who will game on their tablet or smart phone but were those people who were likely to pick up a handheld anyways or just someone who wants to kill five minutes now and then with some Angry Birds or Temple Run?

Now Pachter talks about how with low Wii-U sales means less third party support and this definitely makes sense but then he turns around projecting gloom for the 3DS market because the hardware isn't as profitable as the DS market is/was despite it selling well. Correct me if I'm wrong but if the 3DS is selling well doesn't that mean more support from third party developers and a larger user base to market games to especially those coming from Nintendo themselves? Just look at how Animal Crossing has been selling in Japan. I'm gonna take a stab in the dark and guess that Nintendo is making quite a bit on that.

Right now Nintendo's earnings are going to suffer because the Wii-U has had a stumble at launch and is also coming off the R&D phase for the Wii-U to get it to market but I don't think they are going to remain in the break even or loss category for long. If the latest rumors are true about the next Xbox requiring a constant internet connection and not supporting used games then that makes the Wii-U look all the better and I also refer you to the above about the constantly expanding 3DS user base.

I think it's far too early to call the Wii-U a mistake Nintendo won't recover from.

 

[Plinko]

A lot of people think this.

I haven't seen it once on these boards.

I mean, how can you spin that NPD sales amount?

 

[pvpness]

Such exciting times in the industry! Feb. is going to be epic. So excited to see what Nintendo will do. They surprised me early this generation already by not having enough software ready for the Wii U launch, after letting the Wii die alone in the gutter. What's next??

 

[fart town usa]

I think it's far too early to call the Wii-U a mistake Nintendo won't recover from.

Was GAF around during the fall of the Dreamcast? I'd love to read some of those threads and compare them to what we see with the WiiU. I know it's different but it'd be fun to compare/contrast.

 

[pawelranger]

Microsoft's profits off 360 have been great enough to mask the huge losses in the groups that are put in the same division as them. Sony, you're right, has a lot to worry about.

Yeah in the last two years, Microsoft began to be profitable with the xbox360, but they still doesn't recover the losses that they made in the first years and specially with the first Xbox.

The 3DS is doing fine, I don't know why people are so negative, there is a lot of companies that would wish to have an install base of 30 millions in their products in only 1 year 8 months, yes the software sales and last month hardware sales in the west weren't good, but people talk that Japan doesn't care (considering that Japan saved the PSP) and is a situation that has solution is not like they can't recover. Just give the console games as they does with Japan, considering the content of the 3DS in America last year is not surprising the numbers.

Even if Nintendo in hardware doesn't make profits they can still make profits selling games. And with all the money they did with the DS and Wii, Nintendo is not near to be doomed. I would be more worried for Sony.

 

[D-e-f-]

First, I must apologize for calling two thirds of you assholes. It's probably more like 5%, so I was overly sensitive in my generalization.

Second, and to the point, there is actually some reasoning behind my comments that the Wii U is a mistake from which Nintendo may not recover, and I threw the 3DS' cannibalization from smart phones and tablets in there to make a point.

Nintendo has historically made money, and a lot of money, on each hardware unit sold. The DS at $99 US is more profitable for them than the 3DS at $169 (see many quotes from Nintendo in Kyoto about losing money, or being barely profitable). The DS sold 23.5 million units in FY:07 (ended March 31), 30.3 million in FY:08, 31.1 million in FY:09, and 27.1 million in FY:10. Nintendo made money, and a lot of money, in each of those years.

I think it is instructive to use operating income in Yen as a guide, since Iwata said he would consider resigning if Nintendo did not earn ¥100 billion in FY:14. Nintendo made ¥90 billion in FY:06, ¥226 billion in FY:07, ¥487 billion in FY:08, ¥555 billion in FY:09, and ¥356 billion in FY:10. In FY:11, DS sales dropped to 17.5 million units, and operating income fell to ¥171 billion; in FY:12, combined DS and 3DS sales were 18.6 million units, but operating income disappeared, and Nintendo generated a LOSS of ¥37 billion. Obviously, the loss was impacted by lower Wii sales and lower software sales, but the point here is that the 3DS doesn't generate much of a profit per unit, if any, and the DS did.

Over the same period, Wii hardware sales were 0, 5.8 million, 18.6 million, 25.9 million, 20.5 million, 15.0 million, and 9.8 million. We have been repeatedly assured by Nintendo that the company makes a profit on every Wii sold, but as sales leveled off at 10 million, the company printed its first loss ever.

In FY:13 (the current year, ending next month), Nintendo is projected to sell 17.3 million DS and 3DS units combined, and to sell 8 million Wii and Wii U units combined, and is projected to generate an operating loss of ¥20 billion. That means that current levels of sales keep the company at roughly breakeven.

My comment about the Wii U being a "mistake" from which the company "may not recover" was intended to say that if Wii U sales don't materially improve, Nintendo is unlikely to be profitable. They have around ¥1 trillion (around $11 billion) in cash, so they aren't in danger of going out of business for decades. However, if they aren't profitable, they aren't doing a good job for shareholders.

To elaborate, if the Wii U is not generating profits, and if the 3DS is not generating profits, the only thing that will generate profits is software. Nintendo is ensured high sales of its proprietary software, but it makes the most money on its royalty business, collecting fees from third parties for the privilege of letting them put out games on Nintendo platforms. Publishing (software) revenues peaked at ¥675 billion in FY:09, and are on track to come in around ¥235 billion this year; my call is that if hardware sales don't materially improve above current combined levels, software sales are unlikely to materially grow. If software sales don't materially improve, losses or break even will become the norm. Nintendo will not "recover" to its formal highly profitable glory.

The poor sales of the Wii U in January are likely to impact third party publisher plans to support the console. Notice that GTAV is not on the Wii U; that wasn't a typo, they don't see enough promise in sales to cause them to spend extra development dollars on a Wii U version. I have spoken to several publishers who are skeptical, and I think that the Wii U will see a lower level of third party support than the Wii did, unless sales materially improve. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, but without third party titles, Nintendo will not generate its customary levels of royalties, and losses or break even could become the norm.

Many of you point out that the 3DS is selling better than the DS at a similar point. That's true, but the DS was always profitable, and the 3DS is not. Also, the DS saw sales go from 8.8 million units in its first four quarters to 18.0 million its next four, to 20.2 million in its third full year; I'm pretty confident that the 3DS will not get to 20 million units, but even if it did, it would generate little profit from hardware. Keep in mind that the DS redesign to a lite version boosted sales, and there was little competition for 12 year-old and older from smart phones and tablets. Now, parents who can afford it are opting for Kindles, iPads, and smart phones for their teenagers, and the more casual of those are perfectly happy playing Angry Birds and putting their DS or 3DS into a drawer.

The important point is that if 3DS sales level off at 15 million and Wii U sales level off at 8 - 10 million, software sales will be much lower than they were in the past. If Nintendo doesn't make a profit on hardware, they can't afford to cut prices further. If they do cut price, it will likely occur as their manufacturing costs come down, but I don't expect big hardware profits in the foreseeable future. They are stuck with software profits, and at current sales levels, they are unlikely to make an overall profit from software.

That's it, not trolling, but that is my reasoning.

To the 5% of you who ARE assholes, bring it on ;-)

Thanks for taking the time to explain. It makes sense that way.

But whatev's hope dies last! Anything can happen at this point

 

[oneils]

He didn't comment on the long term success of the Wii U as far as I can remember, but did presume that based on recent history that the launch would be a lot more successful than it was. Obviously no one predicted what eventually did happen would happen.

Yeah, that's what I thought. If he thinks Nintendo might not recover, he must be pretty bullish. So I wonder what value he puts on NTDOY.

 

[kitsuneyo]

Such exciting times in the industry! Feb. is going to be epic. So excited to see what Nintendo will do. They surprised me early this generation already by not having enough software ready for the Wii U launch, after letting the Wii die alone in the gutter. What's next??

I'm pretty surprised about that. Wii was barely supported for the past two years, so I thought Wii U was going to come out with a bunch of killer first party games. Makes you wonder with Miyamoto & Co have been doing with their time.

 

[Baconsammy]

Yeah in the last two years, Microsoft began to be profitable with the xbox360, but they still doesn't recover the losses that they made in the first years and specially with the first Xbox.

4 years actually. And they've made a profit for the generation. Correct though that they haven't made a profit overall for the entirety of the Xbox brand.

 

[Taker666]

I wonder if we'll get the same sort of negative commentary if either Orbis or Durango do worse than the Wii U in their first 3 months...I'm doubtful.

It also seems bizarre to hear Mr Pachter constantly down on the 3DS...

..yet he barely mentions the Vita.

Do the media only want negative commentary from him in regards to Nintendo? It seems that way.

 

[Huff]

I haven't seen it once on these boards.

I mean, how can you spin that NPD sales amount?

If you check the NPD thread, there are people saying it's fine and just wait until X game hits.

Not that anyone should be concerned with these people.

 

[Empyrean Heaven]

My comment about the Wii U being a "mistake" from which the company "may not recover" was intended to say that if Wii U sales don't materially improve, Nintendo is unlikely to be profitable. They have around ¥1 trillion (around $11 billion) in cash, so they aren't in danger of going out of business for decades. However, if they aren't profitable, they aren't doing a good job for shareholders.

See Pach, I have to disagree here. I don't think there is any truth of Nintendo going out of business, that much is true. The issue though, that seems to be brought up all the time, is if Nintendo will, like Sega in 2001, drop hardware development to make software for Sony and Microsoft. And I think THAT is a definite possibility, considering that isn't a decision based solely on how much they have in the bank, but on the decline of their profits. And while Iwata and co. is steadfast that it will never happen, Nintendo has shareholders that certainly have rights and are at least seemingly open to it happening, with many capital investment groups questioning Nintendo not entering iOS development last year, which could potentially be a huge moneymaker. Again, Iwata feels that having a hardware division allows the company to be fully ready for the future, but if the Wii U and 3DS continues on the downward trend they are on, he might not have any other choice but to bite the bullet.

 

[KingJ2002]

The Wii U definitely misfired out of the gate.

- No Wii Sports
- Confused Consumers (people think it's a tablet)
- Poor Advertising

But i still believe that Nintendo's first party efforts will turn the ship around when they arrive.
In the meantime they should use this time to focus on software improvements to the nintendo network and continue to flesh it out... because clearly with Sony coming with their improved PSN powered by Gaikai, and Microsoft going strong with their Xbox Live service... Nintendo needs to ensure that their Nintendo Network is a viable competitor.

Maybe during the spring Nintendo should consider another Advertising blitz to showcase the systems strengths... no more of this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dbGJieRaH0


Reason being is that when you cut this up into 30 second spots... the ad doesn't explain anything aside from it being on two screens. It could be interpreted as a hinderance instead of a worthwhile feature that can free up a TV.

So, if Nintendo spoke to the families that made their system successful in the first place... showcasing family members utilizing the systems strengths... like google did with it's nexus ads. it could improve the mindshare Nintendo has as being a system for the family... instead of being your kids toy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBvrjfbOHy0


overall... hardware isn't the issue... the Wii U doesn't have RROD type issues.. it's just nintendo hasnt convinced the family to pick one up... and if they advertised better... they will come.

 

[Refreshment.01]

That post where pachter finally elaborates on some of his thought process, whether I agree with him or not in his assessment, completely restores my respect for him, even if not particularly for his predictive skills.

It was reasoned, articulated his position well and even made attempts to amend some of the bad blood. I really enjoyed it reading it. Good shit, Michael.

I don't know man, first the outlandish statement. Im not against or pro with his pov, but the fact there's some data in there doesn't make the analisys more valid.

The man is indeed backpedaling. I recall him saying that Wii U will be sold out from launch through March. Now, the tune changes to "Nintendo near the bottom of the abyss".

No ill feeling towards the man, he just doesn't know videogames much.

 

[SapientWolf]

My comment about the Wii U being a "mistake" from which the company "may not recover" was intended to say that if Wii U sales don't materially improve, Nintendo is unlikely to be profitable. They have around ¥1 trillion (around $11 billion) in cash, so they aren't in danger of going out of business for decades. However, if they aren't profitable, they aren't doing a good job for shareholders.

Not likely to be profitable in 2013 or not likely to be profitable ever again? The phrasing used seems to suggest finality.

 

[MikeE21286]

Was GAF around during the fall of the Dreamcast? I'd love to read some of those threads and compare them to what we see with the WiiU. I know it's different but it'd be fun to compare/contrast.

There's some funny DC threads in this archive of old school GAF

http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive.htm

 

[fart town usa]

overall... hardware isn't the issue... the Wii U doesn't have RROD type issues.

That's not exactly true. While I'm not overly aware of any fatal errors the WiiU might suffer from, it's definitely the jankiest system Nintendo has ever released. Slow loading and hard locks aplenty.

 

[fart town usa]

There's some funny DC threads in this archive of old school GAF

http://www.goodcowfilms.com/farm/basement/ga-archive.htm

Thanks!

 

[liger05]

It also seems bizarre to hear Mr Pachter constantly down on the 3DS...

..yet he barely mentions the Vita.

I have wondered why he never seems to mention the vita anywhere near as much he has talked about the 3DS.

The Vita just did 35k for FFS and is has bombed hard in Japan yet his still banging on about the 3DS.

 

[Quadraphonic]

I haven't seen it once on these boards.

I mean, how can you spin that NPD sales amount?

Usually it's fanboys that change the subject and bring up Nintendo's bank account and how much money they have to stick around.

 

[The Mana Legend]

Do you really believe that?

Yes. Paper Mario 2 and Super Paper Mario bored me to tears.

 

[Zeroth]

I don't know man, first the outlandish statement. Im not against or pro with his pov, but the fact there's some data in there doesn't make the analisys more valid.

The man is indeed backpedaling. I recall him saying that Wii U will be sold out from launch through March. Now, the tune changes to "Nintendo near the bottom of the abyss".

No ill feeling towards the man, he just doesn't know videogames much.

To be honest, you have to remember the WiiU sold out thing wasn't something exclusive to him. It was pretty much a consensus on GAF that the WiiU would be sold out for several months in Japan, and look where we are now. If anything, Patcher is reacting to the recent events with real data, rather than conjecturing something out of thin air. I think there have been more.... questionable predictions than that one.

 

[oneils]

First, I must apologize for calling two thirds of you assholes. It's probably more like 5%, so I was overly sensitive in my generalization.

Second, and to the point, there is actually some reasoning behind my comments that the Wii U is a mistake from which Nintendo may not recover, and I threw the 3DS' cannibalization from smart phones and tablets in there to make a point.

Nintendo has historically made money, and a lot of money, on each hardware unit sold. The DS at $99 US is more profitable for them than the 3DS at $169 (see many quotes from Nintendo in Kyoto about losing money, or being barely profitable). The DS sold 23.5 million units in FY:07 (ended March 31), 30.3 million in FY:08, 31.1 million in FY:09, and 27.1 million in FY:10. Nintendo made money, and a lot of money, in each of those years.

I think it is instructive to use operating income in Yen as a guide, since Iwata said he would consider resigning if Nintendo did not earn ¥100 billion in FY:14. Nintendo made ¥90 billion in FY:06, ¥226 billion in FY:07, ¥487 billion in FY:08, ¥555 billion in FY:09, and ¥356 billion in FY:10. In FY:11, DS sales dropped to 17.5 million units, and operating income fell to ¥171 billion; in FY:12, combined DS and 3DS sales were 18.6 million units, but operating income disappeared, and Nintendo generated a LOSS of ¥37 billion. Obviously, the loss was impacted by lower Wii sales and lower software sales, but the point here is that the 3DS doesn't generate much of a profit per unit, if any, and the DS did.

Over the same period, Wii hardware sales were 0, 5.8 million, 18.6 million, 25.9 million, 20.5 million, 15.0 million, and 9.8 million. We have been repeatedly assured by Nintendo that the company makes a profit on every Wii sold, but as sales leveled off at 10 million, the company printed its first loss ever.

In FY:13 (the current year, ending next month), Nintendo is projected to sell 17.3 million DS and 3DS units combined, and to sell 8 million Wii and Wii U units combined, and is projected to generate an operating loss of ¥20 billion. That means that current levels of sales keep the company at roughly breakeven.

My comment about the Wii U being a "mistake" from which the company "may not recover" was intended to say that if Wii U sales don't materially improve, Nintendo is unlikely to be profitable. They have around ¥1 trillion (around $11 billion) in cash, so they aren't in danger of going out of business for decades. However, if they aren't profitable, they aren't doing a good job for shareholders.

To elaborate, if the Wii U is not generating profits, and if the 3DS is not generating profits, the only thing that will generate profits is software. Nintendo is ensured high sales of its proprietary software, but it makes the most money on its royalty business, collecting fees from third parties for the privilege of letting them put out games on Nintendo platforms. Publishing (software) revenues peaked at ¥675 billion in FY:09, and are on track to come in around ¥235 billion this year; my call is that if hardware sales don't materially improve above current combined levels, software sales are unlikely to materially grow. If software sales don't materially improve, losses or break even will become the norm. Nintendo will not "recover" to its formal highly profitable glory.

The poor sales of the Wii U in January are likely to impact third party publisher plans to support the console. Notice that GTAV is not on the Wii U; that wasn't a typo, they don't see enough promise in sales to cause them to spend extra development dollars on a Wii U version. I have spoken to several publishers who are skeptical, and I think that the Wii U will see a lower level of third party support than the Wii did, unless sales materially improve. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it, but without third party titles, Nintendo will not generate its customary levels of royalties, and losses or break even could become the norm.

Many of you point out that the 3DS is selling better than the DS at a similar point. That's true, but the DS was always profitable, and the 3DS is not. Also, the DS saw sales go from 8.8 million units in its first four quarters to 18.0 million its next four, to 20.2 million in its third full year; I'm pretty confident that the 3DS will not get to 20 million units, but even if it did, it would generate little profit from hardware. Keep in mind that the DS redesign to a lite version boosted sales, and there was little competition for 12 year-old and older from smart phones and tablets. Now, parents who can afford it are opting for Kindles, iPads, and smart phones for their teenagers, and the more casual of those are perfectly happy playing Angry Birds and putting their DS or 3DS into a drawer.

The important point is that if 3DS sales level off at 15 million and Wii U sales level off at 8 - 10 million, software sales will be much lower than they were in the past. If Nintendo doesn't make a profit on hardware, they can't afford to cut prices further. If they do cut price, it will likely occur as their manufacturing costs come down, but I don't expect big hardware profits in the foreseeable future. They are stuck with software profits, and at current sales levels, they are unlikely to make an overall profit from software.

That's it, not trolling, but that is my reasoning.

To the 5% of you who ARE assholes, bring it on ;-)

Finally waded through a ton of crap to get this. Thanks Pachter.

Jesus christ pachter tldr; that essay. who the fuck is gonna read all that

HAHA! Yeah, jeez! Just give us the pithy soundbite already!

 

[Amir0x]

I don't know man, first the outlandish statement. Im not against or pro with his pov, but the fact there's some data in there doesn't make the analisys more valid.

The man is indeed backpedaling. I recall him saying that Wii U will be sold out from launch through March. Now, the tune changes to "Nintendo near the bottom of the abyss".

No ill feeling towards the man, he just doesn't know videogames much.

I didn't say it made his analysis more valid though - I just said it made him earn my respect. The key to respect is that you can have it for someone even when you disagree with them. Of course there's no way I can agree with most of Michael Pachter's consistently incorrect predictions, but at least now I know that sometimes he has a real perspective and explanation for why he feels the way he does, and he can describe it in detail. That's all that matters to me.

But here he is, explaining in extreme detail what he meant (and, in this case, he actually did raise some valid points in his explanation), and even going so far as to try to reduce some of the bad blood that has been going on between some of neoGAF and himself. I think it is a pretty good example of a post that can spur a discussion that means something. It's not always about just agreeing with everything all the time.

 

[Red Blaster]

I have wondered why he never seems to mention the vita anywhere near as much he has talked about the 3DS.

The Vita just did 35k for FFS and is has bombed hard in Japan yet his still banging on about the 3DS.

cause sony themselves don't give a fuck about the vita and will only be giving it cursory support as they focus on their core competency in the ps4

 

[Currygan]

meanwhile at Pachter's home

"Looks like I reached my Neogaf thread quota for the week. Next week...hm...let's say something abrasive about Nintendo, for a change. 20 page thread guaranteed!"

 

[Keyouta]

Nintendo will do fine by the time 5/6 years are up, but they won't reach the heights of the Wii. They will end up making a profit with the console, I think.

If, however, the Wii U stays around the 60k mark for a year, I would be much more worried. Nintendo will have to bring some big guns to create a distraction from the attention the next Xbox and Playstation consoles will be getting this coming E3.

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

See Pach, I have to disagree here. I don't think there is any truth of Nintendo going out of business, that much is true. The issue though, that seems to be brought up all the time, is if Nintendo will, like Sega in 2001, drop hardware development to make software for Sony and Microsoft. And I think THAT is a definite possibility, considering that isn't a decision based solely on how much they have in the bank, but on the decline of their profits. And while Iwata and co. is steadfast that it will never happen, Nintendo has shareholders that certainly have rights and are at least seemingly open to it happening, with many capital investment groups questioning Nintendo not entering iOS development last year, which could potentially be a huge moneymaker. Again, Iwata feels that having a hardware division allows the company to be fully ready for the future, but if the Wii U and 3DS continues on the downward trend they are on, he might not have any other choice but to bite the bullet.

I really don't see Nintendo ever going third party. Everything I have learned about them over the years suggests that their success is in equal part due to the fact that they own the hardware that their top quality software runs on. It could be that their familiarity of the hardware is why their software is so good and going third party would see their software quality decline.

Plus, Nintendo is a very controlling company, they have always kept as much control over third parties as possible. They see themselves as the leaders, not the followers. I think Nintendo would go back to taxi cabs and playing cards before going third party.

Of course, I could be wrong, this is all just my opinion.