Enthusiasts aren't the main market.
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Pachter: Wii U a "mistake Nintendo may never recover from"
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
Enthusiasts aren't the main market.
If I had the raw data, I'd rather do it myself.
razgriz417
Member
Thank god I couldn't get to this thread til now, so much vitriol in the first ~10 pages and a ban too, ton of material for the @NeogafWorstPosts account haha. Thanks for replying Pachter, some real intersting insight in those posts
Data is pointless without context. It's like looking at a graph without scale or axis labels. I see a lot of past Nintendo numbers but it's linked to quarterly ranges, not title releases.
It's like when the government releases figures to show that the economy has improved but the majority of their numbers actually comes from boosts of the Olympics and the one off pension dealings.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
As in my previous post, I was more contentious of the actual data - it didn't seem particularly enlightening, especially since there's no real way to extrapolate without looking at a concrete Nintendo release schedule.
Given that he says they "may" never recover from it, I think this is reasonable.
Sure, it's possible. It's certainly looking like fairly large errors were made. I'm not necessarily betting on Nintendo's doom, but of course when things go wrong in a competitive industry it's possible for any false step to be your last.
Sure, it's possible. It's certainly looking like fairly large errors were made. I'm not necessarily betting on Nintendo's doom, but of course when things go wrong in a competitive industry it's possible for any false step to be your last.
peanutbutterlatte
Member
But it's been proven that non-enthusiasts have no alliances and change what they like very quickly.
Baconsammy
Banned
So Pachter is right when he tells you that PS4 and Xbox games won't look nice, but he's being paid off when he tells you that Nintendo may have some issues? The pretzel you have to wrap yourself in just to reach that line of thinking is unbelievable.
When the market moves from one type of device to another (gaming dedicated handheld) to a multifunction device (tablet), it's going to be next to impossible to get them to go back.
Nintendo will recover. That I don't doubt. I feel folks are making their situation come off worse than it is. I also know what response that statement will attract.
Still, what's the term? Self fulfilling prophecy? With all this negative press Nintendo is getting even before the console was released, it's no wonder why it's performing under expectations.
In any case, I've no doubt of their recovery. Then this short period right now when they're stumbling will likely be quickly forgotten and folks will move on to the next failure to mock.
Still, what's the term? Self fulfilling prophecy? With all this negative press Nintendo is getting even before the console was released, it's no wonder why it's performing under expectations.
In any case, I've no doubt of their recovery. Then this short period right now when they're stumbling will likely be quickly forgotten and folks will move on to the next failure to mock.
See, there's plenty of nuanced discussion to have here. I own a Wii U and I'm not afraid to say that it's not doing particularly well. However, a large part of that is owed to perception, the theoretical competition from Microsoft and Sony. Everyone makes the Dreamcast comparison but if that exact same scenario were to occur, Nintendo would be far better equipped to see it through.
The thing is Nintendo's weakness is also their saving grace - they're a conservative company and I like to think of them as a Japanese company competing globally than a global company operating out of Japan.
People ask why Nintendo didn't take advantage of their market position with the Wii - it's the same reason they didn't drown with the N64 and the Gamecube. They're risk averse and mitigate as much as they can. Their 'risk' with the Wii U doesn't even register with some of the shit Sega, Sony and Microsoft have pulled over the years.
This is why I struggle to go along with statements like Nintendo are doomed. Your point is a different one - to fight for market share, Nintendo have to adjust particularly their attitude to third parties. As you said, it's a catch 22 situation and it's a reasonable stance to have.
I just think for a professional to sway from one opinion to another publicly isn't a particularly good image to foster.
If anything, the poor sales of a new system are a sign of a potentially weakened consumer need for video game systems. With the Nintendo name of it, you would be expecting it to sell much better. Like people have discussed, the next generation of systems as a whole could (and probably will) end up being a much smaller market. People will buy the new systems regardless, but if a $350 dollar Nintendo system is not selling well, I don't think that Sony and Microsoft will have record breaking month to month sales either when the new systems release.
That said, Nintendo will ultimately be fine. They aren't in debt, and they have games on the way, I just don't see the Wii U being a money maker for them in the long run.
TheRedSnifit
Member
CONFIRMED: The Wii U is going to sell so well next year that MS and Sony will discontinue their consoles. Also, Apple will be bankrupted by 3DS.
Refreshment.01
Member
But what's the value of a statement such as that? If we look at the past, specificaly to Nintendo in the home space, after the SNES the comapny was in a downward spyral. Most people took for granted the company losing relevance with each succesive cycle.
What we can learn from that is simple. Given Nintendo relationship with the rest of the industry for them to be really meaningful or leaders in the home console space it'll take a revolutionary product. From a mile away Wii U wasn't that. However, chances are the company remains profitable when the key software starts landing. That's been the case for Nintendo in the past, betting for this trend to repeat itself is very safe i would say.
Actually I disagree - in any industry (and I worked in one where a false step had far graver consequences than video games that didn't sell) you have to be sure that any risks you take can be mitigated as much as possible.
If you're faced with an option that could be so catastrophic, no matter how rewarding, it's pretty unadvisable to go down that road. I would be very surprised if Nintendo, out of the three console manufacturers, were the ones to take the biggest risk.
(Poor Sega
)Synth_floyd
Banned
It's funny how people dissect his analysis like it's the gospel. And then when he comes into the thread it's like Jesus clarifying stuff he said in the bible.
Pachter: "I just got off of a 12 hour workday and fired off a 2 sentence reply to an email I got about Nintendo"
Honestly the response to his comments is more about the state of neogaffers than anything that he said. Lots of Nintendo love/hate and people love to argue about it.
Pachter: "I just got off of a 12 hour workday and fired off a 2 sentence reply to an email I got about Nintendo"
Honestly the response to his comments is more about the state of neogaffers than anything that he said. Lots of Nintendo love/hate and people love to argue about it.
Interceptor
Banned
And this is the one point where your expertise is lacking. The gaming part itself. Nintendo would never even consider porting a gba game to an ios device. Obvious business reasons aside - it's about the game itself. It's all about the games. Nintendo designs their games around their hardware. You simply cant play a gba game on an ios device the way it ment to be. This is not a business decision it's one about quality. A point Nintendo cares about. The frequent mentioning of ios ports just shows a deep misundersterstanding of nintendos philosophy. Actually this might be the missing variable which is always screwing with your predictions.
postet from a wii u.. not on purpose..
Quadrangulum
Banned
It was worth wading through this pool of garbage to read the elaboration. I didn't know software royalties were so critical to Nintendo's bottom line. In that case, leaving hardware development does seem ludicrous from a business perspective.
It also suggests that Iwata deserves much blame for putting out two loss-making consoles. Nintendo should have released even less powerful systems that were guaranteed to make a profit at $299 and $199. This should always be their MO and I think it'd be a fairly successful one because the other hardware makers seem incapable of doing that given their ambitions. I understand this wouldn't have been tolerated coming right off the successes of the DS and Wii but a careful Nintendo should always aim for profitability from a small userbase baseline.
It also suggests that Iwata deserves much blame for putting out two loss-making consoles. Nintendo should have released even less powerful systems that were guaranteed to make a profit at $299 and $199. This should always be their MO and I think it'd be a fairly successful one because the other hardware makers seem incapable of doing that given their ambitions. I understand this wouldn't have been tolerated coming right off the successes of the DS and Wii but a careful Nintendo should always aim for profitability from a small userbase baseline.
Ghost_Protocol
Member
How anyone could still think this way after reading his responses is mind numbing. This is that 5%-10% shit you were talking about, Pachter. The vast majority of us do not think you're an idiot, or a press tool.
And this is the one point where your expertise is lacking. The gaming part itself. Nintendo would never even consider porting a gba game to an ios device. Obvious business reasons aside - it's about the game itself. It's all about the games. Nintendo designs their games around their hardware. You simply cant play a gba game on an ios device the way it ment to be. This is not a business decision it's one about quality. A point Nintendo cares about. The frequent mentioning of ios ports just shows a deep misundersterstanding of nintendos philosophy. Actually this might be the missing variable which is always screwing with your predictions.
postet from a wii u.. not on purpose..
This is another excellent example.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Oh, I get it. It's because Pachter is so terrible that he's not only wrong, but the opposite of what he says invariably occurs. Funny stuff. I think you're the first person in the thread to hint at that.
It might be worth your while to read a little bit of the thread and see that Pachter has actually expounded on this a bit. The "Pachter is a big dumb dummie who is never right" reactions are slightly less on point given that.
Or maybe you could have followed the post by Evilore and attacked the post with his information on how he reached that conclusion and not Pachter himself? Of course, you can continue on with your "analysis". Your call.
First to reply with the joke. Congrats.
It seems it should be best to say that the market is unpredictable and they will have a tough time with the upcoming competition.
Weak software lineup along with a tad bit high price point will lead to weak sales. Nintendo starts to pump out AAA titles and I think they will at the very worst pump out 6 figure sales each month along with big holiday numbers. But right now what is the must get game for Wii-U?
Its a product of weak software not that the system is illfated. The pad is a good enough gimmick and it actually can lead to useful innovation for games. The systems specs are underwhelming but they can make up for it with software.
Basically the problem has a easy solution. Its not as thought there are several AAA games out there for Wii-U and its not selling. Get games out for it and people will buy it.
Its a product of weak software not that the system is illfated. The pad is a good enough gimmick and it actually can lead to useful innovation for games. The systems specs are underwhelming but they can make up for it with software.
Basically the problem has a easy solution. Its not as thought there are several AAA games out there for Wii-U and its not selling. Get games out for it and people will buy it.
dragonfart28
Banned
It would be, if I actually agreed to your false premise.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Coming right up... wait, are you trying to get me banned, ghst?
Baki
Member
Wow, crazy work hours, even at this stage of your career. That's probably the downside of working in the 'buy' side of the industry. Investors have you by the balls. :/
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
I agree. I don't think Nintendo is doomed and it would take a long series of failed hardware to bring them down. But barring some bold and brilliant moves this year, the Wii U might be doomed. The Dreamcast was selling a whole lot better than the Wii U before Sega pulled the plug.
Changing positions in a rapidly changing market is normal. It's the people that maintain the same position despite the indicators that it's wrong that I regard with suspicion.
if you ever go down, grab my wrists and i'll follow you down the plug hole.
The Albatross
Member
Love when pachter said something that all of gaf has been saying for months, pachter must be wrong
frankie_baby
Member
they actually own 2/3 of the pokemon company, the other one third is owned by gamefreak who i can only imagine like having some level of independence
Oppo
Member
So how do you explain the Virtual Console and things like that, then? Are those games not taken from their "pure" original environment, playing on hardware that was never designed for them?
Refreshment.01
Member
Not to be too anal here, but DC was selling better at heavy discounted price. I can't believe anyone would take the DC comparison seriously, Nintendo is not even close to the amount of damage Sega sustained by the time the DC was released.
Wii U has hit rock botton it can only go up when some decent software starts landing.
That's not a very good counter argument if you think it more throughly.
But... The real problem that Nintendo has about putting their catalogue in iOS has to do with the price of software and the perception of brand depreciation. Iwata tried really hard to prevent the traditional players of the industry about the potential danger of adopting the iOS model for their software.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Wii U has a good chance, games are what will do it
Vane_MagicCity
Banned
They also need Sony and/or Microsoft to do something stupid, like no used games and/or always online consoles.
And again, Dreamcast comparisons are way off-base because Sega released the Dreamcast after the Sega-CD, 32X, and Saturn, all of which could be considered flops of varying degrees. The Wii U is the less successful follow-up to one of the best selling video game systems of all time.
In other words: "I have not yet begun to fight!"
Dion Blaster
Member
The hardware WAS designed to play them. Hence the accurate performance and readily available controllers (with actual buttons) to do so.
Oppo
Member
I was playing a bit of devil's advocate, but your argument is better. I dont think it's because Nintendo software is mystically tied to Nintendo hardware but I do buy the pricing and branding considerations.
Even 3DS plays DS games in a poor way, but at any rate see above.linkratos said:
Steve Youngblood
Member
I don't think it's unfair to say that it has a chance. But a good chance? I really think that some are ignoring just how terrible those January numbers are, and how there's no reprieve from them any time in the near future.
"It's the slow time and there are no good games right now; bad sales numbers are to be expected."
There's some truth to that, but it seems more valid if the assessment is merely that the current numbers are mediocre, or just "bad." 57K is awful, and no other territory is painting a particularly rosy picture.
Yes, the Dreamcast was the last nail in the coffin- emphasis on LAST. If the Wii U fails, it may be the first nail, but it's hardly an irreversible slide from here to irrelevancy. Nintendo will still have a chance to change their fortunes, but they'll need to step outside their comfort zone and make some bold decisions, like developing more games to appeal to western consumers.
I'm pretty sure they haven't planned anything like that, at least not as a primary plan. But they could certainly cut the Wii U's life short if it's a complete failure.
TheRedSnifit
Member
So basically, a "real gamer" is somebody who shares your tastes. Got it.
Holy shit, how old is he? Trying to sound all mature shitting on Nintendo while playing Super Mature Brown Shooter #468992