Still don't know how we get 150k for Titanfall week 1.
Don't know where Minecraft numbers comes but Mpl90 wrote:
Don't know where Minecraft numbers comes but Mpl90 wrote:
-
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PAL Charts - Week 13, 2014
- Thread starter Bruno MB
- Start date
Chobel
Member
He's assuming PC version represent exactly 6%, while in reality it could be anything between 5.5% and 6.49%.
5.5% give us ~133K for all versions, and 125k for xbone.
So wait, is this where your 630k figure for PS4 comes from?
Because if you did think it was a 1/7 ratio and it's not a typo in this post (incidentally 63 is a multiple of 7
) this means you have 90k for ISS week 1.But the ratio according to MCV was 1 in 9 owners, not 7.
So, PS4 >800k confirmed?
SwiftDeath
Member
We could figure out future week sales of the same title based on that [I.E. W2/W3/W4 for TF if we get W1 TF] but it wouldn't give us everything else
Any week of TF would give us all of the MGS numbers though as being around 100 less than MGSW2 for TFW3 wouldn't cause too large a margin for error
I assume those percentages are within a half a percent of accuracy so while that would cause issues, those issues wouldn't be as large as the differences between ISS and MGS in W1 and W2 being off [i.e. if W1 difference is actually 14,500 or 15,500 instead of 15,000 I think that would cause a far larger problem in the calculations accuracy]
149K for TFW1 All Platforms is from a flawed calculation based on MGS numbers
Code:
MGSW2 = 23400
TFW3 = MGSW2 - 100 = 23300
TFW2 = (TFW3)/(1-.42) = (23300)/(.58) = 40172
TFW1 = (TFW2)/(1-.73) = (40172)/(.27) = 148785
TFW1 All Platforms = 148785I'd like to know where MPL90 is getting the minecraft numbers from as it's probably a fairly accurate baseline
SwiftDeath
Member
So not that it matters but seeing how I already did it I'll post it regardless
Basically I ran the numbers 9 times, with 3 different possibilities of the Difference Between ISS and MGS
And it of course tells us squat.
Basically I ran the numbers 9 times, with 3 different possibilities of the Difference Between ISS and MGS
Code:
W1ISS-MGS -> 14500 | 15000 | 15500
W2ISS-MGS -> 2500| 3000| 3500
Game/Week Min Mean Max
TFW1 97829 148787 199745
TFW2 26414 40172 53931
TFW3 15320 23300 31280
ISSW1 57333 80000 102667
ISSW2 18920 26400 33880
MGSW1 42833 65000 87167
MGSW2 15420 23400 31380
PS4 UK LTD 515997 720000 924003
XB1 UK LTD 367837 559439 751041And it of course tells us squat.
Dat min is too low, unless people sold PS4s back to Sony
I'm gonna go with 70~75k for ISS week 1. It's the figure that makes the most sense with all the hints we got from various sources.
SwiftDeath
Member
Dat min is too low, unless people sold PS4s back to Sony
I'm gonna go with 70~75k for ISS week 1. It's the figure that makes the most sense with all the hints we got from various sources.
Yes that is correct of course. I simply was showing the results I got regardless of their accuracy
I would assume ISS W1 is likely 70K - 75K. Perhaps 70K sounds most reasonable
No idea on Titanfall as there's a lot of percentages involved, getting TF's numbers for just one week would solve most of the problems
Things we know:
MGSw1 > 54k
2xISSw1 > TFw1 > 125k
So let's go with ISSw1 at 72k, that's 57k for MGSw1, and <144k TFw1
ISSw2 = 23.76k
MGSw2 = 20.52k (so that's roughly a 3k diff with ISS)
TFw2 < 38.88k; TFw3 < 22.55k
Seems about right-ish. TF is a bit high that way but we only have a rather vague upper limit.
So what? PS4 has been badly supply constrained. They sell what they ship. MS has not been supply constrained, so when the sales jump up concurrent with the release of a game, we call that game a system seller.
It's astonishing to me that anyone would argue with this.
Do you even play the game?
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Thanks for even attempting this. No really. Great someone cares enough to give us more insight.
SwiftDeath
Member
You're welcome
Sigh I so wish we could draw more numbers from PAL sales threads instead of this circus
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
You're welcome
Sigh I so wish we could draw more numbers from PAL sales threads instead of this circus
Yeah, there's a reason the NPD's are so much more fun. Oh well.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
It is?
MS was leading UK & US by quite abit, this gen (so far) its losing both. Thats alot of market share to lose early and they will struggle to claw it back and even if they do it won't be by a huge amount. Stick WW into the equation and MS will lose alot of market share this gen. Thats as done deal as it gets this early.
Not sure if it's worth a new thread, but Nintendo France GM spoke to the press recently, and Gamekult sums his interview. Some interesting numbers for 2013:
MK8 is obviously their biggest game for the year, but he also speaks about Bayonetta 2 and SSB. No dates of course.
- Pokemon XY 620k
- Animal Crossing 380k
- DKCR3D 150k
- Luigi's Mansion 2 344k
- Professor Layton 6 160k
- 9k/week since beginning of 2014 for the 3DS family
- +20% for the WiiU compared to 2013
MK8 is obviously their biggest game for the year, but he also speaks about Bayonetta 2 and SSB. No dates of course.
Graphics Horse
Member
Nope. The difference between the percentages is assumed to be 3, but it could be anywhere between 2 or 4. ISS value is calculated by dividing a number by that number, so the scope for error is huge.
Range for ISS using Foshy's post as a guide, let me know if I've made a mistake.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=106397000&postcount=60
Infamous first week number is lower than this:
35.5x-33.5x = 35.5*15500 - 305000
x = 122625
And higher than this:
36.5x-32.5x = 36.5*14500 -295000
x = 58562
Says who? TF sold and is still selling systems no doubt.
unapersson
Member
You mentioned the PS4 supply constraints but left out the simultaneous XBox price cut. That alone would have given a boost in sales so Titanfall affect is kind of lost in the noise. Had they not done the price cut + free game it would have been much easier to say one way or the other.
Much like the release of MGS4 coincided with a PS3 price cut.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
I don't agree at all. Sony will lose WW share due to a decline in Japan and Nintendo are losing share everywhere. I think MS will increase their share this gen.
iceatcs
Junior Member
Every games are system seller. E.g. I bet at least one people bought PS4 because of Knack.
shadowsdarknes
Member
What are you basing this on?
Sony is thoroughly kicking ass worldwide and you somehow think MS is going to be the best selling console WW?
If the 360 couldn't do that to the PS3, then Xbone has no chance.
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
Oh boy..
Last gen. Wii: 100m, 360: 80m, PS3: 80m
Currently: WiiU: 6m, XBO: 4m, PS4: 7m
You do know what marketshare means right?
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
For a start the consoles haven't even been out 6 months. Marketshare is the % of the home console market, they don't need to 'beat' Sony.
I understand that the Nintendo market share is up for grabs for the other two consoles but I would be very suprised if Sony don't have the lion share of that and the even if the PS4 only sells 5m in its lifetime in Japan, it will be more than made up for in the gains from the UK and the US. Surely you can see this also or am I missing something.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
Do you know what it means? I think the XB1 will increase the 31% marketshare of the Xbox 360.
shadowsdarknes
Member
I misread. My mistake.
But this will be almost entirely due to Nintendo fucking up.
I think that is very wishful thinking.
Even though it is early days Sony are the clear front runners. The bad xbone PR is also still fresh in people's mind, more importantly, the casuals know about it as well. MS are losing their stronghold in the US/UK as well. In fact, hasn't the PS4 outsold the bone in the both markets at the moment?
iceatcs
Junior Member
But how do you think PS4 will be lesser than 31%?
So in a world with
XBO: 32M
Wii U: 18M
PS4: 50M
Should MS be happy? They have more than 31% market share...
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
Due to the decline of the Wii they don't need to outsell Sony. They don't even need to get anywhere near them. to increase their marketshare.
feint_ruled
Member
But if, due to the decline of the Wii, the market gets smaller...
And you think PS4 marketshare will be smaller than PS3 31%? What?
That seems very unlikely - i.e. MS will gain share relative to Sony share based on last gen.
Both XB1 and PS4 are doing okay with PS4 of course doing best but the big winner WW is more likely to be Sony:
- They will pick up way more of Nintendo share in Europe/ROW than MS will IMHO
- Current trends indicate Sony is going to end up with better marketshare in US/UK relative to Microsoft than last gen
- Sony is sure to get better share in Japan no matter how low the market is (don't forget Japan will drag on both but much worse on MS)
Hence overall while both MS and Sony can do well this gen particularly if its at the expense of Nintendo the current trends and general demographics of where each sell best indicates Sony is much better placed to gain the most overall vs MS.
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
And Sony will lose some of that 31%? Yeah right...
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
I don't, Sony will increase theirs as well.
No one would be happy with that, consoles would be about finished unless it was a short gen.
Yes it does but the share is still a % of that market.
shadowsdarknes
Member
If the market greatly contracts in size, then that's not good.
That's like winning by default. It's a victory, yes. But in context it's not that meaningful.
iceatcs
Junior Member
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
If the gen lasted the same amount of time as this one, no they wouldn't.
But they increase that 31% market share...
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
Yeah me too. Sure MS can increase marketshare, but that's because Nintendo is in a free fall. That Sony comment is just plain wrong, but he cleared it up.
You said in the above quote that Sony would lose WW share because of a Japan, this is what I was having a problem with. MS will gain some market share (my mistake in my first post) but relative to Sony (which is important to MS) it will be quite abit less than Sony gains.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
Yes they do, but their product would have sold less than the last one. Same as Wii U, 3DS, PS3 and Vita.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
All I meant was that the decline in Japan will hit Sony much harder than MS. They will easily make it up in other areas though.
Edit: Sorry double post.
Ok cool, thanks for clearing it up fella
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
The reason this is interesting to me is because I think if XB1 sales start to fall behind the 360 we will start to hear a lot about marketshare from them.
you have some weird goal posts... oh wait, they are not weird, just adjusted.