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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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B

Brinbe

Member
Looks like they're in it till the end in NC/VA/FL...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...c217744-1d2a-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_blog.html

The Romney campaign has been admirably proactive in spinning the media to cover the race on its terms, whether it comes to the supposed “surge” he continues to enjoy (the race has stabilized) or the Obama camp’s supposed pulling out of North Carolina (which Obama aides flatly deny). The Obama camp has been comparatively quiet when it comes to pushing its own version of the race.

That changed this morning during an Obama campaign conference call with reporters. Obama advisers made key points: Obama aides insist they are either tied or winning in all the battlegrounds — and that Romney has succeeded in locking up nothing. And they say the early vote continues to bode well for an Obama victory.

“Anybody who thinks those states are in the bag is half in the bag themselves,” top Obama adviser David Axelrod said of North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. “We have added millions to TV spending in each of these states. We are doubling down. We are not pulling back at all. We believe that Florida is an incredibly competitive state. North Carolina is a competitive state. Virginia is a competitive state. These are states Republicans were expecting to have wrapped up and they’re battling to hold on to them.”

The polls suggest Romney is significantly ahead in North Carolina and is winning by a smaller edge in Florida. But the averages also suggest the race may still be a dead heat in Virginia — something that’s gotten lost in coverage of the race. That matters, since Romney may have to win Ohio and Virginia to win, and he’s leading in neither.

“We know what we know, and they know what they know,” Axelrod added of Romney and his advisers. “We’ll know who’s bluffing and who isn’t in two weeks. And we’re looking forward to it.”

“Romney has not been able to knock us out of a single battleground,” added Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.
Messina highlighted early voting numbers to suggest Obama is on track to victory. Messina conceded that Romney is winning more “raw votes” than McCain did in 2008 early voting, but dismissed the importance of this, adding that the ”electorate is bigger this year, and our vote margins are, too.”

In Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, Messina said, Obama is winning from anywhere from 15 to 35 points among early voters. In Ohio, he argued, early voting is higher in counties that voted for Obama in 2008 than voted for McCain.

Of course, it’s still possible enthusiasm among minorities could flag significantly, which would enable a Romney victory. The Obama camp is hoping to preempt this by redoubling its efforts to bank as many votes before the election as possible.

More broadly, how much of this is bluff and bluster? After all, the race is tied nationally and Obama’s lead in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa remain slim to tenuous. But my sense from private conversations is that right or wrong, this is the genuine view of the race from Chicago.

*****************************************

UPDATE: I should add that all the polling averages show a national dead heat. And all show Obama leading in Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which is enough to put Obama over 270.
Click to expand...
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Heisenberg said:
I'm happy to be talked off a cliff - but the fact that all the individual polls seem to be trending for Romney as far as I can tell. If that keeps up for another 2 weeks . . .
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I'm curious what polls this guy was looking at? Am I too late?
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
apana said:
I don't really think voter fraud will be a big talking point in response to an Obama win. Voter fraud is a more general issue that Republicans will continue talking about regardless of what happens. Also if President Obama wins through the electoral college then it would be especially sweet to see Republicans complaining about that type of voting system and asking to move to the popular vote. It would make things even easier for Democrats.
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If Obama wins, voter fraud won't be the excuse. They'll attack early voting and try to shut that down.

Also, they won't advocate a popular vote system because the demographics are against them. Republicans don't want all the minorities in the South becoming a factor in presidential elections any time soon
 
T

thefro

Member
If Obama's campaign thinks the electorate is going to be bigger than in 2008 (and they should know), then these LV models on turnout might be pretty far off.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
Cloudy said:
If Obama wins, voter fraud won't be the excuse. They'll attack early voting and try to shut that down.

Also, they won't advocate a popular vote system because the demographics are against them. Republicans don't want all the minorities in the South becoming a factor in presidential elections any time soon
Click to expand...

But they'll attack early voting on voter fraud grounds. ~30% of the country is going to be convinced that Obama only won because of fraudulent early voting, and the proof is that the early voting margins were much more favorable for Obama than the election day margins.

And yes, the Republicans are never going to push for national popular vote. The election after that happens, California moves to mandatory voting, and that's game over.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Clevinger said:
Isn't the lean only like 1.5 points or something?
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in 2008 it was something like that, they were beyond terrible in 2010. Nate hasn't posted updated leans since 2008.

And rasmussen was average in 2008 as an overall pollster. They were only the top when looking at the last poll before the GE.
 
A

apana

Member
Gotchaye said:
But they'll attack early voting on voter fraud grounds. ~30% of the country is going to be convinced that Obama only won because of fraudulent early voting, and the proof is that the early voting margins were much more favorable for Obama than the election day margins.

And yes, the Republicans are never going to push for national popular vote. The election after that happens, California moves to mandatory voting, and that's game over.
Click to expand...

What is this?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
apana said:
What is this?
Click to expand...

Gotchaye is correctly observing that the biggest problem with national popular vote is that Los Angeles County would be the 8th largest state in America, so get out the vote in California would suddenly become the biggest priority of all time.
 
A

Averon

Member
Yeah, I fully expect the GOP to go after early voting hard whether or not Obama wins. The next Dem presidential nominee will most certainly try to replicate Obama's early voting strategy. Early voting becoming such an essential part of the Democratic strategy makes it a ripe target for the GOP.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I'm sitting here refreshing Gallup like I have nothing better to do. Obama win or loss, I can't wait for this to be over...
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
apana said:
What is this?
Click to expand...

The states can more or less run their elections as they see fit. States that can plausibly swing an election already take steps to try to make sure they're more important to politicians. The obvious strategy for liberal states under a national popular vote system is to attempt to encourage much greater voter participation, and the easy way is to go to mandatory voting, coupled with mailing absentee ballots with free postage to everybody. Conservative states have less reason to follow because conservatives have higher turnout as-is.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
I'm really liking Florida snapping back to being a near tie. I always thought of the big three battlegrounds - Ohio, Virginia, and Florida - that Florida was the most Republican-leaning, meaning it wasn't the tipping point state. But it sure would make a comfortable Obama victory if he takes it.
 
O

OmniOne

Member
HylianTom said:
New Florida poll, though I'm still not familiar with this polling outfit.. The Mellman Group?

47-47, Obama leads by 5% among early voters.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/110899369/12mem1022-f-FL-Presidential

Still.. if he's tied, it goes back to ground game. In these states with uber-high turnout, the difference between Registered Voters and Likely Voters is going to be smaaaaall.
Click to expand...

I think this is the firm that has been dead on in its polling of Nevada. I may be wrong.
 
B

Bel Marduk

Banned
HylianTom said:
New Florida poll, though I'm still not familiar with this polling outfit.. The Mellman Group?

47-47, Obama leads by 5% among early voters.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/110899369/12mem1022-f-FL-Presidential

Still.. if he's tied, it goes back to ground game. In these states with uber-high turnout, the difference between Registered Voters and Likely Voters is going to be smaaaaall.
Click to expand...

Early voting doesn't start until the 27th.. It sounds like maybe he leads among absentees, which usually go repub. Good news.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
eBay Huckster said:
Comedy option (and maybe in line with how their shit's been going in the past few cycles): Obama somehow in the lead
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Obama leading among RV is actually not impossible but unlikely. I would pay money* to see the 80-20 poll that puts Obama in the lead among LV.

* Seriously, Gallup, I'd pay money**.

** I don't have any money.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Hobbestetrician said:
Obama lower on Intrade than he was right before the debate last night.
Click to expand...
Yeah it's so strange. Obama had as good a night last night as he could have hoped for, and the national polls show marginal improvement for him so it doesn't make sense on the surface. But I think it comes down to the race being so tight on the surface, and investors just not willing to risk their huge bets and are getting out now.

EDIT: Oh nevermind, I wasn't even paying attention to the financial markets today. The Dow and other markets are down, that's the reason.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Ecotic said:
Yeah it's so strange. Obama had as good a night last night as he could have hoped for, and the national polls show marginal improvement for him so it doesn't make sense on the surface. But I think it comes down to the race being so tight on the surface, and investors just not willing to risk their huge bets and are getting out now.
Click to expand...

It's pretty much entirely because of Ras.
 
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