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Prediction: Will Breath of the Wild break 10million WW?
- Thread starter _Clash_
- Start date
frankie_baby
Member
They are most certainly beyond that already
Chezzymann
Member
I'm surprised at the lack of numbers, don't they usually say something by now?
Aztechnology
Member
I think you're.... Probably right.
Affeinvasion
Member
If it does it's going to take a while. It's pretty telling that the games on top of that list have all had re-releases.
InfiniteCombo
Banned
I stopped reading right about there.
Top 10 let's go
Vital Tundra
Member
I think it can.
DUFFMCWALIN
Member
I can totally see this.
Yoshimitsu126
Member
It definitely has a shot. I think Mario Odyssey will get 10 million, though. The hype, nostalgia, and brand awareness for Mario is pretty big right now.
DecoReturns
Member
That trailer is almost at 20 million. Who keeps watching it lol
Anyways, yeah Mario Kart and Mario Odyssey is going to sell big
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Ocarina's "11.42 million" is a pretty irrelevant number, because a huge chunk of that is going to be overlap. So Twilight Princess is going to be the game to look at, as the overlap is going to be pretty slim and the console split is most analogous to Wii U/Switch. Then the question becomes more "Will Breath of the Wild be the best selling Zelda ever", to which I say... maybe? I'm not going to say it's surefire, since ~9 million+ units is a lot no matter who you slice it, but the momentum behind Breath of the Wild seems so much greater than that of Twilight Princess, the game is widely regarded to be one of the best - if not the best of all time (a distinction Twilight Princess didn't quite have even at its highest point), and it seemingly has broader appeal. But then the odds of the Switch reaching Wii levels of success are slim-to-none and it's difficult to tell just how much that massive 100 million unit install base contributed.
I think it's got the best chance. Breath of the Wild is in rare air critically and word of mouth, and it will continue to be a (the) marquee Switch title for the entire year. Considering the story expansion DLC this Q4, during the Switch's first holiday, and I think it's going to perform incredibly well this year.
Twilight Princess couldn't, even with the Wii launch, but I would argue it was distant to Wii Sports in the minds of the mass audience.
Twilight Princess couldn't, even with the Wii launch, but I would argue it was distant to Wii Sports in the minds of the mass audience.
Doubt it. 3D console Marios sell a fraction of what the 2D ones sell.
Check out the Galaxy and 3D World sales versus the 2D console and handheld games. It's bizarre.
DecoReturns
Member
Cert.in.Death
Member
Nah, I see it topping out somewhere between 5m-7m lifetime. People aren't buying Wii Us for it and I'm bearish about where the Switch is going.
It will do more than I'm guessing if the game ever appears on other devices.
It will do more than I'm guessing if the game ever appears on other devices.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Mario Galaxy hit nearly 13 million and Mario 64 hit nearly 12, so I think 10 million is at the very least plausible for Odyssey.
Not impossible but not guaranteed. I guess it'll really depend on how well the Switch continues to sell and what sort of legs BotW can show.
Traditionally Zelda games haven't been super leggy the in the same way other Nintendo franchises like Mario and Pokemon have, but BotW does have the odds stacked in it's favour to exceed the series norm. It's a launch title, on a system with strong core appeal, releasing in a market climate where it's easier than ever for big AAA releases to move millions of units. But at the same time 10m units is still a very tall order, so I guess we'll see.
Traditionally Zelda games haven't been super leggy the in the same way other Nintendo franchises like Mario and Pokemon have, but BotW does have the odds stacked in it's favour to exceed the series norm. It's a launch title, on a system with strong core appeal, releasing in a market climate where it's easier than ever for big AAA releases to move millions of units. But at the same time 10m units is still a very tall order, so I guess we'll see.
LordOcidax
Member
Yes. Put me on that list.
Chezzymann
Member
Yeah just depends on switch sales. If its a 40-50 million machine then its got a good shot, but if it ends up doing 20-30 its gonna be hard.
Lord Azrael
Member
I highly highly doubt it.
Also I wouldn't say it's Nintendo's most important release at all.
Also I wouldn't say it's Nintendo's most important release at all.
Nah
Switch has sold like what 3 million?
So 3 million copies of Zelda on Switch + Wii u version probably sold like less than 1 million due to how much they probably undershipped that version.
Even when the Wii u sold like 13 million, it's biggest selling game Mario kart 8 only sold like 8 million units.
Switch has sold like what 3 million?
So 3 million copies of Zelda on Switch + Wii u version probably sold like less than 1 million due to how much they probably undershipped that version.
Even when the Wii u sold like 13 million, it's biggest selling game Mario kart 8 only sold like 8 million units.
SatoAilDarko
Member
I see 0.5-1 million on Wii U and 5-7 million on Switch.
I mean Link Between Worlds was also heralded and while a full 3D Zelda has more appeal and it being heralded as game of the generation increases those numbers but not to 3 times as much. I see Switch even if very successful as closer to 3DS sales than those of Wii or DS.
I mean Link Between Worlds was also heralded and while a full 3D Zelda has more appeal and it being heralded as game of the generation increases those numbers but not to 3 times as much. I see Switch even if very successful as closer to 3DS sales than those of Wii or DS.
frankie_baby
Member
The sheer length of the game and the promise of dlc later should keep a much higher proportion of copies out of the second hand market than there were for twilight princess which will force more people to buy new
archreaper93
Member
By the end of the Switch's life? I think so.
Do we have any idea what it's at right now?
Do we have any idea what it's at right now?
Sammy Samusu
Member
No.
Ricerocket
Member
That would depend on Switch sales. It can do it barring no other competing game comes out of that quality that would make consumers forget the game.
Look at GTA V. It's constantly sellng well because new PS4/X1 users are buying that game. It's the goto game for this gen but I don't think Zelda is there yet because Zelda BOTW is the only Switch game in reality to get now.
Look at GTA V. It's constantly sellng well because new PS4/X1 users are buying that game. It's the goto game for this gen but I don't think Zelda is there yet because Zelda BOTW is the only Switch game in reality to get now.
Twilight Princess was long as fuck too. I remember my first play through being like 73 hours.
People don't finish games anyway so I'm not sure how that affects the used game market. Interesting thought though....
Pretty much this
frankie_baby
Member
Switch is probably currently closer to 2.5 million meaning zelda on switch is probably somewhere between 2 and 2.25 million
Even so though and you saying zelda wont sell any more?
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
So...
Are you assuming that what, the Switch will never sell any more units, or that only the first 3 million Switch owners will be able to buy Zelda? I don't get this post.
ArchedThunder
Banned
I'm gonna say 7.5 million.
ElMexiMerican
Member
I think I'm more in the 6-7 mil camp. I hope it does even more, but I think realistically that is where its sales will end up.
frankie_baby
Member
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
But Breath of the Wild isn't Twilight Princess.
It's gotten far higher praise than Twilight Princess ever did, it's selling faster than Twilight Princess did (Reggie said it's their fastest selling launch game ever, which would include TP on Wii), it's a far fresher experience (Twilight Princess was essentially the 4th "Ocarina of Time"-style game, whereas this the beginning of a whole new paradigm for the franchise), and it appears to have broader appeal among those who weren't already franchise fans.
The Wii's enormous install base is definitely a factor, but I wouldn't claim it's the sole one and write off the chances entirely.
Skittzo0413
Member
Yeah I think it will, and I don't think it'll take very long either. Maybe 3 years?
The reception this game has gotten is pretty incredible, and it's easily cemented itself as the must buy game to get on Switch. If Nintendo's estimates of 18 million Switches by April 2018 pan out (which I find fairly unlikely but possible) then I expect BotW to be close to 50% of that if not more. Almost definitely 10m by 2020 in my opinion.
The reception this game has gotten is pretty incredible, and it's easily cemented itself as the must buy game to get on Switch. If Nintendo's estimates of 18 million Switches by April 2018 pan out (which I find fairly unlikely but possible) then I expect BotW to be close to 50% of that if not more. Almost definitely 10m by 2020 in my opinion.
Absolutely. But if gamers as a whole don't finish games, what's the difference between 70 and 100 hours
Edit: in terms of affecting the second hand market
phantasmic_glaive
Member
If MARIO can't hit 10 mil then Zelda definitely won't lol.
If it does have a chance to hit 10 million, it has until Mario comes out. After that, who knows what'll push switches out the door. Lifetime I can see it close, but nothing right away.. and most certainly not Nintendos most important game. Does MK not exist?!
D.Lo
Member
I have tried to shut my mouth about CEMU stuff, but belief that progress of an emulator will lead to millions of people buying the Wii U game to play on it is... ill-founded.