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Prediction: Will Breath of the Wild break 10million WW?
- Thread starter _Clash_
- Start date
NPD in a week, right?
I think there is a revisionist view of Twilight Princess going on here. At launch the reception was basically the same as BOTW in enthusiasm. More of "it's an evolution not revolution" praise though.
Twilight Princess fucking delivered in the first few months. The love was everywhere. The hate started to flow later.
In contrast, it felt like hype for Skyward Sword collapsed as soon as people actually played the game lol
Spring-Loaded
Member
I too was once a non-believer like you. That is, until I saw the light of CEMU's blessing
This isn't just me evangelizing this emulator every change I get, or anything. No sir
Of any Zelda titles I think it had the highest chance.
True the Wii launched with TP, it wasn't the game to get for the system, Wii Sports was. With the Switch Zelda seems to be THE game to get for the system and it'll be like that until around November when Mario drops.
The sales will get a little hurt with Mario Kart and Splatoon coming, plus who knows what else with E3 coming. But I think it had a good chance. We'll see a bundle around Christmas likely (though not guaranteed) and digital sales will help push even more.
Also, this is just a hypothesis.
True the Wii launched with TP, it wasn't the game to get for the system, Wii Sports was. With the Switch Zelda seems to be THE game to get for the system and it'll be like that until around November when Mario drops.
The sales will get a little hurt with Mario Kart and Splatoon coming, plus who knows what else with E3 coming. But I think it had a good chance. We'll see a bundle around Christmas likely (though not guaranteed) and digital sales will help push even more.
Also, this is just a hypothesis.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Nothing concrete. We know it's their fastest selling launch game though, so that's something to work with, if you go back and look at their historical numbers.
Only 8 million? Breaking 8 million in one console is ridiculously hard, of course Wikipedia is not serious at all but if for one second we believe their numbers MK8 would be the fifth best selling title on the PS2, and thats a 150 million console.
Jawmuncher
Member
Nope.
Just because.
Just because.
dragonflys545
Member
I mean people really had no choice when it comes to choosing what to buy for the switch launch... If they had released MK8D, Splatoon and Arms along with this, I can see it not doing as well. Just look at Knack even that sold millions... Right?
I don't know about 8M being #5 on PS2, but both that and PS1 didn't have the sorts of megasellers we saw on later consoles. I think that Super Mario 64 was actually the best selling game of the PS1 generation, despite the PS1 selling 3x as many units as the N64. Playstation tastes were pretty diverse.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
kswis, you gonna become the master of videogame stats now as well?
Joke post? Because Knack didn't even sell million singular as far as can tell, lol.
Joke post? Because Knack didn't even sell million singular as far as can tell, lol.
I feel this will basically be determined by how the Switch does over the next 3-5 years.
Games do much better these days when they're successful, and Breath of the Wild puts Zelda back in the category where it does best ("industry leading action/adventure game with solid production values"), but you ultimately still need to move a lot of Switches to make something like this happen.
Maybe at 45-50 million Switches sold it would start looking possible? I suspect they won't bundle it as a standard pack-in for a year long period - since they're likely to prefer packing in a game like Mario Kart instead - which would be pretty important for doing that on less.
Games do much better these days when they're successful, and Breath of the Wild puts Zelda back in the category where it does best ("industry leading action/adventure game with solid production values"), but you ultimately still need to move a lot of Switches to make something like this happen.
Maybe at 45-50 million Switches sold it would start looking possible? I suspect they won't bundle it as a standard pack-in for a year long period - since they're likely to prefer packing in a game like Mario Kart instead - which would be pretty important for doing that on less.
Nah. I don't even rank on this side.
Vault Dweller 111
Member
I feel like for the next 5 or so years when you pick up a Switch there will be a high attach rate of grabbing Zelda to go with it. So, maybe? It definitely deserves it.
I think it really depends on whether the game enters the cultural mindspace that a game like Super Mario 64 entered. When you were getting an N64, there were basically 3 games that were essential:
So far, BOTW has a great attach rate but it's going to need to maintain a fairly high rate as newer games come out and the best way to ensure it does that is to become that sort of gaming milestone, IMO. I think it's done the harder part (meeting and exceeding some very high expectations for most of the gaming community and inviting discussion about it's milestone qualities); assuming that the Switch continues to sell, I think it has a real chance.
- Super Mario 64
- Mario Kart 64
- Goldeneye
So far, BOTW has a great attach rate but it's going to need to maintain a fairly high rate as newer games come out and the best way to ensure it does that is to become that sort of gaming milestone, IMO. I think it's done the harder part (meeting and exceeding some very high expectations for most of the gaming community and inviting discussion about it's milestone qualities); assuming that the Switch continues to sell, I think it has a real chance.
Ocarina of Time was a landmark game. The first 3D Zelda, and arguably the best game of that generation (it certainly was the best reviewed). Twilight Princess was a very popular entry, but it didn't have either of those things going for it, and it was the fourth game in the series to use the general OOT blueprint.
I can see an argument that Breath of the Wild is closer to OOT than anything that has come between the two games. Open world (or air if you are Nintendo) games are also really popular. We'll see if that can translate to >7.5M LTD. If we get to that point, we can start talking about 10M.
As awesome as a BotW pack would be, I fully expect Mario Kart 8 Deluxe to be the holiday pick.
Chill Penguin
Member
It's possible, it has some favorable conditions going for it. Early in the switch's life, off the charts reviews and word of mouth, it's open world which is very popular style with the masses, and the switch itself is primed to be a smashing success. If I had to guess I'd say it's going to do somewhere between 7 and 10 million, but 11 or 12 million wouldn't totally surprise me, the game and associated hype is that strong.
NipplesAndToes23
Member
Since it's just been a month there isn't any data on how much Breath of the Wild has sold is there?
JoeyJungle
Banned
Probably, didn't it have something like a 90% attach ratio? I assume it's gonna remain pretty damn high throughout the life of the console, and probably stay above 50% until the end of next year.
I think it's possible but I see it selling 6-8 million. What it has in it's favor is the fact that it's making Zelda relevant in a way it hasn't been in a long time. It's getting insane amounts of praise with many critics talking about how it's evolved open world games. When TP launched on the wii it had huge hype but it was the fourth game in the series to use that style and it was the start of people wanting Zelda to do something new. Now the series feels fresh again and it's the big must have game at the launch of the switch and despite not being made from the ground up for switch I still think it'll be one of those games everyone has to get when they buy a switch.
i don't get why people discount OoT's combined sales but not TP's combined numbers. a lot of people double dipped for TP too (i got both versions because GC controls better) and a lot of people who got OoT3D didn't have the original.
it's a fact OoT is the top Zelda game in both single SKU and combined SKU rankings. no amount of spinning can change this. BotW is gonna have the same "issue" if the Switch version alone doesn't top 10 million and only gets there with the Wii U version's sales.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Because OoT 3D was a remaster released a decade and a half later and TP Wii and GCN are more or less the same thing beyond input device, with a release date only a month apart. Its a fundamentally different scenario, and neither is a particularly valid comparison with the other.
Combining OoT with OoT 3D is like combining Gold and Silver with the DS remakes. It's nonsensical and doesn't really tell you much. It just dilutes the data and inflates the numbers. Whereas combining the two versions of TP is like looking at any other multi-platform title ever. Sure, there's SOME overlap, but you can't honestly believe it's the same.
And for what it's worth, I wouldn't include TP HD with TP Wii/GC either, or Wind Waker HD with Wind Waker for that matter.
Briefing is on thursday in 3 weeks
On that note, the Ocarina of Time 3D number isn't even right. It was at 4.52M before more Pokemon bumped it off Nintendo's 3DS best seller list.
EDIT: NVM. I see that the OP is using a source from 2015, so the numbers are just a bit out of date.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Just "fastest selling launch game ever" for Nintendo.
We have a few regions. The Japanese total is around 380k without digital.
Tavernacle12
Member
If the Switch takes off considerably but also doesn't have an equivalent killer app for awhile I think it can get there. Other than Skyrim for now, there's not really anything else coming that fills the same niche, and with Zelda being a GOTY if not GOAT contender it'll have long legs. Plus they can do a deluxe edition in 2018 with the DLC included if they want to.
killatopak
Member
Nope.
Switch isn't even 10m and while the game will have legs, it depends if the games in the future are better than Zelda. If not then more people will buy Zelda.
Switch isn't even 10m and while the game will have legs, it depends if the games in the future are better than Zelda. If not then more people will buy Zelda.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Why does it matter that the Switch isn't at 10 million at this very moment? This is the second or third remark like this in the thread. Like, what does that even mean? No one who buys a Switch in the future will buy Zelda? The last Switch ever has been sold? Wii Sports will never sell 10 million because the Wii sold 3 million in 1.5 months? What? lol
We aren't getting a sequel for at least 3 years.
no version should be combined imo. the grey areas and exceptions that come with the combinations make it messy. you can't exclude some and combine others because at the end of the day, it's the same game at its core and sold based on that. OoT 3D, the HD remasters or the other various ports didn't become magically new games when they were ported.
also, how does Nintendo report TP? do they combine sales together or split them?
for this reason alone, i'd like BotW to beat all past games combined with just the Switch version so that this problem can die off but 11.4 million is a tall order to meet.
potatohead
Member
Depends on switch sales since wiiu is clearly far out of the picture already
killatopak
Member
Lol at you as well for ignoring the rest of the post. Sone people here can't take anything negative. Zzz
Trivially if enough consoles sell. But we'll never know about it because it'll do it with a majority of digital sales over lifetime and digital sales from Wii U which we also don't know.
Nintendo lets their big franchises sit on latest installment for 3-5 years so it will have plenty of time to have a long tail instead of assassin's creed of dutying it up with halved sales yearly
Nintendo lets their big franchises sit on latest installment for 3-5 years so it will have plenty of time to have a long tail instead of assassin's creed of dutying it up with halved sales yearly
You don't think there is a difference between multiplats and decade later remakes? Combining concurrent or near-concurrent multiplat LTDs is standard operating procedure. However, when we are talking about Mario 3 sales, we don't tack on Mario All-stars and Super Mario Bros Advance 4.