Portugeezer
Member
With the years of bundles to come, it's possible.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Prediction: Will Breath of the Wild break 10million WW?
- Thread starter _Clash_
- Start date
Pretty safe bet, considering it will already be at 5 millions after 2,5 months, on an out of stock system.
Edit: nope, didn't expect that big HW production issues.
MisterGrey3000
Member
Ooookay...
You know...when folks say dumb stuff like this it just makes them sound like disillusioned, whiney babies desperately searching for vindication in a world where people won't stop liking what they don't like.
I'd say it has a 50/50 chance right now of hitting it. Right now Switch hype is still going strong, and it's the best reviewed game in years, with an incredible word of mouth. Whether or not it gets there depends almost entirely on the Switch itself. Zelda has always done better in the west, and it really shows here with a 100% attach rate in the US, which it can't be said enough, is fucking ridiculous!
If Retro Studios has a game out before Christmas, aimed at a similar audience (most obvious choice being Metroid or a new IP), I think it'll get more westerners to buy the system who wouldn't have otherwise for "just one game". This, combined with the big DLC planned around the holiday season, would help get it over the line.
If Retro Studios has a game out before Christmas, aimed at a similar audience (most obvious choice being Metroid or a new IP), I think it'll get more westerners to buy the system who wouldn't have otherwise for "just one game". This, combined with the big DLC planned around the holiday season, would help get it over the line.
thestopsign
Member
I think it will sell well the Switch's entire lifespan so I can imagine it will do close to 10 million. It will need to get 5+ million in the US though.
TP wasn't as good of a game though. BotW is the right game for the time. Open world is trendy and BotW is arguably the best game in the genre right now.
TP was more of an anachronism in its respective era (not that it is not a good game in its own right). It also just wasn't as good as BotW in general.
People bought the Wii for Wii Sports. People buy a Switch for Zelda.
? What do you mean?
I thought Twilight Princess was widely seen amongst the Zelda fanbase (and gaming in general) as good but not great. I'm not saying its a bad game, but just not GOAT level. Is that not true?
OrbitalBeard
Member
The Zelda community is full of very vocal people who skew perception for various entries in the franchise. TP sold over 8 million copies and its HD remake was a pretty big success. It's widely considered to be a very good game.
BotW has eclipsed it though, big time. It appeals to a much larger audience.
Skittzo0413
Member
The biggest issue with TP wasn't its quality IMO, it was the fact that people bought the console for Wii Sports and not for Zelda. It's the opposite now with the Switch, so the comparison to TP doesn't really work as well.
That is true, and true of any fanbase. But the remaster is sitting at, what, 86? That seems like a more accurate score, and I would say most fans would agree.
Now compare that to BOTW. Saying BOTW wont hit 10million because a notably worse game didn't hit 10m seems a bit silly.
kuhnbeast91
Member
I do believe that BOTW can sell 10 million units especially when you add the wiiu versions sales to it. The attach rate will continue to be high all through 2017 and depending on how well the DLC is received it could sell even more than 10 million.
Mario says, "Mama Mia!"
OrbitalBeard
Member
It's not that silly. Quality isn't the only factor in how successful a game can be. There are other things to consider, such as install base and overall health of a platform.
THAT being said, I said at the very start of this thread that BotW has the potential to hit 10 million.
Mario Kart 8 will slow down sales some, as will Splatoon later in the year. BotW is the default pick up with a Switch right now, even if you arent really interested in Zelda. Japan especially will start to diverge as more options are available.
I think that 10M can happen but I dont see it there until some point in 2019.
Edit: also, you guys should remember that Nintendo's reported numbers are shipped + digital.
I think that 10M can happen but I dont see it there until some point in 2019.
Edit: also, you guys should remember that Nintendo's reported numbers are shipped + digital.
PSFan
Member
I think TP is a great game and a great Zelda game. I like it much more than BOTW, that's for sure.
I bought a Wii at launch for TP, I didn't even know what Wii Sports really was at the time.
You're the exception.
Vital Tundra
Member
After those numbers from their earnings, yes I think it will.
Skittzo0413
Member
Obviously I didn't mean that nobody bought a Wii for TP, just that it wasn't nearly as common as people buying it for Wii Sports. The TP attach rate shows this quite clearly.
EDIT:
Do you have a source for that? I remember it being much lower, though I could be remembering the first year numbers rather than the first two month numbers.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Most launch buyers grabbed the system for TP. But by the end of 2006, it wasn't the reason people were going crazy for the console.
The Dec 2006 tie in rate was actually slightly better than the Nov 2006 tie in rate. But yes, Wii Sports and Wii Play became the big story in 2007.
The same is going to be the case with BotW and the Switch. Something else will grab the zetgeist during the next year or so as the Switch's audience expands. I do think that BotW will hold out better proportionally, but I very much doubt we will be seeing 50% tie in rates with new consoles by fall (if Switch sales remain healthy and BotW isnt the holiday pack-in).
GameStop has sold more copies of Zelda than Switch console (may be combined SKU)
http://www.express.co.uk/entertainm...th-of-the-Wild-sales-Gamestop-Nintendo-Switch
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidt...s-its-most-bizarre-sales-streak/#2e1dfd334e09
http://www.express.co.uk/entertainm...th-of-the-Wild-sales-Gamestop-Nintendo-Switch
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidt...s-its-most-bizarre-sales-streak/#2e1dfd334e09
Head.spawn
Junior Member
I predict 8 million sold by the time the console hits 4 million.
Huge Succeeded
Banned
It's a certainty as far as I'm concerned.
Smiles and Cries
Member
I think the legs on this game will be helped by the new story DLC but 10 million is still a huge target
JershJopstin
Banned
It's just the Switch SKUs, according to the article. Note that that's still 3 SKUs.
boiled goose
good with gravy
It's possible.
Unlike TP it is on a system that appeals to both casual and core audiences. To portable and home console audiences
It's also transformative gameplay wise like oot. People are talking about it, making videos about it, etc . That is buzz recent Zelda games haven't had.
Oot would have sold more on a larger userbase. Switch can easily outsell the n64.
Unlike TP it is on a system that appeals to both casual and core audiences. To portable and home console audiences
It's also transformative gameplay wise like oot. People are talking about it, making videos about it, etc . That is buzz recent Zelda games haven't had.
Oot would have sold more on a larger userbase. Switch can easily outsell the n64.
10 million is tough, Twilight Princess was also in the same situation and it only got 8 million (two console audiences to buy it)
If the Switch keeps up it's momentum with sales and the Breath Of The Wild hype and 50 billion youtube videos about it continue, it could very well be one of those games.
If the Switch keeps up it's momentum with sales and the Breath Of The Wild hype and 50 billion youtube videos about it continue, it could very well be one of those games.
I'd bet on it hitting 10m at this point.
Well they're doing a pretty good job of that so far
eXistor
Member
No way, I've said this before, but I think it'll make 6 million. 7 tops. Great numbers of course, but the hype and praise for the game isn't anything we've not seen before, even within the series.
/edit: oh lol, I literally have said that, I'm even quoted at the top. Didn't realise it's an old thread.
/edit: oh lol, I literally have said that, I'm even quoted at the top
. Didn't realise it's an old thread.OriginalPoe
Banned
It has a significant challenge of a low number of total Wii U consoles and a shortage of Switch consoles.
I think eventually Nintendo will sell 10M+ copies of BOTW looking at the last major 3D Zelda that was a good game (TP).
I think eventually Nintendo will sell 10M+ copies of BOTW looking at the last major 3D Zelda that was a good game (TP).
... The game is over 5 million by now. And that's after only 4 months. It'LL pass 6 million by next month (remember Wii U SKU will be higher than the original 1.08 million as well), and 7 million is dead and buried before the year's end imo.No way, I've said this before, but I think it'll make 6 million. 7 tops. Great numbers of course, but the hype and praise for the game isn't anything we've not seen before, even within the series.
/edit: oh lol, I literally have said that, I'm even quoted at the top
higgsboson1997
Member
No way, I've said this before, but I think it'll make 6 million. 7 tops. Great numbers of course, but the hype and praise for the game isn't anything we've not seen before, even within the series.
/edit: oh lol, I literally have said that, I'm even quoted at the top
We know the game has already sold at least 5 million. I doubt it will stop selling so soon to just end up at 6-7 million. Holidays and future bundles will definitely give it a boost imo.
RespectThySole
Member
I think it will definitely reach 10 million. Already halfway there.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
I doubt that. Zelda games don't usually have the legs of Mario etc I think?
It's abundantly clear now with the data we have that it will absolutely hit 10 million sold worldwide.
It has hit 5 million in 4 months and still has an attach rate with Switch of 80%+ and will continue to sell well into 2018 with a long tail of sales for the life of the Switch. At this point the question should be can it hit 15 million? That question is much harder to answer.
It has hit 5 million in 4 months and still has an attach rate with Switch of 80%+ and will continue to sell well into 2018 with a long tail of sales for the life of the Switch. At this point the question should be can it hit 15 million? That question is much harder to answer.
CaviarMeths
Member
I'm always worried that I posted some crap in a necro'd sales prediction thread but this time
#CavWasRight
#CavWasRight