this is where it'll be at before Christmas IMO
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Prediction: Will Breath of the Wild break 10million WW?
- Thread starter _Clash_
- Start date
this is where it'll be at before Christmas IMO
It has about 55% attach rate on 700k hardware so far.
Other software like 1-2 switch and bomberman is also doing well. And mario kart will explode this week.
WaterAstro
Member
No. Just thinking logically, being a launch game doesn't help. No game has 100% attach rate unless it was absolutely free, and the interest will drop off.
clay_ghost
Member
No it will be near or at around 8 M at most. Length of the game and Season pass will increase its lifespan and stop or delay some copies from getting into the 2nd hand.
Happy to be wrong.
Happy to be wrong.
SolicitorPirate
Member
Speaking as someone with complete apathy towards the Zelda series, I will be very surprised if BotW fails to hit 10m in its lifetime. Everything I've seen and heard about this game suggests it's going to be one of the Switch's strongest evergreen titles. The kind of game anyone who buys a Switch will get along with the console, even years after its release.
Notor!ousG
Member
If they make sure their additional story campaign and dungeon is worth while, I can see the game having some serious legs. Maybe release a GOTY edition in a year or two.
CaviarMeths
Member
Estimates of 6-7m are absurd. It won't even need the holiday season to get there.
Across Switch and Wii U, it's possible. The game will continue to be talked about as DLC gets released, and it will likely win some awards later this year/early next year as well. Plus they can do a GOTY edition/Nintendo Selects later down the line and increase sales that way. Eventually I could see it reach 10, but if it does, it'll take some time.
killatopak
Member
At it's current rate, it won't.
Hypothetically if the game got released when there were more units in the wild, it was possible to reach it.
Hypothetically if the game got released when there were more units in the wild, it was possible to reach it.
It can at least double where it is now I think as it will be having great attachrates for new Switch owners (even if it drops from >90 % in the west to a more reasonable 30% that's still 3 million extra this fy).
So 8 million for sure, but 10 million is certainly possible. If they nail the DLC and it creates new buzz at the end of the year they'll get there imo.
So 8 million for sure, but 10 million is certainly possible. If they nail the DLC and it creates new buzz at the end of the year they'll get there imo.
By selling almost 3 million in it's first month and another million in the 3 weeks after that it won't?
ShadowFox08
Member
teh attachment rate is ridiciously high. I'd be surprised if it didn't top 10 million for both switch and wii u combined for life time sales.
killatopak
Member
I keep reading to release a goty edition but did nintendo ever release a lot of goty edition games if any at all?
One just released today
Really though, NSMBU was later released with Super Luigi U included, and there were 3DS bundles that included a version of NSMB2 with all the DLC.
lol People still doubling down on estimates of 7M after we just learned they've shipped almost 4M in the first month, with more copies sold on the Switch than actual systems.
We haven't even gotten the DLC packs, bundles, and the holidays. It could definitely hit 10M lifetime, if not in the first 9 months.
We haven't even gotten the DLC packs, bundles, and the holidays. It could definitely hit 10M lifetime, if not in the first 9 months.
Majukun
Member
they almost had 4 mln by the end of march
SporeCrawler
Member
I doubt it. TP numbers are possible though
That doesn't make sense. It's already > 4 million
It should be over 5 million before the first DLC launches this summer.
FlutterPuffs
Member
Lifetime? There's a chance. If the Switch gets supported and manages to break the 15 million units barrier.
SporeCrawler
Member
I dont know about "not as good". TP is excellent and has better dungeons. BotW has a better overworld, better gameplay variation and general characters ntent
At the time TP was the highest rated current gen game for a few years
It seems Zelda figures were life to date, I read that on gamesindustry.biz.
CaviarMeths
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if it's already at 5m. It was at 3.84m as of March 31.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html
This is just the Switch version, but it's as of March 31. With Wii U sales, you get the reported 3.84m figure.
SporeCrawler
Member
In a lineup where mario kart exists zelda has no chance to be the strongest evergreen title
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
You can't group Ocarina of Time and Ocarina of Time 3D as the same sku. You just can't!
Yeah I just read that. Didn't realise, I completely forgot about WiiU and thought it was sitting at 3 Mil.
In which case I revise my sentiment 10 and 7 respectively.
Aldric
Member
lt's not about being better or worse. TP appealed to Zelda fans first and foremost, especially OoT fans, while as Kirishima said BotW seems to attract new players to the franchise.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Also remember the Wii wave was led by non games who were excited about Wii sports.
The switch, right now, seems to have hit a nerve with lapsed Nintendo fans, and other gamers who like the idea of a portable home console. A much better install base for Zelda to sell to. The 100% attach rate is evidence of that
Good to know, so the 5M by may should not be far off.
LordOcidax
Member
Yes. By end of this year is going to be around 7-8M. Next year Nintendo is going to bundle Zelda with the Switch.
frankie_baby
Member
The sheer length of the game and the promise of DLC to come should result in less 2nd hand copies floating around tgan prior zelda games
Not sure, we shall see. The last time a Zelda title was considered such a big breakthrough was when Ocarina of Time was released which sold like 7 millions.
Breath of the Wild has two advantages though:
- It released on the console's launch so I expect it to be relevant for more years.
- Switch will most probably have a much better life and a userbase at least 2x that of Nintendo 64 (32m consoles sold) eventually.
I think it's possible but not very easy imo.
Breath of the Wild has two advantages though:
- It released on the console's launch so I expect it to be relevant for more years.
- Switch will most probably have a much better life and a userbase at least 2x that of Nintendo 64 (32m consoles sold) eventually.
I think it's possible but not very easy imo.
Skittzo0413
Member
Yeah, this is what I'm thinking too. People bought the Wii for Wii Sports, and some others also picked up Twilight Princess. With the Switch, people are buying it mainly for BotW, not anything else. That may start changing as MK8DX, ARMS and Splatoon 2 come out, but not all that much.
I think Nintendo said the attach rate was about 90% worldwide, so it'll be interesting to see if it remains that high all year.
MisterGrey3000
Member
I'd be incredibly surprised if it did considering that Twilight Princess- a critically acclaimed game with a 95+ on metacritic and multiple GOTY awards- couldn't reach 10 mill LTD on the mega successful Wii, and Zelda is unpopular with Japanese audiences.
I think a safe bet is somewhere between 5-7 million, it'll definitely do quite well that's for sure.
I feel like they should always try to get a Zelda out for launch because it's a front-loaded core aimed series that benefits from all the excitement and hullabaloo of a new machine. Nintendo really shouldn't be pulling A Majora's Mask/Skyward Sword anymore, where they put out a fantastic AAA entry in the franchise on a system that's basically rotting in its coffin.
I think a safe bet is somewhere between 5-7 million, it'll definitely do quite well that's for sure.
I feel like they should always try to get a Zelda out for launch because it's a front-loaded core aimed series that benefits from all the excitement and hullabaloo of a new machine. Nintendo really shouldn't be pulling A Majora's Mask/Skyward Sword anymore, where they put out a fantastic AAA entry in the franchise on a system that's basically rotting in its coffin.
Yeah but to be honest Twilight Princess didn't deserve that metacritic, and the fans and general public were quick to spot that. With Breath of the Wild it's loved by everyone (and by everyone I mean everyone except me). Word of mouth is exceptional and that really does have an impact on the tail.
BotW had more acclaim and doesn't have Wii Sports to share the spotlight, so your comparison to TP doesn't make much sense.
If I'm not mistaken Zelda BOTW is about to outsell the LTD of Twilight Princess in it's third month in Japan, selling to about 40-50% of new Switch owners every week constantly (~20.000/week)
Twilight Princess Wii (jpn) 554.109
Twilight Princess ngc (jpn) 70.000
BOTW NSW (jpn) 395.655
BOTW WIIU (jpn) 104.689
+ ~40.000 digital (march only, nsw+wiiu)