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[Creamium]

I think it can, because of a combination of factors. A: It's a highly anticipated + acclaimed Zelda game at launch, when there's not much else in the line-up. That's the obvious pull. B: It's not just another Zelda game. It's a departure from the series' template, in the popular open world format. It encourages experimentation and it seems to have great word of mouth because of that. It also appeals to people who didn't play Zelda games before.

BotW has reached every Zelda fan, but also expanded its fanbase by introducing new elements and being very friendly to newcomers. I can see this game doing very well through the years. Even if you only get a Switch later, people will always want to get Zelda for it.

 

[Wedzi]

Splatoon 2 says hi

I don't know how I forgot about that game. There's a good chance it might actually outsell BotW lifetime if it's Wii U sales are any indication.

 

[Blarg]

All I know is that my gut says maybe.

 

[Lifeline]

You're predicting 100 percent attach for a non-bundle, lifetime, huh? Bold strategy cotton.

I'm saying by the time Zelda stops being a must buy/only buy for the Switch, it will become bundled. It will be a while till sales dry up for Zelda.

 

[GSG Flash]

Bold prediction there. I also predict sales will slow in the future. For every product ever. You are the Joe Morgan of video game analytics.


I predict Zelda will sell well for the lifetime of the system but its attach rate will diminish over time. I feel that if the system sells a lot then it has a high likelihood of breaking 10 million. If Switch sales plummet due to a PS4 Probile and Xbone ScorpiGo then I expect sales of Zelda to cool considerably, unless ported to the Magnavox Odyssey. If they can bundle Mario Odyseey with the magnavox then I anticipate the brand synergy will be enough to sustain Zelda's sales well into the 31st century.

What's with the snarky assholish comment? Pretty uncalled for considering it's not like I insulted your mom.

Wii sales did not drop off after the initial launch craze, Wii U's did. My point was that I think the Switch will be more like the latter than the former(though maybe sales won't crater as far as the Wii U's did).

 

[Icarus]

It'll blow past 10M.

 

[vern]

What's with the snarky assholish comment? Pretty uncalled for considering it's not like I insulted your mom.

Wii sales did not drop off after the initial launch craze, Wii U's did. My point was that I think the Switch will be more like the latter than the former(though maybe sales won't crater as far as the Wii U's did).

Maybe a little too snarky, sure I apologize for that. Just I don't understand posting "predictions" that are so vague as to be pointless. Sales "leveling off" is normal for every product. It's not just you, there are lots of these kinds of predictions on gaf, and I shouldn't have said anything. At least in this post you came back and clarified you think it'll fall somewhere between Wii and Wii U. To be honest still not much of a prediction (somewhere between100+ million and the biggest video game craze ever and a 13 million sold flop is a pretty big range lol) but at least it's more specific as to what you mean. Again sorry for the snark in the original post.

 

[omgwtfbentime]

I think so, it's nintendo's most universally praised title in nearly a decade, Switch sales have an upward trajectory, I expect Zelda to remain the systems marquee title at least until Mario Odyssey, and I'd say it's probably the most mainstream appealing Zelda game since OoT. It will likely have a longer tail than most Zelda games, I think.

 

[Icedburden]

This depends if the switch sells over 20 million. I'm not joking, nothing is a given.
A 50% attach rate would be great, but this is only going to sell 10+ million if Switch keeps flying off shelves a year from now, which I doubt it will. Once the price hits $250 it'll start taking over the 3DS mindshare, then we'll see how the reception fares. Until then it'll be a premium product with only a handful of desirable games at its disposal.
The game seems amazing so I really hope it hits this milestone.

 

[MetalliCabombination]

Unlikely, largely due to the hardware its on.
Not impossible.

 

[Puddington]

BOTW is the reason to buy the Switch at the moment and has insane WOM and critical reception. It will keep selling for years to come. It can absolutely do 10 million.

Yup! It's going to eventually be the the best selling Zelda game.

 

[GLAMr]

Eventually. I feel like BOTW will have considerable legs due to the sparse software lineup in the Switch for the near future. The attach rate for the game will be huge due to the lack of competition, plus its a f$#%ing excellent game.

Hell, I'm going to buy a copy once it runs well enough in Cemu.(www.receipts.jpg/truefacts/?=cantaffordswitch)

 

[arturo2666]

No way in hell.

 

[duckroll]

It won't, and that's not a knock on how well it will sell. I don't think people realize how hard it is to sell 10 million copies worldwide. Especially when it isn't likely to sell even a million copies in Japan.

 

[Makai]

probably 5 million

 

[nightopian]

I think it has the potential to do very well. Especially with DLC planned around the holiday. I'd expect a bump in sales around then as well.

 

[Adam_Roman]

It will, but it may take some time and a GotY edition with the DLC packs included. I'm guessing by next holiday it'll pass 10mil. It's gonna be a game that people will buy with their Switch once more stuff comes out. I can see plenty of people buying Mario Kart, Odyssey, and BotW together.

 

[AzaK]

It depends on whether CEMU get close to 100%

 

[JershJopstin]

What's with the comments saying it depends on CEMU? Sure, some people might only play it that way, but that niche is a drop in the bucket even compared to Wii U players, let alone Switch.

 

[mo60]

It won't, and that's not a knock on how well it will sell. I don't think people realize how hard it is to sell 10 million copies worldwide. Especially when it isn't likely to sell even a million copies in Japan.

Yeah. It would have to sell like 9+ million worldwide if it did not sell at least 1 millon in Japan which is not going to happen ever.

 

[bubumiao]

Nope. I don't see the Switch selling remotely close to what the Wii did and you can't sell software without the hardware.

 

[DMONKUMA]

Probabaly 7 million at most.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Unless the switch ends up with wii like sales I'd say this is unlikely and even with that level of HW it's still unlikely. I think it can get closer to around 8 million which would still be fantastic. It depends if it remains a must have title on switch with super long legs, that's the only way it comes close to 10 million. With so many heavy Nintendo hitters on the way this seems like a stretch.

 

[R00bot]

I'd say at least 5 million, 10 is possible but I kind of doubt it.

 

[Mister Wilhelm]

I predict it will sell approximately 6.7 million copies and if this happens I will permanently make my AV a picture of me cuddling a Link body pillow.

 

[Huge Succeeded]

Why does the Switch necessarily need to pull Wii-like sales for this game's sales to eclipse Twilight Princess? As though Wii's insane sales performance lead to an increase in sales in kind for these types of games. For a console that had ten times the base of its predecessor, only a few stalwart core-oriented Nintendo franchise entries managed to sell even twice what their last-gen predecessor titles sold. This game's got a lot more innate mainstream appeal than previous Zelda games because of its open world gameplay, and it'll probably have pretty long legs on the Switch, too.

 

[Speely]

10m before 2021.

 

[Its Quite Toasty]

I want to believe.






Because Sidon believes in us.

Believe in the Sidon that believes in you

 

[Spring-Loaded]

Lol. Wii U was probably a single press run. How many physical copies in do you think they even made for Wii U?

I too was once a non-believer like you. That is, until I saw the light of CEMU's blessing



This isn't just me evangelizing this emulator every change I get, or anything. No sir

.

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

Where's TP HD sales figures?

It was #2 in Japan first week and #9 second week for 60k, it was #1 individual chart in the UK first week and #9 second, and #3 in the US first month for around 300k, so that's about half a million first month in those regions. Add in other regions and since then, I don't know, some single digit multiple of that.

 

[qko]

Seems if the projections are right, by the time the Switch hits 15 million, it might get to that 10 WW.

 

[timetokill]

If there's any justice in this world, yes

 

[_Clash_]

It won't, and that's not a knock on how well it will sell. I don't think people realize how hard it is to sell 10 million copies worldwide. Especially when it isn't likely to sell even a million copies in Japan.

currently ~410K at retail (not including digital) in Japan

should hit 1 million no?

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Unlikely as it's connected to Switch sales. And by the time Switch reaches 10 millions unit sold there will probably be another Zelda game and Botw will see very little sales at that point.

I can guarantee you there won't be another Zelda by the time the Switch hits 10 million.

 

[_Clash_]

.

why are you championing this so hard out of curiosity?

 

[ZombiePlatypus]

Might drrail a bit, but suppose they put out a Switch Xmas sku bundle that came with BotW. Would its numbers traditionally count towards BotW's sales and contribute towards the 10mill mark?

 

[D.Lo]

Might drrail a bit, but suppose they put out a Switch Xmas sku bundle that came with BotW. Would its numbers traditionally count towards BotW's sales and contribute towards the 10mill mark?

tThey would have to, unfortunately almost every 'top seller' that has ever existed has been bundled at some point.

 

[Spring-Loaded]

why are you championing this so hard out of curiosity?

Because it's fuckng awesome. Have you looked at those screenshots? The game's true visuals are at their full potential.

 

[D.Lo]

.

You have not explained how exactly a PC emulator, that can not run the original disc directly. can lead to more copies of the (probably single print run) Wii U version being produced and sold, assisting it to get to 10 million.

It is possible to play the game on an emulator having purchased a copy yourself. I think it is beyond ludicrous to pretend that the emulator's existence will lead to any more than tiny number of people wanting to legitimately purchase the original disc, as well as a Wii U console to rip their own copy.

 

[ghostwritingduck]

It seems like the Switch is selling quite well. BOTW has me more excited about a Zelda game than I have ever been despite having loved the classic NES, GB, SNES and 64 games.

I hav no doubt that the game will eventually sell 10 million copies, but some of those copies may be virtual console or phone releases 10 years from now.

 

[_Clash_]

Hot take:

102% attach rate in US for Switch (906K Switch)

460K debut on U in US ( I believe Smash/MK8 did 750K+ timeline adjusted) other territories unkown

2.6 mill Switch sold,

so Zelda with all U and Switch sales combined,(if we estimate~ 500K on U sold in non US markets )probably over or near 3.5million worldwide

 

[Sammy Samusu]

3.84 million copies shipped so far.

"we anticipate that this momentum may lead to a new sellthrough record for the entire The Legend of Zelda series"

Quote from Kimishima during the latest fiscal meeting.

 

[watershed]

3.84 million copies shipped so far.

"we anticipate that this momentum may lead to a new sellthrough record for the entire The Legend of Zelda series"

Quote from Kimishima during the latest fiscal meeting.

I think there is a real possibility that it crosses 10 mil but what's the current record for a Zelda title? I think the 2 sets of DLC and an eventual, distant evergreen budget release will push Zelda past 10 mil.

 

[Xando]

It's gonna be bundled at some point so my guess would be yes.

 

[CartridgeBlower]

Breath of the Wild is the most important game in Nintendo's history

Man, some people really believe this at the moment?

 

[Machina]

It will be the best selling Zelda ever with combined Wii U and Switch sales. Quite an achievement when you factor in Ocarina has been re-released in like, 4 separate generations

 

[eXistor]

No way. I think it's gonna max out at 6, maybe 7 million.

 

[Zedark]

It's looking more and more likely, what with these amazing numbers publisher yesterday. Japan is well on its way to 1 million (very recently passed 500k), so I think it will hit 10 million lifetime. It's hands omelet outpacing Twilight Princess, and its ratio shipped compared to Switch tell me it isn't past its prime yet either.

 

[mrklaw]

It won't, and that's not a knock on how well it will sell. I don't think people realize how hard it is to sell 10 million copies worldwide. Especially when it isn't likely to sell even a million copies in Japan.

I thought switch was selling well in Japan? What are they buying it for, if not Zelda?

 

[Usobuko]

I also think it's more and more likely.

Being one of the highest-grated game ever makes it possible. Plus it's has a lot of appeal for the current gaming mainstream audience, mostly the freedom and variety of gameplay in it.