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Real Clear Politics (political tracking site) declares Texas a Toss-Up state
- Thread starter DrForester
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SwiftDeath
Member
Will most likely be red but I imagine Trump led a lot of more liberal ppl to register and vote in Texas which will only benefit the Democrats going forward. I think we'll see a blue Texas in the next 2 elections or so unless GOP changes themselves in the national stage.
It's interesting to see Texas become a swing state this election, but it's likely to be a solid red state in 2020.
That said, if Texas were to go blue this election, a good indicator of it heading that way (besides Texas polls) would be a Clinton lead greater than 3-4 points in Ohio. Recent polls have shown that Clinton and Trump are now tied in Ohio. A Clinton increase of 3-4 points in Ohio could show a 1-2 point Clinton shift in Texas.
That said, if Texas were to go blue this election, a good indicator of it heading that way (besides Texas polls) would be a Clinton lead greater than 3-4 points in Ohio. Recent polls have shown that Clinton and Trump are now tied in Ohio. A Clinton increase of 3-4 points in Ohio could show a 1-2 point Clinton shift in Texas.
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
I'll fucking go to an Astros game if Texas actually turns blue.
This is a weird statistical anomaly because of the fact that no one has polled Minnesota since before the first debate. Texas is moving because of polling data showing it pretty consistently at a ~3 point race.
There's one in South Texas. That's about it. That's why Hillary is focusing her long-shot efforts on Indiana and Missouri, where there's more downballot upside, even though the polls actually show those states less competitive presidentially than Texas. Texas is also much more expensive to campaign in, due to its size.
no senate races and i know my congressman isn't up for reelection this year, not sure about others though
Me, too. And I live in Tulsa.
All congressmen are up for reelection every two years.
right, i should have said that in my district nobody's running against him. i think that's the case in a lot of the state, there's very few competitive districts.
Lord Frieza
Member
I feel like Hank Hill would probably vote for Hillary. He's conservative, but he's far from insane. He may go third party, but I think he'd shallow his pride on this and just say, 'That other candidate just ain't right.'
John Dunbar
correct about everything
libruls should organise a mass migration from california to flip texas for good.
He may have voted against bush just because he had a limp handshake. He just leans GOP.
newshinycd
Member
Can someone edit this picture to have Georgia instead of a Wii U?
Depends on Trump's handshake grip.
Team Filler
Member
I'll be doing my part to try and turn it blue. Fuck the GOP.
There may also be a statistical anomaly in the polls that RCP counts for Texas. Compare it to 538's:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/
RCP also lists Georgia as a tossup state.
Lv99 Slacker
Member
Will do my part, GAF. Moved to Austin three years ago from NY (grew up in Los Angeles though). Registered, and got a new TX state ID waiting for me in the mail when I return home on 11/05.
Sweeney Tom
Banned
Even if it goes to Trump in the end, it doesn't matter. This year and election cycle is damning enough when the best thing the GOP has to say by the end of it all is "at least we still have Texas"
If it isn't immediately called for Trump when the state's polls close, it's going to be a long rough night for them, and I'm looking forward to it
If it isn't immediately called for Trump when the state's polls close, it's going to be a long rough night for them, and I'm looking forward to it
EatinOlives
Member
It's not going blue.
But damnit if I don't wish it did
But damnit if I don't wish it did
Premium Quality
Member
That happened after the 2008 collapse. Lots of people moved there for the cheap housing and jobs at the time.
This is too good.
And I would have such a wonderful time reading Facebook meltdowns from the local conservative people.
Texas is now heavily hispanic dominated in areas now so it stands to reason a candidate that is advocating mass deportation, jail time and border walls would not be popular.
The real crazy thing is how Republicans don't see the demographic changes or do anything about it. They want to blame Democrats for everything but they could have built border walls, deported illegal immigrants in the past, done a number of things but they didn't. If Trump didn't latch on to the border wall idea this election, it was a complete non factor early on.
The real crazy thing is how Republicans don't see the demographic changes or do anything about it. They want to blame Democrats for everything but they could have built border walls, deported illegal immigrants in the past, done a number of things but they didn't. If Trump didn't latch on to the border wall idea this election, it was a complete non factor early on.
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
Yep. Not until the 2020s.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Texas going blue is fun to talk about and appears to be a clear eventuality, but for this election Texas will go red.
They know the have a demographic problem, but their core supporter won't let them shift.
Texas is about the only thing I can think of that would make the GOP actually address the shit it has done to itself and the country.
Problem is that I don't know what a good Republican philosophy looks like with the Democratic party this right-centrist. Their economic policy is disproven bullshit at the arithmetic level and their social policies are literally evil. When anti abortion is your most reasonable ethical position then you done slowly goofed.
Racism, environmental destruction and homophobia aren't enough.
Problem is that I don't know what a good Republican philosophy looks like with the Democratic party this right-centrist. Their economic policy is disproven bullshit at the arithmetic level and their social policies are literally evil. When anti abortion is your most reasonable ethical position then you done slowly goofed.
Racism, environmental destruction and homophobia aren't enough.
They don't need to do anything about it, the house is all they need to halt progress while they try to keep pushing the message of their corporate masters.
I see it differently. It's crazy how even with a terrible candidate like Trump, the dems can't take Texas.
And I doubt it'll go blue. The party will change before it does.
gutter_trash
Banned
Says who? Weeks ago our own Republican governor sent out an email to his supporters expressing concern that their own internal polling was showing Clinton only trailing 1-2 points. All these polls showing her trailing by 3 are all well within the margin of error.
CountAntonius
Member
Electric Eye
Banned
They keep wanting California companies and people to move to their state. Well there you go.
Applesauce
Boom! Bitch-slapped!
Just a friendly reminder for TexasGAF early voting starts tomorrow 
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
That's only to "prove" that "corporations are leaving California in droves!!11!"
Zoe
Member
People keep saying this, but minority conservatives do exist in sizable numbers in Texas.
Been spending the past week arguing with quite a few on Nextdoor
Fine Ham Abounds
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