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Reggie : No Wii successor talk until 45 million US Wiis sold / GAF speculates

F

farnham

Banned
GCX said:
Of course they're not going to release two consoles during one fiscal year. That would be an economical suicide.
Click to expand...
indeed. last time they did that GC bombed and GBA got a lot of SNES ports
 
L

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
Zoe said:
But the long term is loooooooong, and Reggie's saying they won't even consider it until that point?

Though realistically I'm sure they've already started R&D. We just won't hear any acknowledgement for a long time.
Click to expand...

Realistically, I doubt that Reggie has any say in the matter.
 
poppabk

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Ryuuga said:
"We've sold a lot of units up to this point and expect to sell more."

PR translation simplified.
Click to expand...
"I don't make those decisions and they never tell me anything"
Fixed
 
L

Lance Bone Path

Member
..pakbeka.. said:
Why didn't Kotaku ask the one question we all want to know the asnwer to.

"Will Xenoblade and Last Story ever be localized?"
Click to expand...
Reggie will be happy to have that conversation when wii has sold 100 million in North America.
 
E

Emitan

Member
jamesinclair said:
DS: 2004
3DS: 2011

= 6.5 years

Wii: 2006
+6.5 years
=3Wii: 2013
Click to expand...
The DS is the greatest selling system of all time. The Wii's great, but slowing down. Handhelds are completely different from consoles.
 
Cygnus X-1

Cygnus X-1

Member
Reggie unfortunately does not know anything. Iwata and Miyamoto do. Reggie will know about Wii 2, six months before the shipment date.
 
F

farnham

Banned
wow cant believe that the DS lasted more then twice as long then the GBA did.
Cygnus X-1 said:
Reggie unfortunately does not know anything. Iwata and Miyamoto do. Reggie will know about Wii 2, six months before the shipment date.
Click to expand...
that early ?
 
F

FoneBone

Member
Fall 2011 looks like an impossibility at this point. It'd make sense from a business perspective, but I think Nintendo missed that boat.
 
E

Emitan

Member
FoneBone said:
Fall 2011 looks like an impossibility at this point. It'd make sense from a business perspective, but I think Nintendo missed that boat.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if they want to cut into 3DS sales. I know GBA and GameCube released in the same year, but it doesn't seem like a great idea. Microsoft can't release until 2013 and Sony till late 2012 at the earliest. They have to keep commitment on their new hardware.
 
F

FoneBone

Member
Billychu said:
I'm not sure if they want to cut into 3DS sales. I know GBA and GameCube released in the same year, but it doesn't seem like a great idea. Microsoft can't release until 2013 and Sony till late 2012 at the earliest. They have to keep commitment on their new hardware.
Click to expand...
I'm not convinced that Nintendo couldn't pull it off, but regardless, I think they'd have to be sending out dev kits very, very soon if they were aiming for 2011, and there'd be far more detailed rumors.
 
D

donny2112

Member
xbhaskarx said:
Wii came out November 2006, it's now November 2010, so that's 4 years.
In that time Wii has sold ~30 million units in the US, so 7.5 million a year.
It needs to sell 15 million more to get to 45 million, which is 2 years at 7.5 million a year.
But Wii sales had slowed down considerably in the US over the last year.
I say 3 years to reach 45 million, so new Wii for holiday 2013.
Click to expand...

You're not thinking logically.

Nov-2006 - Oct-2007 - 5.0m
Nov-2007 - Oct-2008 - 8.3m
Nov-2008 - Oct-2009 - 8.7m
Nov-2009 - Oct-2010 - ~8.6m

Total: ~30.6m

"Slowed down considerably" doesn't seem to fit these numbers actually. :lol Price cut next year ($149 and maybe $99 in 2012), and end of 2012 is easily doable.

onipex said:
I remember Iwata saying that they released it when they did because they thought the move and kinect would be out that year.
Click to expand...

Iwata would've never said any such thing.
 
T

TunaLover

Member
From my other thread
What Reggie said is in direct concordance with Iwata recent Q&A
Iwata said:
[...]By now, we have come to notice that such special offers from retailers have prompted significant increases in the weekly sales, so we are interpreting the current situation as our consumers are patiently waiting, instead of interpreting it as diminishing demand (for Wii and Nintendo DS). I think this is how the difference in expectation can take place between when you estimate the November and December sales based upon the past years' sales trend and when we forecast our sales in this fashion.

[...]So, we cannot afford to make the software too unique. Such titles as "nintendogs," "Brain Training," "Wii Fit" and "Wii Sports" were able to cross that hurdle in a short period of time. At Nintendo, we have not come to the stage where we need to give up on the developments of such unique titles at all. We do not feel that Wii has come to its limit.[...]

Actually, it should be appropriate for me to say, "the number of Nintendo DS users is stable." On the other hand, the number of Wii users is still growing. As we have the Japanese counterpart graph for this, I'd like to show it to you.

[...]Having said that, in case of Wii, the number of users is constantly increasing. By looking at such graphs, we come to think, for example, we need to launch a device to succeed Nintendo DS in the near future while we have more room for expansion with Wii.[...]
Click to expand...
 
V

ViperVisor

Member
2012 for sure.

If they had something that was like the newness of Wii when it came out you can deal with a shallow software pool and 2011 date. It is hard for me to think of something they could feasibly do in the revolution area.
A mo better Wii and a little extra and they have more time for software development.
 
H

HylianScribe

Member
Billychu said:
I'm expecting an announcement at E3 and a Q2 2012 release.
Click to expand...

This is my sentiment as well. Wii could possibly hold its own in 2011 with Zelda and Vitality Sensor, and a compliment of supporting releases. Let's face it, 2011 is the year of the 3DS. It will be the hot seller for Nintendo through the year's end, and I think Wii will fall behind the competition. But Wii will still sell enough that it's making enough money for Nintendo that they don't have to push any panic buttons. Huge 3DS launch worldwide in spring, then E3 shows generation 2 software for 3DS, Wii stuff (possibly Zelda if it's been delayed longer than we think), and probably a reveal of the next console in the same fashion of Revolution, just a name and some tidbits, with the full reveal at E3 2012.
 
N

[Nintex]

Member
You'd think that Nintendo would want to bank on the Wii success with their new system. Kinda how the 3DS follows up right after the DS is slowing down a bit and how PS2 had the perfect timing. It seems that Nintendo is just waiting for third party support to dry up and wants to see how far they can get without doing anything for another 6 months or so after the holiday season is over.

In other words they're super duper fucked in NA if Kinect takes off the way MS expects it to. NCL won't give a fuck since they'll be celebrating Pokemon 3DS with hookers and blow.
 
A

antonz

Member
I dont think you can begin to say WiiHD would cut into sales of 3DS. The 3DS will be supply constraint for the first holiday season without a doubt if not the 2nd one as well.

WiiHD means people who couldnt get a 3DS might still give Nintendo their money via a console then buy 3DS later. Either way Nintendo wins in that situation.
 
F

farnham

Banned
BertramCooper said:
:lol at the thought of Reggie having any control over when the next console gets released.

Kyoto is in control, not Redmond.
Click to expand...
if i were reggie and in his position

id try to approach some NA devs in order to strengthen NOAs position. i mean compared to the revenue NOA is making their position within the Nintendo hierarchy is laugable. mainly because they have no power over software development.
 
R

Rafaelcsa

Member
Sadist said:
Agreed. People who actually believe Reggie right now are in denial, seeing last E3. Face it:

- After Donkey Kong Country Returns, the last two remaining Nintendo (EAD titles) are Skyward Sword and apparantly Pikmin 3. Other software still in development is outsourced. Mario Sports Mix is Square-Enix, The Last Story is Mistwalker/?; what else is left? Even Metroid Other M and Kirby's Epic Yarn were outsourced. FlingSmash too. Ofcource rescources are shifting towards to 3DS. But a studio like EAD Tokyo is surely working on next Nintendo hardware.

- New games from Nintendo? F-Zero seems unlikely and a New Super Mario Bros. Wii 2 would cannabalize the sales of the original, thus making the evergreen purpose of the title useless.

- Nintendo is starting to warm up for online, as Iwata adressed Nintendo's issues with it's online pressence.

- Not to mention: third parties. 2011 will be a bleak year for Wii, which will get it's occasional release btw. But it won't be enough.

- Also, Zelda release in Q1/Q2 2011? Keep dreaming.
Click to expand...

Rhythm Heaven has been confirmed for Wii next year, hasn't it? It's possible we could have more unexpected Wii games like that one in Wii's last remaining years. Hell, I don't think anyone was expecting Nintendo to come out with a new Kirby (which wasn't the GCN Kirby) and Donkey Kong Country. Rhythm Heaven is a huge surprise as well. Who knows what they'll have in store next year!? Yoshi's Island, Advance Wars, F-Zero, Star Fox, Pikmin... possibly another Fire Emblem or Wario Land? Or Mario & Luigi, now that Paper Mario has gone portable... I wouldn't doubt anything at this point.
except for a new Mother game
 
M

M3d10n

Member
No way Nintendo will release a new console in less than 18 months after the 3DS launch. They would be spreading their software development too thin. Spacing their handheld and console releases, like they did with the DS and Wii, is much safer and nets better results.
 
V

Vizion28

Banned
Whoever thinks a new Wii will come in 2011 must be smokin'.

2011 is the release of 3DS. Also Nintendo has big titles such as Skyward Sword, Pikmin 3, Xenoblade and The Last Story for the west for 2011.

Edit: I forgot about Mario Sports Mix. It may not be core gamers' cup of tea but we all know it will sell a couple mil.
 
A

antonz

Member
Vizion28 said:
Whoever thinks a new Wii will come in 2011 must be smokin'.

2011 is the release of 3DS. Also Nintendo has big titles such as Skyward Sword, Pikmin 3, Xenoblade and The Last Story for the west for 2011.
Click to expand...

Skyward sword could easily pull a Twilight Princess. Xenoblade and Last Story will bomb ba bom bom bomb!
 
G

Grampa Simpson

Banned
I think the announcement timeline will be very similar to that of the 3DS. I wish they were aiming for a 2012 release, but it's going to more likely be 2013. I don't think they'll miss the holiday period like they have with the 3DS. I think it will be minor press release/newspaper announcement -> E3 Blowout -> Release all within the span of a year. Nintendo will hype the fuck out of it that E3 though. There will be lines around the motherfucking block.
 
L

LegendofJoe

Member
Pikmin 3 is going to be a near launch title for the next console, I don't why so many of you are expecting it to release on the Wii.
 
neoism

neoism

Member
Not sure if it's been mentioned but Goddamn Reggie is a BOSS.
5sok2.jpg

201 hours... :lol
 
N

nli10

Member
No one will launch ANY new Carpet Consoles until the market decides whether it wants 3D or not and how best to display it, and whether it likes HD waggle/wiggle experiences with Move/Kinect.

We won't truly know this until next Holiday season so I'd expect a Wii successor mid 2012 and MS/Sony to react accordingly depending on their own successes in 2013.
 
P

Poyunch

Member
LegendofJoe said:
Pikmin 3 is going to be a near launch title for the next console, I don't why so many of you are expecting it to release on the Wii.
Click to expand...
Piktura's probably Pikmin for the DSi 3DS.
 
A

antonz

Member
nli10 said:
No one will launch ANY new Carpet Consoles until the market decides whether it wants 3D or not and how best to display it, and whether it likes HD waggle/wiggle experiences with Move/Kinect.

We won't truly know this until next Holiday season so I'd expect a Wii successor mid 2012 and MS/Sony to react accordingly depending on their own successes in 2013.
Click to expand...

3D wont matter for the next consoles considering the current can do it. 3D TV wont be embraced mainstream at least for a decade at the current rate unless they suddenly make 3dTV as chepa as the others.

Iwata already said the GC was designed to do 3D but the feature was never actually used for obvious reasons.
 
A

antonz

Member
m3k said:
how much is th wii tracking this year in the US? 7 milli?
Click to expand...
I think by the end of december it should be pretty close to 7 million. Through september they were at 3.6 million roughly. Another 3 million should be easily done for the holiday season
 
M

m3k

Member
antonz said:
I think by the end of december it should be pretty close to 7 million. Through september they were at 3.6 million roughly. Another 3 million should be easily done for the holiday season
Click to expand...

rough year but theyd.... hmmm price cut and well recieved zelda could boost it to 40 circa 2012 i suppose...

theyll announce 2012 im sure probably the end though... 3ds can be amazing and im sure they are going to push that really hard all next year
 
C

camineet

Banned
Zoe said:
But the long term is loooooooong, and Reggie's saying they won't even consider it until that point?

Though realistically I'm sure they've already started R&D. We just won't hear any acknowledgement for a long time.
Click to expand...


Ummm, the Wii's successor was no doubt in R&D before the Wii launched in late 2006, so we're talking about 4 years of R&D on the next-gen console, at least, with 2011, another year, before the likely 2012 launch.
 
O

Osuwari

Member
2011 is 3DS so it is a no brainer that the Wii2 will be 2012. they'll need all the capacity they can have to manufacture those 3DS for holiday 2011 and having wii2 by then would be a real mess.
not to mention there's Nintendo's new software for 3DS. sucks if you don't get a 3DS but that's how Nintendo rolls (DS's most packed Nintendo-made software period was the period when the GC was abandoned and the Wii was coming)
 
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