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[BowieZ]

I wonder what percentage of the 100M families/households that bought a Wii in the last 6 years will turn around and say, at some point in the NEXT 6 years (by 2019), "Have you seen all those Wii U ads? lets go upgrade our Wii and buy the new Mario Kart or U Sports [for Christmas]!"

I'm pretty sure Nintendo needs to convince those exact people to double dip. (I don't see many households switching from Sony/MS, etc., nor newbs having never experienced the Wii phenomenon or had familiarity with the product).

That's a LONG time to make the choice to upgrade. Nintendo has a long time to get the marketing right.

 

[AniHawk]

nintendo was able to save the 3ds from a vita-like fate, and they managed to turn the ds around, but the ds in particular had a vision behind it supported by some very unique and easy to understand software. it didn't hurt that the ds lite basically served as a launch for the ds as we know it- i don't know if nintendo will be able to slim down the wii u in the future.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I wonder what percentage of the 100M families/households that bought a Wii in the last 6 years will turn around and say, at some point in the NEXT 6 years (by 2019), "Have you seen all those Wii U ads? lets go upgrade our Wii and buy the new Mario Kart or U Sports [for Christmas]!"

"Let's go upgrade our Wii" only works if the Wii is still resonant with them. What if they put the Wii in the closet in 2009 or sold it or got an iPad or a Kinect or they're a family but the kid move way to college or...

I'm not discounting any momentum from Wii to Wii U, but a strategy that sells the Wii U only based on the Wii seems a little short-sighted giving the timing for everything. In 2015, exactly no one will be thinking fondly of the Wii.

 

[darkistheway]

"Let's go upgrade our Wii" only works if the Wii is still resonant with them. What if they put the Wii in the closet in 2009 or sold it or got an iPad or a Kinect or they're a family but the kid move way to college or...

I'm not discounting any momentum from Wii to Wii U, but a strategy that sells the Wii U only based on the Wii seems a little short-sighted giving the timing for everything. In 2015, exactly no one will be thinking fondly of the Wii.

I don't really think the strategy is based on the Wii but rather on the monster franchises the Wii created. To me, the litmus test of the Wii U will be next fall. If they have one of the big franchises ready to go, market the hell out of it, and they sell a few million consoles to the 'casuals' then the momentum will be there for a pretty successful generation. That said, I don't expect any console to repeat the Wii. I expect 60-80 million for Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony.

 

[QaaQer]

Even with 20 million Nintendo would profit, so...

Fixed costs, yo.

 

[Caramello]

"Let's go upgrade our Wii" only works if the Wii is still resonant with them. What if they put the Wii in the closet in 2009 or sold it or got an iPad or a Kinect or they're a family but the kid move way to college or...

I'm not discounting any momentum from Wii to Wii U, but a strategy that sells the Wii U only based on the Wii seems a little short-sighted giving the timing for everything. In 2015, exactly no one will be thinking fondly of the Wii.

The bolded is untrue.. Many will think fondly of the Wii, especially younger people who grew up with it.

It doesn't matter anyway as Nintendo have stated that they want to target everyone with Wii U, casual gamers and core gamers.

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

"Let's go upgrade our Wii" only works if the Wii is still resonant with them. What if they put the Wii in the closet in 2009 or sold it or got an iPad or a Kinect or they're a family but the kid move way to college or...

I'm not discounting any momentum from Wii to Wii U, but a strategy that sells the Wii U only based on the Wii seems a little short-sighted giving the timing for everything. In 2015, exactly no one will be thinking fondly of the Wii.

I'll be 34 then and I will remember the Wii fondly, it was the console that got me back into console gaming after going PC in 2003, so your point is already incorrect.

Fixed costs, yo.

Nintendo first party games, yo.

 

[Ninjagorilla]

In 2015, exactly no one will be thinking fondly of the Wii.

Would you care to elaborate on that? Why wouldn't anyone be thinking fondly of the Wii? I'm pretty sure I will - It's my favourite home console ever. I've been playing since the 80's.

 

[Diddy Kong]

In 2015, exactly no one will be thinking fondly of the Wii.

Not too sure about this statement :-|

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Wii was also doing fine until early 2011, I'm not sure why people are complaining about 2009 when that year it set sales records like 4m in one NPD? 2010 was still good too, probably the best year of Wii's life for releases imo (Galaxy 2, S&P2, MH3, Trauma Team, TatsuCap, Other M, Sonic Colors, DKCR, Kirby's EY, Goldeneye, Shiren 3, SW3, etc, etc). 2011 was when sales went flat, releases dried up, and things generally went to hell. I strongly suspect the original plan for Wii U was to get it out by the end of 2011 (and 3DS out by the end of 2010).

 

[MisterHero]

No one's going to be nostalgic about Wii because it's still featured in Wii U. The best Nintendo could do is make a ton of cheap 1st and 3rd-party reprints like Sony did with PS1/2. They won't though. At least there's still the possibility of GC/Wii VC.

 

[BD1]

All of these are enough reasons to believe Iwata should leave his office.

The problem with this is that you're using the massive success of the Wii and DS to prove that those decisions have hurt the 3DS and Wii U. Wii U has been on the market for 6 weeks. 3DS is profitable. So you cannot reasonably say that the current strategy has failed or failing.

Could it? Of course. Has it? No.

 

[Koren]

No one's going to be nostalgic about Wii because it's still featured in Wii U.

I'm pretty sure I'll be nostalgic of the Wii because I truly expect pointers controls to mostly disappear with Wii U. And damn, that was great, for me at least.

They'd have to do something spectacular to fail to have their second biggest selling console.

Spectacular fail if they only sell 60 millions Wii U? That's quite a stretch.

I'd say it's far too soon to make precise predictions, I would consider anything in the 30-100M range possible.

 

[AzaK]

NES: 62 million units worldwide
SNES: 49 million units worldwide
N64: 33 million units worldwide
GC: 22 million worldwide
Wii: 97 million worldwide

Does this make it clear why Nintendo abandoned the hardware race?

Investment in large leaps of console ability had led to significant decline in hardware sales, and thus software sales - which are Nintendo's bread and butter.

Like it or not, the change in strategy that lead to the Wii very likely saved Nintendo. Is it any wonder that strategy would continue to resonate in the management of the company?

No, Nintendo's attitude towards developers, iron fisted control and insistence on using proprietary technology like cartridges and small discs caused the problem. After a couple of gens of this they had fucked off pubs and gamers who went to ps2 and started to go to the Xbox. The Wii wasn't an attempt to right the wrong of high tech it was an attempt to salvage a company who had shunned its audience.

A scared company that could not afford, or more accurately, did not want to spend the money to make the jump to HD and release a strong console. Overall I'd say their gamble failed. Look at the enthusiast gamers who went and spent lots on other platforms' games and look at Nintendo's share price. No ones happy.

And now they have gone and done a similar thing with the Wii U although it will at least be more port friendly.

 

[QaaQer]

Nintendo first party games, yo.

So your saying 20 million install base will be enough to keep a company the size of nintendo profitable because of 1st party games?

Might be true, but I'd doubt it.

 

[farnham]

"Let's go upgrade our Wii" only works if the Wii is still resonant with them. What if they put the Wii in the closet in 2009 or sold it or got an iPad or a Kinect or they're a family but the kid move way to college or...

I'm not discounting any momentum from Wii to Wii U, but a strategy that sells the Wii U only based on the Wii seems a little short-sighted giving the timing for everything. In 2015, exactly no one will be thinking fondly of the Wii.

I hope you have some explanation on this or are people that like wii just nobodies for you?

 

[AniHawk]

I hope you have some explanation on this or are people that like wii just nobodies for you?

the same argument was made for why all the ps2 owners would get a ps3, despite the price and despite the slow initial sales. in reality, those people didn't buy a ps3. they bought a wii. then they bought a kinect. then they bought an ipad.

 

[squid]

Pretty much everyone I know that has a wii (quite a lot of people) are still quite positive about it. Sure they don't play it anymore, but they talk about how much fun they had with it. When I mention I bought a WiiU, a few have said 'oh cool, there's a new wii?' and are quite curious about it. Sometimes the 'hardcore gamers' can forget that not everyone views the wii as just a fad that collects dust.

I do think the name WiiU isn't a very good one, but banking on the Wii name does have some advantages.

 

[farnham]

the same argument was made for why all the ps2 owners would get a ps3, despite the price and despite the slow initial sales. in reality, those people didn't buy a ps3. they bought a wii. then they bought a kinect. then they bought an ipad.

I was referring to his remark that nobody will have fond memories of wii in 2015.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Iwata talking about free-to-play (or cheap-to-play)

From this article: http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZZO50298050V00C13A1000000/?df=4

デジタルでのディストリビューションが可能になり、少額決済も可能になったことで、娯楽の提供とお金のいただきかたのバリエーションが増やせるようになった。それは世の中の変化であり、ゲームの質で勝負するのも、お金のいただきかたで工夫をするのも、私は同じようにクリエイティブなことだと思います。だから、後からの課金や、フリーツープレーについて、私はまったく否定するつもりはありません. じゃあ、それを任天堂がやるかどうかについてですが、まず、任天堂がすでに知名度や面白さの信用を確立した商品について、そういうことをするつもりは、あまりない。例えば『マリオ』のソフトに4800円なり5800円を出す価値を認めていただいてる方に対して、課金してカギを開けないと楽しめない、というようなことはしないということです. でも、マリオでもっと多くのステージを遊びたいという人たちもいらっしゃるわけで、その人たちに向けて新たなコースを作り、課金して追加できるようにするというようなことは別の話。それは一部タイトルですでに始めています。そして、任天堂も知名度ゼロの新規タイトルについて、このゲームの構造はフリーツープレーに向いているね、ってなったら、やるかもしれないし、フリーじゃなくてチープから始めるかもしれない. 販売方法の自由度が生まれたわけで、その自由度を自分たち自身で消してしまおうとは思ってはいません。ただ、そういうものが任天堂から出たとしても、それは任天堂が変節したのではなくて、新たな自由度を生かすために面白いアイデアが生まれたので使いました、ってだけ。マリオや『ポケモン』の売り方を変えましょう、という
話ではありません

We [as an industry] can now do distribution by digital means as well as micro-transactions, and the ways to obtain money through supporting entertainment have increased. It's a change in our landscape; competing in game-quality, and working on how money is obtained, I think both are things that require creativity. Therefore, I have no intention of denying charged [subscription? DLC?] games, or the free-to-play model. If we were to talk about if Nintendo were to do that, however, I do not much inclination to do that with Nintendo's established well-known products, where people trust their interesting-ness. For example, for people who are used to Mario games costing 4,800 or 5,800 yen, we will not have a proverbial door to full enjoyment that can only be unlocked via payment. However, this is separate from say, having something where because there are people who want more stages to play on in Mario games, we will create new courses for those people and charge for them. We have already begun this process with some of our titles. For new titles with no established base, if, in the process of development, we found it to suit the free-to-play model, we might follow that route, or we might do something like 'Cheap-to-play'. Our sales methods have been freed up and I have no desire to extinguish that freedom. If we were to release something like that, it is not a betrayal but the birth of an interesting idea through our new found freedom, that's all. I am not talking about changing how we sell Mario or Pokemon.

 

[moulels]

Those who hate Iwata should watch this or read the Iwata Asks. I really don't understand people who want his resignation. He deeply understands what Nintendo is (also with its shortcomings) and has under his arm two of the most successful videogame consoles ever. 3DS is currently slaying in Japan and doing good worldwide in a cheap-mobile-games environment. Wii U is only two months old and we are already saying it's a failure??

 

[Tookay]

I'm not sure Iwata should leave office. The main reason is that there is no one even remotely as capable as him at Nintendo. Unless you just bring up some auditor or financial executive to just turn the tables.

I think it is mainly the entire Board of Directors (Miyamoto, Takeda, etc) that collectively have made some very short-sighted decisions for a company that relies on an entire world wide marketshare for all people, all sizes, all tastes. There just needs to be balance in the company. More ubiquity. I'm not sure how that is going to happen.

They really need somebody from the west in a management position (beyond that of a powerless figurehead) who understands America and, to a lesser extent, Europe. Part of Nintendo's charm is in its idiosyncrasies, but they might be a little too insular for their own good. While their marketing and branding have been terrible the past two years, what I think has been more damaging was their reluctance to invest in online gameplay/infrastructure/marketplaces and leveraging their franchises in accordance with it. I think Iwata is a brilliant executive, but he was extremely short-sighted and sluggish in the online sphere.

While the Wii/DS generation reaped them massive profits in the short-term, Nintendo also made some strategic decisions during that generation that's lost them a lot of mindshare in the west (among general consumers, tech followers, game enthusiasts, and even their own faithful). It's going to take a while to get that back unless there are some larger initiatives to turn common perceptions of the company around.

 

[Shikamaru Ninja]

Those who hate Iwata should watch this or read the Iwata Asks. I really don't understand people who want his resignation. He deeply understands what Nintendo is (also with its shortcomings) and has under his arm two of the most successful videogame consoles ever. 3DS is currently slaying in Japan and doing good worldwide in a cheap-mobile-games enviroment. Wii U is only two months old and we are already saying it's a failure??

There is a huge problem in management, which of course most will single out Satoru Iwata as the CEO of the company. I think we all understand Nintendo keeps finding huge success in Japan, and they have some software capable of selling large amount of units despite any hardware shortcomings. But the company is falling behind miserably on their world wide strategy. As good as the company is doing in Japan, it can do MUCH better world wide IMO.

 

[farnham]

Those who hate Iwata should watch this or read the Iwata Asks. I really don't understand people who want his resignation. He deeply understands what Nintendo is (also with its shortcomings) and has under his arm two of the most successful videogame consoles ever. 3DS is currently slaying in Japan and doing good worldwide in a cheap-mobile-games enviroment. Wii U is only two months old and we are already saying it's a failure??

I dont think someone with a dev background is the right guy. Someone with a finance background and M&A experience could help to expand nintendos output. Something that is teally missing under iwata. Nintendo has bank and the many studios are in bad shape. It would be an ideal situation to buy some talent

 

[Stumpokapow]

I hope you have some explanation on this or are people that like wii just nobodies for you?

In the context that I wrote the statement, it is true. In the context that people are evidently choosing to interpret it, it is not true. It serves me right for assuming context would bridge the gap from my emotive word choice to the obvious intended meaning.

 

[farnham]

They really need somebody from the west in a management position (beyond that of a powerless figurehead) who understands America and Europe to a lesser extent. Part of Nintendo's charm is in its idiosyncrasies, but I think Nintendo might be a little too insular for its own good. While their marketing and branding have been terrible the past two years, what I think has been more damaging was their reluctance to invest in online gameplay/infrastructure/marketplaces and leveraging their franchises in accordance with it. I think Iwata is a brilliant executive, but he was extremely short-sighted and sluggish in the online sphere.

While the Wii/DS generation reaped them massive profits in the short-term, Nintendo also made some strategic decisions during that generation that's lost them a lot of mindshare in the west (among general consumers, tech followers, game enthusiasts, and even their own faithful). It's going to take a while to get that back unless there are some larger initiatives to turn common perceptions of the company around.

General consumers. No they gained mind share
Tech followers. Never had mindshare.
Game enthusiast. Lost mindshare on gamecube already. If anything wii restored some.
Own faithful. Gamecube lost them mindshare not wii

 

[BD1]

I dont think someone with a dev background is the right guy. Someone with a finance background and M&A experience could help to expand nintendos output. Something that is teally missing under iwata. Nintendo has bank and the many studios are in bad shape. It would be an ideal situation to buy some talent

No, Iwata has exactly the right philosophy as it relates to M&A. In the games business, M&A buys you logos, not talent.

 

[farnham]

No, Iwata has exactly the right philosophy as it relates to M&A. In the games business, M&A buys you logos, not talent.

Yeah pao
Inly slow strategy that has brought us very little. Firt party output is only marginally better.

People can be employed afterwards. Its the ips you want.(either for you or at list prohibiting the ip to benefit others)

 

[BD1]

Yeah pao
Inly slow strategy that has brought us very little. Firt party output is only marginally better.

People can be employed afterwards. Its the ips you want.(either for you or at list prohibiting the ip to benefit others)

If they wanted new IP, they would create it.

 

[Tookay]

General consumers. No they gained mind share
Tech followers. Never had mindshare.
Game enthusiast. Lost mindshare on gamecube already. If anything wii restored some.
Own faithful. Gamecube lost them mindshare not wii

Maybe I should clarify: they gained mindshare THEN squandered it in almost every one of those sectors.

They had a moment with the Wii/DS (2007-2009) where they controlled the narrative. Their systems were healthy, their software sales (and even select third-parties) were healthy, and MS/Sony were trying to be them. But they lost the plot toward the tail-end of that period in terms of corporate strategy and failed to capitalize on their advantages. We had software droughts, third-party support really collapsed, and people moved on to smartphones/tablets.

You see that in mainstream media coverage of their system launches, in enthusiast coverage of their games, and even in the divisive way people look back on the Wii (which is far from positive).

I love Nintendo games and think that, in terms of quality-output, the last six years have been one of their better periods, but it's not hard to see that a lot of their current problems stem from the decisions of the Wii/DS era. In the end, I wonder if the massive success of those years will look more like an aberration and the current way things are trending is just the market course-correcting.

 

[farnham]

Maybe I should clarify: they gained mindshare THEN squandered it in almost every one of those sectors.

They had a moment with the Wii/DS (2007-2009) where they controlled the narrative. Their systems were healthy, their software sales (and even select third-parties) were healthy, and MS/Sony were trying to be them. But it's pretty easy to see they've lost the plot and failed to capitalize on their advantages. We had software droughts, third-party support really collapsed, and people moved on to smartphones/tablets.

You see that in mainstream media coverage of their system launches, in enthusiast coverage of their games, and even in the divisive way people look back on the Wii (which is far from positive).

I love Nintendo games, but it's not hard to see that a lot of their current problems stem from the decisions of the Wii/DS era. In the end, I wonder if the massive success of those years will look more like an aberration and the current way things are trending is just the market course-correcting.

Thatsnwhy im saying they need a ceo with aggressive m&a strategies. They need to be much bigger. They cant rely on other companies they have to do it themselves

 

[farnham]

If they wanted new IP, they would create it.

As i said. You can choose to release a new game on the bought ip but you can also choose not to do anything with it but hinder anyone to use it for other consoles.

Say they bought kojima production and kojima left.

They could make mgs but they could also choose to let the franchise die. But the competition wont have games of that franchise. Maybe kojimas new game but not mgs

 

[Conor 419]

I honestly think it was the perfect time for Nintendo to venture back in to powerful hardware, it's a shame they wasted the opportunity, and made the shocking decision they did with the processor. I do not think all is lost though, they're just going to have a hard time keeping the Wii U momentum going without Wii Sports.

 

[Chindogg]

Thatsnwhy im saying they need a ceo with aggressive m&a strategies. They need to be much bigger. They cant rely on other companies they have to do it themselves

Because EA and Activision really push the quality of games.

 

[BD1]

As i said. You can choose to release a new game on the bought ip but you can also choose not to do anything with it but hinder anyone to use it for other consoles.

Say they bought kojima production and kojima left.

They could make mgs but they could also choose to let the franchise die. But the competition wont have games of that franchise. Maybe kojimas new game but not mgs

Well that is... Ridiculous. Just completely ridiculous.

 

[farnham]

Well that is... Ridiculous. Just completely ridiculous.

And yet its strategy that is used by companies

I honestly think it was the perfect time for Nintendo to venture back in to powerful hardware, it's a shame they wasted the opportunity, and made the shocking decision they did with the processor. I do not think all is lost though, they're just going to have a hard time keeping the Wii U momentum going without Wii Sports.

No that would have been a 600$ console

Because EA and Activision really push the quality of games.

...? If anything the quality of games of both companies increased drastically

 

[darkistheway]

They need to be much bigger. They cant rely on other companies they have to do it themselves

I think they know this; that's why they are expanding game development.

 

[Conor 419]

No that would have been a 600$ console

...why?

 

[farnham]

...why?

Gamepad already costs much and a high end box added into that?

I think they know this; that's why they are expanding game development.

Too little, too slow. They need to buy already existing organizations imho

 

[Conor 419]

Gamepad already costs much and a high end box added into that?

Pretty sure they could have gone lower.

 

[farnham]

Pretty sure they could have gone lower.

Nintendo does not like to take a loss on hardware

And even if its 500$. Its not the pricce for the consumer group they are aiming at. Its a price hardcore gamers would except. Hardcore gamers will not buy nintendo hardware though

 

[sorijealut]

Am I reading Sakurai in place of Miyamoto?

Jk, but he would be the only worthy successor.

 

[Conor 419]

Nintendo does not like to take a loss on hardware

Wii U?

 

[apana]

No, Nintendo's attitude towards developers, iron fisted control and insistence on using proprietary technology like cartridges and small discs caused the problem. After a couple of gens of this they had fucked off pubs and gamers who went to ps2 and started to go to the Xbox. The Wii wasn't an attempt to right the wrong of high tech it was an attempt to salvage a company who had shunned its audience.

A scared company that could not afford, or more accurately, did not want to spend the money to make the jump to HD and release a strong console. Overall I'd say their gamble failed. Look at the enthusiast gamers who went and spent lots on other platforms' games and look at Nintendo's share price. No ones happy.

And now they have gone and done a similar thing with the Wii U although it will at least be more port friendly.

What gamble failed, the Wii? It was the best decision they ever made, they made huge profits off it. Their recent losses and low share price are due to money lost on 3DS and currency fluctuations.

 

[Coolwhip]

I honestly think it was the perfect time for Nintendo to venture back in to powerful hardware, it's a shame they wasted the opportunity, and made the shocking decision they did with the processor. I do not think all is lost though, they're just going to have a hard time keeping the Wii U momentum going without Wii Sports.

Huh? The SHOCKING decision on the processor? It's supposed to be on par with the 360 one. And things like that don't matter anyway. Not to the audience Nintendo is after. They see NSMBU in HD and think 'great'. The things Nintendo has to worry about are not the hardware in the slightest. It's 100 other factors that make this a very uncertain time for just about anyone in the gaming industry.

 

[Erethian]

A scared company that could not afford, or more accurately, did not want to spend the money to make the jump to HD and release a strong console. Overall I'd say their gamble failed. Look at the enthusiast gamers who went and spent lots on other platforms' games and look at Nintendo's share price. No ones happy.

They made an enthusiast/port friendly console, it was called the Gamecube.

At the height of the Wii/DS Nintendo was making more money than they ever had. While the PS3 is one of the biggest financial failures in the history of gaming and the 360 might, just barely, turn a profit on the lifecycle of the system.

The fact is that after the PS2 generation Nintendo could no longer afford to compete with the amount of money Microsoft and Sony were investing into their gaming divisions. So they took the intelligent option and tried to differentiate themselves on something other than graphics.

 

[pieatorium]

Huh? The SHOCKING decision on the processor? It's supposed to be on par with the 360 one.

Source?

 

[farnham]

Wii U?

Yes they dont like it does not mean they will not do it. But if they went high spec they would have not been able to launch with a 299$ sku (which is already too high)

 

[Meelow]

Yes they dont like it does not mean they will not do it. But if they went high spec they would have not been able to launch with a 299$ sku (which is already too high)

I don't think any of them like to have a loss on they're console, I feel Sony will try to do something with the PS4 to make sure they don't sell at a big loss.

As for Nintendo I think if they were forced to sell at a loss they'd do it.

 

[Conor 419]

Yes they dont like it does not mean they will not do it. But if they went high spec they would have not been able to launch with a 299$ sku (which is already too high)

a $399 system capable of running games like Ass Creed Tri and Blop's 2 well and beyond the 360/PS3 may have been much more appealing than on par for $299.