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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

R

Rymuth

Member
Oh NPD day, how I've missed thee~

I need to pick up some sweetened popcorn on the way back from the dentist (there is no irony there, shut up!)
 
G

Goldmund

Member
RexNovis said:
I can't believe the thread about Pachter's predictions has drawn so much interest. Why is it that that thread is huge while the NPD prediction thread (the thread where actual sales predictions and and information are discussed) is so small? After venturing into the other thread for a while I just want to thank all of you in this thread for your logical and well thought analysis. It's always a pleasure conversing and debating the reasoning behind sales number/predictions with you all. Even though I'm sometimes getting schooled it's always great learning more and hearing more about what is going on in the industry in my home country while I'm working abroad. To sum up, these threads are the most fascinating part of GAF imho. So cheers to you all!

I just hope we can continue our reasonable discourse in the NPD results thread amidst the probable plethora of Pachter posts.

Oh and good luck to you all with your predictions! May the best man/woman win!
Click to expand...
That thread would have been even worse if Aquamarine hadn't intervened and directed the discussion into the right (or more acceptable) channels.
 
I

IAmRandom31

Banned
quetz67 said:
MS PR is easy: "Well know video game market analyst Michael Pachter said XBox One will be top selling console for the month of September"
Click to expand...

Nah it'll be something like, " Xbox One was the top selling standard console SKU this month! "

Something like that I could see lol.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Smash > fifa

Madden x1 > Madden ps4 I am basing this on the x1 version being on sale.

I think hyrule warriors will be number 8 on the software list.

I will write up my top ten later in the day.
Click to expand...
The top ten overwhelmingly features multiplatform titles because it's a combined all-formats chart. There are several new multiplats releasing (Destiny, NHL, FIFA, Infinity 2, Mordor) as well as the mainstays/likely holdovers that released in August (Madden, Diablo) or prior (Minecraft, Ghosts, Watch_Dogs, Lego Marvel, perhaps TLOU).

So I really can't see a Wii U exclusive musou game breaking into the bunch.
 
Aces&Eights

Aces&Eights

Member
As I am done with the game, I'm curious to see how the Destiny bundle did. If it brought in crazy numbers that means we will see more and more bundles in the future and that is a good thing. Black and red Bloodborne bundle? Hell, yes!
 
I

Into

Member
Its like a Nightmare on Elm street dream, you will fall sleep in front of your computer waiting for NPD today, then seemingly wake up and walk to the kitchen to get a Xbox sponsored Mountain Dew, as you move toward your kitchen, the floor opens with stars descend into the netherworld, to your shock you will suddenly descend into a boiler room, as steam is coming out of the cold, hard steel floor, a blueish color ever so pervasive, and whispers in the air of ".the last...guardian..", as you try to find the exit, a shadowy figure appears in the distance, cackling, its Kaz Hirai, who you mocked and abused during PS3 days, now back for a vengeance.

Then you wake up, startled, seeing that the PS4 outsold the Xbox One, and your only post is "just wait until Halo MCC", you shut the computer off and go ly down.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
t1413498600z1.png
 
T

Ty4on

Member
NPD drops 00:30 CEST so my brilliant idea is to wake up at 3 and hopefully get the important stuff with me. I have something to motivate me out of bed :p
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Due to smash 3DS might be number 3.
Click to expand...

Probably (due to the relative weakness of other systems), but not on its own merits.

We've had many other instances in the past where the release of a huge game didn't really move the needle hardware-wise when it came out for a very-established system.

The 3DS is on its way out...it's reaching saturation point, at least until the New 3DS makes its way onto the shelves.

That's why I didn't predict much of a hardware bump from Smash.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
Radec said:
Xbox One was the top selling Xbox console this month!
Click to expand...

This month is easy.

"Xbox One was the top selling console in September by 75,000 units over its closest competitor." *


* Source: Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities**





** Predicted numbers.

Their PR should type the double asterisk in incredibly small font and hide it somewhere.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Into said:
Its like a Nightmare on Elm street dream, you will fall sleep in front of your computer waiting for NPD today, then seemingly wake up and walk to the kitchen to get a Xbox sponsored Mountain Dew, as you move toward your kitchen, the floor opens with stars descend into the netherworld, to your shock you will suddenly descend into a boiler room, as steam is coming out of the cold, hard steel floor, a blueish color ever so pervasive, and whispers in the air of ".the last...guardian..", as you try to find the exit, a shadowy figure appears in the distance, cackling, its Kaz Hirai, who you mocked and abused during PS3 days, now back for a vengeance.

Then you wake up, startled, seeing that the PS4 outsold the Xbox One, and your only post is "just wait until Halo MCC", you shut the computer off and go ly down.
Click to expand...

Uh, what? (Haha)
 
I

idlewild_

Member
Ty4on said:
NPD drops 00:30 CEST so my brilliant idea is to wake up at 3 and hopefully get the important stuff with me. I have something to motivate me out of bed :p
Click to expand...

depends on what you're after. you'd find out which console sold best around that time, but any number leaks won't be for several hours afterwards.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
idlewild_ said:
depends on what you're after. you'd find out which console sold best around that time, but any number leaks won't be for several hours afterwards.
Click to expand...

School first starts at 10 so I have plenty of time. Last time I got everything except 3DS before that and 3DS came before I went to bed.

I'm used to the slow pace :)
 
A

AniHawk

Member
forgot to post my predictions but here's what i think:

great month:
ps4: 500k+
xb1: 300k+
wii u: 120k+

good month:
ps4: 400k-500k
xb1: 250k-300k
wii u: 100k-120k

decent month (should at least hit these):
ps4: 300k-400k
xb1: 200k-250k
wii u: 80k-100k

underwhelming month:
ps4: 250k-300k
xb1: 150k-200k
wii u: 60k-80k

oh my god we're having a fire
sale:
ps4: 200k-250k (or lower)
xb1: 120k-150k (or lower)
wii u: 40k-60k (or lower)

i expect the ps4 to have a good month and the xb1 to have a decent one. the wii u should have a decent one too, but it could also be underwhelming. kind of depends what the bundles did and if hyrule warriors raised any interest among zelda fans who didn't buy the console last year.
 
womfalcs3

womfalcs3

Banned
I actually have a feeling Pachter is right. Xbox sales in the US are bound to explode. I think a lot of 360 owners were waiting for a worthwhile deal.


It's not probable but wouldn't be surprising.
 
B

Birgitte2004

Member
womfalcs3 said:
I actually have a feeling Pachter is right. Xbox sales in the US are bound to explode. I think a lot of 360 owners were waiting for a worthwhile deal.


It's not probable but wouldn't be surprising.
Click to expand...

The issue with Pachter's results isn't his Xbox One total. It's his PS4 total. He gives no real reason why the weekly average outside of Destiny week would go down for the month of September.

So Xbox sales being "bound to explode" has nothing to with whether Pachter is right or not.
 
T

TrebuchetGames

Member
This is going to be an exciting NPD, just because we are now heading into the busy period, and this is where sales should improve across the board.

This should be our first indication of how the next few months might go... cannot wait, shame it will be around 11.30 at night in the UK when the first data comes out, because I really need to go into work early tomorrow...doh.
 
S

Shadow_FFVI

Member
womfalcs3 said:
I actually have a feeling Pachter is right. Xbox sales in the US are bound to explode. I think a lot of 360 owners were waiting for a worthwhile deal.


It's not probable but wouldn't be surprising.
Click to expand...

But on Destiny month? That´s the part that makes that scenario shocking.
 
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