They already have its barely releasing man, uk and usa is about it alot of europe doesnt get it till next year.
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*SHOCKING* PS4 to outsell Xbox One at launch, predicts Pachter
- Thread starter fluffydelusions
- Start date
They already have its barely releasing man, uk and usa is about it alot of europe doesnt get it till next year.
Because they didn't attempt to come out with polices that spit in our faces right next to a major competitor that wasn't?
It's not just anti-corporation, it's that when two equal competitors are pimping their products and one seems like the nice guys and the other seems like out-of-touch execs who are spinning PR on shit policies, we tend to favor the nice guys.
I think it will be a combination of things:
- Price (most important)
- Exclusive Games
- Visual Quality
- Framerate
- Better Multiplat support and performance
- Online authentication (MS still has this on first install)
fvng
Member
You can't seriously believe that's how that works
travisbickle
Member
Can we stop saying this when a game releases on the xbox one without dedicated servers?
They're not? We didn't have a movement a couple years ago? Romney didn't get booed when he said "corporations are people"? We don't froth at the mouth everytime they take bailout money and still give golden parachutes to execs?
Not necessarily anti every corporation, but our tolerance level for corporations attempting to bend people over is getting smaller and smaller day by day.
Phire Phox
Banned
The mass market doesn't give a flying high-in-the-sky fuck about framerate and performance. And the Visual quality between xbox one and ps4 multiplats will be minimal at best.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
The leap in your logic is that you assume anyone BUT gaming enthusiasts buy these consoles at launch. The multimedia pitch is not something that will push the console out the gate swinging (just ask Sony with their blu-ray strategy that only really picked up as the years went on). So not only are we likely looking at Sony having more supply at launch, but also the general gamer sentiment for the PS4 is positive, while for the XB1 it's negative. This will undoubtedly translate to an early lead for a PS4. Will this lead last a day past Jan-February? That remains to be seen. However, assuming that XB1 will sell gangbusters at launch due to it's appeal to the non-hardcore audience, who don't buy consoles at launch, is strange to say the least.
Q1-Q2 shall be an interesting spectacle, indeed.
You seem to have missed the first thing on the list:
Moneyhats2k5
Member
Entertainment Services like Netflix, NHL Pass, Youtube, Hulu, HBO are probably right behind Price/Exclusives
And the system that offers many of those services for free is a nice bullet point.
Is this sarcasm? I can't even tell any more, I hope so. 'Competitive' is defined as having or displaying a strong desire to be more successful than others, so when players of esports are training since before school-age, spending all their time pushing their abilities to the limit on one title for 20+years in order to be at the top of their field, then I'll accept esports are as competitive as actual sports that require a lifetime's commitment, specialised education programme, investment and training over time to compete at one individual game like football or tennis at the highest level.
As for literature, the idea that writing in games is anywhere near the classics is just laughable, usually because the writer has had to come up with a story to order to fit the game being wrapped around it. When the gaming mainstream moves out from dwelling primarily in its pulp roots of crime, sci-fi, fantasy with a choice of either swords and guns as modes of expression, it might have a chance, but the best stories are written because thousands upon thousands of writers have just needed to get their story out there no matter what for centuries, not by a much smaller pool of writers low down on the development pecking order and having the marketing department telling them their big climactic scene has to be bolted onto a 30 minute session of shooting the glowing weak spot and stabbing zombies.
Game design is still a very young industry with a lot to learn. Nothing wrong with that, it's come a long way in a short time and can teach a lot about play and interactivity and use of technology. I'd also admit that I think the music, in terms of inspiration, suitability for purpose and invoking emotion in-game and people collecting and listening to it as art for its own sake, is much further along than the writing as good writing and the cut scenes as good visual storytelling. Good games writing will happen when developers give it a much higher priority than they have done historically, with less constraints, but I'm not sure that will necessarily make for better games when writing for readers and writing for players are two very different things.
fvng
Member
You do understand that Pachter is answering questions for non video game publications and for the uninitiated right? Are you guys really that oblivious to the fact that not everyone lives and breathes this industry?
This doesn't even make sense. An advantage IS an advantage - there's no way to dispute it. It's indisputable that Sony's added PS4 power is an advantage, and that having better quality multiplatforms is an advantage (same as having a first party that can take advantage of that much added power). Literally by definition it's an advantage. You're trying to argue that the advantage is market-limited, but your argument for this seems to be rather poor. Such things have ALREADY helped systems in the past - it helped the 360. It was a common thing people mentioned over the PS3 in the early years. Remember, it is word-of-mouth that helps sell systems more than anything else, every study done on the subject always confirms this. Word-of-mouth in THIS industry is almost always started by hardcore gamers. Word-of-mouth has been decisively in favor of the PS4 for months now. Many people already intuitively understand this because of what friends and family have mentioned, and those who don't either haven't tuned in yet or simply don't care about games. But, the point is it's an advantage any way you slice it. An argument that the advantage is "small" is one thing, but trying to say it's not an advantage whatsoever is just absurd.
Also, power has always mattered to people. Since our very own Y2Kev put it the most eloquently and succinctly, I like to quote his post for the argument:
Power matters. PS4's power and its guaranteed multiplatform superiority is also an advantage. The only argument that can be made is about whether that advantage is big or small. Your argument would obviously be that it is small.
Hah, of course. UNIQUELY, this will be the first ever gen brand loyalty matters! Why, because online ecosystem! Obviously, since this is the only way to argue there is some inherent strength for the XB1, it's the way Xbox fans keep trying to defend it. But to me, it only has hints of truth. If we are going by ecosystem, the PS4 actually supports the last-gen ecosystem the best - things like most controllers and peripherals being supported by the PS4 out of the box. Gaikai being set up for PS2 and PS1 and PS3 legacy streaming. Since there are actually more PS3 owners worldwide than 360 owners, it's not exactly a statistical crowning for Xbox 360 either. Similarly, 30 million Xbox 360 users never even went online at all. Similar numbers for PS3. So you're looking at, what, 45 million gamers left who would have such an investment toward their gamertag and achievements (and slightly less for PS3)? And you think even a majority of them will be so attached as to skew the results? Well, I can tell you one thing... even if they get a lot of them, many people have already given up XBL for good after the fiasco. So no matter what, they will not be reaching the levels 360 has. Price + Heavier and Tighter competition + loss of all advantages had last gen = marketshare reduction all but guaranteed.
Brand loyalty only matters until the second consumers find something else that either performs better or performs equally but for a cheaper price. Consumers are neither as dumb as many think they are or as smart as some might try to argue, but these are simplistic strengths and weaknesses. They're being worn on their sleeve. Anybody is going to easily be able to distinguish what is going on. Microsoft has had nearly a full year of negative press over XBO versus PS4's nearly year straight of positive press. Only now, finally, after the 180s did things finally start occasionally turning positive for the XB1, and even that is tempered by the fact Microsoft keeps delaying or changing promises or fudging PR or exaggerating versus the PS4 to try to make themselves look better than they are.
Also if you think online matters to this degree where brand loyalty is magically going to make a comeback, then surely you have to factor in the online presence in general. Surely these people can go online at any time and stumble upon the endless negative articles or the endless positive responses toward PS4? The non-stop polls that showed a massive skew toward the PS4? Unscientific, yes, but certainly an indication of which side has the enthusiasm. The insanely slanted social media presence. Why also would gamers not be just as dedicated to their PSN trophies and gamertag and friends?
In other words, even if we want to say this will be a major consideration, it's just as likely to be advantageous for PS4 when you look at the complete picture. An even if I gave you the bulk of the argument, the pool of "dedicated" XBL people is too small to change the results enough to overcome a price difference as colossal as this. I was dedicated XBL last gen, almost all my online friends and family were on 360. Most of us have abandoned ship for PS4. Haven't been able to convince a few, but obviously loyalty only goes so far. Few people are obsessive enough over gamescore or trophies to give a shit about a move; it's not like moving a house or some shit. The friends or family being one place or the other would be a more important consideration, but again every gen simply is a reason for a fresh start. There's no reason why families wouldn't choose the cheaper and more powerful console for obvious reasons.
One, your first sentence here doesn't constitute proof of anything. Two, the heart of my PS3 prediction was right - it remained a destroyed business pillar that wiped out Sony's profits from PS1, PS2 and PSP. They only barely scraped out a second place win where before they insanely dominated in first place. How else do we determine success or failure other than marketshare and profit in terms of a business? People keep trying to bring this up because they hated the hyperbole, and I am not going to relitigate the comment for yet another topic, but the ultimate fact remains: PS3 was a failed business venture in every way that a business would track it (it drastically reduced their marketshare, destroyed their profits and in more than one way diminished Sony's reputation, with issues like the hacking scandal. That they turned it around into a good little system for gamers finally with astonishing PS+ values and a great library in the second half of its life does not change this core fact).
Now, what IS a more salient point is that no one knows what games will be released that will be a hit (INCLUDING indies, by the way), and no one knows if XBO or PS4 will have a game that may not even be announced yet that sets the world on fire.
But even with these undisclosed variables, it's not going to change the overall trajectory as far as I can see. That would have to be a pretty insanely huge game.
Barzul said:
Most of that stuff isn't value-added because you have to PAY EVEN MORE for these features. Xbox Fitness? Free until Nov 2014 and then you have to pay a subscription. To get the most out of pretty much all aspects of the NFL stuff, you need to pay for yet more subscriptions.
About the only thing that is genuinely value-added, meaning you pay for a subscription and you just get it with it, is the dedicated servers, and even that is not for all games as far as we know. Microsoft just is offering them for cheaper than is typical because of their investment in cloud servers and their ability to have this space for developers. It's great, and I would totally agree THAT is an example of value-added. But is that alone enough to surpass the unprecedented values of PS+? I don't see any possible way that could be argued, but then again I don't understand what you see in a lot of your arguments.
uncharted86
Member
When Sony also adds the Middle East and some Asian countries to the already massive difference in number of countries?
Phire Phox
Banned
What are you trying to say? Xbone will have most of those
You're wrong.
See: Every multiplatform game ever this gen.
Also helps that in this more connected society (compared to 05) word spreads like wild-fire.
Not for free...come on now, for someone who always participates in console war threads you're not on your game tonight.
Phire Phox
Banned
are you saying multiplats sell more on 360? That's because Xbox 360 had the higher install base most of this gen.
Theirs millions of people who already have live subscriptions that use Hulu, netflix, etc. It would be no additional cost to use them on Xbone.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
So the XB1 is looking to shrink its potential market by 30 million users? Not a strong talking point.
Yes I'm saying multiplats sell more on 360. It had a higher install base, but it's not enough to skew the results in the way you're thinking. Most multiplats sold better because they had the better performance. See: the popularity of every single DF faceoff thread. People await those like Christmas morning.
I love how you say it's no additional cost...it IS a cost...since you're paying for the subscription. PS4 isn't hiding these features behind PS+ subscription fees "at no additional cost".
AdmiralPain
Banned
Honestly, that reads more like fan fiction than an actual prediction. PS fans yearn for a return to the PS2 glory days but the market is different.
It has a effect on me at least. I don't forget shit like that, and have no plans to buy a Xbone because of that. I'm sure I'm a minority but I doubt I'm alone.
Around 25 million total right who have Gold? I mean they said there's 40 million live subscribers and that includes Silver and GFWL. So around 33% of Xbox users can use it for media.
Whiteshirt
Member
The market isn't different enough for Microsoft to sell a pass-through box for $500+, depending on your territory.
In the long run, it depends on how quick and how low Microsoft can bring the price of the Xbox One down to. The reason why the Wii and Xbox 360 were so popular because they offered social experiences at extremely low prices.
Currently, the Xbox One is extremely expensive and doesn't have knock out titles that explain why the Kinect 2 is worth $500 to replace the Kinect 1 for things like Dance Central.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Those people will then be saving money if they switched so there is a big incentive.
I expect the PS4 to quite easily outsell the XB1. Its got a lot of hype, millions of pre-orders, and supply seems to be there as well. IF Sony manages to get an advantage in US and UK then its game over for MS. Sony's lead will then just start increasing after Europe and Japan join in.
He's an analyst right? So rather than regurgitating Tretton comments and guessing based on amazon selling out, shouldn't he be talking to supply chain people, looking for insights from component company investments and orders, and trying to make actual predictions?
AdmiralPain
Banned
Price is not enough, or else the WiiU would have dominated. If the Xbox One's games resonate more with the audience then Xbox One will sell better.
But Sony have a week lead in the US, so they are likely to genre supplying at least once during November. Nivember will be huge but I don't think it'll be predictable. I do agree that it is irrelevant though - wait for 1Q figures
I don't think brand loyalty, even with achievements, friends lists, gamerscore etc are going to matter that much.
Groups of gamers don't all shift at once, consoles are expensive and they might be waiting for gifts. They drift over bit by bit, and usually the most enthusiastic gamers in a group will move first, with the others following their decision. After all, if you want a next gen console, usually play on 360 with a couple of dozen regular online pals on your friends list, and then the first four or five of them all decide to go to PS4 and tell you they'll be there, you might decide to follow them if that's the way your particular crowd is going. (This is for example only, I'm not interested in a pissing contest over Xbox v ps).
That's why the early adopter crowd is so important, and why MS and Sony are going to be fighting tooth and nail over those people in hotly contested territories like the UK at Christmas- they are basically extended brand ambassadors, and having the most of them early on affects the second wave of sales outside of what those later adopters might go for if left to their own devices.
Groups of gamers don't all shift at once, consoles are expensive and they might be waiting for gifts. They drift over bit by bit, and usually the most enthusiastic gamers in a group will move first, with the others following their decision. After all, if you want a next gen console, usually play on 360 with a couple of dozen regular online pals on your friends list, and then the first four or five of them all decide to go to PS4 and tell you they'll be there, you might decide to follow them if that's the way your particular crowd is going. (This is for example only, I'm not interested in a pissing contest over Xbox v ps).
That's why the early adopter crowd is so important, and why MS and Sony are going to be fighting tooth and nail over those people in hotly contested territories like the UK at Christmas- they are basically extended brand ambassadors, and having the most of them early on affects the second wave of sales outside of what those later adopters might go for if left to their own devices.
ThisWreckage
Banned
Microsoft is fucked as far as momentum goes. Sony will have The Last of Us, Beyond, a God of War game, and a Gran Turismo game all come out in 2014. They've been releasing quality software for years now and people have started to take notice.
Thank god I was sitting down when I read this news...
Anecdotal tidbit: When I asked a Gamestop employee while waiting around for the GTA5 midnight launch, he told me that there were more PS4s than Xbones preordered at that store. Wouldn't divulge specific numbers, but looking around between other peoples' anecdotal bits, looking at rankings on Amazon, I'm having a hard time believing MS will keep NA, let alone have a fighting chance in the rest of the world for the first year.
And a little lol at folks who insist people wont remember MS' pre-180 policies. Probably the same mindset that leads 'em to believe people don't remember/forgave MS for RRoD.
Anecdotal tidbit: When I asked a Gamestop employee while waiting around for the GTA5 midnight launch, he told me that there were more PS4s than Xbones preordered at that store. Wouldn't divulge specific numbers, but looking around between other peoples' anecdotal bits, looking at rankings on Amazon, I'm having a hard time believing MS will keep NA, let alone have a fighting chance in the rest of the world for the first year.
And a little lol at folks who insist people wont remember MS' pre-180 policies. Probably the same mindset that leads 'em to believe people don't remember/forgave MS for RRoD.
Whiteshirt
Member
Protip: the Wii U is more expensive than the Xbox 360 and PS3 without showing any real compelling experiences over current gen hardware or any obvious power advantage. Why blow $300 on a Wii U when a PS4 is only $100 more? Or get a current gen console for $100 less and get the exact gaming performance and a solid library of games?
Not to mention the unfortunate name that confuses every single person to ever step into a retail store. There's nothing good about the Wii U expect for the tablet.
Let's list the obvious problems: the hardcore aren't going to buy the Wii U because it's expensive, isn't better than current gen hardware, they aren't interested in the tablet gimmick and they know that it won't have any software support outside of Nintendo themselves. The casuals won't get the Wii U because they don't even know what it is, it doesn't offer obvious and compelling experiences from the tablet that are far better than the Wii, and it's actually really expensive.
Compare the above situation the Wii U is in to the PS4. They're not remotely similar.
Good point. The fact that neither console has BC and all of your friends aren't going to buy one at launch means that it is pretty painless to switch online services - assuming you aren't obsessing about a gamerscore.
googleplex
Member
The Main reason the Wii U isn't moving is that it was current gen machine at next gen prices.
Whiteshirt
Member
His argument had me rereading his post multiple times because it doesn't really make any sense. It's factually incorrect. Everyone knows the Wii U hasn't got amazing specs and graphically it is not any different from current gen hardware.
Add the problem that the cheapest 8gb version is $260 on Amazon? You're in trouble because that's an obvious price issue: current gen consoles are of similar pice or cheaper...I don't know why Admiralpain suggests that the Wii U has a good price point. It's so obvious why it didn't resonate with anyone, there's no SONY FANBOY NARRATIVE rewriting history here.
Glorified G
Member
1) Nintendo doesn't have the same third party support as the other two. Including the biggest one in the world, EA.
2) X1 and PS4 share majority of the same launch games and will continue to for years to come. The three biggest titles this year, Call of Duty, Fifa, GTA will all eventually migrate to next gen consoles. One is going to be $100 cheaper.
not_so_special
Banned
i think a lot of microsoft fans will be surprised of the america sales,they expect the xbox one to sell better than the ps4 there..and maybe things wont work in that way..europe is lost for ms for sure
as amirox wrote,perception its a very important thing,people who are more into the hobby ( gamers,people who wage console wars,etc etc) help to make that perception,and then the common joe,takes notice of that perception ( even its a false one) and form an opinion
in this case there is the perception that the ps4 is cheap,more powerfull and lets restrictive than microsoft,there is a lot of bad blood Between microsoft and the hardcore users and that has been contagiated to tthe normal user,so the perception about the xbox one its not very positive
also the last two years of xbox soured a lot of people,the paywall for everything,sony have gained a lot of goodwill with their support for the ps3 and things like psn plus
GrizzleBoy
Banned
And one doesn't play Gears/Halo (which are tbh a bigger deal to many gamers than most ps3 exclusives on a 1 on 1 basis), while the other has assimilated a good amount of huge name/iconic exclusives from the other i.e Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Metal Gear Solid etc.
shinra-bansho
Member
That's really not true.
Can it have some manner of effect, perhaps. But the idea that it's the primary reason is frankly very silly.
Most definitely. They should go with what worked with the Lumia phones, Windows 8, and Surface tablets. I see a billion commercials for those three products every day. Most of them usually bashing the competition, so they should definitely make sure they bash the PS4 in their commercials too.
Glorified G
Member
Every franchise you mentioned besides Halo are not first party franchises. (Whether Epic decide to continue to partner with MS is up for debate but they own the Gears ip) You have inadvertently proven my point. Third parties have and will always be the most popular titles and drive both consoles. Both Sony and MS will share most of them, especially the biggest, and one is $100 cheaper.
This may put console quanities into perspective, but 1 small Game - store in the UK have 38 Mega bundles available (PS4 Console, 2 DS4's, Killzone + PSeye for £450) available... so you would assume they would have the least of these, there are 5 other bundles and surely they have alot more or 'mostly 'console only bundles'... thats alot of PS4's in one game store for launch day/night. ( I pre-ordered the mega bundle)
All phase 1 pre-orders guaranteed on the night, All phase 2 pre-orders guaranteed before Christmas now
+Price
+Value
+Performance
+good policies (ontop of the self-defeatist negatives from the competition)
+Hardcore gamers feeding the casuals info ( I literally know NO-ONE ordering X1 and I know alot of gamers locally, and their 'groups' of friends, who in the UK alot used to be X1, now PS4)
All phase 1 pre-orders guaranteed on the night, All phase 2 pre-orders guaranteed before Christmas now
+Price
+Value
+Performance
+good policies (ontop of the self-defeatist negatives from the competition)
+Hardcore gamers feeding the casuals info ( I literally know NO-ONE ordering X1 and I know alot of gamers locally, and their 'groups' of friends, who in the UK alot used to be X1, now PS4)
TacticalFox88
Banned
The winner of this gen will be decided Holiday 2014.
I don't see how you can argue otherwise.
I don't see how you can argue otherwise.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
When was the last time a separately sold Xbox exclusive sold over 10 million copies? Playstation exclusives, if we're looking strictly numbers, definitely move more volume. However, that is not even the point of this discussion. These boxes will play similar games and the biggest difference to the masses is a $100 price tag. Ain't no way around it.
GrizzleBoy
Banned
Well no because my point was that a bunch of proven system selling software for one console has turned multiplat while one retains its system moving titles.
If and when price is not an issue, those things can play a role.
People who love Halo this gen are going to want to play it next gen but thres only one place to do so.
Halo, Gears, (timed) Titanfall and CoD map packs are going to establish X1 as the console for shooters and we love our shooters.
ThisWreckage
Banned
This gen is already decided. Unless Sony does something catastrophically stupid then they will be the worldwide leader.