This is not an advantage for either console. I bet the average gamer who only buys COD and Madden doesn't know this. Power will imo always be irrelevant advantage if the differences are not hugely discernible i.e. Wii vs 360/PS3 where it was HD vs. SD. In my college I work as a resident assistant and this gives me a chance to come in contact with average gamers and when I can ask about why they chose their console of choice, it comes down to stuff like free online (PS3), cheaper price (Xbox), that's what my friends have etc. To me this generation will battled on price and user experience whoever finds the right balance between those two things wins. Brand loyalty does mean shit because this gen is unlike any other as it is coming off the back of the first online generation where users have become even more tied to the ecosystems they game on, things like achievements and trophies factor in. I'm surprised you're still making broad predictions like
given how wrong you were with your PS3 predictions, that alone is proof that companies can turn around and gain advantage on their competitors. Who knows what games will be released, what services, peripherals etc. that will be released over the course of this gen to swing the advantage to either side? No one does. Your point on which provides the most value Xbox Live or PSN+ is flawed because it just isn't easily measurable, someone can see free games on PS+ vs. Xbox Fitness, NFL stuff and dedicated servers and that is what they would consider as more valuable.
I think you are giving way, WAY too much credit to this 'staying in the ecosystem' nonsense. I know droves of people that have left iOS for Android in the past couple of years, despite having been Apple-centric for 4-5 years before that. They got fed up with Apple's proprietary bullshit and left.
I've been an Xbox gamer since 2001, yet before all the 180s I was leaving Microsoft COMPLETELY. That's despite 12 years as an Xbox-only gamer and over 270,000 Gamerscore. I put thousands and thousands of hours into my gamertag and my online presence/persona on Xbox, but the shit they pulled made me say "enough is enough".
Fortunately for them the 180s happened, so I will buy their console after all. However, I'm buying both systems. I'm letting my gold subscription
expire, and PS4 will be my PRIMARY console going forward. The XB1 will be relegated to playing the few console exclusives I really care about, which at this point is mainly just Halo and Project Spark. I will not buy a single multiplatform title for XB1, meaning moving forward they have lost hundreds of potential game purchases from me.
I won't be playing multiplayer AT ALL on the XB1. I might get a PS+ subscription, but maybe not since they don't FORCE me to in order to use apps like Netflix, but since the value is actually there I might do it.
I really don't think some people quite understand how big of a blow this was to MS's reputation and brand image.
The $100 price difference matters less than the goodwill that has been lost, and I mean that with complete seriousness. If you're someone looking to shell out $400 or more on a gaming/entertainment console that you don't need, and likely already have previous gen PS360, then you're not going to bat too much of an eye at an extra $100 if it's a system you want.
Likewise the power difference isn't going to be the deciding factor either. It never has in the console arena. Power concerns are more of a PC gamer thing than a console gamer thing (for the most part).
But at the end of a day when you lose the faith and trust of your customer base, when you piss in their mouth and tell them its lemonade, when you blatantly lie or spout PR jargon instead of being frank and honest, people don't forgive or forget easily. Hence why MS will likely only see around $1000 in sales to me tops for this entire gen (console and 7-8 games tops), while PS4 will literally see over $8-10k of my hard-earned money by the time the generation is over. I'll likely own at least 2, if not 3 or 4 PS4s, but I'll only own the one XB1. And if it dies on me like the 360 did I will not be replacing it.
Even for someone like me that has been in the MS "ecosystem" so firmly and for so long, it's still a no-brainer to abandon that ecosystem after the stunt they pulled. For someone less firmly entrenched than me, it will be even easier.
PS4 stands a very good chance not only to win worldwide, but in the USA too, and not just at launch. No one can predict the future, but it really is their game to lose. MS isn't going anywhere, but they're going to take an ego drumming for years to come and hopefully they'll learn their lesson before the next weirdly-named console of theirs is upon us, and maybe even at some point during this generation.
