Night Angel
Member
That's an excellent observation. I don't have an answer that I can give with any certainty. Perhaps brand loyalty was a factor. I don't know.
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*SHOCKING* PS4 to outsell Xbox One at launch, predicts Pachter
- Thread starter fluffydelusions
- Start date
yep saw some at walmart the day after launch.
anexanhume
Member
I wouldn't look at the previous console launches to get an idea of what launch availability will be like. Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3 all came out pre mobile device boom. Now electronics manufacturers have capacity to turn out millions of units a month of mobile phones and tablets. Fabs have similarly had to increase capacity due to the boom in demand. Production capacity should be more readily available for all the console launches. Moreover, PS4 and Xbox One only have to have one large chip fabbed and yielded - not two. There's going to be millions of units sold before the end of the calendar year.
28nm has been going for two years now and the APUs essentially have two previously taped out parts lashed together in one chip with some other custom bits. There's not a whole of risk from the fabrication side. That's why they're increasing clocks on the Xbox One - because it yields well.
28nm has been going for two years now and the APUs essentially have two previously taped out parts lashed together in one chip with some other custom bits. There's not a whole of risk from the fabrication side. That's why they're increasing clocks on the Xbox One - because it yields well.
BruiserBear
Banned
lol at the Amazon reference. Not insider info, or sources at GameStop. Just checking Amazon pre-order options.
Cap'n Cook
Member
Very BOLD prediction by Pachtradamus but what I and everyone would like to know is COD, will they make another one after Ghost?
Please stop asking for that.
Your kinectless sku relegates the kinect to accessory status. If its considered an accessory it will not be used by developers
oconnomiyaki
Member
Culture differences. Xbox as a brand really screams 'Murrica.
ZehDon
Gold Member
Judging from the Xbox One's current launch titles, it's not going to be used by developers anyway. Hell, most of Microsoft's exclusives barely use it, and only one of them uses it exclusively - and it's tired behind a subscription service.
OT: Is this really news? Sure, I think Pachter is pretty close, but he's really only pointing out what virtually any observer has already seen: Sony's got the launch in the bag in terms of sales, mostly because they'll simply be able to pump more PS4's out in time, but Microsoft are going to do damn fine at launch.
The interesting story - the real story - is what happens four weeks+ after launch. I think Sony's momentum is going to carry farther than Microsoft's, mostly on the back of goodwill - or in Microsoft's case, the lack of goodwill. But, of course, Pachter didn't jump in with insight on that story.
mr teaspoon
Member
Good lord, people can be insufferable assholes when it comes to Pachter.
It's not as if he's approaching this from the angle of 'GUESS WHAT EVERYBODY?' I always watch Ask Pach (edit: Pach Attack), and appreciate getting a business persons view of the industry as opposed to gaming journalists/hobbyists.
It's not as if he's approaching this from the angle of 'GUESS WHAT EVERYBODY?' I always watch Ask Pach (edit: Pach Attack), and appreciate getting a business persons view of the industry as opposed to gaming journalists/hobbyists.
Link is borked.
AdmiralPain
Banned
Well the PS4 will launch in more countries so that's not much of a prediction. I would be more interested in hearing his thought on the Xb1-Ps4 battle in markets where both will have a presence. Can the PS4 outsell the XB1 in the US? Now that would be news. I don't think it will happen.
Not to mention all of the F2P games available at launch that are pretty solid titles on PC. I play 4 of them already though.
The perceived value is quite high for them really. Not only are they cheaper, but there's more games to play for free that will help people that might not be able to get a bunch of games at launch.
I'm not sure that both will totally sell out.
America, sure, but what about countries that were not so enarmoured with the 360, that threw huge fits about Kinnect always listening and have no been marketed to hell and back yet? I can go on German Amazon and buy an Xbone for Nov 22 delivery, no problem. That must not mean anything, but I think Europe will be a sterner challenge than just shipping enough. There has not been a large marketing campaign, at least I haven't seen anything besides posters and trade-in offets in electronics retailers, but every kid and gamer that I know or know of knows what is coming this November.
America, sure, but what about countries that were not so enarmoured with the 360, that threw huge fits about Kinnect always listening and have no been marketed to hell and back yet? I can go on German Amazon and buy an Xbone for Nov 22 delivery, no problem. That must not mean anything, but I think Europe will be a sterner challenge than just shipping enough. There has not been a large marketing campaign, at least I haven't seen anything besides posters and trade-in offets in electronics retailers, but every kid and gamer that I know or know of knows what is coming this November.
travisbickle
Member
You believe the Xbox will outsell the PS4 in the USA?
Problem is though MS long term support sucks, if the Xbox is behind the PS4 for the first year or so it'll never catch up. Also conceding the US to the PS4 is going to look very bad seeing as it's their primary market and was a complete lock last gen.
Generally, the Xbox brand and its types of games and services cater to the US better. The problem the Xbox brand has is catering to Europe and Asia, which the PlayStation brand excels at while still putting up a decent fight in the US.
They absolutely will if they outsell the competition.
Remember the days of E3s during PS2 dominance? They would show charts how they were kicking everyone ass every conference, it was kinda silly.
So yeah Sony loves to flaunt their success, they will again if they achieve it
Syphon Filter
Member
MS aint no joke in the U.S.
Ya. It certainly looks like it will happen. More preorders pretty much guaranties PS4 will outsell Xbone in US.
I am perplexed, because Atari was once king of the US market in gaming, so was Nintendo with NES and SNES, so was Sony with PS1 and PS2, so was Nintendo again with the Wii and MS with 360.
That market is highly unpredictable. The argument that Xbox "brand" is strong in US holds no water, because its sure as hell not as strong as the PS2 brand was and look how the PS3 did.
99.8% people who buy consoles are not loyal to any company, there is evidence for that if you look at history. Wii was super successful in the US, sold gangbusters. Look at the Wii U now
Glorified G
Member
That $500 price is. Just ask Sony how well they did with that in the US
This was the first online multiplayer generation where people were more invested in ecosystems and such. Leaving Xbox for PS4 and vice-versa is now like leaving iOS for Android. I think things that did not come into play in previous generation now do. Do I think PS4 will outsell the Xbox @ launch in the US? Maybe. But over the entire generation? No chance imo.
Which was more of "no joke" - PS2 before the PS3 gen, or 360 before the Xbox One gen?
Although the situation is no longer quite as catastrophic, the Xbox One is coming off a system that is actually substantially less successful than the PS2 was popping toward the PS3. And did that stop the PS3 from tanking in those early years? No, because it had an obscene price and it flagged in several key areas - Microsoft had a year head start, Microsoft had the best version of multiplatforms, and Microsoft was massively ahead in their online integration and UI. And, for many (if not most) people, they also had the best controller that gen.
This go around, Microsoft has none of those advantages. It is significantly less powerful than PS4 and the XBO will have the worst versions of multiplatforms and Sony has largely erased all the important advantages XBL had over PSN for PS4 (this time around Microsoft hopes to introduce several new advantages with Snap and dedicated severs for most big games, but it won't offset the rest of the backslides). It has the most value for any subscription service with PS+, it is $100 cheaper, it is actually launching a week ahead of XBO in America, and only one week behind in Europe (where it is still winning the pre-order game massively). Its indie program is just massively further ahead than Microsoft's, it has so far not "delayed or modified" any promises regarding what is going to be available at launch quite unlike Microsoft, they do not have a trust deficit right now, they have a competitive and now universally praised new controller (Xbox 360 controller was a core advantage MS had over PS3, now at worst they're even).
Brand loyalty don't mean shit. Consumers are going to see a system that has any of the big games Microsoft has, usually in better quality, but with the all important death knell - that $100 difference. For the price of a system and a few months PSN, they don't even need to buy any games - you just get shit for free - but they can buy the PS4 and Battlefield 4 or Call of Duty and a PSN subscription for around the same price as a XBO. These are not the type of gamers that give half a shit about the camera either, so try selling that on the reason they need to spend $100 more.
While I think the 180s ultimately salvaged the Microsoft Xbox One and it will not be a disaster like Wii U's numbers, it will lose marketshare this gen versus what they had last gen. There's no way they can match it without the advantages 360 had over PS3, especially now that it is losing the pricing war hard.
travisbickle
Member
But it ain't like Sony and their Playstation is some unknown brand. They dominated with the PS1 and 2, and according to this arstechnica chart they sold ~23million PS3s (compared to ~38million 360s). Over 20 million consoles in the US means there is huge brand awareness for the console that's cheaper, and rumour has it more powerful.
Well the reason I think MS will get the early lead in the US is simply because I think they will concentrate most of their efforts there. Simple. And for people saying 100 more, your looking at it from the gamer perspective. Sure a customs would be turned off if the xbox didn't come with a kinect. Regardless if people here like it or not, some people do find the gimmick interesting.
The abandonment rate among the non hardcore isn't going to be as big as people think. If that was the case the wii u would be doing gangbusters in the US
The abandonment rate among the non hardcore isn't going to be as big as people think. If that was the case the wii u would be doing gangbusters in the US
Dragonborn
Member
That is why it baffles me when people say X1 will sell more because Xbox. They are either new and this is their first gen or they've got some seriously bad memory.
As for Titan Fall, I still fail to see why people think it'll drive X1 sales so much. It's on the 360 and Pc. Yes it will move consoles but the crowd that buys CoD in droves won't shell out $500+ when they can get it on their 360s. Unless I'm missing something here?
That may be true but doesn´t matter in this case because nobody except hardcore gamers (and probably die hard MS fans) is going to spend 500 bucks on that thing.
Even IF Titanfall became big, there's no possible way it could be the catalyst for changing the console war. For one, it's coming to 360 and PC as well. Any self respecting gamer who had doubts about XB1 would not therefore get one for Titanfall, they'd simply get one for 360 or PC. Second of all, it's coming out for PS4 sometime after Microsoft finishes off the one year exclusivity. So Titanfall 2 and beyond, I presume, will be coming to the other systems at the same time (although maybe exclusive DLC still on XBO), and Titanfall 1 will likely have a "All DLC included" release for the PS4 a year after the XBO's version. I'm speculating a bit here about how they will package the PS4 version, but it is coming.
The other problem with so many of Microsoft's focus for XB1 is that its usually so US-centric. Sony's clearly demonstrating a global console with global appeal, but Microsoft just wants to try to win US and the UK, and there's no way it's winning the UK this go around so it's going to have to hope for having a larger user share in the US, and even that's going to be reduced versus what 360 did for the sheer fact that it's starting at a much higher price and has no year headstart over its primary competition. There are so many things that will be working against Microsoft even matching their user share this gen that it's absurd. It's like Microsoft didn't even try to think some things through.
It is amusing how badly some people want to turn Titanfall into the next-big-phenomenon, but those things make themselves and are usually unpredictable, people wishing it to be will not be the catalyst. It'll have to do it on its own terms and we're no where near close to proving that yet.
AdmiralPain
Banned
Yes, handily.
man, there's so many quotes that are going to be fun to revisit in a few years.
This is not an advantage for either console. I bet the average gamer who only buys COD and Madden doesn't know this. Power will imo always be irrelevant advantage if the differences are not hugely discernible i.e. Wii vs 360/PS3 where it was HD vs. SD. In my college I work as a resident assistant and this gives me a chance to come in contact with average gamers and when I can ask about why they chose their console of choice, it comes down to stuff like free online (PS3), cheaper price (Xbox), that's what my friends have etc. To me this generation will battled on price and user experience whoever finds the right balance between those two things wins. Brand loyalty does mean shit because this gen is unlike any other as it is coming off the back of the first online generation where users have become even more tied to the ecosystems they game on, things like achievements and trophies factor in. I'm surprised you're still making broad predictions like
given how wrong you were with your PS3 predictions, that alone is proof that companies can turn around and gain advantage on their competitors. Who knows what games will be released, what services, peripherals etc. that will be released over the course of this gen to swing the advantage to either side? No one does. Your point on which provides the most value Xbox Live or PSN+ is flawed because it just isn't easily measurable, someone can see free games on PS+ vs. Xbox Fitness, NFL stuff and dedicated servers and that is what they would consider as more valuable.
PS4 will outsell XBO in every region.
PS3 would have too had they launched at the same time for the same price, and even despite launching between a year and eighteen month later depending on your region, and being considerably more expensive, PS3 is still going to have sold more once all is done.
With a big disadvantage Sony outsold MS, with a big advantage they're going to outsell them much more.
PS3 would have too had they launched at the same time for the same price, and even despite launching between a year and eighteen month later depending on your region, and being considerably more expensive, PS3 is still going to have sold more once all is done.
With a big disadvantage Sony outsold MS, with a big advantage they're going to outsell them much more.
I don't think you've been paying attention very much.
Both the US and UK are heavy MS territory and Sony will handily beat them both. After that, Sony literally dominates everywhere else.
The problem they're facing now is that the American people are becoming anti-corporation day by day, and Microsoft's bad PR pre-180 really painted them as another one of those corporations getting in line to bleed you dry.
Sony's more humble attitude and attempts to provide more value per dollar spent come at a time when America is becoming disillusioned with large companies that come across as attempting to get more money from you for the same things you used to get for cheaper.
ThisWreckage
Banned
They'll make major gains in the NA market and they'll clean up elsewhere. The Xbox One will be slaughtered on the worldwide level.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'm assuming Pachter's referring to either shipments or global sales? Since I really can't see them doing those numbers just in the US at launch.
Couldn't have said it better myself. Great post.
Yep this reflects my thoughts on the matter as well. While I do think MS will still sell more in the US market, Sony take back a good chunk of the market share and absolutely slaughter XBone in the EU and Asia.
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
Lol Americans are not becoming anti-corporation. What a ridiculous statement.
Pretty much. You hear the vocal few, but we still buy our apple products like crack and eat fast food like crazy.
Also the majority of people I know who play games don't even watch e3 and have no idea about their policies
Then why does Apple still sell millions of Iphones?
Dreams-Visions
Member
In the US?
I think it'll be very close. Certainly within 100k of one another. 'Murican's love their Xbox.
Xbox One will sell boatloads.
I think it'll be very close. Certainly within 100k of one another. 'Murican's love their Xbox.
Fuck the games. It's about the community. It's something the PS2 generation and generations before didn't have as a factor. People are going to buy Xbox One's because they want to maintain the relationships they've established over Live. Many have Live paid for in advance. They'll buy in to continue their experience, which they've largely enjoyed.
Xbox One will sell boatloads.