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[jiggle]

Its now less than 4 weeks away from BF
If there's plan for gta bundle
We will have known by now, no?

It IS strange they don't have any holidays bundle at all

 

[airmangataosenai]

Something I missed earlier: Combined network/retail sales are just 1 million off from last year's combined software sales over the holiday season. That's unbelievably crazy..... my brain can't process what this holiday will look like for them.

 

[N.Domixis]

Its now less than 4 weeks away from BF
If there's plan for gta bundle
We will have known by now, no?

It IS strange they don't have any holidays bundle at all

It shows how confident as fuck they are, going into the holidays in NA with no bundles like a bad ass.

Spoiler

Or crazy stupid...

 

[cafemomo]

Other than wiping out all of the retained earnings of SCE, you're right lol.

If kutaragi was still in control, the PS4 would be able to take us to the moon!

 

[KillerMan91]

- restructuring expenses that will be included only in the second half of the fiscal year
- depreciation
- disposal of unprofitable assets
- foreign exchange rate
- more competitive landscape due to promotional activities by competitors in the holiday season in markets such as US and Australia.
- network services will have an estimated negative impact of 12 billion yen
- costs related to the launch of their cloud TV service in the US

Those are the reasons they gave for the conservative forecast in G&NS.

Oh. Thanks! That explains things.

 

[serversurfer]

There's pretty much no way to use this number to accurately infer what the PS4 has sold-through to date.

Not true. Retailers want each shipment to last exactly a week, so the last unit is going off the shelf just as the truck is backing in with this week's shipment. It takes about three weeks for a shipment to go from factory to the store.

As such, your sold-in for any given point should be roughly equal to your sold-through a month later. For example, they'd shipped 10.2M through June, and had sold "over 10M" a week or so in to August. Therefore, it seems safe to say they've sold through "roughly 13.5M" by now. They maybe hit that last week, if the DriveClub launch was bigger than expected, or maybe next week if it didn't hit projections.

Of course, all of this assumes everything is going as planned. That said, I see no particular reason to believe Sony are currently under- or over-shipped.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I feel like there's a lot of assumption, too much to determine a particularly accurate picture. It would be like saying chartzzz rationale and extrapolation makes for an accurate picture.

Does every big box retailer adhere to your proposed rule of thumb? At what point does preparation for holiday supply begin? Are there territorial differences? At what point is a unit considered sold, (revenue has standards, but unit recognition has varied)? Have expected sales and actual sales aligned or have hardware impacting events caused deviation?

Further to that, I don't see why people feel the need to guestimate when we have actual sales data available.

 

[Chezzymann]

PS4 13.5 million
Wii 13.17 million

Shipment at the same point.

Wii 20.13 million by December.

Might make a chart later.

I don't know if the PS4 will go into warp speed like the Wii did, but it'll easily surpass 17 million by december.

 

[Welfare]

I did a charts with the data we have... I know PS2 was most of time just in Japan and it was production shipment but you will have a ideia.

Wii will mostly surpass PS4 in shipment next quarter and PS2 start to get on fire after the second year.

Mind adding in Xbox?

 

[jiggle]

If kutaragi was still in control, the PS4 would be able to take us to the moon!

5D

 

[Chezzymann]

I did a charts with the data we have... I know PS2 was most of time just in Japan and it was production shipment but you will have a ideia.

Wii will mostly surpass PS4 in shipment next quarter and PS2 start to get on fire after the second year.

Yeah I don't see PS4 outselling the PS2, its legs probably won't be anywhere near as long. Although with these sales I think its safe to say it'll easily outsell the PS3 even if it does die down a few years from now.

 

[serversurfer]

I feel like there's a lot of assumption, too much to determine a particularly accurate picture. It would be like saying chartzzz rationale and extrapolation makes for an accurate picture.

Does every big box retailer adhere to your proposed rule of thumb? At what point does preparation for holiday supply begin? Are there territorial differences? At what point is a unit considered sold, (revenue has standards, but unit recognition has varied)? Have expected sales and actual sales aligned or have hardware impacting events caused deviation?

Actually, after I posted that, I was thinking that larger retailers may maintain a couple weeks of stock — half in distribution centers — to avoid OOS situations. So that would make for a five week lead, which lines up more nicely with Q1/Gamescom numbers.

It seems they can physically move a large number of units in a very short period of time, so I don't see any significant need to "stock up" for the holidays. Certainly not dating back in to September shipments. They had a million-unit launch day. I'm sure they can cover holiday demand from a logistics standpoint, even starting the process after October 1st.

Further to that, I don't see why people feel the need to guestimate when we have actual sales data available.

Eh? What's their current WW sell-through?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Eh? What's their current WW sell-through?

We have shipments through September. Actual sales data. That's what the thread is about...

My point is that I don't see the need to try and do chartzzzz-like extrapolation of these figures into up-to-the-minute sell-through guespeculation.

 

[serversurfer]

We have shipments through September. Actual sales data. That's what the thread is about...

My point is that I don't see the need to try and do chartzzzz-like extrapolation of these figures into up-to-the-minute sell-through guespeculation.

Fair enough. It's not really an extrapolation though. It's just how the supply chain works. Your sell-in is your projected sell-through roughly 4-5 weeks out (in this case). No, we don't know how many have sold through to date, but we do know the plan was for ~13.5M. Maybe they actually sold more or less through "nowish," but if that was the plan, they'd have shipped that amount instead.

As I said, this all assumes stock levels are exactly where they should be, but I see no particular reason to think they're significantly off in the case of the PS4. So it seems likely that 13.5-millionth shipped unit will be sold sometime in the coming week, give or take.

 

[anexanhume]

As per how many PS4's Sony will be able to ship in FY14Q3 [Oct-Dec], any estimate less than 6.5M suggests the holiday quarter will be worse for PS4 relative to the previous 3 calendar quarter than any such comparison for PS3 in its entire life.

PS3 WW Shipments
----------------------------------------------------
     | FYQ1  | FYQ2  | FYQ3  | FYQ4  |      |      |
----------------------------------------------------
Year | Ap-Jn | Jl-Sp | Oc-Dc | Ja-Mr |  FY  |  LTD | 
----------------------------------------------------
FY06 |  N/A  |  N/A  |  1.7  |  1.8  |  3.5 |  3.5 |
FY07 |  0.7  |  1.3  |  4.9  |  2.2  |  9.1 | 12.6 |
FY08 |  1.6  |  2.4  |  4.5  |  1.6  | 10.1 | 22.7 |
FY09 |  1.1  |  3.2  |  6.5  |  2.2  | 13.0 | 35.7 |
FY10 |  2.4  |  3.5  |  6.3  |  2.1  | 14.3 | 50.0 |
FY11 |  1.8  |  3.7  |  6.5  |  1.9  | 13.9 | 63.9 |
FY12 |          PS2 + PS3 FY Total = 16.5M         |
FY13 |  1.1  |  2.0  |  3.3  |  0.7  |  7.1 |      |
FY14 |  0.8  |  0.8  |       |       |  1.6 |      |

Year | FYQ3 Sales as % of FYQ4-FYQ2 Sales |
-------------------------------------------
FY06 |               N/A                  |
FY07 |              129%                  |
FY08 |               73%                  | <- Worst PS3 Holiday Quarter relative to preceding 3 quarters
FY09 |              110%                  |
FY10 |               78%                  |
FY11 |               86%                  |
FY13 |              106%                  |
AVG  |               97%                  |

Thus with PS4 WW shipments from FY13Q4 - FY14Q2 equal to 9M units

|If Q3 shipments are _ of Q4-Q2 | Then Q3 shipments are |
---------------------------------------------------------
|               73%             |         6.57M         |
|               78%             |         7.02M         |
|               86%             |         7.74M         |
|               97%             |         8.73M         |
|              106%             |         9.54M         |
|              110%             |         9.90M         |
|              129%             |        11.61M         |

So I would be shocked if Sony were unable to ship at least 6.5M although I suppose my relative comparison could be flawed, maybe Q2 shipments were unusually large due to Destiny but as it stands it strongly looks like the PS4 will ship 20M+ LTD by the end of FY14Q3, probably even a bit more than that if this comparison holds true.

Good comparison but those years you're comparing the PS3 at $300 or less and heavily bundled. It does show that 4.5M should probably be an absolute floor which says any prediction under 18M is probably bonkers.

Of course, that's just the numbers. I think the PS4 has a number of other factors in its favor. I'm not looking at the Destiny bundle as blowing their load too early considering it was only a $10 discount and Destiny doesn't appear to be the massive system mover everyone thought. Holiday still looks pretty good. We've got the usual titles like CoD, Far Cry and AC, but Dragon Age and the GTAV re-release should do well. I think PS4 will likely sell north of 1M in November and December NPDs.

They've been consistently surpassing my expectations. I said 12M floor after December, 15M floor in the April range and their own estimate is quite low at 17M.

I'm excited about next year for both ps4 and xb1. They could push out their first chip revisions and a price drop and there's a stellar lineup of first and third party games coming, particularly a strong Spring IMO. I'm also happy this should be the last holiday for significant cross-gen releases.

 

[Jacir]

Can someone link me to the Sony FY13 Q4 thread because I can't realy find it?

I already have side by side the following:
Sony Q3 thread back on Feb 6,2014
Sony FY14 Q1 thread on July 31,2014
Sony GC 10M thread on August 12, 2014
And obviously this thread


Thanks in advance!

 

[chithanh]

Can someone link me to the Sony FY13 Q4 thread because I can't realy find it?

There is no Q4 thread, after the end of Q4 they give full year results.
[thread=818569]Sony full year results - $1.25bn loss, PS operating loss $78m, PS sales 14.6m, 17m fc[/thread]

 

[Kinan]

Finally got around to upload the updated graphs.

Firstly, updated launch aligned graph with all shipped data now:

PS4 has finally crossed streams with Wii, but the epic battle for all-time number 1 is not over yet, PS4 still has a chance to stay at least on par...

Xbox1 points are under assumption that it sells at least as much as the xbox360, top of the error bar means it xbox360 would have sold zero units in that quarter.


And as a bonus we have a rare possibility to compare shipped and sold data:

You can see that after launch PS4 was selling pretty much constantly ~780k units per month. If that speed was constant it would sit at ~11.4M units sold to consumer at the end of the last quarter.

 

[DBT85]

Thanks for the updated charts Kinan.

 

[Kinan]

Thanks for the updated charts Kinan.

thanks for bringing the new data to my attention, DBT85, would have missed em with all the travel in the last weeks.

 

[Tratorn]

You can see that after launch PS4 was selling pretty much constantly ~780k units per month. If that speed was constant it would sit at ~11.4M units sold to consumer at the end of the last quarter.

Surely nice to know, but I doubt that the sales from july to september are the same like from april to june. Should be higher, especially september where it sold 540k alone in US. Even if they sold a bit less in august because some waited for the Destiny bundle/white PS4, the bump in september should be notably higher.
So I'd see the 11.4m as a pretty conservative prediction.

And yes, thanks for the updates.

 

[Pinktaco]

It'll be interesting to see whether or not the recent XBO price cut will have an effect of the ps4 sales. Most agree to the notion that Sony should be able to push 20+ million units in the first year, but what if the XBO suddenly becomes more popular? Maybe a bit of a stretch, but we'll see how this all plays out

 

[DBT85]

It'll be interesting to see whether or not the recent XBO price cut will have an effect of the ps4 sales. Most agree to the notion that Sony should be able to push 20+ million units in the first year, but what if the XBO suddenly becomes more popular? Maybe a bit of a stretch, but we'll see how this all plays out

Didn't it have a price cut and free Titanfall at release and it didn't make it more popular?

 

[Asd202]

It is feeling like the PS2-Xbox-Gamecube Generation again.

To me it's more like PS-N64-Sega Saturn

 

[jcm]

Sony stock is hanging around it's 52 week high. Guess the market agrees that outside of that big mobile hit it was a pretty decent quarter.

 

[stryke]

It'll be interesting to see whether or not the recent XBO price cut will have an effect of the ps4 sales. Most agree to the notion that Sony should be able to push 20+ million units in the first year, but what if the XBO suddenly becomes more popular? Maybe a bit of a stretch, but we'll see how this all plays out

The price cut is in one country. Big woop.

 

[2thepoint]

Sony stock is hanging around it's 52 week high. Guess the market agrees that outside of that big mobile hit it was a pretty decent quarter.

The stock price is making gains as Black Friday approaches.

Expect a battle of the titans at local branches of Target, Best Buy & Walmart.

Martial law may be declared in some states.