Random_Hajile said:
Granted, Nintendo has not released anything as notorious 32X, though Virtual Boy came close. On the other hand, with Game Boy Advance SP
(Nintendo of America plans to discontinue the original GBA) and DS
running side-by-side, the company does have two systems confusing
consumers, eating resources, and distracting management.
About fucking time someone in the press writes that...
Random_Hajile said:
Along this same line, Nintendo needs to acknowledge the competition.
Nintendo executives say that DS and PSP were made for different
audiences. The truth is that when customers walk into Wall-Mart or
GameStop with $200, they are going to compare DS and PSP and choose one
over the other.
Self-explanatory really, but highlighted because people need to get it through their heads.
Random_Hajile said:
And these annual shortages
whats with that? Nintendo has a
shortage of DS units. Do they think that is chic? They had similar
shortages after the launches of GameCube, N64, and Super NES. You would
learn how to manage inventory by now.
There is no logical reason for Nintendo to waste this window of time
before the launch of PSP. Yet here we are. With PSP supposedly
launching in three months, Nintendo is excitedly telling the press how
they cannot keep up with demand for DS.
Why in the world are GameStop and Electronics Boutique stores, arguably
the most influential chains in gaming, only receiving six DS units per
week? They should be saturated with DS systems.
The Nintendo of old, the one that sold approximately 100 million NESs,
simply tried harder. In the early days, NCL president Hiroshi Yamauchi
personally courted third-party publishers. Nintendo of America
president Minoru Arakawa met with store owners in New York and promised
to buy back unsold merchandise and helped set up a few store displays.
In order to regain market share, Nintendo needs to return to its former
Avis mentality. It needs to try harder.
Lots of gems here. Nintendo has lost its old competitiveness (the N64 era was the beginning of the "new Nintendo" IMHO). Iwata is not an ideal successor for the man, the myth, the legend that is Hiroshi Yamauchi, IMHO. In the end, Nintendo needs to try harder, but only if it truly is serious about making a play for #1 again.....at this point, they are in the very unenviable position of 3rd place in the most important video game market in the world (yes, don't kid yourself thinking that Japan is the most important market---the US demand and sales of games far outpaces Japan, and more and more, Western tastes and culture are reflecting game design) as well as having to defend their portable monopoly from the biggest threat it's ever faced since GameBoy was released. All in the span of few years' time. Nintendo certainly doesn't need to be #1 to be profitable, they've proven that. But they've always had GameBoy to rely on for easy money. If PSP provides a strong challenge and takes a big chunk out of Nintendo's handheld market (thus taking away potential new sales of existing/future Nintendo handheld products), will Nintendo still be able to "go through the motions" of console competition and be a profitable company? Which leads nicely into Steve's next point.
Random_Hajile said:
2. Forget the bottom line.
In 1990, Nintendo and the NES owned 93 percent of the U.S. console
business. In 1994, the hottest year for 16-bit, the Super NES commanded
approximately 48 percent of the U.S. market and ruled in Japan. By the
end of the N64 generation, Nintendo was down to 33 percent of the
American console market. With GameCube, Nintendo is down to
approximately 15 percent.
That is a nearly steady drop of 50 percent from one generation to the
next.
The typical Nintendo response to this is something along the line of
their console business always remaining profitable. Its a good and
persuasive response. Even as Sony strangled Nintendo in all three world
markets in the last year of the original PlayStation, Nintendo managed
to make money with N64 while Sony leaked like a sieve.
The problem is that if Nintendos share of the market keeps getting
smaller, the next generation will not be profitable.
And there it is....obviously Nintendo has a core base of users to sell to...but it doesn't have the mass appeal it used to, and
that is what this console war is all about. A console will not make it unless it reaches that audience.
Random_Hajile said:
3. Know your market and stick to it.
Others say that Nintendo can indeed change its stripes. Look at
Cadillac, says Taylor. It used to be the car your grandfather
drove in the suburbs. Now, with its change of image, Cadillac is the
high-prestige car for urban drivers.
I think it's possible for Nintendo to make over their image (and not in the desperate, we're-different-from-Sony-and-MS-but-we're-still-hardcore-and-cool lameass TV ads way) the right way. Sony's executive/marketing staff understood the direction that gaming was headed and what they needed to do to get it there. Nintendo, much like, the music business, was too focused on keeping its current revenue model than with exploring new markets. It's obvious to anyone that Nintendo has sacrificed marketshare for profitability. But will that end up being a costly mistake?
Random_Hajile said:
4. Americanize, Americanize, Americanize
The bottom has dropped out of the Japanese video game market. It
shrank by one-third in 2001 alone. Japan, which bought the least
hardware and the most software in the past, was the most profitable
market in games. Now that the drop has occurred, North American is the
most lucrative market.
Only one Japanese company made it into the U.S. markets top 10 games
of 2003Nintendo. Nintendo had four games in the top 10two of
which were Pokemon.
Cute, Fluffy, and Funny, words that describe so many
of the best Japanese games, just dont appeal the way they used to.
American audiences are into speed, action, violence. Americans like 3D
adventures and first-person shooters. These are not big genres in
Japan. Sports, other than soccer, are huge in the United States.
Sports, other than soccer, do not sell well in Japan.
Nintendo has one shooterMetroid Prime. The company has
abandoned sports.
Nintendo needs to develop a Western-centric development network,
says Taylor, and he is right. The problem is that with the admirable
exception of Retro Studios, Nintendo seems content letting second-party
partners like Rare and Silicon Knights slip away.
Again, this goes back to my comments on Step 1. I kinda disagree on his comment on Rare though, their GoldenEye success went to their head. Conker was (and still is) lame (the XBL game looks like crap IMHO), Rare's other Xbox games are worthless. I think it was a good idea for Nintendo to dump Rare. Silicon Knights OTOH, that was less-than-brilliant.
Random_Hajile said:
5. Keep doing what you do right
As angry and pessimistic as some gamers have become about Nintendo,
other insiders believe that Nintendo is doing many things exactly
right. Nintendo is listening to a good mixture of customers and game
developers, says Richard Doherty, research director of
Envisioneering.
Had Nintendo read the reviewers and bulletin boards, the Pokemon series
might have died two or three years ago. It didnt, and Pokemon
Ruby and Sapphire both made it on to the NPD Groups list
of the top 10 selling games of 2003. Fire Red and Leaf
Green are among the top sellers of 2004.
Many reviewers complained about the cel-shaded look of the new
Zelda game right up until the release of Wind Waker. Then
they proclaimed it. Now Nintendo is effectively breaking the
Zelda franchise into two separate lines with the adult Link
in games with more realistic graphics and the young Link remaining
in cartoon-like cel-shading.
Despite all of the criticisms, Nintendo still manages to do many things
better than any other company in the business.
While I still believe Wind Waker was strongly carried on nostalgia/Nintendo brand loyalty, and not because it was GOTY material, it is that same brand loyalty that will make me buy the new mature Zelda (and my first GameCube) when it launches this year. Despite the many things it does do wrong, Nintendo still has a knack for milking a trend (every kids show since Pokemon came out owes Nintendo royalties for mimicking its style) and keeping an audience (although I know that I am not the only one that bought an N64 but not a GCN). Their main problem is reaching a new audience and reconnecting with those disenfranchised with their image/games in their past two generations' Quest for the Holy Profitability.
Random_Hajile said:
7. Either do Revolution right or dont do Revolution at all
In the end, Nintendo is going to need to make a stand. Executives at
both Sony and Microsoft have made comments about Nintendo owning the
handheld market. Now Sony has invaded that space. Microsoft may still
follow.
Nintendo should make its stand with Revolution. To do this, Nintendo
needs to do a lot of things right from the start.
First, its time for Nintendo to discover the Internet. In Kyoto,
just like the rest of the world, people access to the Internet and for
more than a game of Phantasy Star Online. Nintendo executives
admit that not adding DVD capability to GameCube hurt them, its time to
make the same admission with the Internet. People may not use Xbox
Live, but they want the option.
Next, its time for Nintendo executives to listen to what their
customers tell them. People like pretty graphics. People want the same
games with better graphics. Nintendo executives say they want
Revolution to be as revolutionary as DS. Fine, but make sure the
graphics are hugely improved.
Not everyone agrees with this. Richard Doherty compliments Nintendo
for not trying to create a super computer in a $300 game box.
This, he says, is what will separate Nintendo from Microsoft and Sony.
But if Microsoft and Sony are successful, that separation may not be
good.
The truth is that if good old Madden NFL looks better and plays
better on PlayStation 3 and NextBox, Maddeneers are going to buy those
systems. And, for the record, Madden NFL 2004 was the best
selling game of 2003.
Finally Nintendo needs to have enough hardware at launch. Avoid
shortagesreal or trumped upand fill the channel.
Nintendo can still recapture much its former glory, even in this
competitive marketplace. If the Red Socks can break their 50-year
curse, Nintendo can break out. What Nintendo cannot do is continue to
make the same old mistakes and survive.
Basically, if Nintendo is serious about recapturing marketshare it needs to abandon its current half-assed efforts and PR spin (and I'm talking about more than just your average company PR spin). I'd like to see Nintendo games be as good as they were in past generations, as well as see the new franchise creations they're capable of with an adult in mind. Like it or not, gaming has matured, and while there is definitely a need for games that appeal to a younger audience, the far larger audience is now adults over the age of 18. Gaming is not simply arcadey platformers or action RPG-lite games. It is online, it's community, it's big-budget blockbusters with cult fan favorites. Nintendo needs to commit to filling as many of the holes in its approach as it can....especially considering it's about to enter into all out war in the handheld space. All in all, it would be a shock to see Nintendo end up 3rd party (although I'd still like to see it, as it means we would be one step closer to a 1 console world--which is where many in the industry see things headed), as they do have plenty of money to throw around, and much like Microsoft, if backed into a corner they could buy marketshare with that money. The next generation will be fun to watch, to say the least.