Division is doing much more stuff than TLoU, good screen space reflection, volumetric lighting, all lights casting shadows, lit particles, very high quality shaders.The Division, while mind blowing to look at, really wont be that hard to achieve graphically IMO.
After watching the video multiple times, it isn't really doing anything super taxing. It just has a nice lighting engine, bokeh DoF, fairly high resolution textures, and some nice effects like smoke and cloth physics. It all comes together very nicely though.
The main reason being the attention to detail. Reminds me of the last of us really. How there is clutter everywhere, and all of the assets are seemingly unique. The world does not feel copy and pasted.
I think if The Last of Us was a native PS4 game, it would blow away the division. The attention to detail and design of the world is like nothing I have ever seen. It it only held back by the hardware in that all of the varied textures and assets that ND created for The Last of Us had to run on PS3. So you get thousands of unique objects, posters, materials, etc, but they are all fairly low resolution.
Imagine TLoU rereleased on PS4 with the original HD textures (assuming ND made them that way), 1080p, 60 fps, with some Bokeh and cloth physics. It would compete very well with Division visually (although The Division is open world) and that would just be a touched up PS3 game.
A theoretical ground up PS4 TLoU would blow everything we have seen out of the water.
TLoU would have to upgrade almost everything to compete in even field [textures, geometry, LoD, lighting, tessellation, shadowing, post effects, particles which are bad in TLoU] and add resolution to this, thats not cheap stuff. Geometry in TLoU is very poor most of the time.
You can even see how much most of this stuff cost if You compare Crysis 3 from consoles to different settings on PC.