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The Doomsday Cult of Bitcoin
- Thread starter Black Mamba
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Hamster Plugin
Member
The reason there are investors in it is because there are idiots who believe that it will be a big currency and the initial investors were banking on that thought. Without the idiots, people wouldn't be investing in emptiness.
Luckily, it's not exactly a huge risk to invest in something reliant on idiots, as they aren't exactly few and far between. Especially when bitcoins become easier to buy.
Kabuki Quantum Lover
Member
Sadly no.
It's not.
Here is some of them discussing their losses.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=476535.msg5255853
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Bitcoin Guy likes Bitcoin because he likes the idea of making a lot of money without doing anything.
There are other, safer ways to buy and sell bitcoins.
Mt. Gox, while being the largest exchange at the time, was not one of them.
I doubt many people really believe it will be a big currency. They might say so on the Internet to create buzz, but first and foremost, they see it as a quick scheme to get rich. For that, they need crazy volatility. That's why it crashes and go back up in no time. Each crash is an opportunity to make a quick buck. I bet those who lost a lot of money and are the first ones to get back in. "One last round of roulette...This time I'll win I can sense it".
CornBurrito
Member
I personally like when people, in response to the claim that bitcoin is not good as a currency, will state "I made tons of money off it." As if somehow exchanging something for a lot of fiat money makes it a good currency.
Man, that is heartbreaking. I think the worst of it is that people say they "have" x bitcoins or dollars at Mt Gox instead of saying "had". They don't even realize that its all gone.
And how exactly would he sell his bitcoins? His hashes can be tracked so people would know instantly if he's intending on selling. He's never touched his coins ever. Also who would pony up the billions to instantly buy his load of bitcoins? That would immediately crash the market.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
There's something of a feedback loop going on here. True believers buy in and end up making speculators rich while speculators dive in and validate the true believers.
How do people know his wallet addresses?
I find it interesting how loud the anti-bitcoin drumbeat has become lately, while I hardly hear anything from these supposed libertarian bitcoin zealots that are apparently cheering the currency on with more fervor than ever, if these articles are to be believed.
It all smells like price manipulation to me. I wonder if we'll ever get to a point where cryptocurrencies aren't so sorely tempting to speculate on. That could be the biggest ultimate barrier to the future of Bitcoin and co.
It all smells like price manipulation to me. I wonder if we'll ever get to a point where cryptocurrencies aren't so sorely tempting to speculate on. That could be the biggest ultimate barrier to the future of Bitcoin and co.
CornBurrito
Member
Dogecoin has anti deflationary measures. It isn't good (or at least not as good) to speculate with.
it's inherently deflationary because the money supply is capped. Once the limit is reached, economics dictates that with fixed supply, an increase in demand will cause the price, or value, to increase. That means that doge tomorrow is worth more than doge today, which encourages savings, rather than investment, the hallmark of deflation. what measures does it have?
What's more important that everyone is missing is that, despite it's faults, bitcoin provided a proof of concept for a workable solution to the byzantine generals problem. Never before has anyone figure out how to establish 'trust' in a system with anonymous participants and unreliable connections.
The way mining works, by providing 'proof of work' (in the form of finding ridiculously large numbers for no reason) and then posting that proof of work to a p2p hosted blockchain that everyone can see all the time is a completely novel concept. It has enormous consequences in the world of computing in general, not just currency. Bitcoin may fail, but it' contribution will be significant.
These articles explain the blockchain and mining in general quite well:
http://www.righto.com/2014/02/bitcoins-hard-way-using-raw-bitcoin.html
http://www.righto.com/2014/02/bitcoin-mining-hard-way-algorithms.html
Random Painted HIghway
Member
Part of me hopes that bitcoin turns out to be an evil plot to crack nuclear codes or govt encryption or backdoor corporations. Take the SETI/folding mechanics and add in a profit motive and basically outsource the heavy lifting computations to do something truly spectacular. I'd read the book, or at least watch the movie.
Not necessarily, when you have tens of thousands of coins dumping them all on an exchange is a stupid idea unless you want to ignite panic. Surely there's big investors out there like the Winklevoss that buy privately in bulk, those buys don't move the price.
a key component of proof of work (required for mining to work) is that the 'answer' to the question being solved, or in this case the number being found, is already known. With something like seti or folding@home, small packets are analysed remotely and sent back to a server however there's no way to know if you 'found' anything upon completion. The work done in mining has to either a) have no real world value or b) be verifiable mathematically, yet be a novelty in what you produce (this is exemplified by primecoin, which has miners searching for higher and higher prime chains. It's interesting mathematically, but that's it. There's no real world value to finding prime chains.)
Goddamn your commentary on current events livens up my spirits.
CornBurrito
Member
Doge coin doesn't have a hard cap iirc.
And these new/current investors are coming in thinking they will get a slice of the early bird pie when realistically they've already been gamed as the idiots. Perhaps one of the most successful schemes ever.
That's interesting, thanks. Seems kinda wasteful.
you're right, I was mistaken. 5.2B coins per year mined in perpetuity.
I'm still skeptical of a fixed money supply. i can still envision situations in which high economic growth outstrips demand, though it won't be as pronounced as a completely capped currency.
It's also interesting that the dogecoin devs can 'choose' to change the supply. While it's far more democratic and open source than an institution such as the fed, we're still dealing with some kind of centralization when it comes to money supply decisions. Imagine that some day demand does outstrip supply, would the devs try to avoid a deflationary spiral by authorizing more to be mined? I'm sure the bitcoin libertarian crowd wouldn't be happy with such a scenario...
think of all the resources that go into printing paper money. I agree it's weird to use electricity in terms of environmental sustainability, but it's no more wasteful than having real mining equipment produced and then dragging it out into the mountains and using food and water to feed people to break rocks which are then melted and washed with chemicals to produce precious metals (once used primarily as currency...)
Check out r/bitcoin and you'll find them.
Hamster Plugin
Member
Go look at the comments section of any bitcoin article anywhere including the OP's. They're everywhere.
Isn't this backwards? Isn't fervently predicting the demise of Bitcoin, calling people buying in an irrational cult built on baseless prediction and then trying to spread the word that it's a dying currency almost hypocritical?
Bitcoin has problems but it seems to be behaving more currency-like all the time. The overnight millionaire phase is over but that just means it's more of a "thing." The crazies are going away and more real entities are looking at it and saying "how do we make use of this?"
Bitcoin has problems but it seems to be behaving more currency-like all the time. The overnight millionaire phase is over but that just means it's more of a "thing." The crazies are going away and more real entities are looking at it and saying "how do we make use of this?"
I still have the mindset of physical item (gold) has value, so mining to me means getting a physical thing from the mountain. It's hard for me to adjust.
I think the wastefulness also stems from what could be done with that computing power (ALZ research for example) but I suppose that finite solutions would be needed instead of continuous processing power.
Think of all that computing power used to play games. The argument isn't any different if you swap WoW or Civ 5 for bitcoin mining.
SystemShock2
Member
I was baffled as well when I found that out.
gold is a weird example today, because it does have industrial uses, but for a long time it was the perfect currency (dense, rare, inert, malleable, etc). Proof of work in cryptocurrency mining is a method of creating rarity and trust, otherwise, how could you trust that someone actually owned the bitcoins they just paid you with? If you know that it costs resources to get coins and the p2p network has verified that i own the coins I claim to, it's all good.
The brilliant design behind the blockchain is that the mining process is actually the verification of posted transactions. This prevents scamming the blockchain by doubling or 'disappearing' transactions. The verification is the important part, and the 'reward' for doing it is secondary.
yeah lol you can't even write this stuff: http://wayback.archive.org/web/20070525044536/http://mtgox.com/gwt/mtgox.php
Keeping bit coins in exchanges is like keeping your money with Bernie Madoff. It doesn't mean money is a scam, just be wary who you hand the control of your money to.
meanspartan
Member
I have no investment in bitcoin and have long been a skeptic....
But honestly, even with the awful few weeks it has had, isn't one bitcoin worth over $600 still? Perhaps we are jumping the gun a bit on the epitaph writing.
But honestly, even with the awful few weeks it has had, isn't one bitcoin worth over $600 still? Perhaps we are jumping the gun a bit on the epitaph writing.
meanspartan
Member
It would be a disaster for them if Bitcoin completely collapsed.
Proof that their libertarian dream of a government-free currency is destined for failure? I wonder how many people who lost money in Mt. Gox recently wish now that there had been some form of significant government oversight or insurance to protect them.
why is it destined to failure? bitcoin itself has a few design flaws, though none of them are inherent to the idea of cryptocurrency. I have yet to see a convincing argument that, because no government is involved, cryptocurrency will fail.
meanspartan
Member
Yes, you are correct. My apologies I meant Bitcoin in particular.
I realize there are many other currencies, some perhaps better than Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is the public face of crypto undeniably. If it collapses, confidence in cryptocurrencies will need to be rebuilt and that won't be easy.
Orbis Tabula
Member
There's a reason for this that's actually pretty interesting. I've heard it compared to how evaporation is cooling process in physics. If you have a bunch of people believing some belief, and it takes a big hit to its credibility, a bunch of people will abandon the belief. The more hits it takes, the more people will abandon it. However, the people more likely to leave are the ones who weren't that invested in the first place. The casual fans or "normal people." Those who are very passionate will not be shaken off by small disturbance. After a belief takes enough hits or doesn't have enough science backing it up, all that's left are the very, very devoted, passionate fans. So on fringe beliefs, you end up seeing a lot of "crazies." Because everyone else was more easily able to be dissuaded.
Again, this conversation as I understand is speaking more about the "fluoride in your water, chemtrails in the air" type people, not necessarily bitcoin users.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/05/bitcoin-mtgox-idUSL3N0M207R20140305?feedType=RSS
I believe Japan is already heading towards some new regulations regarding bitcoins, and is trying to get the international community involves. It's going to happen whether or not bitcoin enthusiasts want it to. I do wonder if regulation would apply upward or downward pressure on the price though.
If regulation becomes a thing, that will no doubt lend some credence to cryptocurrency in general, and may bring more people into the fold if it becomes a little more safe.
I believe Japan is already heading towards some new regulations regarding bitcoins, and is trying to get the international community involves. It's going to happen whether or not bitcoin enthusiasts want it to. I do wonder if regulation would apply upward or downward pressure on the price though.
If regulation becomes a thing, that will no doubt lend some credence to cryptocurrency in general, and may bring more people into the fold if it becomes a little more safe.
You can't write off crypto currencies because of bit coin, the same way you can't write off American dollars because people no longer use seashells or beads as currency. Bit coins are like those early proto currencies, and I have no qualms in writing its epitaph.
meanspartan
Member
Like I said above though, it is going to be a tough going for at least a while if Bitcoin goes down. The general public barely understands cryptocurrency as it is, if the biggest and most famous coin collapses, I dunno dude. That is a big PR blow.
j_k_redtail
Member
Believe it or not, Satoshi Nakamoto has been revealed as none other than..... a Japanese American guy named Satoshi Nakamoto, living in California. It's in today's copy of Newsweek.
To be fair, the mtgox.com domain was never actually used to trade MtG cards. The original owner sold it to someone who wanted to run a BTC exchange. And the rest is history..
j_k_redtail
Member
removed, dp
Haha, this is pretty much the inverse of that dude who thought 42coin was amazing because the supply is so limited, it's absolutely guaranteed to be super valuable.
CornBurrito
Member
oh nooooooooooooooooo.
jediyoshi
Member
Ah money.
If you believe all the Bitcoin believers, the Satoshi Nakamoto that Newsweek outed isn't really the real guy. Oh, and if he is then fuck Newsweek because they put his life in danger or something. They're all foaming at the mouth, half insisting he's fake, half outraged about the invasion of privacy, and half absolutely sure that robbers/the NSA/NWO/lizard people are coming to kill him and take his coins. (Yeah, that's 150 percent.)
Strange that the first thing they think of when news about Satoshi comes out is 'his life is in danger'! If the community wasn't filled with so many shady, anonymous people doing shady things, perhaps people wouldn't jump to the same kinds of conclusions we come to when we talk about drug kingpins and mafia bosses?
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