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Werewolf |OT| Was it all just a Dream?

Timeaisis

Member
I feel as though not many people think Fireblend and flux are suspicious for agreeing, before I claimed, that someone was saved night 1.

I might need to re-examine my thought process there. If someone other than flux could comment that would be super.

Can you run through your argument again?

This is what I got:
1. You saved Ultron N1 but obviously didn't tell anyone.
2. You brought up that someone might have been saved N1 on D2
3. Flux and Fireblend agree
4. That's suspect because...?

I kind of see where you are going but I might be missing the logical connection that you have. If you go over it again maybe more people will get on board.
 
So you agree flux and Fireblend were suspicious to assume a 2 death night involved a save of some kind?
I do, but I don't consider it a scumtell, per se. With a 3-death night immediately following a 2-death night, it is plausible. I just think the save would have had to be an extremely lucky guess to happen on Night 1.
 

Fireblend

Banned
I'm not sure what's the story you're pushing here, bats. You're suspicious of me for thinking Cabot might've gotten lucky on N1 and saved a targeted player, when in reality what happened is you were the one to save a targeted player?

Without knowing you had a save ability, it seemed like the likeliest scenario was that someone got saved by the doctor. It explained everything we knew at the time and I agreed. Occam's Razor, anyone? It's at least as likely as someone a vig/sk striking a wolf in that same night :p

Regardless of that, to what end do you suppose scum would be interested in pushing either of those scenarios? Misinformation for misinformation's sake? I don't really see what's the utility there for either faction, maybe illuminate me regarding that?
 

batsnacks

Member
Can you run through your argument again?

This is what I got:
1. You saved Ultron N1 but obviously didn't tell anyone.
2. You brought up that someone might have been saved N1 on D2
3. Flux and Fireblend agree
4. That's suspect because...?

I kind of see where you are going but I might be missing the logical connection that you have. If you go over it again maybe more people will get on board.

For the sake of being really specific, I'll just focus on flux for now since that's who I'm voting though Fireblend did a really similar thing.

1. Saved ultron n1, didn't tell anyone.
2. On D3 I quoted cabot out of context and made it look like cabot was saying he saved a sleepwalker on the first night.
3. burbeting brings up that someone might have been saved N1.
4. Flux agrees.

That's suspicious because flux, who has been suspicious/critical of me, is suddenly buying into something I said. Most people were just assuming that there were extra kills on N2. Flux's theory is exactly what the wolves would think happened if they tried to kill ultron:
This sounds plausible.

N1: Drop (town) and Terrabyte20xx (wolf) died. One almost certainly by the wolves, the other by an SK/Vig.

N2: CornBurrito, *Splinter and Cabot died; all town. If the wolves have a double kill ability, that accounts for the two deaths and the extra one by an SK/Vig.

And three people didn't die on N1 because Cabot would have protected someone other than the Sheriff.
Others were saying there must have been extra kills on the second night. Flux is saying there were 3 kills every night and that cabot saved someone on the first night. So flux is right and everyone else is wrong.

Also, it's important that I quoted cabot out of context at the beginning of the day. Cabot never implies that he would have saved a sleepwalker, he says he didn't. I just made it look like that's what cabot was saying, and flux had this to say:
Because he wasn't predicting the Sheriff to get got on N1, probably.

Seeing how he [cabot] specifically calls out sleepwalkers, maybe he even saved your life, Mr. Sleepwalker #2.

To me, it looks like flux knew a sleepwalker was saved before he should have.
 

batsnacks

Member
edit: Like yes there are "if"s in that theory but I think it makes sense for the most part. I'm open to better leads if they're out there. Everyone knows what I know now maybe someone can do better than this.
 

Fireblend

Banned
Wait, this doesn't add up.

If bats killed cabot yesterday, that leaves 2 NKs from a combination of scum or our vig/SK.

But N1 we had two kills, one from scum, one from vig on TB and one other kill on Ultron that was saved by bats.

Where did that other kill go tonight? Unless there's another witch that used their one-shot on N1.

Also, I'm sorry if I missed anything, I was busy when this went down. Was this inconsistence Time pointed out ever addressed/explained?
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
batsnacks, let me ask you this one more time: Why is Burbeting not suspicious to you?

If your claim is that I shouldn't ever be able to agree with you because I'm suspicious of you, that's a really strong argument you've got there.
 

Timeaisis

Member
For the sake of being really specific, I'll just focus on flux for now since that's who I'm voting though Fireblend did a really similar thing.

1. Saved ultron n1, didn't tell anyone.
2. On D3 I quoted cabot out of context and made it look like cabot was saying he saved a sleepwalker on the first night.
3. burbeting brings up that someone might have been saved N1.
4. Flux agrees.

That's suspicious because flux, who has been suspicious/critical of me, is suddenly buying into something I said. Most people were just assuming that there were extra kills on N2. Flux's theory is exactly what the wolves would think happened if they tried to kill ultron:

Others were saying there must have been extra kills on the second night. Flux is saying there were 3 kills every night and that cabot saved someone on the first night. So flux is right and everyone else is wrong.

Also, it's important that I quoted cabot out of context at the beginning of the day. Cabot never implies that he would have saved a sleepwalker, he says he didn't. I just made it look like that's what cabot was saying, and flux had this to say:


To me, it looks like flux knew a sleepwalker was saved before he should have.

Ok, I see where you are going with this.

So I guess cabot saved no one. This implies we had two doctor-roles N1 and not a one protected our Sheriff. Lol.

Anyway, back to your point. Is it that unreasonable to believe someone was saved on N1? After we saw we got three deaths last night, I don't think it's that strange to assume they've got two mafia NKs. In hindsight, obviously this isn't what happened, as you killed cabot last night.

So N1 we've got a kill from you, a kill from our vig, and a kill from mafia.
N2 we got one kill from mafia, one kill from our vig, and one kill from ??? protected by you.

Seeing what happened last night I don't think it's that unreasonable to think there would've been 3 kills on N1 in which one were protected. Obviously, we know that now. But even before your reveal.
 

Burbeting

Banned
So I guess cabot saved no one. This implies we had two doctor-roles N1 and not a one protected our Sheriff. Lol.

Again, there is a good chance that Cabot was either struck with some roleblock/switch, or his protection was bypassed by a strongman. His behaviour in D2 suggests so, more or less, I think he protected Drop in D1, but failed at it.
 

batsnacks

Member
Ok, I see where you are going with this.

So I guess cabot saved no one. This implies we had two doctor-roles N1 and not a one protected our Sheriff. Lol.

Anyway, back to your point. Is it that unreasonable to believe someone was saved on N1? After we saw we got three deaths last night, I don't think it's that strange to assume they've got two mafia NKs. In hindsight, obviously this isn't what happened, as you killed cabot last night.

So N1 we've got a kill from you, a kill from our vig, and a kill from mafia.
N2 we got one kill from mafia, one kill from our vig, and one kill from ??? protected by you.

Seeing what happened last night I don't think it's that unreasonable to think there would've been 3 kills on N1 in which one were protected. Obviously, we know that now. But even before your reveal.

N1 we have (speculation) 2 kills from wolves, 1 kill from our vig, 1 save by me.
N2 we have 2 kills from (?), 1 kill from me

So from village's perspective (before I claimed), we went from 1 villager dying per night to 3 villagers dying per night.
 

Timeaisis

Member
Not trying to throw both of us under the bus here, batty, but check it.

I think the "there must be 2 killing roles" people should consider that in a 29 player game, wolves probably get at least 2 kills every night. This game could take months otherwise.

He's implying we could indeed have a doctor that successfully protected someone else. The wolf death is likely a town vig.

We both had that suspicion right after Drop died.
 

batsnacks

Member
batsnacks, let me ask you this one more time: Why is Burbeting not suspicious to you?

If your claim is that I shouldn't ever be able to agree with you because I'm suspicious of you, that's a really strong argument you've got there.

You're not going to convince me of anything by making broad sweeping generalizations about what I'm saying or by using sarcasm. It makes me think you're not taking me seriously and if you're not taking me seriously it's a waste of my time because I believe what I'm saying and am putting forward effort to communicate it as clearly as I can.
 
What if two people targeted Drop on Night 1? The first would have gotten blocked, but the second would've gone through, right? And then that would reconcile why there were only two kills as well.

I can see that happening, since Drop was a high profile target. The only thing is that I doubt both attempts would be coming from the wolf side, and I doubt they would also kill their own, so that could imply two or more neutral killing roles.
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
You're not going to convince me of anything by making broad sweeping generalizations about what I'm saying or by using sarcasm. It makes me think you're not taking me seriously and if you're not taking me seriously it's a waste of my time because I believe what I'm saying and am putting forward effort to communicate it as clearly as I can.

You're really good at dodging questions.

You're right; I'm NOT taking what you're saying seriously, in part because of your nifty evasiveness.
 

ultron87

Member
What if two people targeted Drop on Night 1? The first would have gotten blocked, but the second would've gone through, right? And then that would reconcile why there were only two kills as well.

I can see that happening, since Drop was a high profile target. The only thing is that I doubt both attempts would be coming from the wolf side, and I doubt they would also kill their own, so that could imply two or more neutral killing roles.

Cabot's role says "You will prevent them from dying for one Night." and not that it'll prevent a single attempt on his or her life. So I don't think a double kill would bypass it?
 

Timeaisis

Member
N1 we have (speculation) 2 kills from wolves, 1 kill from our vig, 1 save by me.
N2 we have 2 kills from (?), 1 kill from me

So from village's perspective (before I claimed), we went from 1 villager dying per night to 3 villagers dying per night.

Alright, now I'm confused. For clarity, here's the consensus as to what happened pre-batsnacks roleclaim.

N1: Drop is killed by wolves, TB is killed by our vig (or an SK)
Result: speculation as to why our doc didn't protect Drop. Speculation as to whether we have a Doc, based on the number of town deaths (1): "why would a doc protect someone that isn't Drop?", for example.

N2: CB, Splinter, cabot (our doc) all die. All town.
1 by wolves, another by wolves and/or SK, last by vig
Result: Speculation whether the non-vig kill from last night was another regular wolf kill that was blocked N1 or a another role altogether (like SK or maybe a one-shot wolf kill)

Notice that in this situation we went from 1 town death to 3 still. Also, accounting for the assumed vigilante in this scenario, we still go from 1 town death per night by wolves/netural SK to 2 town deaths per night by wolves/neutral SK. So a kill was added regardless.

Now, after your revelation:
N1: Drop killed by wolves, TB killed by vig, ultron protected by bats
N2: Cabot killed by you, CB and Splinter killed by wolves (or maybe an Vig/SK)

So what's inconsistent here?
Well, you admit you didn't kill Terrabyte N1, so someone did and their not wolf aligned (clearly). That means it's either an SK or Vig. N2 comes around, you kill cabot, wolves get their kill (either CB or Splinter), and then there's another death which could either by another wolf kill or a vig or a SK.

This is a mess. For the sake of argument, here's some possibles. Note that lots of kills are interchangeable here. i.e. Ultron could've been killed by wolves, and Drop could've been killed by ??? instead. Mostly, I'm trying to separate the kills known to come from a town vig from the ones that were definitely from wolves (or neutrals).

N1 Possibilities
P1
Drop - killed by wolves, Ultron - targeted by wolves (protected by bats), TB killed by Vig
Comments: Requires two wolf kills
P2 Drop - killed by wolves, Ultron - targeted by ???, TB killed by Vig
Comments: Ultron attacked by mysterious stranger!
P3 Drop killed by wolves, TB killed by Vig, Bats is lying about Ultron
Comments: You never know

N2 Possibilities
P1 Cabot - killed by batsnacks, Splinter killed by wolves, CB killed by vig
Comments: OK, this makes sense...NO IT DOESN'T. Where'd the other kill from N1 go? Where's the other wolf kill in all this. Or the mysterious stranger (???).
P2 Batty's lying, Cabot - killed by wolves, splinter killed by wolvse, CB killed by Vig
Comments: this is a little more consistent with N1.
P2 Batty's lying, Cabot - killed by wolves, splinter killed by ???, CB killed by Vig
Comments: this is a little more consistent with N1.

What I don't understand, is if batsnacks is telling the truth, we have an unaccounted for kill on N1. Who went for Ultron? Was it another one-shot? Was it wolves? If it was wolves, why didn't they use their extra kill last night?
 
One other thing that I don't think has been mentioned: Of all the night 1 kills if one was by a vigilante, I'd expect it to be Ultron. We've been assuming that Terra was a vig kill, seeing as how he was scum, but a vig wouldn't have known that. Ultron was very close to being lynched day 1 after all, so I'd have thought that he would be the most likely candidate for a vig.

That would leave Terra to most likely be the target of a serial killer or other one shot.
 

Burbeting

Banned
What if Cabot was targeted by multiple killing parties during N2? As I said earlier, it's possible Scum were able to figure out he was a Doctor based on his D2 behaviour. That would mean that there were 4 parties aiming for a kill last night, which would fit with N1 and three deaths.
 

Burbeting

Banned
Where are the next people?:
StarSketch
GreatLord Tiger (!!!)
MattyG
Trigger

None of you have made any real contributions so far. I would have QB in this list too, but he at least came here, and told his reasoning.
 

batsnacks

Member
I did not know there were two targets, just as Flux didn't know. We were both speculating. That is my very point here.
Maybe but it sort of looks like you had more information than everyone else. Most people that commented thought my suggestion of 2 night kills was weird, since they didn't know 2 townies got targeted on the first night. That's why I tried to pass it off as a mistake in reading the day post.
We've got 29 people. I bet dollars to donuts they wolves have got two KP.

Anyway I'm open to better leads if they're there.
 

batsnacks

Member
Oh maybe this is where the missing night kill went, assuming the wolves do get 2 kills:

This is the serial killer role in the previous game:
"Needs to kill 3 girls to win and leave the game. No result when targeting men."

Maybe the serial killer hit a BOY last night.
 

Timeaisis

Member
"Bet" implies I don't know, bats. :p

It might just be a bunch of neutral killers or something, who knows. Someone else out there is killing people.
 

batsnacks

Member
"Bet" implies I don't know, bats. :p

It might just be a bunch of neutral killers or something, who knows. Someone else out there is killing people.

Yeah but you bet DOLLARS TO DONUTS and I bet you like dollars more than donuts. I'm going to vote you at least until I know who you want to vote today.
 

Timeaisis

Member
Hahaha that is true. I do really like donuts, though.

And I voted GLT today because he still reeks from that last post he made ages ago.
 
So I forgot to check the thread and the thread forgot me too

...Holy shit, 3 dead.

N2 Possibilities
P1 Cabot - killed by batsnacks, Splinter killed by wolves, CB killed by vig
Comments: OK, this makes sense...NO IT DOESN'T. Where'd the other kill from N1 go? Where's the other wolf kill in all this. Or the mysterious stranger (???).

Maybe the extra wolf kill was one-shot only? Why use it the first day though?
 

Timeaisis

Member
So I forgot to check the thread and the thread forgot me too

...Holy shit, 3 dead.



Maybe the extra wolf kill was one-shot only? Why use it the first day though?

That's what I thought, too, but like you said, popping it off Day one makes little to no sense. Maybe that's the point, though.
 

Burbeting

Banned
My guess about what happened N1/N2, to have a plus to Timeaisis ideas.

N1: Drop - Killed by wolves, Cabot was guarding, but was either switched, blocked or wolves have a strongman. Ultron - Targeted by wolves most likely, or another KR Batsnacks protected. Terrabyte - Killed by a vig/SK/Some other killing role.

Reasoning: I think Cabot's acting suggests, that he was trying to protect Drop. Terra was definitely not killed by wolves (unless switching happened, but Palmer dislikes switchers?). We don't know for sure what tried to kill Ultron, but there is a good chance that Scum have some sort of second killing ability. But also very possible, that he was killed by something else, as why would Scum want to kill of a role, that was almost lynched D1, and was most likely going to be looked with more suspicion during D2?



N2: Cabot - Was Targeted by Wolves AND Batsnacks. Splinter - Was targeted by Wolves? CornBurrito - Was Targeted by a SK/Vig/Some Other

With two killing roles attacking Cabot, it keeps the three killers from N1 active in N2 as well, plus to batsnacks. Cabot was deputised, and he had hinted at a possible PR, so there's a good chance he got attacked by multiple killers. CornBurrito has had some people thinking he is suspicious, so I think that whoever aimed at Terra, might have killed Corn. For Splinter, it's possible that the attacker of Ultron might have Splinter?

----

Question Time:
Why was Ultron attacked N1, when he was almost lynched D1? Would Scum want to delete a player that was under suspicion?

If the Scum have a Strongman (this is what I think is going on here, but it's just my assumption right now), is that role now useless to them, with Cabot dead.

----

NOTE:
I trust Batsnacks role claim. Not so sure about Zipped.
I don't think there is a gender-themed SK this time. Cabot's PR does not hint at neither genders, and I doubt Palmer would re-use the same idea immeaditely again.
 

batsnacks

Member
Yeah, but there were roles that were specifically Gendered, like Princess.

Most of them didn't though. I think an SK that kills people with a mostly-hidden attribute is a really cool unique role, arguably the coolest one in the previous game. I'd use it again.
 

Burbeting

Banned
Time to look at the suspicious people (imo) of right now!

GreatLord Tiger: My points still stand. He has not posted anything today, and only one post for over a week, which is really disappointing. Where are you?

Flux/Fireblend: Both took the bait I left them about Cabot protecting someone else (other than Drop), a narrative that Scum would have wanted to use, to maybe hide the possibility of a strongman. Also interesting, that Flux seemed to ignore that part of my post where I defined my bait as such, and instead asked Batsnacks, why I’m not as suspicious as he is about it.
Other than that though, both of them have acted like themselves. Fireblend has continued being contributive (somewhat), but very very bland and blending players, which was something he definitely was in NX, where he was scum. Flux keeps being aggressive, and turns somewhat really defensive, whenever accused, or so I at least feel.

Swamped/Zipper: I choose both of them specifically for this reason: They were both part of the very late Style bandwagon, yet when Day 3 comes, and I call them out from it, they both immediately jump to voting GreatLord Tiger. Why, if you both thought he was more likely town than Style? Swamped then changed her vote, and deemed that there was enough pressure on GLT.

Zipper continued: So then, Zippedpinhead claims Amnesiac Watcher. In a way, this role definitely makes sense, with the sleepwalkers running around and all. However, this claim is also a really, really convenient Scumclaim. A role, that cannot be verified at all, basically, and also a role that does not help town at all after claiming (and not much even after it). Something about this claim seriously bugs me.
Watchers wise, I’m beginning to suspect, that Palmer is seriously trolling with our expectations by adding bunch of sleepwalkers, by not having any watchers at all. Last game had no watchers, just a voyeur, but that has a completely different function than a watcher.

Xamtheking: Not inherently suspicious, but he has seriously not worked for Town’s benefit so far in this game, sorry dude.
 

Burbeting

Banned
I also want to return to this post by Tim.

I do not buy into the notion that GLT needed to be saved by his scum team, looking at the votes side-by-side:

x9oVWSx.png


GLT wasn't in any major danger and the number of votes on Style was overkill in comparison. I just think Style was an easier target to put a vote on.

Also I buy GLT's claim. I think scum would put more of a show into claiming to really sell it, not just casually mention it in a wall of text.

He has been dead weight though, but so have a lot of people.

I disagree here. If you look at how votes were going until last 30 minutes, it was:

Style (4)
CrimsonFist
xamtheking
Fireblend
Splinter

GreatLord Tiger (4)
Burbeting
Rats
MattyG
Ultron

It was not decided at all at the 15 minute point. Also, remember that the votes to Style from Trigger, Batsnacks, Swamped and Zipper then came at almost the same minute, at a point where there was not much time until the end of day. Makai was the only one who voted so much later, that he most likely was able to see the other new votes.

I'm not suggesting that this heap of players is full of scum (I think Bats is town, as I believe is claim), but it's a good possibility that at least some of the scum panicked, and voted at the last 15 minutes, and did not dare to take their vote away then, after seeing that others had already joined. I think Trigger as a new subber and Makai for already seeing that his vote was not going to matter, can be excused, and Bats is town to me. So this leaves Swamped and Zipped, for me.
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
Burbeting, you say that you trust batsnacks' role claim (and I guess I do, outside of a few issues I have with it). But do you also trust his alignment?
 

Burbeting

Banned
Burbeting, you say that you trust batsnacks' role claim (and I guess I do, outside of a few issues I have with it). But do you also trust his alignment?

That is a good question, honestly. The role was town in Woof One, but there is no reason, why Palmer wouldn't shift it to Werewolf's side, like the doublevotes were kinda sorta moved from scum to town, with Sherrif.

I have to think about it, it's a good point.
 
I can't see a scum aligned witch being in the game, it strikes me as too overpowered a role. The main drawback of the role as I see it is that they don't know the alignment of the person they're bringing back. Naturally a scum aligned one would not have that drawback.

Also, I do want to give Xamtheking credit for his contributions today, I feel like he has made some decent points, and has actually been contributive, unlike certain other people.
 

batsnacks

Member
Burbeting, you say that you trust batsnacks' role claim (and I guess I do, outside of a few issues I have with it). But do you also trust his alignment?

If I were a wolf and I had the resurrect ability, I would have used it on terrabyte and never said a word.
 

Burbeting

Banned
I can't see a scum aligned witch being in the game, it strikes me as too overpowered a role. The main drawback of the role as I see it is that they don't know the alignment of the person they're bringing back. Naturally a scum aligned one would not have that drawback.

Also, I do want to give Xamtheking credit for his contributions today, I feel like he has made some decent points, and has actually been contributive, unlike certain other people.

Maybe it could be modified role, like "You must use the powers during N1 and N2", which would partly explain why Batsnacks used them immediately. However, then he would have resurrected Terra N1, which makes this possibility moot... unless Ultron is a scum too.
 

batsnacks

Member
Maybe it could be modified role, like "You must use the powers during N1 and N2", which would partly explain why Batsnacks used them immediately. However, then he would have resurrected Terra N1, which makes this possibility moot... unless Ultron is a scum too.

I don't think it's reasonable to assume town shot twice night one and hit wolves with both bullets. It can happen but I think my claim as is makes a lot more sense than that.
 
Maybe it could be modified role, like "You must use the powers during N1 and N2", which would partly explain why Batsnacks used them immediately. However, then he would have resurrected Terra N1, which makes this possibility moot... unless Ultron is a scum too.

If it was a scum aligned role, then Ultron would have to be scum.
 

Burbeting

Banned
Yeah, I'm just thinking of the possibilities right now, you have to think about all different theories at this point of the game.

However, I am pretty sure, that Bats' aligment is Town. It would fit my theory that both him and the wolves attacked Cabot N2. Why would Wolves hit twice there?
 

Timeaisis

Member
Problem is, we have no way of vetting bat's roleclaim. No one knows if ultron was actually targeted except the person doing the targeting.

Bat's could just as easily be lying. My megapost above shows that either way, everything is consistent because we don't know about the other killer role.

Not that I'm saying he's lying, but food for thought. His claim doesn't really fill any gaps in the story, as far as I can tell.
 

Burbeting

Banned
Well it does fill the gap, that he must be one of the many killers of N2. Because if Bats is lying, it most likely means he is either Scum or a neutral SK, because why else claim a KP?

And yeah, Bats' claim has the same problem as Zipped's, neither of them can be really proved. On Zipped's case though, his claim is so convenient for a scum to make, while in Bats case, he is more vulnerable to being caught, I think.
 
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