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Werewolf |OT| Was it all just a Dream?
- Thread starter Palmer_v1
- Start date
GLT s last post. On mobile.
Xamtheking
Member
Oh yeah
Damm replacements
We have a lynch target. DR and NX mafia talked too much In the same situation. It hurts town 100% of the time.
QB didn't insinuate that the bomb he has is a lynch bong though...but just in case it is, i wouldn't support Hyper as the hammer. It would kill Town to lose another active participant.
We could ask Time to hammer?
Or Rats?
Sure, I was just saying that because he's claimed ordinary. Doubt it is a lynchbomb, just a precaution.
Xamtheking
Member
I volunteer to hammer if need be
I serve no valuable purpose as a Sleepwalker
I serve no valuable purpose as a Sleepwalker
Hyperactivity
Banned
No, it hurts town to turbo and end discussion before anything can be said. People count on the timer so as to be given the ability to write out posts, suspicions, etc. Turboing is almost always a stupid move
Oh yeah, duh. He even offered himself for lynching before (he seems to make a habit of this lol)
You are wrong. That is ridiculous.
NOTE: QuantumBro just claimed and Swamped gave his name. I have added notes to that claim to the end of this post. I know this theory is now much, much more implausible after these claims, but I still want it out of my system, just to make sure that its heard.
---
A hypothetical theory, that came to my mind while looking at the today.
What if Rats and Flux are both Scum?
ACT I
During D1, Flux did not have a strong reaction on the sudden turbos going on, even though there was multiple:
In D2, there was no reaction once again.
However, in D3, when there was just few votes in Rats Off To Ya!, this was reaction of Flux.
Even though at the time, Rats did not have that many votes at all, at least not enough to really rival Zipped as the vote leader. Also, he did not think the voting of QuantumBro was weird, even though that happened just a short time earlier. So why the sudden change? The above quote was not direct shout that people shouldnt vote for Rats, but he clearly was implying that. After this, Flux does not post much at all, other than to sneer at Zipped later.
So then, D4 begins. What is Fluxs first post?
Isnt this odd? Such a big 180 degree turn, and it was his first post during D4, too. Flux seems to be 1000% sure that Rats is scum.
The part with brackets is my addon.
Flux later writes a post with his reasoning for the very sudden 180:
This post is dandy and all, but where was it when he voted Rats in the first place? He posted this much later, when I had already claimed.
---
ACT BREAK:
Now then, here is where my theory comes in:
- Rats off to ya! is a Scum, who has a one-shot-BP. This works as a counter against the multiple killing roles the town and the neutral sk seemingly has. The Scum team might have had a tactic to make him claim one-shot-bp, who is siding with town, but this plan completely broke down, when Zipped flip yesterday on having town-sided 1-shot-BP already. So the scums couldnt simply back down to this idea.
- During the third night, something hit Rats off to ya, something that gave him the information from Palmer, that he had lost his BP, due to being hit. Was he targeted by a vigilante, or a Serial Killer? The scum team did not know for sure. But they did know, that if Vigilante would claim during D4, and tell they targeted Rats during N3, but did not succeed, Rats would look really bad.
- So then, what would the other scum do in this situation?
---
ACT II
Now with my theory in place, lets look at the opening post of Flux during D4 again:
If Flux is a scum, he would know Rats lost his 1-shot-BP. He would also know, together with other scum, that if he was targeted by Vigilante, there would be a good chance that Rats would be lynched. Solution? Bussing him as hard as possible at least by one Scum, in this case, FluxWave. He makes 180 on Rats, votes him, and then starts to write a post that would give him justification, and posts it a lot later.
So then, this story continues, after Swamped claims. This is Rats reaction:
Rats seems somehow sure, that Swamped shot him? Why? Especially after Swamped said in her claim: I also wanted to use my power to eliminate players who were kind of confusing but not really getting votes to lynch. Rats does not fit in this category at all. He was gaining suspicion in earlier days, and it seemed pretty clear that he might be lynched in the future. Yet somehow Rats feels so sure, that he was shot.
Well, maybe he knew. Maybe he knew he had lost his one-shot BP, and was sure it was because Swamped had shot him? This is the most coherent explanation I can think at the moment.
Flux later then implies, that hey, maybe Swamped targeted Rats:
---
ACT BREAK
So what do we get from here?
1. Rats is targeted during the night. He loses the one-shot BP, informs other wolves in their chat.
2. Flux begins to instantly bus Rats when D4 begins. He seems so so so sure Rats is scum, but only writes his reasoning later.
3. When Swamped claims, Rats implies that he thinks he might have been shot, even though it clashes with what Swamped said. He has already given up, and trusts that when he dies, his scum members get some good-guy points in the eyes of others. For example, Flux.
4. Flux implies that Swamped might have targeted Rats, again, clashing with what Swamped said.
---
ACT III
(aka QB claims and Swamped tells us the name)
So then, QB makes his claim. He attacked Rats, but if he attacks someone, he will revive them instead. Sounds fishy, but it makes sense, after Swamped comes in, and tells that she indeed did target Rats. I have to admit, I thought she was not targeting Rats due to what she said earlier, but okay.
Now then, this creates a big blow to my theory. Does Rats lose his one-shot BP, if he is revived by another role? At this point Ill say no, but QBs claim says, that he does CPR. Its bit iffy, but its possible that Rats would lose the one-shot BP from Swamped shot, even if QB was doing CPR on him.
However, this point makes this theory much more likely incorrect. But its still here, as a theory. If we find out, that there is something weird in QBs claim after he possibly flips today (at the moment it seems), like if he actually lied about the CPR, it might make this theory valid again.
---
A hypothetical theory, that came to my mind while looking at the today.
What if Rats and Flux are both Scum?
ACT I
During D1, Flux did not have a strong reaction on the sudden turbos going on, even though there was multiple:
In D2, there was no reaction once again.
However, in D3, when there was just few votes in Rats Off To Ya!, this was reaction of Flux.
Even though at the time, Rats did not have that many votes at all, at least not enough to really rival Zipped as the vote leader. Also, he did not think the voting of QuantumBro was weird, even though that happened just a short time earlier. So why the sudden change? The above quote was not direct shout that people shouldnt vote for Rats, but he clearly was implying that. After this, Flux does not post much at all, other than to sneer at Zipped later.
So then, D4 begins. What is Fluxs first post?
Isnt this odd? Such a big 180 degree turn, and it was his first post during D4, too. Flux seems to be 1000% sure that Rats is scum.
The part with brackets is my addon.
Flux later writes a post with his reasoning for the very sudden 180:
This post is dandy and all, but where was it when he voted Rats in the first place? He posted this much later, when I had already claimed.
---
ACT BREAK:
Now then, here is where my theory comes in:
- Rats off to ya! is a Scum, who has a one-shot-BP. This works as a counter against the multiple killing roles the town and the neutral sk seemingly has. The Scum team might have had a tactic to make him claim one-shot-bp, who is siding with town, but this plan completely broke down, when Zipped flip yesterday on having town-sided 1-shot-BP already. So the scums couldnt simply back down to this idea.
- During the third night, something hit Rats off to ya, something that gave him the information from Palmer, that he had lost his BP, due to being hit. Was he targeted by a vigilante, or a Serial Killer? The scum team did not know for sure. But they did know, that if Vigilante would claim during D4, and tell they targeted Rats during N3, but did not succeed, Rats would look really bad.
- So then, what would the other scum do in this situation?
---
ACT II
Now with my theory in place, lets look at the opening post of Flux during D4 again:
If Flux is a scum, he would know Rats lost his 1-shot-BP. He would also know, together with other scum, that if he was targeted by Vigilante, there would be a good chance that Rats would be lynched. Solution? Bussing him as hard as possible at least by one Scum, in this case, FluxWave. He makes 180 on Rats, votes him, and then starts to write a post that would give him justification, and posts it a lot later.
So then, this story continues, after Swamped claims. This is Rats reaction:
Rats seems somehow sure, that Swamped shot him? Why? Especially after Swamped said in her claim: I also wanted to use my power to eliminate players who were kind of confusing but not really getting votes to lynch. Rats does not fit in this category at all. He was gaining suspicion in earlier days, and it seemed pretty clear that he might be lynched in the future. Yet somehow Rats feels so sure, that he was shot.
Well, maybe he knew. Maybe he knew he had lost his one-shot BP, and was sure it was because Swamped had shot him? This is the most coherent explanation I can think at the moment.
Flux later then implies, that hey, maybe Swamped targeted Rats:
---
ACT BREAK
So what do we get from here?
1. Rats is targeted during the night. He loses the one-shot BP, informs other wolves in their chat.
2. Flux begins to instantly bus Rats when D4 begins. He seems so so so sure Rats is scum, but only writes his reasoning later.
3. When Swamped claims, Rats implies that he thinks he might have been shot, even though it clashes with what Swamped said. He has already given up, and trusts that when he dies, his scum members get some good-guy points in the eyes of others. For example, Flux.
4. Flux implies that Swamped might have targeted Rats, again, clashing with what Swamped said.
---
ACT III
(aka QB claims and Swamped tells us the name)
So then, QB makes his claim. He attacked Rats, but if he attacks someone, he will revive them instead. Sounds fishy, but it makes sense, after Swamped comes in, and tells that she indeed did target Rats. I have to admit, I thought she was not targeting Rats due to what she said earlier, but okay.
Now then, this creates a big blow to my theory. Does Rats lose his one-shot BP, if he is revived by another role? At this point Ill say no, but QBs claim says, that he does CPR. Its bit iffy, but its possible that Rats would lose the one-shot BP from Swamped shot, even if QB was doing CPR on him.
However, this point makes this theory much more likely incorrect. But its still here, as a theory. If we find out, that there is something weird in QBs claim after he possibly flips today (at the moment it seems), like if he actually lied about the CPR, it might make this theory valid again.
No, I'd rather it be someone on people's radars.
Xamtheking
Member
Vote: QuantumBro
I trust you, Burb....
Also, Flux, explain yourself
I trust you, Burb....
Also, Flux, explain yourself
Explain what?
CrimsonFist
Member
7 if the votecount thing is properly up-to-date.
Hyperactivity
Banned
Anymore enlightening information you would like to tell us all?
I'm saying this from a personal standpoint, I will sometimes use the full 4 days to plan out when I'm going through the thread, looking at things, writing out posts or reads on various people, etc. When you turbo, that ability is gone. When you turbo, you give scum the ability to not have to worry about giving more info out. The more info scum have to give, the more likely they get caught
And all you seem to be saying is nananana we found sk TURBO TURBO TURBO
Lynch at the end of the day like normal. I'mnot signing onto any turbo
A lot happening so I'll drop some of my thoughts so far:
-I think that Xam was a top lynch candidate for me going into this day. His posts seem more erratic and less about actively hunting scum. Behind him, I think that Flux's posting seems a little off. It's nothing I can place a fine point on. Just my gut feeling in reading his posts.
-I believe Swamped and Bats in their role claims. It's cleared up some things, but I'm still mulling over the implications.
-Regarding Rats, I'm not immediately sold on him being scum. Honestly, I'm more likely to believe that he's neutral than scum. His attitude towards being lynched just doesn't seem like what I'd expect from scum. I'm not against lynching him, but I'm not going to just bandwagon. I definitely think how he flips will be important in determining my reads of other people. I think a few of the people voting him are scum.
-I think that Xam was a top lynch candidate for me going into this day. His posts seem more erratic and less about actively hunting scum. Behind him, I think that Flux's posting seems a little off. It's nothing I can place a fine point on. Just my gut feeling in reading his posts.
-I believe Swamped and Bats in their role claims. It's cleared up some things, but I'm still mulling over the implications.
-Regarding Rats, I'm not immediately sold on him being scum. Honestly, I'm more likely to believe that he's neutral than scum. His attitude towards being lynched just doesn't seem like what I'd expect from scum. I'm not against lynching him, but I'm not going to just bandwagon. I definitely think how he flips will be important in determining my reads of other people. I think a few of the people voting him are scum.
Xamtheking
Member
Your 180 on rats
???
Did you miss the role claim that just happened, or do you think I'm omniscient and knew that there was a CPR among us?
Hyperactivity
Banned
I can see his stance, full days mean full days of interaction. And turbo turbo is a good window for Scums.
However, "the town can think themselves out of everything". In NX, the town had basically caught both scum, but kept overthinking themselves out, and finally let the team scum to win.
Xamtheking
Member
Not the unvote, sorry, I mean the initial 180 when you voted him first thing this Day. So pre-QB claim
Hyperactivity
Banned
Like anyone is going to rc at this point. I don't recall anyone clear as day claiming they were a neutral threat that killed in those situations, I seem to remember those being cases where scum was caught out on something and given time to prepare a defense
Don't try and make this situation out to be the same czar
If i remember correctly, two lovers, a commuter at least. It was a field day for us Despair. I'm with you, but i do understand Hyper's sentiments.
QB is the only lynch choice right now. I don't want him accidentally killing a townie tonight.
Septimus Prime
Member
Whoa, what the hell happened?
Question before I decide whether I want to turbo: does QB have to use his ability every night? Although I guess I don't see why he wouldn't use it every night.
F it.
VOTE: QuantumBro
Question before I decide whether I want to turbo: does QB have to use his ability every night? Although I guess I don't see why he wouldn't use it every night.
F it.
VOTE: QuantumBro
Time. He did eventually react though, but nothing stood out to me, will go back to his post.
Also not quite sure what to make of Flax, Septie and Trigger.
Hyperactivity
Banned
You can overthink things when they deal with night actions. Scum can work their way out of what happened at night. But QB straight out came out with the knowledge that he was a neutral threat.
If you can't see the difference then you're blind, sorry to say.
And a neutral threat to boot, the perfect target for scum to go "Guys, look at me, I'm so decidedly town, I argued to turbo an sk who was going to get lynched anyways"
If you can't see the difference then you're blind, sorry to say.
And a neutral threat to boot, the perfect target for scum to go "Guys, look at me, I'm so decidedly town, I argued to turbo an sk who was going to get lynched anyways"
Are you serious? Dude, just read my posts today instead of seemingly skipping through everything. Helpful points:
- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=188882771&postcount=2592
- Jailer theory combined with what I thought happened on N3.
I made my stance crystal clear, yet you're still stuck on this. You continue to really push the dialog along in a useful way, Xam.
As for this turbo thing going on, right now... I'm not sure I get the urgency. What exactly do we have to gain for killing CPR man so quickly?
CrimsonFist
Member
Hyperactivity
Banned
Scum can stop worrying about playing townie a little earlier
I will, thank you very much.
I don't even care if nothing important happens in the next day, turbos are stupid
The chance that CPR man kills town accidentally is quite high. If he keeps killing town, there will be two deaths per night.
And with that, and doublevote, means that the LYLO might actually be quite close. With the death of sk, we basically buy ourselves potentially time.
Yeah, if QB really is a neutral then scum will pile on, making voting analysis a pain. But look at his potential targets for tonight! I'm not comfortable with any of them, except for Rats i guess...
Heheheh...
That's what it would seem like. What's the negative of giving ourselves more time to talk amongst ourselves, especially with this new revelation that could elucidate what actually went on in previous nights?
That's not what I'm asking. I'm for killing QuantumBro, but why do we have to turbo?
Hyperactivity
Banned
We're at 10, a vote for majority
Let's see who is stupid enough to end the day early again
Let's see who is stupid enough to end the day early again