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What do we expect of lifetime sales from PS4/Xbone/Wii U?
- Thread starter Phediuk
- Start date
Unknown One
Member
PS4: 80 million
Xbone: 40-50 million
Wii-U: 10 million
Xbone: 40-50 million
Wii-U: 10 million
Here are my predictions
WiiU:I have no clue anymore
PS4 :Most likely under 100 million(80-95 because a significant chunk of the Ps4s ltd will be lost because of japan.I expect the ps4 to sell slightly above 7 million in Japan.The ps4 will sell as well as the ps1 everyone else.
Xbox1:50-70 million. MS will pull many radical or crazy moves to get the xbox one to sell.
WiiU:I have no clue anymore
PS4 :Most likely under 100 million(80-95 because a significant chunk of the Ps4s ltd will be lost because of japan.I expect the ps4 to sell slightly above 7 million in Japan.The ps4 will sell as well as the ps1 everyone else.
Xbox1:50-70 million. MS will pull many radical or crazy moves to get the xbox one to sell.
TMaakkonen
Member
Well shit.
Well, Vita can still salvage in Japan much better than Wii U can salvage in USA, so Vita beating Wii U isnt that farfetched.
Id like to know Vita and Wii U EU numbers, but those are harder to get...
I expect PS2 era sales.
Yep, Wii U in the GC ballpark, I expect it to do quite well once it reaches mass market price.
Vita at some 20M too (yeah that tag of mine is from the time when I predicted 50M+ PSP lifetime sales and was declared mentally ill).
3DS...don't really care - a lot probably
Yep, Wii U in the GC ballpark, I expect it to do quite well once it reaches mass market price.
Vita at some 20M too (yeah that tag of mine is from the time when I predicted 50M+ PSP lifetime sales and was declared mentally ill).
3DS...don't really care - a lot probably
shinra-bansho
Member
Assuming something like a 5 year cycle, and that we stop counting around successor launches? And just based on what we see right now?
I imagine we'll see shipments somewhere in the realm of 70M to NA for the combined PS4 and XBO. I think they'll split around 55:45 to the PS4. So about 38M and 32M respectively.
I think we'll see about 15M in the UK, at a similar split.
I think something like 70M PS3s and 360s were sold outside those regions. In the current generation, despite an extra 18 months, the split was around 3:2 to the PS3. I expect that will expand to around 2:1 at least and we'll get some organic growth.
I'm bearish on Japan and think the PS4 will only manage about 5M there and the XBO will be negligible.
I think adoption this cycle will be faster, so we'll reach these numbers in the shorter timespan.
So maybe somethink like:
PS4 - 100-105M
XBO - 60-65M
The disparity basically being due to continental Europe.
The Wii U I expect to be around 12-15M.
I think the 3DS will end up less than the PSP's 77M. Probably 65-70M guestimate sounds about right.
Vita? Lol. Maybe like 8M, 9M? If it keeps selling in Japan for a bit. Discontinued everywhere else probably at less than 5M. Remaining stock firesaled and bargain binned.
I imagine we'll see shipments somewhere in the realm of 70M to NA for the combined PS4 and XBO. I think they'll split around 55:45 to the PS4. So about 38M and 32M respectively.
I think we'll see about 15M in the UK, at a similar split.
I think something like 70M PS3s and 360s were sold outside those regions. In the current generation, despite an extra 18 months, the split was around 3:2 to the PS3. I expect that will expand to around 2:1 at least and we'll get some organic growth.
I'm bearish on Japan and think the PS4 will only manage about 5M there and the XBO will be negligible.
I think adoption this cycle will be faster, so we'll reach these numbers in the shorter timespan.
So maybe somethink like:
PS4 - 100-105M
XBO - 60-65M
The disparity basically being due to continental Europe.
The Wii U I expect to be around 12-15M.
I think the 3DS will end up less than the PSP's 77M. Probably 65-70M guestimate sounds about right.
Vita? Lol. Maybe like 8M, 9M? If it keeps selling in Japan for a bit. Discontinued everywhere else probably at less than 5M. Remaining stock firesaled and bargain binned.
They're pretty much at the same level right now in Europe.
For the worldwide battle , you have to think Vita will probably outlive the WiiU, Vita won't have.a successor and will be around for all the PS4 run when Wii U probably will have one by 2016. So yeah, I'd bet Vita LTD > Will U LTD when all is done
TMaakkonen
Member
Well of course Vita will outlive Wii U.
PS1 lived 12 years.
PS2 lived 13 years.
PSP IS STILL SELLING
Playstation system dying in 5 years would be unheard of. Its the Nintendo systems that dont have long life. Even the sales successes Wii and DS stopped selling earlier than their competition.
Vita will definately still be in stores in 2020 and beyond(at least in Japan... And selling like shit
).If Sony would dare to try new handheld, theyd be best to introduce it in 2020s. No reason to kill Vita just to get another one.
It's already rumored to be at 8M and from what we are seeing in the media create threads it will sell around 1,5M this year in Japon alone and it probably hasn't reached its peak yet.. No way Vita is doing less than 15M LTD.
shinra-bansho
Member
The Vita has yet to sell-through 1.8M units in the US, it won't hit 2M at current rate for 1.5-2 years. It doesn't appear to have done much better in Europe from my last recollection. And at current rate of sales it is essentially at discontinuation levels.
Consequently, It needs to sell another ~3M units in Japan to hit 10M. Plausible, but I think this will be the system's peak year, thus making it no easy task. There's no way in hell it reaches 15M.
There's a reason Sony have lumped together PSP and PSV sales in their earnings releases.
IncandescentPrecept
Banned
PS4 - 100 million
Xbox One - 60 million
Wii U - 20 million
3DS - 70 million
PS Vita - 15 million
Xbox One - 60 million
Wii U - 20 million
3DS - 70 million
PS Vita - 15 million
VanCityGamer
Member
How do we know people in the U.S. won't choose XB1 over PS4 at price parity? Sure, the XB1 has had price discounts; but it hasn't received an official price cut.
Well of course Vita will outlive Wii U.
PS1 lived 12 years.
PS2 lived 13 years.
PSP IS STILL SELLING
Playstation system dying in 5 years would be unheard of. Its the Nintendo systems that dont have long life. Even the sales successes Wii and DS stopped selling earlier than their competition.
Vita will definately still be in stores in 2020 and beyond(at least in Japan... And selling like shit
If Sony would dare to try new handheld, theyd be best to introduce it in 2020s. No reason to kill Vita just to get another one.
I think they mean 5 years of this generation of consoles, not how long it will
be on the market. PS4 will probably be sold a decade from now, but PS5 will
likely to have already been released before that. As for LTD sales for this gen:
PS4: 90-115 million (worldwide support)
XBO: 50 (on the back of US and UK, but minimal world wide support)
Wii U: 18-22 million (could be higher due to price cuts and increase in
first party output)
PS4: 70
Xbone: 40
WiiU: 20
Disclaimer: Overall low numbers are mainly due to the assumption that this gen will be shorter than the last one. Biggest unknown to me is how aggressive MS is going to be with promoting the Xbone, just Halo and Gears will not do it worldwide but (really) aggressive pricing might bring that number closer to 60, I'm not really convinced that is going to happen though. With WiiU I just think that sooner or later at least some people will pick it up for the existing good games to bring it to at least 20.
Xbone: 40
WiiU: 20
Disclaimer: Overall low numbers are mainly due to the assumption that this gen will be shorter than the last one. Biggest unknown to me is how aggressive MS is going to be with promoting the Xbone, just Halo and Gears will not do it worldwide but (really) aggressive pricing might bring that number closer to 60, I'm not really convinced that is going to happen though. With WiiU I just think that sooner or later at least some people will pick it up for the existing good games to bring it to at least 20.
Canis lupus
Member
Lifetime sales, so not by the end of Gen 8:
PS4: 110-120m
Bone: 50-60m
WiiU: 20-30m
It'll get bigger, even in the unlikely event the Bone won America and UK. PS3 closed the global gap even though 360 has a lead of +20 million in US+UK.
PS4: 110-120m
Bone: 50-60m
WiiU: 20-30m
It'll get bigger, even in the unlikely event the Bone won America and UK. PS3 closed the global gap even though 360 has a lead of +20 million in US+UK.
PS4: 50-60 mill.
-Good price with huge momentum
-Good general consumer reception
-Good development policies, open.
-The possibility of the best console library ever.
-Minecraft
X1: 30-40 mill.
-Halo
-US patriotism and loyalty will give them a boost, but.the rest of the world couldn't care less about it ATM
-China could cause some surprises though
-Minecraft
-Vita: dead
-WiiU: Even more dead.
-Good price with huge momentum
-Good general consumer reception
-Good development policies, open.
-The possibility of the best console library ever.
-Minecraft
X1: 30-40 mill.
-Halo
-US patriotism and loyalty will give them a boost, but.the rest of the world couldn't care less about it ATM
-China could cause some surprises though
-Minecraft
-Vita: dead
-WiiU: Even more dead.
shinra-bansho
Member
It depends upon how long it takes to reach parity. If it's soon enough then perhaps, leave it too long though and you have build up of network effect. Bandwagon effects.
Despite reaching price parity, the PS3 has never been able to consistently match or outsell the 360 in the US. And I think it's in large part because of those effects built up with a year headstart and a cheaper early price point.
People buy what their friends have. People want to play on the same closed online system as their friends. And at a population level, larger installed bases increase multiplayer game utility.
Nothing1016
Member
This is what my estimates are as well. I just think the rest of the world is to much to handle for the Xbox. In the US they will be equal but everywhere else will be Sony Land. As for the handhelds, I can see the Vita selling a couple million more in Japan but I think 15M is the highest it can possibly reach if it isn't discontinued or rejected but stores. For the 3DS I can still see Nintendo making a couple moves such as an official price cut next year since they want to milk the profit this year and by releasing the 2DS in Japan for some ridiculously low price that might spur sales.
Edit: I'm also assuming the industry has contracted back to PS2/GCN/Xbox era sales. No more then 200M consoles will be sold this gen or 100M handhelds.
Melchiah
Member
Due to not having the luck of being 1-1,5 years earlier in the market, not being the cheaper option while having better multiplatform versions, and their main competitor not royally fucking up this time, and getting their online play in order, I can't imagine how the Xbox brand could get anywhere near its last gen numbers. Especially in Europe. According to the recent sales (to retailers), the system seems to have sold only about a million worldwide this year, despite of having such a hyped exclusive release, which implies the demand is drying up.
So, my predictions for this generation...
PS4 - 100+
XB1 - 50-
Wii U - 20-
So, my predictions for this generation...
PS4 - 100+
XB1 - 50-
Wii U - 20-
RoadHazard
Gold Member
The XBO has no chance against the PS4 in any part of the world not called North America. None. The gap in Europe/Asia/etc is gonna be even larger this time. And even in the US it seems like MS will not be able to repeat what they did last gen. Sure, it's still early, but I would be shocked if it did happen to the same degree. At most I think we'll get a tie or a small lead for the XBO there. Everywhere else the PS4 will dominate. People who believe that they'll end up selling about as much globally, or even that the XBO will somehow win, are delusional. And probably American. Because if you were in Europe you'd realize what's actually going on.
AnthonypUK
Member
PS4:110m
XOone: 60m
PS4 will make some gains, XOne will lose a little of their last gen share, i expect sales to be low through till September and i expect the PS4 to still be selling strong, not as strong but WW double the Ones sales at minimum.The XOne will get get back on track, but i also have no confidence that they'll beable to produce any compelling first party games well into the XOnes lifecycle that'll enable them to overtake Sony's lead. I actually think there is a chance it could go on the opposite direction because i think Even the most ardent XBox player will get sick of an annual halo, forza and eventually a Gears.
XOone: 60m
PS4 will make some gains, XOne will lose a little of their last gen share, i expect sales to be low through till September and i expect the PS4 to still be selling strong, not as strong but WW double the Ones sales at minimum.The XOne will get get back on track, but i also have no confidence that they'll beable to produce any compelling first party games well into the XOnes lifecycle that'll enable them to overtake Sony's lead. I actually think there is a chance it could go on the opposite direction because i think Even the most ardent XBox player will get sick of an annual halo, forza and eventually a Gears.
GhostTrick
Banned
As far as I'm concerned, I see things this way:
PS4: 75m
Xbox One: 45m
Wii U: 20m
3DS: 80m
Vita: 15m
PS4: 75m
Xbox One: 45m
Wii U: 20m
3DS: 80m
Vita: 15m
Im going to stick my head out and say I will eat crow if the difference is lesser than 25% (of ps4 sales)
predictions are:
85m-100m ps4
50m-60m xbone
15m-20m wii u
ElectricKaibutsu
Member
PS4: 90 mil
XB1: 40 mil
Wii U: 20 mil
3DS: 70 mil
Vita: 17 mil
I really can't see the XB1 doing well unless MS does something crazy and drastic.
XB1: 40 mil
Wii U: 20 mil
3DS: 70 mil
Vita: 17 mil
I really can't see the XB1 doing well unless MS does something crazy and drastic.
unknownstranger
Member
PS4 - 82 million
Xbox One - 62 million
Wii U - 13 million (I'll be shocked if Nintendo doesn't release a new console by 2016)
3DS - 85 million
Vita - 22 million (I think Sony is going to ride it out and not release another handheld until around 2017).
Xbox One - 62 million
Wii U - 13 million (I'll be shocked if Nintendo doesn't release a new console by 2016)
3DS - 85 million
Vita - 22 million (I think Sony is going to ride it out and not release another handheld until around 2017).
Melchiah
Member
To my knowledge, the PS3 has sold about 10 million in Japan, so I imagine the PS4's increased EU and NA sales will more than compensate for it.
NemesisPrime
Banned
Well this thread certainly delivers...
michaelius
Banned
PS4: 80-100M
Xbone: 50-60M
WiiU : 12-18M
3DS: 70-80M
Vita: 15-20M
Xbone: 50-60M
WiiU : 12-18M
3DS: 70-80M
Vita: 15-20M
Melchiah
Member
What's your prediction then?
ps4- 100m. but i think it will be kinda frontloaded, particulary in the us. i think something will start to take the edge off consoles someyime during its life.
xbox one- 70m. a respectable also-ran that will be considered a failure in the grand scheme of things, like the psp.
3DS- 60m. Nintendo selling 18m units more is looking to be an increasingly tall order. this won't sell as well as the gba or psp, especially with its end in 2016 or 2017.
wii u- 11m. sales in europe are bad, and between the us and japan, they're about even. nintendo uas bigger games on the way, and more leverage with the wii u versus the vita, which is the only way i see it clearing the handheld's sales over time.
vita- 10m. i think it's dead in america now. but it probably won't muster another 800k unless sony does something drastic. still, between japan and the us, it could probably hit 6.5m (4m for japan). the rest is probably not too far out of reach.
xbox one- 70m. a respectable also-ran that will be considered a failure in the grand scheme of things, like the psp.
3DS- 60m. Nintendo selling 18m units more is looking to be an increasingly tall order. this won't sell as well as the gba or psp, especially with its end in 2016 or 2017.
wii u- 11m. sales in europe are bad, and between the us and japan, they're about even. nintendo uas bigger games on the way, and more leverage with the wii u versus the vita, which is the only way i see it clearing the handheld's sales over time.
vita- 10m. i think it's dead in america now. but it probably won't muster another 800k unless sony does something drastic. still, between japan and the us, it could probably hit 6.5m (4m for japan). the rest is probably not too far out of reach.
hydrophilic attack
Member
PS4: 10 million While no one can deny it has had a very impressive start, I am very concerned over the lack of worthwhile exclusives. When people realize it has no games, sales will slow down to a trickle. Add to this Sony’s fragile financial situation and it’s 78 % chance of going bankrupt in the next two years and the situation looks very bleak indeed.
The One: 200 million Before long people will realize it’s more powerful (Higher CPU/GPU clocks, clowd computing, tiled resources, DirectX 12, etc, etc) Add to this the superior living room experience (once you try it you will never want to go back) and awesome gameplay opportunities of the Kinect and you have the most powerful console ever made. Plus this E3 they are going to blow us away with exclusive games. Their war chest is much larger than Sony’s, so I fully expect exclusive GTA and Resident Evil to be unveiled at this year’s E3. Also, while Sony seems to be firing talented staff and cancelling projects left and right, Xbox has been building up their teams for a long time. The seamless blend between live-action television and video games will make Halo and Quantum Break into pop-cultural phenomena
I think that’s all Gen4 consoles?
The One: 200 million Before long people will realize it’s more powerful (Higher CPU/GPU clocks, clowd computing, tiled resources, DirectX 12, etc, etc) Add to this the superior living room experience (once you try it you will never want to go back) and awesome gameplay opportunities of the Kinect and you have the most powerful console ever made. Plus this E3 they are going to blow us away with exclusive games. Their war chest is much larger than Sony’s, so I fully expect exclusive GTA and Resident Evil to be unveiled at this year’s E3. Also, while Sony seems to be firing talented staff and cancelling projects left and right, Xbox has been building up their teams for a long time. The seamless blend between live-action television and video games will make Halo and Quantum Break into pop-cultural phenomena
I think that’s all Gen4 consoles?
Melchiah
Member
Probably because the last gen lasted for seven years, and this one will likely be 5-6. Even still, I think the PS4 sales will surpass its predecessor's.
zorlaczerohero
Banned
PS4 - 70m
XB1 - 40m
Wii U - 15m
I think the Steambox will have an impact on console sales, if Steam get good AAA support and the ports they need. I also think that the current generation will be shorter. Both machines are running off tried and tested architecture. R&D to update both machines in 4-5 years will be minimal, in fact the R&D budget will mostly be paid for by Intel, Nvidia or AMD, BC will also be very easy to implement. With the CPU manufacturing process now demoing at 14nm can Sony, MS and Nintendo really ignore it for that long?
XB1 - 40m
Wii U - 15m
I think the Steambox will have an impact on console sales, if Steam get good AAA support and the ports they need. I also think that the current generation will be shorter. Both machines are running off tried and tested architecture. R&D to update both machines in 4-5 years will be minimal, in fact the R&D budget will mostly be paid for by Intel, Nvidia or AMD, BC will also be very easy to implement. With the CPU manufacturing process now demoing at 14nm can Sony, MS and Nintendo really ignore it for that long?
GeometryHead
Neo Member
PS4: 70-80M
Xbone: 50-60M
WiiU : <15M
3DS: 70-80M
Vita: <15M
I think the current gen will be shorter, with new consoles coming 2018-2019. The consoles will sell at a reasonable pace, but when the PS5/Xbox Two comes out, the sales will slow down.
The PS4 will outsell the Xbox One, mostly because of abysmal sales in Europe. the Wii U is as good as dead, and Nintendo will either release a new console in a few short years or kill just kill off the Wii U and focus on handhelds/hybrids. Either way, the Wii U will be a disaster.
The 3DS will finish strong, although it won't get close to the DS. The Vita is, sadly, not selling, and I doubt it will turn around.
Xbone: 50-60M
WiiU : <15M
3DS: 70-80M
Vita: <15M
I think the current gen will be shorter, with new consoles coming 2018-2019. The consoles will sell at a reasonable pace, but when the PS5/Xbox Two comes out, the sales will slow down.
The PS4 will outsell the Xbox One, mostly because of abysmal sales in Europe. the Wii U is as good as dead, and Nintendo will either release a new console in a few short years or kill just kill off the Wii U and focus on handhelds/hybrids. Either way, the Wii U will be a disaster.
The 3DS will finish strong, although it won't get close to the DS. The Vita is, sadly, not selling, and I doubt it will turn around.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
Ps4 - 110M
XboxOne - 65M
3DS - 60M
WiiU - 12,5M
Vita - 15M
Ps4 could do even better if Project Morpheus becomes a huge success among casuals. I doubt it, though.
XboxOne - 65M
3DS - 60M
WiiU - 12,5M
Vita - 15M
Ps4 could do even better if Project Morpheus becomes a huge success among casuals. I doubt it, though.
SkeptiMism
Member
PS4: 65 million
Xbox One 40-50 million
Wii U: 15 million
Some might feel I'm putting PS4 at a bit low point, but it's because I feel this gen won't be near as long as the previous gen. I also feel that the sales might still be quite front loaded. That said, Sony has certainly managed to get an insanely good position with the mind share on PS4 so I think it is possible the console will keep selling really well throughout the coming years.
Xbox One will definitely catch on the US, but in the rest of the world I'm really not expecting it to do nearly as well as 360 has done.
Xbox One 40-50 million
Wii U: 15 million
Some might feel I'm putting PS4 at a bit low point, but it's because I feel this gen won't be near as long as the previous gen. I also feel that the sales might still be quite front loaded. That said, Sony has certainly managed to get an insanely good position with the mind share on PS4 so I think it is possible the console will keep selling really well throughout the coming years.
Xbox One will definitely catch on the US, but in the rest of the world I'm really not expecting it to do nearly as well as 360 has done.
iRAWRasaurus
Banned
Anyone have an idea for how long this generation will last? Last gen was around 7 years with some extra life remaining.