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[thewhitehawk]

I don't know about numbers but I think the PS4 sales will hover around 20% more over the Xbox One's and the Wii U will probably sell as many lifetime units as the Dreamcast did if not slightly more due to the larger market, so... around 10 million?

 

[airmangataosenai]

I'm gonna be bold and predict something that is a bit controversial here:

The Vita will end it's life with a higher LTD than the Wii U.

 

[Hoo-doo]

You people realize that for the Xbone to "close the gap", that would mean it has to be outselling the PS4 worldwide over and over and over again.

That's unlikely to ever happen the way things are looking now, let alone having those sales last long enough to close any kind of gap.
Meanwhile, every single month the PS4 is outselling the Xbone worldwide, the gap grows larger.

I just don't see how it's possible. Pricedropping the Xbone to parity will still see the PS4 selling substantially more if last month's unofficial pricedrops were any indication. And that was in the Xbone's strongest market with their biggest exclusive of the year.

If that doesn't even bump them above the PS4 in the states, then how in hell is it ever going to bump them above the PS4 worldwide?

 

[CrankyKong]

The SONY Playstation 4™: A muscular and veiny 100 million units sold.

xbone: a flaccid and shameful 30 million units shipped

 

[orochi91]

You people realize that for the Xbone to "close the gap", that would mean it has to be outselling the PS4 worldwide over and over and over again.

That's unlikely to ever happen the way things are looking now, let alone having those sales last long enough to close any kind of gap.
Meanwhile, every single month the PS4 is outselling the Xbone worldwide, the gap grows larger.

I just don't see how it's possible. Pricedropping the Xbone to parity will still see the PS4 selling substantially more if last month's unofficial pricedrops were any indication. And that was in the Xbone's strongest market with their biggest exclusive of the year.

If that doesn't even bump them above the PS4 in the states, then how in hell is it ever going to bump them above the PS4 worldwide?

You are correct. This gap will be significant by the end of this gen, barring
any spectacular goof on Sony's part. The Xbox long term appeal is overstated
in the US by its fans, let alone its international appeal.

 

[Coolwhip]

We already had this thread a while ago. Better to bump that.

 

[Panda In Space]

 

[quetz67]

If that doesn't even bump them above the PS4 in the states, then how in hell is it ever going to bump them above the PS4 worldwide?

Official pricedrops traditionally do much more than inofficial ones. But anyway, it won't help much IMO.

XB1 - 1 billion shipped, 400 million (ehhh 40 million) sold through.

The weight of the XB1 sitting on retail shelves in China and India will influence the continental plates movement.

 

[Kysen]

I'm going to go on record and say that WiiU will be discontinued next year. 1st party isn't enough to carry a console, at the end of the day you need licensing revenue. I'd even say that they have already made enough consoles to last them until they discontinue it.

In terms of the X1, winning is out of the question with the late start worldwide. PS3 was out a year later and still caught up which means outside US/UK it has been outselling the 360 for years. Expect the PS4/X1 gap to grow year on year despite whatever happens in the US/UK.

 

[FDC1]

I'm gonna be bold and predict something that is a bit controversial here:

The Vita will end it's life with a higher LTD than the Wii U.

It's not controversial. A lot of people are expecting it if you read the topic

 

[Gaf_SentMe]

PS4 will easily top 100 million by the end of the generation cycle. Some of you fail to realize the importance of the mass consumer price. PS3 has yet to reach the pinnacle $200 price point because of its $600 start point. With the influx of PS+ subscriptions, Sony will be able to reach that price point much sooner this gen.

PS4 -100+
XBOX ONE - 45-65
WII U - 16-

 

[KOHIPEET]

/dead

 

[blazeuk]

I have a feeling this generation is going to last longer than some people think, start doing quick cycles and watch the whole market shrink. The more enthusiastic gamer might keep pace but the majority will quickly decide to look elsewhere for a cheaper fix. Game development takes too long for short generations now too, everything points to them pushing their hardware for as long as possible so I'd expect them to be aiming for just as long this time too - we might see a year or so cut off if they don't have anything to freshen it up a bit but that's about it.

As for numbers, I think we're already seeing how it's going to go, PS4 looks like it's going to be doing the biggest numbers, but the XB1 will probably still sell respectably. Wii U is just holding out until Nintendo can push new hardware without upsetting those who have just bought one and seen very little out of it.

PS4: 85m
XB1: 65m
Wii U: 12-18m

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Numbers are not for 2020, when new console launch. These numbers are for 12+ years from now, when Gen 8 consoles will stop being manufactured and sold.

PS4: 110 million
XB1: 60 million
Wii U: 16 million

Really want to hear why people believe it's impossible for MS to trail by over 20 million units, when that seems to be exactly what the current trajectory is.

 

[bequietdrive]

PS4: 80 m
Xbone: 50 m
Wii U: 20 m
Vita: 14m
3DS: 70 M

 

[jem0208]

PS4: 100m - 110mm

X1: 80m - 90m

Wii U: 15m - 20m

Assuming the generation is of a similar length.


Wow, I seem to be predicting a lot higher than most...

 

[GameAddict411]

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

the PS4 is beating the XO in all territories, even the US. the gap will be much bigger than that.

 

[m@cross]

Only pussies go with 1 significant figure.

PS4: 93.2M
Xbone: 47.5M
Wii U: 14.1M
3DS: 79.3M
Vita: 15.8M

You're nuts if you think that PS4 and Xbox One gap won't close up by the end of the generation. It'll be less than 20M difference.

Nuts like saying March NPD would have XB1 at the top?

 

[kinggroin]

Wii U - 13 Million
PS4 - 75 Million
Xbox One - 55 Million

 

[EGM1966]

Well I reckon current trends for home consoles are going to turn out fairly indicative so I'm going with:

• PS4 90 million to 100 million
• XB1 50 to 60 million
• Wii U 15 to 20 million

3DS and Vita I have no idea

 

[dragonfart28]

These predictions all show a decline in sales from last gen.

Is this really a good sign for the industry?

 

[Caramello]

I'll attempt to use a bit of basic data to come to any conclusion.

Last generation sales numbers:

Wii 100.9M (as of December 31 2013)
PS3 80M+ (as of November 2013)
360 80M+ (as of October 17 2013)

Total console sales for the generation = 260.9M+

Breakdown by region: (I have to estimate some of these but it gives a general idea of the total units sold per region and the breakdown of that total)

United States
Wii - 48.38M
PS3 ~ 27M
360 ~ 46M
TOTAL = 121.4M

Japan
Wii - 12.75M
PS3 - 9.9M
360 - 1.6M
TOTAL = 24.3M

Other
Wii - 39.77M
PS3 ~ 43.1M
360 ~ 32.4M
TOTAL = 115.27M


Assuming a 25% contraction in total sales across the current generation due to mobile, PC gaming, major Nintendo contraction and a shorter cycle the total amount of units sold will be around 195 Million.

Of that 195 million we can give each region a total unit amount (we will keep proportions per region the same for simplicity)

The Americas - 91 Million
Japan - 18 Million
Others - 86.5 Million

Firstly we should get the Wii U out of the way. It is likely to sell better this year than last year which will get it to about 10 million. Then it will most likely have two more years of support and and will be discontinued in 2017. With a decent library and price cuts, it should get to 20 Million. I think that any increase in sales above this, say if a 'Wii Sports phenomenon' occurs, will increase the generation total and not take away sales from the other two systems. Therefore we can use this number to extrapolate numbers for the PS4 and XBO.

Wii U
The Americas - 11 Million
Japan - 5 Million
Others - 4 Million

Taking this into account;

The Americas - 80 Million

Here it's clear that the PS4 has a lead, however it's also the home of the largest XBOX fanbase. PS4 should retain it's lead in The Americas for the entire generation due to a number of advantages including; a lower price point, better multiplatform titles, a wider variety of exclusive titles (based on PS3, yet to be seen on PS4), a boost from Project Morpheus.

In the Americas I believe that the XBO will have a 33.3% gap to the PS4, or in other words, the PS4 will have a 50% lead over the XBO. In numbers this would mean the following;

XBO - 32M
PS4 - 48M

Japan - 13 Million

This is an easier one in terms of split. I'm going to mirror the gap between the PS3 and 360.

XBO - 1.8M
PS4 - 11.2M

Others - 86.5 Million

Here I can see the PS4 doubling the sales of the XBO. The PlayStation brand has always been strong in Europe and a lot of the places that fall under the 'Others' umbrella. The only wildcard would be emerging markets like India and China. I'm going to ignore those markets for these purposes as it may increase total sales for the generation and change the balance and is to hard to predict. So if the PS4 doubles the sales of the XBO in the Others region the numbers would be as follows;

XBO - 28.8M
PS4 - 57.7M


TOTAL GENERATION SALES

Wii U ~ 20 Million
XBOX ONE ~ 60 Million
PS4 ~ 115 Million


Please go over my data if you'd like to make an argument as to why you agree or disagree with the final sales tally I have come to.

 

[Ganondolf]

PS4: 80M
Xb1: 60M
Wii U: 20M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 12M

 

[Drakeon]

These predictions all show a decline in sales from last gen.

Is this really a good sign for the industry?

Well, Wii U sure as shit isn't coming anywhere close to Wii numbers. So that's a third of the hardware vastly underperforming compared to last generation. Even given that, unless Morpheus and other VR technology really takes off in a huge way, I'm not sure we should expect this generation to beat last gen.

 

[Miles X]

PS4: 100m
XB1: 75m
WiiU: 18m
3DS: 75m
Vita: 16m

PS4 Vs XB1: XB1 will lead in US but by a few mill at best. This won't off set the 20m+ lead in Europe and 6m lead in Japan (Home consoles will regress yet again this gen).

 

[Freeman]

This is going to be so fun to look in couple of years.

PS4:100+m
Xbox: 35m
WiiU: 20m
Vita: 20m
3DS:70m

I don't think that MS will be interested on fighting an uphill battle after their initial attempts fail, they will probably bet everything on their Fortaleza glasses in an attempt to recreate what Kinect did last gen, Halo and Gears won't change their fate. I think that having to pay for Live Gold and PS+, people will be much less inclined to own both consoles. Better performance on multi-platform will become common knowledge with time, at that point the Xbox One will have to be priced considerably lower. Sony always does a good job supporting their consoles with good exclusive titles, I think it will payoff big for them this gen, they also have interesting things like good relationship with indies, PS+, F2P, Project Morpheus, PS Now, their promised IP TV service, remote play,etc.

I think the one year lead Xbox have last time combined with PS3 early years was crucial for the 360 success. Kinect also saved it from selling much considerably less than PS3.

Last gen 360 had a one year+ advantage to market(great advantage not only in sales but in building an online community), its was considerably cheaper for the entire generation, its had Epic and Bungie making games for it, its had superior performance on most multi-platform games, their Xbox Live was perceived as a superior product, Kinect gave it a sizable boost after its release. With all that Sony ended up ahead. If we look at 2014 sales PS4 has sold more than double compared to the XO, in a time where they had their biggest release of the year with am aggressive marketing captain and promotions, with all that it managed to beat PS4 for a week.

 

[The Real Napsta]

Xbox One: 80M-90M
Playstation 4: 70M-80M
Wii U: 40M-50M

I'm pretty optimistic about this generation overall. I know the Wii U can sort of do a decent job selling as it gets cheaper, the PS4 is destined to sell high numbers, and so is the Xbox One.

Of course you put xbox one ahead in sales.

 

[Melchiah]

These predictions all show a decline in sales from last gen.

Is this really a good sign for the industry?

Many seem to predict 80-100 for PS4, and 50-60 for the XB1. If they both sell about 160 combined it'll be as much as last gen sold in seven years, excluding the tide of casuals that Wii brought briefly.

It needs to be kept in mind, that the PS2 didn't sell 150 million before the next gen started. That gen's overall sales were about 175 million (~55m for DC, GC and Xbox combined) by the end of 2006.

 

[phanphare]

PS4 - 70mil
XBO - 50mil
Wii U - 20mil

 

[rob305]

Dat analyst projections.

The prediction makes sense for 2008

 

[kyser73]

Sony will equal PS3 sales WW & additionally sell the USUK 360 gap - so ~100m depending on when the gen ends.

MS will equal sales in USUK & a couple of other main territories (mainly through aggressive pricing & 'converted' 360 owners getting one for exclusives when they're cheap) but still see a drop in overall WW - ~75m.

WiiU will top out between 15-20m depending on when Ninty discontinue it or drop the price to >£200.

 

[Currygan]

PS4 - 70mil
XBO - 50mil
Wii U - 20mil

mine as well

will also add

3DS 75 M
Vita 18 M

 

[aygomyownroad]

PS4: I expect close to 100 million as they do support the console for such a long time and it's so cheap.

One: Expect to always lag behind but see people buying one after a ps4 and that would help boost numbers but overall 60 million. Sad as it seems last gen they sold so many die to RROD and Ms don't seem to support their consoles as long as Sony do.

WiiU 30 million... Wtf? Feel the opening of the Chinese Market could be really beneficial for them

 

[lightzGamin]

70 million ps4
58 million xbox1
11 million Wii u

I think this gen will be short 5-6 years max.

 

[Usobuko]

The OP numbers look probable.

 

[Ray Wonder]

Ps4 - 82.1M
XB1 - 71.6M
Wii U - 18.3M

EDIT: V-Tech V.Smile TV - 135M

Spoiler

Because China

 

[TheSinkingKnight]

PS4: 76,543,182
XB1: 62,445,112
WiiU: 9,999,999

 

[Manmademan]

The ps3 and 360 are at about 80 million each. That's the high bar for Microsoft and the low bar for Sony. Neither the ps4 nor xbone will be close to these numbers.

Without their massive lead in the US, and higher price worldwide, MS is going to struggle to 60 million. That's about where parity in the US would have put them last generation. Maybe lower it another ten million, if worldwide sales continue to be terrible.

Sony seems to have picked up Microsofts casual audience, and with the wiiu completely dead will likely have the majority of the holiday sales looking for the hot game of the year, whatever that is. A 30 or
40 million increase is probably realistic. I would say 120 million is where they'll end up.

So between MS and Sony, you're looking at about a 20 million unit increase worldwide in their shared audience over last generation, which is reasonable given the lower price point of the ps4, and stronger sales in developing markets.

The wiiu is finished, only the Nintendo hardcore are paying attention to it. Somewhere between 10 and 15 million.

 

[LiamR]

PS4: 100m
Xbox One: 90m
Wii U: 20m

 

[flatearthpandas]

PS4: 60m
Xbone: 30m
Wii U: 20m

3DS: 50m
Vita: 13m

Sony has won the hearts of the "hardcore" with basically promises alone, but I still see the consoles being less and less valuable to the casual market. Those that will bite will split between all three but I suspect many won't bite at all seeing as how physical media is on its way off and digital media services can frankly be done better on other devices. This gen is a pretty sad war for the living room from all sides.

 

[Dysun]

PS4 - 70 Million
Xbox One - 45 Million
Wii U - 12 Million

Xbox One will stay competitive in the US/UK but get trounced everywhere else, Wii U is already dead and will limp to an early grave

 

[yon61]

PS4 - 60M
XOne - 20M
Wii U - 9M

I predict a significant decline in the home console market. PS4 will sell well everywhere, the One will only sell decently in North America and the UK. Wii U on the other hand is as good as dead already, there isn't much scope for it to sell more than it already has.

 

[Ray Wonder]

PS4 - 60M
XOne - 20M
Wii U - 7M

I predict a significant decline in the home console market. PS4 will sell well everywhere, the One will only sell decently in North America and the UK. Wii U on the other hand is as good as dead already, there isn't much scope for it to sell more than it already has.

1 more million for Wii U? That's the bleakest prediction I've seen yet for it.

 

[Tailzo]

PS4: 60M
Xone: 55M
Wii U: 15M
3DS: 50M
Vita: 10M

I really do enjoy my Vita though

 

[LiamR]

PS4 - 60M
XOne - 20M
Wii U - 7M

I predict a significant decline in the home console market. PS4 will sell well everywhere, the One will only sell decently in North America and the UK. Wii U on the other hand is as good as dead already, there isn't much scope for it to sell more than it already has.

I think it's naive to think that the Wii U won't sell more than 1m more through the rest of its lifespan, considering it's been out for less than 2 years and Mario Kart hasn't been released yet. Nor Zelda, Smash Bros and whatever else is coming to it.

 

[yon61]

I think it's naive to think that the Wii U won't sell more than 1m more through the rest of its lifespan, considering it's been out for less than 2 years and Mario Kart hasn't been released yet. Nor Zelda, Smash Bros and whatever else is coming to it.

1 more million for Wii U? That's the bleakest prediction I've seen yet for it.

For some reason I had thought the Wii U was still around 4 million sold, until I realized I got it confused with the Xbox One. Edited my post.

 

[The Maverick]

The gap between the Xbox One and PS4 will be closer to 40 million than 20.

PS4: 90
One: 50
Wii U: 14

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

[PS4] 90M
[Xbox] 45M
[WiiU] 13M

 

[sportz103]

You people realize that for the Xbone to "close the gap", that would mean it has to be outselling the PS4 worldwide over and over and over again

If they just meant the gap gets smaller than they just have to not lose by as much each month. A far more likely scenario.

 

[Hades Hotgun]

Lifetime
PS4 = 100-150 million
XB1 = 30-40 million
WiU = 10-15 million



Sony will dominate worldwide and lead in the US, UK, and Can. Xbox will occasionally win NPD once PS4 hits market saturation, but it will never lead LTD. That is my most confident prediction based on current info. My total numbers are based on my guess that the PS4's success is not overly front loaded, but actually representative of a sustained demand.That is my least confident prediction.

I think that for many people the Xbox and WiiU will be secondary consoles in much the same way that the GameCube and OG Xbox were.

The possibility for a major contraction of the market will depend on how high the PS4 sales can get. I do not consider last gen's total Wii sales to be a genuine expansion of the market, but rather an aberration, so I do not think 260 million combined sales are even possible. I believe the PS4 will out perform the Wii, but that the other consoles will lag considerably.