We will see the Zelda sales when the game launches and we will see if the "media" impressions are something to have in mind to measure a success or failure.
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What would happen to Nintendo if the NX flops like Wii U?
- Thread starter Booker.DeWitt
- Start date
We will see the Zelda sales when the game launches and we will see if the "media" impressions are something to have in mind to measure a success or failure.
formasymphonic
Member
If Apple wants to ever get serious about gaming they are going to need to:
A) Encourage higher pricing / "premium" games to alter the economics of the App Store.
B) Focus more on innovative control input methods than just touch (as it exists now).
C) Have a box in the home that's more powerful than the current TV, with something that will encourage consumers and the industry to want to be a part of it.
To do these they would need to set a precedent by launching a new box/console with a stable mix of family friendly and some more core gamer friendly IP. Ones that people would be willing to pay for because of their reputation for quality and general brand recognition. This also provides them with more market differentiation from Android and Windows
Does that sound familiar to anyone? Who could provide them with that?
Does that sound familiar to anyone? Who could provide them with that?
Nintendo.
Nintendo are a well known family oriented company with multiple family friendly and some hardcore IP with recognition that no other company will be able to match for many years.
For Nintendo, they are getting squeezed on both ends by continual advancements in mobile (as well as the race to the bottom for casual gaming), and at the high end by Sony / MS / PC. Although they might be able to do something great with whatever they have planned in NX, that market that propelled the Wii and the DS variants is unlikely to ever hit the same numbers again due to differences in the market.
Phones and other mobile devices offer more functionality and better software / connectivity, OSes, account systems, UI, etc etc etc than anything Nintendo can currently offer.
So what are Nintendo's options?
Try to negate mobile's advantages by making a phone?
— Do they make their own OS?
This is a terrible idea, and if Palm (WebOS), Microsoft (WP), Samsung (Tizen), can't get traction, what hope do Nintendo have?
— Do they adapt another OS?
This is also another terrible idea. They would more than likely end up using some variant of Android like Amazon do (FireOS). Can you imagine what the piracy levels will be once someone (inevitably) figures out a way to port/run Nintendo-android games on regular Android?
— Do they go full third party and just make games for everything?
This opens them up to the vast support headaches of different configurations of hardware for Android devices alone, never mind also supporting iOS and consoles.
Nintendo are a company that has long understood the value of software designed around the hardware and the value of having their IP be exclusive to their platform. It's not just a business decision but a mantra / ethos that the company lives by. They have always been strongly independent and could only ever truly partner with another company that understands those values.
Does that sound familiar to anyone? Who could provide them with that?
Try to negate mobile's advantages by making a phone?
— Do they make their own OS?
This is a terrible idea, and if Palm (WebOS), Microsoft (WP), Samsung (Tizen), can't get traction, what hope do Nintendo have?
— Do they adapt another OS?
This is also another terrible idea. They would more than likely end up using some variant of Android like Amazon do (FireOS). Can you imagine what the piracy levels will be once someone (inevitably) figures out a way to port/run Nintendo-android games on regular Android?
— Do they go full third party and just make games for everything?
This opens them up to the vast support headaches of different configurations of hardware for Android devices alone, never mind also supporting iOS and consoles.
Nintendo are a company that has long understood the value of software designed around the hardware and the value of having their IP be exclusive to their platform. It's not just a business decision but a mantra / ethos that the company lives by. They have always been strongly independent and could only ever truly partner with another company that understands those values.
Does that sound familiar to anyone? Who could provide them with that?
Apple.
Apple can provide them with a better system OS to build their games on, on cutting edge mobile hardware and software designed around it. By only designing for one platform and relatively fixed sets of hardware, they can allow for the lowered support requirements and optimisation they wouldn't be able to get if they made games for everything. Remaining as a first-party only studio also allows them to maintain the exclusivity of their IP's that helps them retain their value. They also no longer need to worry about competition from mobile when they are making games for hardware that does iPhone numbers. An addressable market MS and Sony would kill for (and are attempting to induce with the move to incremental hardware releases).
A lot of work would need to go into the merger. I'm not saying would all be perfect, but there is potential for both sides to gain as a single company. Apple could buy Nintendo and they remain "Nintendo" (getting rid of the brand is a mistake), they make games for a single platform (iOS/tvOS) and gain all of the benefits of mobile and a stronger OS foundation. While Apple gains legitimacy in the home/gaming space with a set of world class IP that matches their own product values.
But anyway, like I said, I don't really think it would ever happen.
I think only two platforms is too few (it would end up like mobile where there is iOS and android and that's kinda it. I personally don't believe a duopoly is healthy for the industry long-term).
And yeh most people won't buy multiple systems, but they'll buy a Phone, TV and gaming system. So Nintendo may eventually have to secure themselves in one of those 3
The mobile space where cell phones and tablets reside is not a blue ocean. That shit is beyond red.
dead souls
Member
Nintendo is facing a lot of problems, but the fact that the NX won't be as powerful as Neo or Scorpio isn't one of them. The contention that that would even matter is laughable.
digitalrelic
Banned
The NX won't have full third party support. Nintendo's history with third parties over the last 10+ years can attest to that. I'd be shocked to see a game like Madden or Call of Duty on the NX. And I mean the full games, not some special gimped Nintendo version.
I just used 4k as an example. The Playstation and Xbox have a history of being much better media consumption devices than any of the Nintendo consoles. I mean, the Wii U can't even play DVDs for christ's sake, let alone blu-ray. No support to play your files through the network or off of an external drive. No HBO GO or HBO NOW or several other streaming apps either. Bottom line is, if you're interested in media consumption, Nintendo has proven to be a poor choice compared to other options out there.
I'll restate that I'm in with the NX day one, and I'm excited to play it. I just have my doubts about it's chances for mainstream success.
MarkMclovin
Member
People need to realize that you don't buy a Nintendo console for the CoD's or the Fifa's or the Battlefields. You'll already be part of an xbox or PS ecosystem for that.
You buy a Nintendo console for the Nintendo games.
You buy a Nintendo console for the Nintendo games.
But if the NX has the same power as a PS4, why would it cost more than a PS4? Come on now. If Scorpio and Neo are $399, PS4 and X1S will be $299, and NX will be $249.
But realistically? Neo/Scorpio will be $499, PS4/X1S $349, and NX $299.
Any way you cut it Nintendo will be offering the cheaper model. And I think it will see close to Wii levels of success if the third parties are there and it is correctly marketed.
LukasTaves
Member
We won't know for sure until Ninty announces everything, but I get the impression that they are prepared for that.
I'm guessing NX will be a platform spamming from their new console, their new dedicated mobile, and Android/iOs. All with the same games and network.
That way their consoles become the prime experience, but even if they don't sell that much the mobile sales will bring the revenue they need.
Don't know *how* Nintendo will pull that off, but with all that's said so far I think that's also suits perfectly on their Blue Ocean strategy.
I'm guessing NX will be a platform spamming from their new console, their new dedicated mobile, and Android/iOs. All with the same games and network.
That way their consoles become the prime experience, but even if they don't sell that much the mobile sales will bring the revenue they need.
Don't know *how* Nintendo will pull that off, but with all that's said so far I think that's also suits perfectly on their Blue Ocean strategy.
Poltergust
Member
Didn't the Wii U turned out to be profitable in the end? It's not much of a profit, but still.
Will the NX do even worse? I honestly have no idea.
Will the NX do even worse? I honestly have no idea.
Herbspiceguy
Member
They will just continue their hardware+software business and try to recapture the blue ocean once more.
Possibly a bigger focus on mobile.
Possibly a bigger focus on mobile.
NHarmonic.
Member
IMO, Nintendo's first party deliver is consistent and excellent, if they'd deliver a console that didn't alienate 3rd party devs and you had Nintendo's first party stream of games i'd really switch tbh.
Maybe that's just me, but i feel in the end, all the gimmicks tend to slowly die and be forgotten/ not needed, motion controls for example. I'm not saying the wii was a fad though.
And that's how they got where they are now.
Why? Especially with the recently announced cross platform-online play on X1 and PS4, if the NX can play these games just as well as a PS4/X1 and the games are there, why? Come on, now.
Bots are better than you
Banned
And what is E3 if not MEDIA impressions and hype? You criticize them for not hyping, they did hype Zelda, plan an own event for the system just to have "exclusive" hype, and now you're trying to downplay the hype you put more focus on in this discussion to begin with.
What is it now? As of now, it looks to me like cringeworthy "trying to hard".
ForsakenLotus
Member
I have to make some assumptions, so I apologize for that.
The NX will be launching in 2017 for presumably more money than the PS4/Xbox One but less than the Neo and Scorpio. It will presumably be more powerful than the PS4/Xbox One and will almost undoubtedly be less powerful than the Neo and Scorpio. It will be launching sometime in between the 2016 and 2017 holiday seasons. It's game library will start from scratch whereas the PS4 and Xbox One will have a substantial games library.
Furthermore, few Nintendo games benefit from more power versus PS4 and Xbox One exclusives. Honestly, I think the NX's power is much more important for third party games.
As to the casual crowd that hasn't purchased a PS4/Xbox One/Wii U, I think you are only somewhat accurate. I think a decent amount of casual gamers have bought a PS4 and I think quite a few of them that haven't bought a console this generation are content with phone, tablet and PC gaming.
Without actually knowing what the NX is performance wise or even just as a general concept, I can't say how it will compare to the PS4 and Xbox One. Some rumors have said it is definitively if not hugely more powerful than the PS4 while others seem to point to it being marginally better. Considering the PS4 and Xbox One launched in 2014 and the NX is launching in 2017, one would have hoped the NX would be much more powerful than the PS4 and that doesn't appear to be the case.
Also, it will be launching after the PS4 has easily surpassed the 50 million sold mark. That is a very, very tough hill for the NX to climb considering the PS4 doesn't show many signs of slowing down.
As to E3, I find it very disingenuous to compare NX not showing their next entirely new console, of which details are extremely vague at best, to Sony and Microsoft announcing more powerful revisions of their consoles. Nintendo is about to launch their next generation.
Honestly, I don't feel like going more in depth because your attitude is quite frankly very unappealing.
StAidan
Member
If the NX flops then Nintendo will just try again. I think we have pretty good reason to expect a greater measure of success this time, though. Nintendo followed up their blue ocean product (Wii) with a red ocean product (Wii U), and it was obvious to me even from the first Wii U reveal that success was not in the cards for them in Generation 8.
Reggie's Bloomberg interview, along with a number of other scattered statements from executive leadership, seem to indicate that Nintendo understands that a return to the blue ocean is in order.
Reggie's Bloomberg interview, along with a number of other scattered statements from executive leadership, seem to indicate that Nintendo understands that a return to the blue ocean is in order.
KentBlake
Member
Very much this.
They have LOTS of money in their accounts. Like, a LOT. And apparently, they could live on for 15 years (i may be wrong about the number) without any money going in.
I wonder though: could it happen that Nintendo would go back to be in the power race they were with the gamecube era?
In any case, NX will be the last console created under Iwata. This will be the end of an era, or the beginning of a new one.
I wonder though: could it happen that Nintendo would go back to be in the power race they were with the gamecube era?
In any case, NX will be the last console created under Iwata. This will be the end of an era, or the beginning of a new one.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Blue ocean is in quotation marks because its a fucking stupid way to look at consumer electronics anyway, especially in the modern era. There are only so many oceans after all. The next big one is VR and AR, and Nintendo aren't equipped to enter either. Couldn't even get their dreamcatcher off the ground.
EdwardTeach
Member
If it flops I see them pulling out of the gaming market and going fully into shoes. This thing with vans is blatantly Nintendo testing the water. Trust me in 10yrs time kids won't believe that their favourite shoe company used to make games.
nephilimdj
Member
If the NX flops, could end up being pulled from shelves like Vita. Honestly retailers are not charities.
LegendofLex
Member
This is really arbitrary, and most people who don't pay attention to Digital Foundry won't notice and most people who buy Nintendo consoles won't care.
The sales of multiplatform games on Wii U weren't poor because the ports were poor; they were poor because there was no market opportunity for those ports.
Hyping to sell. Zelda won¡'t sell more Wii U's. And it remains to see if it will sell NX consoles.
But my point is that you won't have another E3 to show your console to the "media".
Okami Haundo
Member
I would argue that they got where they are now with bad marketing and poor development output. The Wii-U didn't make a clear distinction at launch as to whether or not it was even a new console. Add to that the fact that Nintendo's own internal studios had a ton of trouble with HD game development and you had a fuzzy console launch with no "great" games.
Looking back now, the Wii-U finally has a fantastic library of games, but they were spread too thin. I think a new console with that many quality exclusives jammed into a shorter period of time would at least make a strong case for itself.
Heck, just look at Nintendo's game output between Wii-U and 3DS for the past few years. If you could condense that those releases to be on just one platform, they could support a system on their own.
I personally want to see NX third-party support in the form of exclusives games/experiences. Getting games like Battlefield and COD give a console broader appeal, but there are already 3 platforms to choose from for those titles.
dreamlongdead
Member
Thanks for making this post, because a lot of people keep missing your point about the cash reserves. I made a post in another thread where I exactly stated that the Wii and DS profits eroded due to the performance of their current machines.
I don't know what to expect from NX, but another flop would be devastating. I hope Nintendo turns it around.
paradise_circus
Member
I think it will turn out okay if the NX will be comparable to the current consoles. Scorpio and Neo won't be the common denominator but the ps4 and one. Hence, some multiplatform project will find its way to the NX. Besides the thirst for "good" Nintendo games is huge as we can see with Zelda. It's not that for instance captain toad is not a good name, but gamers prefer AAA budget stuff which can be visibly and technically been seen.
As the sales rises with bigger games developed by Nintendo thirds will be attracted even more as the NX base rises.
I even think that Nintendo pretty much has an ideal release window now, because other consoles will be released as well and folks get hyped for new consoles.
But if Nintendo pulls another Wii, 3ds and wiiu move again putting to much effort in stupid and expensive gimmicks, then Nintendo will finally prove me for the last time that they are plainly stupid.
As the sales rises with bigger games developed by Nintendo thirds will be attracted even more as the NX base rises.
I even think that Nintendo pretty much has an ideal release window now, because other consoles will be released as well and folks get hyped for new consoles.
But if Nintendo pulls another Wii, 3ds and wiiu move again putting to much effort in stupid and expensive gimmicks, then Nintendo will finally prove me for the last time that they are plainly stupid.
DrROBschiz
Member
Well its not like they can afford to worry about failure as a distraction
They just need to put their best content and effort to the forefront and see what happens
They just need to put their best content and effort to the forefront and see what happens
Father_Brain
Banned
Exactly. If the demographic for IP like COD, AC, and Arkham were on Wii U to any significant degree, those ports would have sold much better on name recognition alone.
……forgetit
Member
If that stays the case, Nintendo hardware will disappear
I'm sorry, but I'm just not seeing that. You can't honestly tell me a call of duty designed to run on the PS4 works "just fine" on the Wii U. The reason you can't tell me that is because the games simply aren't there at all. (Due to the generation gap created by the Wii) Reason being is the hardware can't even handle them. NX is already confirmed to have modern hardware. Third parties have already confirmed that it's great. All Nintendo needs to do is
1) get all of the best third party games on board. That means EA, Activision, Ubisoft and 2K.
2) market the fuck out of the NX, commercials that pull the nostalgia strings as well as showcase that this isn't another Wii product, and it has the same library as a modern gaming console.
Done.
lwilliams3
Member
Well, one thing about Zelda is that Nintendo nailed the presentation and clearly defined how the game is positively different from the recent games. If they give such a clear message on what the NX is about, they would already in much better shape than with the Wii U.
There are probably still people out there with misconceptions to what the Wii U is. :/
hemo memo
Gold Member
They'll go back to hanafuda cards.
But seriously, they'll focus on handheld and mobile I think.
Not enough.
But seriously, they'll focus on handheld and mobile I think.
Not enough.
Minus the Wii? So you're just dismissing the Wii. I remember back in 2004, people were making very similar statements to you. Then the Wii AND THE DS happened. You're very dismissive of Nintendo's successess, saying they were abnormalities just because they are counter to your flawed narrative. Yes, the Wii U didn't do well and yes, the 3DS has had several issues due to the market, but that in no way means Nintendo is incapable of finding success again. That's defeatist.
Hybrid is not a good idea at all. I'm perplexed that you seem to think that it'd be a good one.
ForsakenLotus
Member
I wouldn't mind those Donkey Kong's at all!
The Abominable Snowman
Member
I think their dedicated handhelds will be fine, and they're going to be a nonfactor in the console race unless they capture lightning in a bottle again.
If their handheld ever tanks, then it looks like they're already testing the mobile waters. Smartphones now are powerful enough to give us compelling games, but the input methods currently suck for traditional games. So i hope they also consider PC or console.
If their handheld ever tanks, then it looks like they're already testing the mobile waters. Smartphones now are powerful enough to give us compelling games, but the input methods currently suck for traditional games. So i hope they also consider PC or console.
Bots are better than you
Banned
Can Nintendo make a Neo-like device in early 2017? Yes. Should they do such a device? No. Everyone hoping for a Neo or Scorpio contender is plain deluded in terms of Nintendo.
Why should they make an enthusiast device for a non-existing market, when they can make a PS4/XOne like device for a mass-market price, and STILL be in the spec ballpark of what devs all around the globe have to develop for as a baseline.
Now we're back to consoles sold, wondered how long it would take. What does the number of PS4's sold have to do with NX, if Nintendo aims for a cheaper system that could very well seen as a companion device? It boils down to one thing, returning to sales pre-Wii/Wii U, which would already be an improvement. Coupled with some smart business decisions like not selling at a loss and a more steady flow of content due to the streamlining of development.
Nintendo launches a new generation, and here's how average joe, aka the mass-market that Nintendo aims, sees Neo and Scorpio: "The new Playstation" and "The new Xbox", and now we add "The new Nintendo" to it. Neo and Scorpio extending the lifespan of the vanilla consoles' generation is actually helping in this case. For that, a solid timeframe of hype starting this fall can be enough already.
And honestly, i'm fine with you not going more in depth, as your thinking is heavily flawed and disregarding/ignoring facts and information.
Yeah they won't, they will have a standalone event without Sony and MS being present and showing of their stuff and VR.
One thing, I'm not critizising the Zelda show (in fact I like it a lot) but I think Nintendo could do a lot more and they are simply losing chances.
NX will live or die by the content that releases within the launch window. They've been taking their sweet time with it and hopefully it's to concentrate on quality/quantity of launch titles. Raw power is not as important to Nintendo games as it is to MS or Sony exclusives. If the NX is on par with the PS4/XB1 (hoping for slightly stronger HW but realistically not expecting much) then I think they will be OK as far as 3rd party support goes. Obviously they aren't going to compete with Neo or Scorpio but they might not need to with the no-exclusives policy that both Sony and MS are claiming to adhere to.
If the NX flops I hope they just go 3rd party but I don't really see that happening. Just doesn't seem their way. Partnering with Apple could be good as well as maybe releasing stuff on PC.
If the NX flops I hope they just go 3rd party but I don't really see that happening. Just doesn't seem their way. Partnering with Apple could be good as well as maybe releasing stuff on PC.
LegendofLex
Member
1) This won't happen unless Nintendo pays tons of money to get those games, which Nintendo won't (and shouldn't) do for the same reasons third parties aren't paying for them themselves.
2) This won't suddenly make NX - a platform made by Nintendo, the company whose mantra is to make games that attract new people to gaming - more attractive for hardcore/mature/Western/AAA titles than the consoles where the exclusives are more often than not just as hardcore/mature/Western/AAA as the third-party multiplatform titles. The problem with Nintendo is that the values of their library are completely different than the values of Western AAA gaming.
Nintendo would have to, in addition to making games for their broad-appeal franchises, make tons of mature, hardcore first-party games and court lots of Western hardcore exclusives to compete with the likes of God of War, Horizon: Zero Dawn, Halo, Gears of War, and fucking Hideo Kojima. Otherwise, PS4 and Xbox will always be the better platforms for those types of games - they'll have the better libraries in that department.
There is no universe where Nintendo can focus on both of these priorities/audiences at once on a single platform. The needs of the "new market gamers" are too different than the needs of hardcore gamers.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
They'd try again. They have big cash reserves and are expanding revenue streams with Amiibo, mobile games, theme parks, licensing IP etc.
They'll keep putting out hardware until we're at the point that media is all digital/streaming and all processing is cloud based.
They'll keep putting out hardware until we're at the point that media is all digital/streaming and all processing is cloud based.
I'll buy your premium 60 dollar games all day, just don't become greasy.ForsakenLotus
Member
The Wii is pretty much the dictionary definition of a statistical abnormality. Every Nintendo home console since their first one sold less that its predecessor, and pretty significant declines too. After the GameCube barely sold more than 20 million units and was Nintendo lowest selling console at that time, ten the Wii sold over 100 million units - by far the highest selling Nintendo home console of all time. Now we have the Wii U, which won't even sell 20 million units.
Use whatever term you want: abnormality, fad, lightning in a bottle, luck, etc.
Surely it's easier to believe Nintendo won't be able to replicate the Wii's success than to believe they can, uh, catch lightning in a bottle twice.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
A flawed narrative doesnt have a clear downward slope in hardware sales as its basis. A flawed narrative is pointing to the one anomaly and saying "that again plz!".
The tech world is so different to 2004 that even mentioning the scuttlebutt of that era is ridiculous. The Wii succeeded because it attracted people that dudnt buy entertainment tech to buy entertainment tech. Now EVERYBODY does that with phones and tablets having become life necessity.
A hybrid understands that Nintendo can only support one platform which can pull in 50-60 million unit sales again which MAY in turn attract third parties and others again. Separate home and handheld launches is a waste of momentum and separates their base again. Playing Zelda on the go and then from the same 'game pad' at home is a REAL USP.
Nintendo doesnt make good home consoles anymore but they do make portable entertainment with buttons. The time to focus on that almost exclusively is now before more rot sets in.
I disagree. I think the Wii is more than "lightning in a bottle". That's disingenuous and implies it was sheer luck. Nintendo can have a successful device and it's illogical to just assume otherwise. Declines 15+ years ago are irrelevant within the context of the here and now
I don't think you quite realise how expensive a hybrid would be, or how low spec it would have to be. Do you really think they could get Zelda Breath of the Wild working on a device that's designed to be portable that doesn't have the battery life of ass?
You'll undoubtedly respond saying "mobile phones do it", but they don't. They are ridiculously costly when not subsidised.
You're also assuming that there's no way Nintendo could lure others into gaming or back into dedicated gaming. There's a lot of assumptions on your part.
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
Nintendo will do whatever they want to do if it flops because they're stubborn and rich as fuck.
AstroNut325
Member
Yup. And most people aren't going to spend $300+ USD to play just Nintendo games. So if the gimmick doesn't catch on, it's another Wii U situation. Offer a competitive product and it would at least entice the current gaming community.