Economy would take a hit. Certain states like Texas would be fucked. Prices for certain items would go up. American companies producing in Mexico are in trouble.
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White House readies order on withdrawing from NAFTA
- Thread starter studyguy
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Economy would take a hit. Certain states like Texas would be fucked. Prices for certain items would go up. American companies producing in Mexico are in trouble.
More generally, one day the US will need strong friends and allies, and there won't be any left. I'm not sure how any Western countries will look at this and say 'I want to work closely with this country that just betrayed his best partner'.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
It's kind of hard to fan the flames of immigrant hate if immigrants aren't coming over.
An example of someone voting to protect their personal legacy is not exactly inspiring.
It will also result in mass migration northwards, loving the play there.
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
Time for Mexico to hit up the EU and China.
Mortimer Brewster
Member
My guess is he does or at least Navarro and Bannon no which is why they are drafting it. They get to keep a campaign promise that puts the screws to Mexico which plays to his base. They know the other agreement shields the Canada side of things from the devastation and when sitting down to update the old agreement gives him to chance to extract concessions for things like the dairy industry and softwood lumber.
Vicetrailia
Member
Mexico (1995) and China (2001) entering the WTO is what lead to the offshoring jumps rather than the trade agreement between Mexico, Canada and US.
We're gonna get higher prices now, but there's still the issue of labor costs for low margin and mfg tech products. Don't expect mfg to come back more now than it has been recently, unless it's high tech mfg processes (but I mean those come in from China not Mexico anyway).
Well, we'll see about the EU on May 7th.
The NAFTA text specifically says that if US withdraws it remains in place with respect to Canada and Mexico.
RPGCrazied
Member
Trump is going to rape this country blind and all because Trump voters hated Hillary. Way to go assholes.
Given his 'negotiating' record with Health Care, Taxes, and the wall, I'm of a 'wait and see how long it takes until he folds again' mindset.
This seems to be his *only* negotiating tactic - Do what I want or I'll take my ball and go home. When called on it, he sorta just jumps to something else like he's a hyperactive cat.
This seems to be his *only* negotiating tactic - Do what I want or I'll take my ball and go home. When called on it, he sorta just jumps to something else like he's a hyperactive cat.
sankt-Antonio
:^)--?-<
These fucking cunts.
Texas gets fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked.
Hari Seldon
Member
Trump voters hated NAFTA. NAFTA is the scapegoat for middle class jobs being outsourced, rightly or wrongly.
Operations
Member
This is dumb, 40% of the value content of Mexican exports are of US origin. Let's not even start about the damage to the US farm industry, where México is their #1 or #2 consumer of most of their produce (mainly corn).
Also, this only goes to show the rift that persists in the WH between the Wall Street establishment (Wilbur Ross who is in favor of a sensible renegotiation) vs the Fringe Wing (Bannon, Navarro).
Also, this only goes to show the rift that persists in the WH between the Wall Street establishment (Wilbur Ross who is in favor of a sensible renegotiation) vs the Fringe Wing (Bannon, Navarro).
Trump looks nothing like Marlon Brando.
Gai Murakumo
Member
Well they are about to fuck over quite a number of people on all sides of NAFTA. Hope you are happy Trump voters.
dskillzhtown
keep your strippers out of my American football
Can't wait to hear what Texas leaders have to say about this. This would completely fuck the entire state.
But this news comes days after taking shots at Canada's trade policies and vowing to change them. Does he think it's NAFTA causing the issues he's knee-jerking to regarding dairy and lumber?
He does, actually.
Trump can withdraw the United States from any treaty unilaterally, whether it be the UN Charter or the Geneva Conventions.
The US Constitution doesn't say anything about how treaties are rescinded, only ratified, and over time the precedent has been that the President can terminate any treaty. Carter returned the Panama Canal to Panama without senatorial or Congressional approval, for instance.
Kennedy is supposedly retiring and he was a swing vote.
They will ride this all the way to hell.
KernelPanic
Member
Trump voters, in other words.
Like everything Trump says, this is meant to appeal to people who have no idea how anything works.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
NAFTA fucked over a lot of people in the US.
Problem is it's been in place so long rolling it back won't actually fix any of the shit it broke while also getting rid of the net positives.
There's an argument to be made that NAFTA as it was drafted wasn't the greatest. The genie is out of the bottle so to speak now though, and I'm not sure rolling back NAFTA is actually the answer.
Problem is it's been in place so long rolling it back won't actually fix any of the shit it broke while also getting rid of the net positives.
There's an argument to be made that NAFTA as it was drafted wasn't the greatest. The genie is out of the bottle so to speak now though, and I'm not sure rolling back NAFTA is actually the answer.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
So, in general "incomplete contracting" is one of the biggest sources of tension and conflict in the world. What this means is that a lot of negative situations arise because we need to trust other people, but we can't trust them.
Suppose you're pointing a gun at someone and they're pointing a gun at you. Neither of you wants to die or kill. So you ask them to lower their gun and you'll lower yours. But why would they lower their gun, because if they do, they'll shoot you. The mechanism you need to solve this is a way to force you both to stick to the deal. That's a contract.
Treaties are contracts. Ideally every country would set policy that benefits them maximally and doesn't care about anyone else. But then no one would ever agree to do anything. So treaties are about give-and-take. And the reason you can believe that treaties will work is that, presumably, a) politicians face a major domestic cost for breaking treaties; b) third-party international monitors like the WTO can adjudicate disputes.
Okay, suppose NAFTA is bad, and you want to withdraw. The problem is now why would any country, ever, trust you on a treaty again? Knowing that you'll just break it when you feel like it's not going your way. The treaty is no longer a contract. And we're back to people pointing guns.
The problem with "the Art of the Deal" is that it's just "the Secret". "If you want something, you'll get it". Yeah, except that's not how being an adult works.
Suppose you're pointing a gun at someone and they're pointing a gun at you. Neither of you wants to die or kill. So you ask them to lower their gun and you'll lower yours. But why would they lower their gun, because if they do, they'll shoot you. The mechanism you need to solve this is a way to force you both to stick to the deal. That's a contract.
Treaties are contracts. Ideally every country would set policy that benefits them maximally and doesn't care about anyone else. But then no one would ever agree to do anything. So treaties are about give-and-take. And the reason you can believe that treaties will work is that, presumably, a) politicians face a major domestic cost for breaking treaties; b) third-party international monitors like the WTO can adjudicate disputes.
Okay, suppose NAFTA is bad, and you want to withdraw. The problem is now why would any country, ever, trust you on a treaty again? Knowing that you'll just break it when you feel like it's not going your way. The treaty is no longer a contract. And we're back to people pointing guns.
The problem with "the Art of the Deal" is that it's just "the Secret". "If you want something, you'll get it". Yeah, except that's not how being an adult works.
RPGCrazied
Member
Why I'm mad, I'm a Texan. Our economy is going to plummet.
Why would they want that problem to end? It's been great for their retail politics.
And_Gignac
Member
It won't if a trade replacement is found with Euro / China.
It won't because most of the immigration to US since the 90s can be traced to how much NAFTA fucked the agricultural industry in Mexico. Farmers couldn't compete against cheaper US vegetables.
It's an absurd theory, because he's the one in charge. Tanking the economy will just turn people against him.
RPGCrazied
Member
Yep, sold out his own voters. Why am I not surprised?
KernelPanic
Member
Don't think he cares. People like him suck a country dry, profit and flee elsewhere when it implodes.
BlastProcessing
Member
Hurting Texas and California's economies is a feature, not a bug. Both Texas and California's demographic shifts need to be halted and reversed to keep the angry white guys in power.
Tanking the economy will turn the people against somebody. They are confident they can direct that anger where they want it. And why wouldn't they be? They have already successfully sold bigger lies.
Is this still a thing? The primaries are over people.
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
Sorry US , no more guacamole. Unless you like :
That's just the seasoning though.
You still need the avocado, so we're still well and truly fucked.
Sadly, people are fucking dumb:
Pres Obama now doing $400k speeches for Wall Street
Please note that the OP does not include what the speech is about, because it didn't fit the narrative.
BlastProcessing
Member
Farmers from southwest Mexico you mean, Sinaloa agricultural industry is booming (with a lot of labor coming from southwest mexico) because of NAFTA.
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