Whatever Nintendo targets will be the new "casual."
Go plumb the depths of IGN's and Gamespot's reviews from around 1998-2004. You'll see the word "accessibility" pop up frequently. "Accessibility" is code for "this game is hard," or "this concept is strange," or even "these controls are too complex." It's essentially a complaint that a game may not be able to be enjoyed by everybody who comes into contact with it.
Then around 2005 the word "accessibility" wanes and "casual" pops up. Gee, I wonder why?
I've said this before, but I wager that the new pejorative for the next generation will probably be "eastern." Wii U looks like it is taking several moderate steps forward in processing technology and stopping short before it becomes unsustainable, essentially carving out a "safe place" for development. I've heard that this will definitely appeal to lower, mid, and even a few upper tier developers, at least the ones who are sane about budgeting and don't have a vested interest in selling other developers engines. When I think of "lower, mid, and some upper tier developers," I immediately think Japan. If Nintendo can keep dev costs down enough for the lower and mid tier, they can succeed in getting some surprising exclusives, especially when dev costs for the competitors get so high that it's either make games for the Wii U or die. This, in turn would lead to an eastern influx of software for the Wii U, and that would provide a rather easy distinction for the next generation, as in, PS4/720 = Western Tech Manly, Wii U = Eastern Weeaboo Gay.
I should also be honest that I hate the idea of a hardcore/casual divide and think it's purely invented, but I didn't always think so. I believed it for about 2 years until I saw that the purveyors of such concepts were ready to throw gaming icon Super Mario under the bus to continue this bullshit division. Then I became aware that "casual" is just a way to spell "kiddy" with a "C."