Support NeoGAF

[Nikana]

Well, the X actually has some potential to force Sony to move, if the X starts selling extremely well and then multiplats start to completely leave the ps4 in the dust from a graphics perspective. Sony could of course start pushing the pro harder with a price drop and marketing to effectively combat the X though to hold for a Ps5 until 2020 or 2021. I think by 2019 though we will start to hear some concrete rumblings at least about Ps5. A fall 2020 release is a 7 year life cycle, and 4 years after pro release. Both systems will be looking long in the tooth a bit even by fall 2019, with the X looking relatively advanced.

I mean I get the logic here but is sony really that concerned? They are making money and PlayStation is one of their profitable brands for a company that was struggling to make money.

Introudcing a new machine just because the competition is beating you in power, just doesn't make sense to me.

But I guess if they make ps5 100 percent backwards compatible, it would lessen the blow of starting a a whole new generation when you're already doing so well.

Obviously the ps5 will be based on Ryzen and Vega, but I wonder how easy it'll be to make it backwards compatible with Jaguar and... I'm blanking on the name of the GPU class in bone and PS4, but you get what I'm asking. 😂

 

[paulogy]

The install base gets increased with casuals purchasing slims and 1 S for $199-249 during the holiday period. The X keeps existing users in the ecosystem. If here is no X, more people jump ship to the Pro. By announcing the X a year ago, they assured users that there will be a product for them if they wait 1 year. Instead of them buying Pros last year and this year

The PS4 Pro was discussed as a means to keep people in the PlayStation ecosystem that would otherwise jump to PC.

I think a very similar argument could be made for Xbox One X (to prevent people jumping to PC, or PS4, or Switch for that matter, if not all of them), but that's not how it was marketed. And folks who think the One X will bring in millions of new people to the Xbox family are likely mistaken, if the people buying it are upgrading. A super-cheap Xbox One S might though...

 

[neoemonk]

I bought a Pro and I regret it. I'm not surprised by this. I should have just kept my original PS4.

 

[Obliterator]

While one can hope, I honestly don't think that's gonna happen. Sony is in a "no fucks given" mode for the Pro. Especially when it comes to 1080p owners (look at that terrible 5.0 update for example).

Yeah The most disappointing thing about the Pro is how little it really adds for 1080p users. At least in that regard MS seems to be approaching X better than Sony with the Pro

 

[ZOONAMI]

I mean I get the logic here but is sony really that concerned? They are making money and PlayStation is one of their profitable brands for a company that was struggling to make money.

Introudcing a new machine just because the competition is beating you in power, just doesn't make sense to me.

But I guess if they make ps5 100 percent backwards compatible, it would lessen the blow of starting a a whole new generation when you're already doing so well.

Obviously the ps5 will be based on Ryzen and Vega, but I wonder how easy it'll be to make it backwards compatible with Jaguar and... I'm blanking on the name of the GPU class in bone and PS4, but you get what I'm asking. 😂

More likely it will actually be a Zen2 and Navi based APU. I just don't see Vega as working out because of how power hungry it is. The arch in Xbox x is Polaris related iirc and ps4 pro is effectively og ps4 but 2x the CUs and shaders. GCN allows easy BC for PS4 and Xbox one these upgrade iterations. Navi is supposed to be a clean break from GCN so BC will be more difficult.

Either Ps5 will include a ps4 chipset for BC or it will emulate like Xbox does for 360.

 

[Alebrije]

Not surprised , it's a great hardware machine, 4K movie player and great backlog.

Really do not care for the lack of new IPs.

 

[Ushay]

Damn, so many jimmies rustled in this thread. Yikes man.

OT - Looking forward to the actual hardware and how well it reviews and measures on things like DF and review outlets.

 

[Clear]

Do you honestly believe the number of scalper pre-orders is significant enough to change the assessment of this article?

Without seeing actual figures who can say how significant any of this really is? Its a nice headline, and the truth is that for a certain consumer segment the One X is inarguably a very desirable purchase.

That being said, its also a situation where pretty much every factor lines up in its favor; NA is Xbox' strongest market, its launching at a time of maximum consumer spend/demand, opportunist/scalper buyers will be in play, and given its likely to appeal most to die-hard Xbox fans' advance commitment is likely to be stronger than usual.

Not saying its not a win for MS, just that it may be painting a more flattering picture than is actually warranted.

 

[tokenflipguy]

When you don't show the numbers it's concerning, but at least it shows interest in it.

 

[mike4001_]

It really does look a bit odd that a console preorder exceeds the "more popular" console in sales from all of 2017. If it´s against PS4 Pro sales in Q3 I would believe it instantly but for the whole year ..

Good for MS if it´s true, but ... looks the Amazon data is off ;-)

 

[Gestault]

Without seeing actual figures who can say how significant any of this really is? Its a nice headline, and the truth is that for a certain consumer segment the One X is inarguably a very desirable purchase.

That being said, its also a situation where pretty much every factor lines up in its favor; NA is Xbox' strongest market, its launching at a time of maximum consumer spend/demand, opportunist/scalper buyers will be in play, and given its likely to appeal most to die-hard Xbox fans' advance commitment is likely to be stronger than usual.

Not saying its not a win for MS, just that it may be painting a more flattering picture than is actually warranted.

Unless Pro numbers legitimately dropped down to terminal levels in NA after launching, I don't think there's a resonable way to downplay the success of three days of pre-orders outselling eight months of cumulative sales, unless there's some specific extenuating circumstance. The prevarication in your post, conscious or not, is really pronounced.

I doubt anything close to this is sustainable, and I doubt it makes a long-term change in anyone's buying habits, but this result for a new product isn't the sort of thing to skirt around the success of. It's a good signal for the console market.

 

[hanspampel]

Some things to consider before seeing this as a huge win for Xbox, which it is as far as interest is concerned, but is still very much unknown with regards to raw sales figures.

• Amazon != the entire US market.
• US market != WW market.
• Amazon has a "hassle-free" preorder model, meaning that no money is exchanged at the time of preorder, only when the preorder ships. This could lead to anywhere from 0% to 100% of these being fulfilled, depending on whether there are any customer or Amazon initiated cancelations, whether through lack of disposable funds or overselling their allotment, and anything in between.
• There have been multiple Pro SKUs throughout 2017 that don't count towards the sales of the base model on Amazon's ranking list. Same with One S.
  
• Do we know the breakdown of percentage of preorders among the top 5 US retailers?

Zhuge's initial tweet looks to be an observation, whereas the WC article seems to extrapolate based on data that's not readily available, or is so ambiguous that it may as well be non-existent.

There are still too many unknowns to get me up to those higher levels of excitement for Xbox, and we likely won't see the full picture until next year. Still, it's good to see the X "outselling"* the Pro** this early in its life cycle.

If I've missed anything that may paint a clearer picture, definitely point it out (citations would also be a plus). This post also isn't meant to be console wars bait, just an objective look at what this data does or doesn't tell us.

*Preorder v. soldthrough to end user.

**Based on Amazon US sales ranking of single, base model SKUs.

What SKUs are that?
i just know the white Destiny Bundle. Other than that, there was never a different Pro SKU in the US beside the standard Model, afaik

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

What SKUs are that?
i just know the white Destiny Bundle. Other than that, there was never a different Pro SKU in the US beside the standard Model, afaik

There was the Extra Controller bundle as well.

 

[Primethius]

Unless Pro numbers legitimately dropped down to terminal levels in NA after launching, I don't think there's a resonable way to downplay the success of three days of pre-orders outselling eight months of cumulative sales, unless there's some specific extenuating circumstance. The prevarication in your post, conscious or not, is really pronounced.

I doubt anything close to this is sustainable, and I doubt it makes a long-term change in anyone's buying habits, but this result for a new product isn't the sort of thing to skirt around the success of. It's a good signal for the console market.

While the preorder statistic is great, you have to remember that this is only Amazon and the US. So while outselling 8 months of cumulative sales is impressive, it sounds far more impressive than the actual numbers.

Amazon's share of Pro sales for 8 months in the US is about 40k. Put that into the context of a fall launch in November where you're going to have a lot of initial, upfront sales. Again, it's impressive the preorder statistic. But there is a point where you can read for too much into it given the data being used.

 

[ThanksVision]

do we have any idea when the regular xbox one x will be available on amazon?

 

[ZOONAMI]

Is there any actual Intel on how many Xs MS produced for launch period?

 

[KORNdoggy]

It really does look a bit odd that a console preorder exceeds the "more popular" console in sales from all of 2017. If it´s against PS4 Pro sales in Q3 I would believe it instantly but for the whole year ..

Good for MS if it´s true, but ... looks the Amazon data is off ;-)

the pro was on sale for 3 months at the end of 2016, during christmas and black friday. this is likely where most of the pro's entire sales were made. it's a system catering to a very small demographic and with no real price cut in sight for a year at the very least. most people will have picked it up in that time frame. that's when i picked mine up. very few of the bundles and deals and special edition consoles even include the pro, it shows how it isn't sony's priority, and so sales mirror that. i'd be surprised if the pro made up even 5% of total PS4 sales every month on amazon at this point.

the "more popular" console is the base PS4. that's sony's priority, that's what's selling the most and that's what will continue to sell the most. i would honestly have been worried if MS weren't outselling the pro this year. question is, are they outselling the pro's first 3 months too? THAT would be impressive.

 

[Swass]

It's 2013 all over again:

Asda: ‘Xbox One is our fastest selling pre-order console' June-03-2013

GameStop stores hit Xbox One launch cap, pre-orders ceased June-16-2013

GAME closes Xbox One Day One Edition pre-orders Aug-29-2013

Microsoft: Xbox One pre-order supply nearly sold out Sep-4-2013

Does anyone truly believe that this isn't a marketing tactic?

I'm just hoping for 2018 to be the repeat of 2014 when we get a $100 price drop and free games and gift cards thrown in.

 

[hanspampel]

There was the Extra Controller bundle as well.

that is not a different SKU
that is a bundle containing 2 items the standard SKU and an extra Controller
it's even described as that on the page

 

[KORNdoggy]

Is there any actual Intel on how many Xs MS produced for launch period?

someone on gaf mentioned gamestop were only getting 13 of the "scorpio" edition consoles each. that's the only data i've seen in regards to the x. dunno if that's true, but it seems limited.

 

[Seganomics]

the pro was on sale for 3 months at the end of 2016, during christmas and black friday. this is likely where most of the pro's entire sales were made. it's a system catering to a very small demographic and with no real price cut in sight for a year at the very least. most people will have picked it up in that time frame. that's when i picked mine up. very few of the bundles and deals and special edition consoles even include the pro, it shows how it isn't sony's priority, and so sales mirror that. i'd be surprised if the pro made up even 5% of total PS4 sales every month on amazon at this point.

the "more popular" console is the base PS4. that's sony's priority, that's what's selling the most and that's what will continue to sell the most. i would honestly have been worried if MS weren't outselling the pro this year. question is, are they outselling the pro's first 3 months too? THAT would be impressive.

Or maybe, other than the early adopters, people just haven't been that impressed by the Pro?

 

[Nick_C]

What SKUs are that?
i just know the white Destiny Bundle. Other than that, there was never a different Pro SKU in the US beside the standard Model, afaik

PS4 Pro w/ 12 mo. PS+

PS4 Pro w/ extra controller

PS4 Pro w/ Destiny 2

PS4 Pro base model

Those are the 4 available now v. the 2 One X product pages (base and Scorpio edition), only one of which charted. This, however, doesn't change the fact that we are only comparing a single listing against another single listing and trying to form a trend based on that. The only thing we can gather from the two points of data is that the X has more preorders than the base model listing of the Pro has sold at this time, in 2017, on Amazon, in the US.

that is not a different SKU
that is a bundle containing 2 items the standard SKU and an extra Controller
it's even described as that on the page

I've changed SKUs to product pages, as that is a more accurate term for the top 100 items sold list on the Amazon page. They seem to track sales generated from individual pages as oppsoed to retailer made bundles.

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

that is not a different SKU
that is a bundle containing 2 items the standard SKU and an extra Controller
it's even described as that on the page

Ah, my mistake. I thought they were tracked for charting individually. Thanks.

 

[ZOONAMI]

PS4 Pro w/ 12 mo. PS+

PS4 Pro w/ extra controller

PS4 Pro w/ Destiny 2

PS4 Pro base model

Those are the 4 available now v. the 2 One X product pages (base and Scorpio edition), only one of which charted.



I've changed SKUs to product pages, as that is a more accurate term for the top 100 items sold list on the Amazon page. They seem to track sales generated from individual pages as oppsoed to retailer made bundles.

I would think anything bundled including the base pro SKU would track to the base ps4 pro product page? Cam you even find those bundles charting anywhere?

 

[Nick_C]

I would think anything bundled including the base pro SKU would track to the base ps4 pro product page? Cam you even find those bundles charting anywhere?

The reason why I would think differently is that each one has their own separate URL attached to them. They could count towards total sales, but without Amazon stating so we'll never know. Again, we're dealing with a lot of ambiguity here, so we can't really find what is true or not.

 

[REV 09]

Still pissed at no regular edition preorders. Don't want green text on a $500 console.

 

[shandy706]

I bought a Pro and I regret it. I'm not surprised by this. I should have just kept my original PS4.

What I'm doing.

OG PS4, X1X, PC, Switch.

 

[cakely]

Still pissed at no regular edition preorders. Don't want green text on a $500 console.

They're coming, man. We're still a couple months out.

 

[killatopak]

I keep seeing ps5 for 2019 from multiple people.

Did I miss something where 2019 became the expected date? The PS4 sales are still extremely healthy. I would think 2021 at the earliest.

I think Pachter was predicting that date.

 

[Inuhanyou]

I've always thought 2019 just because 6 years is a good amount and close to previous gens, but i would not be surprised by 2020 either

 

[Nick_C]

For anyone interested, the rankings are now #5 Xbox One X - Project Scorpio Edition and #61 PS4 Pro.

It should be noted that the X is now sold out, but the Pro is still available. These numbers will more than likely change by this time tomorrow.

 

[hanspampel]

Ah, my mistake. I thought they were tracked for charting individually. Thanks.

I've changed SKUs to product pages, as that is a more accurate term for the top 100 items sold list on the Amazon page. They seem to track sales generated from individual pages as oppsoed to retailer made bundles.

I would think anything bundled including the base pro SKU would track to the base ps4 pro product page? Cam you even find those bundles charting anywhere?

to be fair, they are tracked "individually", but also count towards the normal SKU
so a Amazon Bundle of 2 or more items can shoot up the chart as that bundle, but also increase the sales of the individual items.

you see this happen during Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Prime Day
but this only occurs on the Hourly Chart (at least i never noticed it on the Weekly, Monthly or Yearly Charts)

Anyone that wants one that is willing to wait (e.g. Has other stuff to play/do), I highly recommend holding out for a deal within the next year.

i'm pretty sure people will be able to get the regular Xbox One X during the holiday season

 

[Pancakes R Us]

It's 2013 all over again:

Asda: ‘Xbox One is our fastest selling pre-order console’ June-03-2013

GameStop stores hit Xbox One launch cap, pre-orders ceased June-16-2013

GAME closes Xbox One Day One Edition pre-orders Aug-29-2013

Microsoft: Xbox One pre-order supply nearly sold out Sep-4-2013

Does anyone truly believe that this isn't a marketing tactic?

I'm just hoping for 2018 to be the repeat of 2014 when we get a $100 price drop and free games and gift cards thrown in.

Anyone that wants one that is willing to wait (e.g. Has other stuff to play/do), I highly recommend holding out for a deal within the next year.

 

[flkraven]

It's 2013 all over again:

Asda: ‘Xbox One is our fastest selling pre-order console’ June-03-2013

GameStop stores hit Xbox One launch cap, pre-orders ceased June-16-2013

GAME closes Xbox One Day One Edition pre-orders Aug-29-2013

Microsoft: Xbox One pre-order supply nearly sold out Sep-4-2013

Does anyone truly believe that this isn't a marketing tactic?

I'm just hoping for 2018 to be the repeat of 2014 when we get a $100 price drop and free games and gift cards thrown in.

It was the biggest launch of any Xbox console and like over a million units in 24 hours.

 

[Liabe Brave]

It's 2013 all over again:

Asda: ‘Xbox One is our fastest selling pre-order console’ June-03-2013

GameStop stores hit Xbox One launch cap, pre-orders ceased June-16-2013

GAME closes Xbox One Day One Edition pre-orders Aug-29-2013

Microsoft: Xbox One pre-order supply nearly sold out Sep-4-2013

Does anyone truly believe that this isn't a marketing tactic?

Well, it certainly wasn't just marketing in 2013. The Xbox One had a bigger launch than any console in prior history.

For anyone interested, the rankings are now #5 Xbox One X - Project Scorpio Edition and #61 PS4 Pro.

You're looking at the "hourly" chart, which is not actually the sales in any particular hour. It's a predictive trend thing, so is extremely unreliable for ranking and predictions. However, the thread is about the yearly ranking, which is more steady (though not faultless by any means). There, One X is at 66, Pro at 90.

 

[De_Legend]

It's 2013 all over again:

Asda: ‘Xbox One is our fastest selling pre-order console’ June-03-2013

GameStop stores hit Xbox One launch cap, pre-orders ceased June-16-2013

GAME closes Xbox One Day One Edition pre-orders Aug-29-2013

Microsoft: Xbox One pre-order supply nearly sold out Sep-4-2013

Does anyone truly believe that this isn't a marketing tactic?

I'm just hoping for 2018 to be the repeat of 2014 when we get a $100 price drop and free games and gift cards thrown in.

Lmao, kinda true.

 

[ZombieNapoleon]

Good for Microsoft as I think they'll need this shot in the arm moving forward. The industry doesn't benefit from a one sided fight and Sony will always find a way to screw up, however minor it maybe. As a Sony first guy I was looking at the OneX and tempted by the overall upgrades in graphics for the third party games I could swing that way (Assassin's Creed coming to mind), but for me the $500 was still too steep. With the coming two years I think we'll see the next iteration of console generation from Sony, so I rationalized the money I saved could be better used for games and an upgrade from the WiiU to a switch. I still have the One S for exclusives, 4K Blu Rays and the shooters my Xbox friends are on.

Who knows, I may breakdown and get one if the price comes down by holiday 2018.

 

[Swass]

Well, it certainly wasn't just marketing in 2013. The Xbox One had a bigger launch than any console in prior history.

That wasn't a high bar to beat since neither the OG Xbox or 360 were popular at the time of their launch.. The bigger point is they kept claiming sold out even though the Xbox One was easily obtainable at launch and the "day one edition" was on store shelves throughout 2014.

 

[Liabe Brave]

That wasn't a high bar to beat since neither the OG Xbox or 360 were popular at the time of their launch.

I didn't say "bigger than any prior Xbox". The Xbox One launch was bigger than every console in prior history, from all manufacturers.

 

[paulogy]

PS4 Pro w/ 12 mo. PS+

PS4 Pro w/ extra controller

PS4 Pro w/ Destiny 2

PS4 Pro base model

Those are the 4 available now v. the 2 One X product pages (base and Scorpio edition), only one of which charted. This, however, doesn't change the fact that we are only comparing a single listing against another single listing and trying to form a trend based on that. The only thing we can gather from the two points of data is that the X has more preorders than the base model listing of the Pro has sold at this time, in 2017, on Amazon, in the US.



I've changed SKUs to product pages, as that is a more accurate term for the top 100 items sold list on the Amazon page. They seem to track sales generated from individual pages as oppsoed to retailer made bundles.

They are all different ASINs, which seems to be Amazon's version of an ISBN, so it seems they are all tracked separately.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

They are all different ASINs, which seems to be Amazon's version of an ISBN, so it seems they are all tracked separately.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/6427871011/?tag=neogaf0e-20

The PS4 console section's top 30 include 4 different PS4 Pro SKUs, so it apparently you're right.

 

[Fredrik]

I didn't say "bigger than any prior Xbox". The Xbox One launch was bigger than every console in prior history, from all manufacturers.

Wut? Is this true? After the DRM PR disaster and 1 year delay in like half the world I would've guessed that it had an awful launch.

 

[AmFreak]

It was the biggest launch of any Xbox console and like over a million units in 24 hours.

Every console this gen broke records.
The WiiU(!) was the 2nd fastest selling console of all time (after the Wii).
The reason for this is simple - supply.

 

[hanspampel]

Wut? Is this true? After the DRM PR disaster and 1 year delay in like half the world I would've guessed that it had an awful launch.

Yes that is true, because the Ps4 launched 2 weeks later outside the US and Canada
15th November 2013 in the US + Canada
29th November 2013 in Europe and other markets
many markets were even later in December and Japan was February 2014


right now the Switch should be the biggest console launch in History

 

[Liabe Brave]

Every console this gen broke records.
The WiiU(!) was the 2nd fastest selling console of all time (after the Wii).

This is completely incorrect. The GBA, DS, Wii, and 3DS all launched faster.

right now the Switch should be the biggest console launch in History

This is completely incorrect. Multiple consoles were higher in the initial 5-6 weeks, and they mostly have stayed that way. Normalized to 17 weeks, here are launch-aligned sales:

PS4: 6.99m
GBA: 6.52m
Wii: 5.43m
XB1: 4.92m
NDS: 4.90m
[B]SWI: 4.70m[/b]
3DS: 4.42m

After another quarter of results, Xbox One may slide down the list (though 3DS may rise up it). But Switch is very unlikely to ever catch any of the other entries above it, or at least not until late in its life.

 

[kubev]

Still pissed at no regular edition preorders. Don't want green text on a $500 console.

I'm still waiting for the regular version, as well. It's not the text on the console that bothers me, though; the text on the controller drives me crazy. I can understand the text on the console potentially being sideways based on whether the console is standing up or not, but having the text on the controller sideways is just weird. Its alignment and general placement really bugs me, as well.

 

[AmFreak]

This is completely incorrect. The GBA, DS, Wii, and 3DS all launched faster.

Console as in Home console ofc.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Console as in Home console ofc.

Even assuming that restriction, it's still incorrect to say the WiiU broke records. It didn't break the record set by its predecessor.

 

[AmFreak]

Even assuming that restriction, it's still incorrect to say the WiiU broke records. It didn't break the record set by its predecessor.

Maybe you should reread my post.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Maybe you should reread my post.

Okay:

Every console this gen broke records.

WiiU did not break Wii's record. So that seems pretty clearly incorrect.