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[Principate]

In defence of the ‘Dead on Arrival’ crew, the January reveal was a bit naff and Nintendo have never been very good at marketing. I still wouldn’t be surprised if they hype us up for a Metroid reveal at E3 and it turns out to be ‘Metroid Federation Dildo Hunters’.

Anyway, it will sell gangbusters. The simple ability to hit a button and immediately start playing a game as good as Zelda is a game changer for me. Love it to bits. And I have a feeling that Mario Kart is about to take over my life (once again).

I thought the game adverts themselves were great. I'm not sure how much they could really be improved to get the point across. This issue was people came in expecting loads of games and a lower price and ended up with a good selection but few games and a higher than expected price.

Combine that with GAF's love of hot takes and you get hat reaction.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

* shipped, let's not make an incorrect narrative that Zelda has a > 100% worldwide (only Americans are weird enough for that lol).

Sold in.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

I wonder if by now Nintendo regrets forgetting to make more games in time for the launch of Switch.

I have a feeling stuff like Arms, Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2 are essentially done. They're spaced out to give each title room to breathe.

I think it's more third parties in the regrettable position for not having more ports lined up and leaving indies to occupy that space.

 

[SwordStruck]

They're going to need some units on shelves if they want to sell 15 million this fiscal year. Great to see it doing well, but they have always been terrible at meeting demand when the demand is actually there.

 

[Milly Osworth]

”It is surprising that Zelda is doing so well, but it also proved what we have been saying is right: A good game title will spur sales of the platform device," Mr. Kimishima said.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/iwat...one-game-away-from-reversing-fortunes/0145690

”On another front, we have witnessed one single software title completely change the entire picture of our business many times."

Iwata cited the example of the Game Boy, whose sales spiked well into its life cycle following the debut of Pokemon.

Iwata was right, it didn't save wiiu though, but it made Switch a success already. GG Iwata!

 

[t hicks]

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

 

[Skittzo0413]

I've been saying 12 million units sold LTD by the end of FY17 is a very good baseline for expectations, but it wouldn't surprise me for it to be above 15M. But now some analysts are expecting 17-18M? That would be monstrous.

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

To be fair most of us (including me) voted above Gamecube levels. But yeah some of those posts are kinda funny.

 

[Zedark]

Sold in.

I think the BOTW shipment numbers show that they were in fact expecting a close to 1:1 ratio worldwide, and they started shipping more when they found out they really needed to bring more units to the market in the launch month. A great result no matter how you slice it.

 

[Machina]

 

[SinCityAssassin]

To be fair most of us (including me) voted above Gamecube levels. But yeah some of those posts are kinda funny.

Above Gamecube would still be correct if the Switch sells slightly less than the Wii

 

[Zedark]

I've been saying 12 million units sold LTD by the end of FY17 is a very good baseline for expectations, but it wouldn't surprise me for it to be above 15M. But now some analysts are expecting 17-18M? That would be monstrous.



To be fair most of us (including me) voted above Gamecube levels. But yeah some of those posts are kinda funny.

Well, more than 50% voted Gamecube tier or below.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

My original estimation was around 3DS numbers, so 60-70 million.

I thinks it's probably going beyond that now.

 

[Bulbasaur]

So much delicious crow!

 

[Winthorpe]

I thought the game adverts themselves were great.

I agree. The TV marketing was excellent but I think the Switch 1-2 presentation with two men in arseless chaps pretending to shoot one another and the HD rumble stuff incorrectly hinted at the switch being gimmicky, when it is anything but.

Other than that, to date, I can't really fault them on their strategy. It's been almost perfect. And I fully expect Nintendo to knock it out of the park at E3. Reggie's very confident comments about Metroid to Gamespot (something like 'come back and ask me that same question next year') suggests they have some really exciting announcements in store.

 

[Hilarion]

I read this differently, more like he's saying "we knew a great game sells a system, but the extent to which BOTW is successful surpassed our expectations."

I agree with you, though: BOTW and the sandbox style Supoer Mario Odyssey are much more appealing to me than a linear style game in either franchise. I do hope they take the BOTW lesson and give us more of the big games!


The Switch screen is much better than the one my phone has, so it would definitely be my Netflix machine of choice!

I'm on the opposite end. I like well-crafted linear titles and BOTW left me cold.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Mario on PS4 within six months.

There's no way Nintendo can handle this sort of success.

Watch as Mario Kart 8 on PS4 Pro has frame drops because of its shit Jaguar CPU.

/s

Nah but Nintendo gonna sell more than 10 million Switches easy.

 

[Panajev2001a]

More at the link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendo-offers-bright-outlook-on-expectations-for-switch-1493278400



As shown in the article, some analysts think the 10 million Switch hardware units forecast for FY3/2018 is too conservative/cautious.

We'll see how things go during the next quarter.

Weird... I did not think they would have posted a loss this year without the sale of the Seattle Mariners...

 

[gogojira]

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

Amazing

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Weird... I did not think they would have posted a loss this year without the sale of the Seattle Mariners...

They wouldn't. They would've only made a modest profit of around $300 million.

 

[jroc74]

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

I had to see if I posted in that thread...I did.

Whew...lol.

Like I said then, anyone saying doomed or it was going to fail seemed to forget about the 3DS. The Switch is a handheld to many ppl.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Above Gamecube would still be correct if the Switch sells slightly less than the Wii

Exactly. Although now I'm beginning to be unsure of that prediction too, since I'm of the opinion the Switch will have a longer lifetime than the Wii. I wouldn't be all that shocked to see it get past Wii numbers and maybe even up to DS numbers if they keep it alive for 7-8 years, with various revisions.

Well, more than 50% voted Gamecube tier or below.

True, good point. That'll be a fun thread to revisit in several years.

 

[Jonneh3003]

E3 will put an end to the "Switch has no games" nonsense going around. There's a lot of surprises in store.

 

[Zedark]

E3 will put an end to the "Switch has no games" nonsense going around. There's a lot of surprises in store.

Not until Bloodborne launches on the system.

Spoiler

I think that's correct?

 

[Milly Osworth]

E3 will put an end to the "Switch has no games" nonsense going around. There's a lot of surprises in store.

You know something or just speculating?

 

[Jonneh3003]

You know something or just speculating?

 

[Ninja Dom]

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

Thread is still open, take names!

 

[Wafflecakes]

I wonder if by now Nintendo regrets forgetting to make more games in time for the launch of Switch.

Yeah... I am sure they are disappointed in a 100% sell through.

 

[Skittzo0413]

You know something or just speculating?

Even if he does know something it's not like it's controversial to say there will be new games announced at E3.

The amount of surprises is what I wanna know though!

 

[Machina]

not a chance in hell.

First post and all that.

 

[marmoka]

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

We should laugh at ourselves. I said it would fail if I remember. Happy to be wrong.

 

[PSFan]

Articles like this are kinda dumb. Would a company ever offer a bleak outlook for their new product?

 

[schuelma]

Articles like this are kinda dumb. Would a company ever offer a bleak outlook for their new product?

If you read the article, you would see that analysts are more optimistic than the company..

 

[Zedark]

Articles like this are kinda dumb. Would a company ever offer a bleak outlook for their new product?

Well, they are obliged to give FY reports, and it's the people outside Nintendo who decide whether it's a bright or bleak outlook, so yes, they would do that (and would try to obfuscate it as much as possible of course).

 

[Skittzo0413]

Articles like this are kinda dumb. Would a company ever offer a bleak outlook for their new product?

You're responding to the headline, not the actual article. The actual article has some interesting information including analysts projections for Switch hardware being far higher than Nintendo's own forecasts.

 

[flkraven]

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

Here's my prediction of how everything will go down with the Switch:

-Preorders will sell out
-It will be difficult to find for a month or two
-Every sales thread on here for the first 2 months will inevitably include snarky people posting some variation of "But I thought Nintendo was doomed?" in the same vein as those that post "but I thought console gaming was dead" in NPD threads during the first year of PS4/XB1.
-It will get some decent play on mainstream media (ie. Today show, etc), but the gaming press will largely be 'ho-hum' on it.
-Once the Nintendo hardcores get their console, sales will slow down.
-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

At this point, if there isn't a major shift it's all downhill. Either a massive price drop, unprecedented influx of first party games or a huge wave of third party support are the only things that possibly save it.

-Sales stagnate in 2018
-Holiday 2018 it looks much more like the Wii U and the same discussions start popping up every where (ie. Should Nintendo go 3rd party? etc etc)

 

[J@hranimo]

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

Dude no one cares about your list of wishes and wants for the Switch to become a lackluster system.

 

[phanphare]

E3 will put an end to the "Switch has no games" nonsense going around. There's a lot of surprises in store.

that nonsense will never end seeing as how it wasn't accurate even at launch and especially not now

 

[Trago]

crow thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333545

I definitely said that it would flop.

Gimmie that crow y'all! Deep fried with some BBQ sauce!

 

[jroc74]

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

Good point, lol

 

[Charamiwa]

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

Analysts now saying that the console might outsell the Wii U in the first year, so even if your bleakest prediction comes true and it becomes as irrelevent as the Wii U by christmas 2018, it'll still be a much better affair.

It depends what you meant by a strong first month or two I guess? If you meant like the Wii U, it's safe to say you were wrong.

edit: also considering the kind of coverage Zelda and Mario Kart got, I wouldn't say the gaming press is "ho-hum" on it. And ARMS literally just made the cover of Edge as I was typing this lol

 

[PSFan]

If you read the article, you would see that analysts are more optimistic than the company..

Well, they are obliged to give FY reports, and it's the people outside Nintendo who decide whether it's a bright or bleak outlook, so yes, they would do that (and would try to obfuscate it as much as possible of course).

You're responding to the headline, not the actual article. The actual article has some interesting information including analysts projections for Switch hardware being far higher than Nintendo's own forecasts.

Yeah, I get all that. But it's still kinda dumb that they have higher expectations than the company does.

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

Spot on so far. And I agree. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next 6 months or so. For all we know, this thread could become the "crow thread" by then.

 

[gogojira]

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

Great, now we'll have two threads to bring up.

 

[Kouriozan]

Analysts were being called crazy for estimating 8+M Switch for this FY last month.
Nintendo will have a pretty good year, let's hope the stock issues will be resolved soon too.

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

So they just have to announce Pokémon Star on Switch for this holiday then.

 

[Jonneh3003]

that nonsense will never end seeing as how it wasn't accurate even at launch and especially not now

Tell me about it. For a system thats nearly 2 months old the library is pretty golden. Not only are there lots of diverse indie games but the larger titles have so much replay value. I don't want to see my Mario Kart 8 Deluxe play time, it currently says played 8 days ago so I guess I'll find out on Saturday D: I can tell you now it's more than 25 hours.

 

[Zedark]

Yeah, I get all that. But it's still kinda dumb that they have higher expectations than the company does.

Well, the onus is on Nintendo to live up to their predictions, so they are more likely to be conservative in their estimates than anyone outside of Nintendo is, I would think.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Tell me about it. For a system thats nearly 2 months old the library is pretty golden. Not only are there lots of diverse indie games but the larger titles have so much replay value. I don't want to see my Mario Kart 8 Deluxe play time, it currently says played 8 days ago so I guess I'll find out on Saturday D: I can tell you now it's more than 25 hours.

I know, and it's crazy how much more you can (and WANT to) play games on this compared to other consoles. I'm having 15 minute Binding of Isaac sessions during my lunch breaks basically daily.

And then 2 hour sessions in bed after my wife is asleep. Actually you know what, I think I'm just heavily addicted to Binding of Isaac.

 

[callhitman]

We are still at the bolded section of my prediction. If you had said "But I thought Nintendo was doomed" then I would have nailed it.

-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228486940&postcount=4108

We are already past the bolded section. The upcoming games will lime Kart, Arms, Splatoon and Mario Are not a lack of games, will keep it in the main stream and people don't care about paying for online. And come Holiday 2017 it shows more quality then both Wii and GameCube for your average consumer.

 

[Jonneh3003]

I know, and it's crazy how much more you can (and WANT to) play games on this compared to other consoles. I'm having 15 minute Binding of Isaac sessions during my lunch breaks basically daily.

And then 2 hour sessions in bed after my wife is asleep. Actually you know what, I think I'm just heavily addicted to Binding of Isaac.

For sure, I wouldn't have played Zelda this much on Wii U. It's just so easy to pull the Switch in and out of sleep mode and play for a quick session.

 

[Orniletter]

So much positive Nintendo news on GAF is quite suprising lol.

Expect maximum damage control by the usual suspects. You know who I'm talking about.

 

[Soundslike]

I think it's more third parties in the regrettable position for not having more ports lined up and leaving indies to occupy that space.

I agree. Games like mr shifty, gem and snake pass, are making easy money.

But we should be happy that we arent flooded with rushed ports.