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WSJ: Nintendo Offers Bright Outlook on Expectations for Switch
- Thread starter ggx2ac
- Start date
Not sure what was up with the DOA arrival group. But put me in a group that believes that Nintendo won't be able to maintain this level of growth throughout the end of the year unless they make a pricing adjustment or offer a good bundle during Holiday
I thought the general expectation is that they would start off strong and tapper off as they progress along?
When it comes down to it, price is ALWAYS king. You can't expect Nintendo to put this same performance at the same price point against $200 Xbox One S's and PS4 Slims w/ bundled games.The PS Pro will likely hit $350 at retailers w/ at least one bundle game.
I think that it would do a lot better than the Wii U did, but Wii U sales performance did give us insight to why the whole "Nintendo 1st party will carry them" does not always hold true. The Switch is just a further evolution of the Wii U - much better executed in design and marketing.
I thought the general expectation is that they would start off strong and tapper off as they progress along?
When it comes down to it, price is ALWAYS king. You can't expect Nintendo to put this same performance at the same price point against $200 Xbox One S's and PS4 Slims w/ bundled games.The PS Pro will likely hit $350 at retailers w/ at least one bundle game.
I think that it would do a lot better than the Wii U did, but Wii U sales performance did give us insight to why the whole "Nintendo 1st party will carry them" does not always hold true. The Switch is just a further evolution of the Wii U - much better executed in design and marketing.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
Are you expecting them to announce new HW three months after the launch of the Switch or with magic you refer to great Switch SW?
I feel like I need to see the complete software line up for the next year before I can have a more confident view of the switches 2017-2018 sales outlook.
Any significant changes in western third party perception and software participation probably wouldn't be felt until the latter half of 2018 in terms of actual releases, so Nintendo really needs a release schedule of first party big hitters as consistent as the first five months to keep up positive momentum.
But their position moving into E3 2017 is the best it's been in a long while and they'll actually have a new platform to flourish their new projects as opposed to the last two years where they were obviously buying time as they transitioned away from Wii U development.
Any significant changes in western third party perception and software participation probably wouldn't be felt until the latter half of 2018 in terms of actual releases, so Nintendo really needs a release schedule of first party big hitters as consistent as the first five months to keep up positive momentum.
But their position moving into E3 2017 is the best it's been in a long while and they'll actually have a new platform to flourish their new projects as opposed to the last two years where they were obviously buying time as they transitioned away from Wii U development.
Man we suck at predictions so bad lol
DecoReturns
Member
That dude that wanted Switch to fail is probably having a heart attack right now.
Looks like I might have slightly underestimated the Switch but still it's a lot better than what the majority of people were predicting back than.
Switch is over 150 times stronger than a N3DS, They could make an emulator I guess but they won't
never say never - We are getting Shenmue3
Although me personally and friends of mine stopped buying 3ds-wiiu games and focus on Switch releases
Evilore noooooooo
If you look at my post history about the Switch I've always expected the Switch to be successful though it's a LOT more than I thought it was (I thought it was going to have a slow start like 3DS). It was short-sighted to compare it to the Wii U situation cause the Wii U situation was heavily dictated by it's poor marketing and people not even understanding that it's a new console. The Switch fixed both of those issues and released with one of the greatest games ever made. There's no way that won't be successful in some capacity.
When the crow thread is made after the crazy high sales continue month after month this needs to be the centerpiece of the posts.
Why is that fair? What has changed that wasn't presented at the reveal? and the Switch will do well won't break 60 million unless Pokomon purchasers go crazy. I predict lifetime 40 million - which should still be okay for Nintendo.
Never saw that EviLore post before.
I have 3 kids, 3 3ds systems. We have tons of games, I think it would be cool if they could play those games on a switch.
Why not... I can hope. No matter how unrealistic that hope is.
Your hope would cause Switch to be an unmitigated disaster. You don't do that right after launching new hardware, especially new hardware that is selling really well. It would cause riots amongst earlier adopters, confuse the marketing that has been really great so far, and be a complete PR disaster.
Your hope is for Nintendo to basically kill all momentum Switch has and cause endless marketing confusion and create a big mess lol.
Nintendo has done stupid things, but never anything that stupid. They have a hit on their hands, they aren't going to willfully sabotage it.
LegendofLex
Member
Skittzo0413
Member
NTDOY opened at 9:30 am EDT about 3.5% down, I already bought me some more!
The main issue with the presentation was all of the rumors beforehand talking about a huge amount of titles (and a price of $250) which weren't shown. So the huge letdown after the presentation had to do more with expectations rather than what was actually shown.
So after time as the actual information from the presentation set in it seemed like a much better showing. At least that's how I saw it.
LegendofLex
Member
This perfectly describes how things shook out for me.
- Initial sticker shock because I expected it to be cheaper than Wii U, based on rumors + the price of Nvidia Shield
- Surprise at how few unexpected announcements showed up at the event
- Disappointment by how few titles (quantity-wise) were slated for launch day
- Realization that the lineup is actually much better/steadier/more appropriate than 3DS's or Wii U's
- Acceptance that Zelda is such a strong launch title that the number of day one titles doesn't matter
- Hype because $300 is a fine price for the best game Nintendo has put out in at least 10 years
thestopsign
Member
Many of the initial worries have been quelled.
1. High price of entry: Has yet to be an issue in most of the major regions. It will need a price drop eventually, but it is doing fine at $300 right now.
2. Zelda as the only launch title: Worked out fine. Nintendo knew they had something special on their hands with Zelda and they let it do the rest of the work.
3. Paid online/funky voice app: Rumors out of Japan have the paid online priced at ~$25 a year, which is pretty reasonable. We have yet to see how the rest of their online will function through the app, this could be a legit worry.
4. Not enough support from 3rd party publishers and weak 2017 lineup: I think Nintendo solved this in two ways, they actually paced out their line up very well on the 1st party side, then they had the Nindies direct right before launch that showed how they were going to fill in gaps between their tent pole releases. They also aren't blowing their entire load in the first year, which gives them plenty to work with moving forward. They may not have traditional 3rd party support yet, but it could come eventually if the system sells well initially (and it has).
5. High accessory prices: This hasn't really proved to be much of an issue yet, at least it isn't taken into account by many when they are thinking of buying the system. This could change as the bigger multiplayer titles are rolling out now with Mario Kart etc.
I think holding the system makes all the difference. It has a natural appeal and it will be easy to market it. The system itself is designed to be viral. You can demonstrate its versatility to someone in person very easily and play multiplayer with them right on the spot. Anecdotally, I am now personally up to 3 friends that never had a Wii U that got a Switch in its first month.
Fair enough - I had that moment too when they announced the price. I was sure it was going to be $250 based on the rumours.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
I'm in this weird in-between where I think the Switch will be successful but wouldn't be surprised if it hits a plateau sooner rather than later. Nintendo hasn't instilled the most confidence in me over the last half-decade to not cock things up somehow along the way.
There were a lot of indies announced for the system in the 2 months after the system that made it look a little better than directly after the presentation, but generally you are correct that the reaction is massively overblown in that thread (as I mention as well) and basically a combination of disgust from the joy-con section (which did go on for quite a while), the lack of third party titles, massively unrealistic expectations, and a small launch lineup.
Honestly, arguing exactly how much it will do at the end of its lifetime is pretty useless imo, because as good as the initial sales are, you can't extrapolate whether that means 40 or 100 million lifetime just yet. We need more time before we can sensibly discuss 2018-202X.
Edit: And the exact quality of BOTW was unknown as well. At that point it was 'just a great game' according to expectations, while at launch it became clear that BOTW was deemed a GOAT game, which is pushing the system big time (along with its general appeal).
catpurrcat
Member
Yeah and for them to sustain this momentum, software quality and on-time releases MUST happen. Right now people don't notice the lack of VC, apps, and games simply because BOTW is such a long adventure.
However...
I say that because I am also concerned with how low the WiiU BOTW sales are (1m?). "But wasnt it a limited release on an obselete system?". Sure, maybe. But if you are one of the 13m WiiU owners, and say all 2m Switch Zelda buyers were formerly on WiiU but instead bought BOTW on their fancy new Switch, that means only 1m copies of BOTW sold per approximately 10m WiiU owners. 10%. Wouldn't a 25% attach rate be more normal for such a huge flagship game?
Point is, we still don't have a clear picture if current Switch adopters are merely WiiU owners (aka hardcore nintendo fans) moving onto the next hardware. And why aren't those existing WiiU owners, who don't own a Switch, buying BOTW?
Still too early to call anyone wrong about the success of this.
Skittzo0413
Member
Additionally we have no idea what the lifespan will actually be, or whether there will be a lot of revisions within the same lifespan. There could be a Switch mini, Switch home, and Switch all being sold and supported in 2025 still for all we know.
You saw Skyward Sword sales figures right? And Twilight Princess? An definitely not 25%
For Nintendo's sake I hope Switch does great. I'll be buying one.
For my own selfish sake I'd love to have Sony and Nintendo IPs all on one high-end console.
Spirit Icana
Member
Heh, I remember this thread. I called Switch the true successor to the Wii and am amongst the 135 people on the second slot from the top.
Won't get a big head though. It can still miss that mark if the software isn't there, but I saw a ton of potential, with the joycons being a evolution of the Wii remotes, the hybrid idea, two cons out of the box, etc. 1-2 Switch was no Wii Sports, but Zelda finally got back to its roots, which helped that game shine above all it's flaws and shortcomings.
Looking forward to see what comes next. For me, I'm excited for Mario Kart and Arms!
Even the ADM is biased. lmaooo
Skittzo0413
Member
So many people in that thread were convinced the price would be the biggest problem, but honestly, I really don't think price matters nearly as much as we all think for video games for the mass market.
It would be one thing if it was $600 or several hundred dollars more than past Nintendo devices or the competition, but $50 more than the Wii or 3DS at launch? That's really a very minor difference in the grand scheme of things for a luxury item or even for a consumer electronics item.
It would be one thing if it was $600 or several hundred dollars more than past Nintendo devices or the competition, but $50 more than the Wii or 3DS at launch? That's really a very minor difference in the grand scheme of things for a luxury item or even for a consumer electronics item.
Meesh
Member
There's way, way too much good news floating around about Nintendo lately. It's weirding me out in an oddly paranoid way... I'm sure shit will hit the fan eventually and I can relax LOL!
It's actually great things are looking up! Wish I could find one of these Switches but they're crazy expensive on Amazon.ca
It's actually great things are looking up! Wish I could find one of these Switches but they're crazy expensive on Amazon.ca
Heh, this is funny in a way.
It's the smugness that makes it so good.
AquaWateria
Member
Its seems like there are people trying to rain on the positive news.
Welp should of known better.
Welp should of known better.
SinCityAssassin
Member
Who Watches The Evilore.
titiklabingapat
Member
I posted this in the other thread but I'm gonna make a very big claim. The Switch will surpass the Wii and then some when all is said and done.
The reasons are the following: We are truly in the age that visual fidelity is good enough across all platforms + Nintendo's one console to rule them all + first seamless hybrid nature like what Arlo pointed out.
There are games that can never be done on the Switch but it won''t be the wide gulf like it was for the Wii vs PS3/360. I expect most yearly releases (Fifa, COD) to come to it eventually, even if third parties have to do it kicking and screaming. They'll have no choice.
The reasons are the following: We are truly in the age that visual fidelity is good enough across all platforms + Nintendo's one console to rule them all + first seamless hybrid nature like what Arlo pointed out.
There are games that can never be done on the Switch but it won''t be the wide gulf like it was for the Wii vs PS3/360. I expect most yearly releases (Fifa, COD) to come to it eventually, even if third parties have to do it kicking and screaming. They'll have no choice.
panama chief
Member
Maaaaaan imagine when the console gets VC.....
perfectchaos007
Member
As we age into our late 20's and 30's, we're straying further and further from Nintendo's target demo meaning, without using personal bias on what we care about in an ideal console is generally not what the younger generation we are becoming detached from cares about. If that makes sense.
Either way, the jury is still out on the Switch's success. Almost all consoles are a success during their first 6 months on the market, but we really won't have a good gauge on its success/failure until year 3. Current outlook is pretty good but that could change on a dime if Nintendo lays a lackluster dud at E3
spot on right here. nintendo, families, summer, travelling, strongest handheld ever released, top priority for the company (sorry vita). This thing is going to blow up even more by the start of summer.. just in time for splatoon 2.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
Nah, it doesn't, to me at least. I'm almost 30 and I like what Nintendo offers more now, than when I was in my early 20s/late teens. It's the Nintendo circle for me. Start young with Mario, move on to stuff like God of War, Assassins Creed and then realize the violencetitsgore is dumb and then go back to Nintendo.
Then again, I'm probably not your average consumer. My ultimate console would be nothing but Indie Throwbacks, Platformers, JRPGs, SHMUPs, Puzzle Games and Light Gun Shooters.
It's smart of them to get Minecraft out right as school is letting out. Full-ass console Minecraft on the go, with local multiplayer is a pretty good 'shut the hell up' machine for long car rides.
catpurrcat
Member
No, I didn't know that. But the Wii also had millions of casuals and non-gamers so I wouldn't expect anything other than mario kart to have widespread appeal, proportionate to overall console sales.
The WiiU, however, IMO, the sample size of buyers probably has a higher core gamer base proportion versus Wii.
Given the BOTW sales figures on WiiU, perhaps I am wrong to assume so.
My experience, and something a lot of people might have underestimated, is that it's strongest point is that you can easily play it with friends on the go. And if those friends like what they play - there is a slight chance they'll get their own system to play it with their other friends.
Anecdotal yadda yadda etc, but I played the free demo of puyo puyo tetris with someone last week, who wanted to buy his own switch just to have a good tetris device to play against his kids and his wife. This might sound as silly as a systemseller can get, but when he said that I could only think: mario kart and other co-op/2player games will make this console thrive.
Also, Nintendo should do everything to make the upcoming Fifa game an excellent 2 player experience with the same features as the ps4 version (especially the online tournaments etc)
we just played a ton of 2p Mario Kart on lunch. Dare I say... split screen on the screen was pretty much flawless. 100% viewable and perfect performance. 3+ player was a little tiny.. 4p split screen is small but still playable.
but for 2p split screen, or single screen (bomberman), undocked is really just a terrific experience.
I'm not even looking at the Wii sales numbers anymore: I think it's going to outsell the DS.
They'll keep it alive for another year, both to get the software sales while switch is building it's audience and as a cheap entry option for children.
3DS will die during 2018, but not (yet) this year.