I voted Wii U level and am quite happy to eat crow. I love my Switch and am excited that it's doing so well. There are so many great opportunities if companies are willing to seize them, and this makes it more likely.
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WSJ: Nintendo Offers Bright Outlook on Expectations for Switch
- Thread starter ggx2ac
- Start date
I voted Wii U level and am quite happy to eat crow. I love my Switch and am excited that it's doing so well. There are so many great opportunities if companies are willing to seize them, and this makes it more likely.
But thats true for any console really. Like some of the biggest sales the PS4 seen was from the Destiny launch or a later bundle, cant remember right now. Whether its a good game or not is debatable but games ultimately sell consoles. The Wii U saw a bump in sales when Mario Maker launched.
In the case of GTA 5, I dont even know to say at this point, lol. Last gen it sold consoles, at this point its just the default game to get when getting a PS4, XBO.
I carry my Switch with me everyday. Lunch breaks at work have never been so fun. Now granted, I carry a backpack everyday but a nice Switch case isn't that large on its own.
The Main Event
Member
That's why I love GAF so much.
We haven't even arrived at the bold part of your prediction though.
By Q4 2018 it'll most likely have it's own Pokemon (even if stars doesn't happen), Animal Crossing, MonHun 5, Dragon Quest 11, Fire Emblem etc...
It will be the de facto number one platform in Japan, and it will do well in the west.
I still go by 3DS like numbers or better, between 60-70 million LTD.
So by the end of Q4 2018 I should have outsold the gamecube LTD.
It's already starting in this topic with PSfan and that other homeboy with his "wish list". Lol, I'm just waiting for the, "It's still too early to call the Switch a success." posts.
I'd say 'dead-on-arrival' crow is appropriate at this stage, but how much of a success Switch turns out to be is still a pretty uncertain question IMO. It's not yet easy to see Switch's eventual performance as separable from Zelda. We're not out of the 'Zelda-halo effect' stage, but it won't last forever - Switch will need more hit software, or general platform appeal to take over, and I'd still put myself down as unconvinced about the latter at least.
Skittzo0413
Member
I think the sales of MK8 Deluxe and April's hardware sales overall will be very telling regarding this. A lot of people are sleeping on Mario Kart which is easily Nintendo's best selling franchise these days. I'm expecting that to outsell Zelda quite handily.
I mean, MK8D is launching tomorrow, so that will do the main charge, and Zelda as support. After MK8D is the only period where I can see a slight lull, since ARMS' performance is a wildcard, but Splatoon 2 will ensure great performance once again, and after that the holidays are upon us already.
Obviously predicting a Wii type success with any semblance of certainty is a foolish thing to do, but discussing its possibility is no longer something we can just laugh at.
I'm not here to make any new predictions. You just said 'crow thread', and I implied that perhaps 54 days into a consoles life span may be a little early to 'call it'. I'm not Nostradamus, so if I end up being horribly wrong I will be happy to admit it. So far, however, things are moving in roughly the direction I expected. Let's see what the rest of the year through 2018 looks like before claiming people need to eat crow.
thestopsign
Member
Japan it looks like it's pretty locked to go the distance and challenge the 3DS and NDS in terms of hardware sales. It's a little hard to say that because it is so far out, but the starting signs are there and it has a great first year laid out ahead of it without any additional announcements.
North America I need to see an additional month or two of sales, but things are looking promising at this point considering it is still sold out and Mario Kart is about to release. It will be interesting to see if Arms and Splatoon 2 have any major impact, if they do I think you can guarantee some sort of long term success as those aren't even Nintendo's western big guns. The E3 showing will also be very telling for the west.
Europe/Rest of the World has always been Nintendo's hardest market to reach. I think price is a little prohibitive there and they need big sports titles to appeal to the market. It might find more success there after a price drop and a more solid library forms.
Overall I am expecting 80 million right now for Switch and 14 million this upcoming FY.
North America I need to see an additional month or two of sales, but things are looking promising at this point considering it is still sold out and Mario Kart is about to release. It will be interesting to see if Arms and Splatoon 2 have any major impact, if they do I think you can guarantee some sort of long term success as those aren't even Nintendo's western big guns. The E3 showing will also be very telling for the west.
Europe/Rest of the World has always been Nintendo's hardest market to reach. I think price is a little prohibitive there and they need big sports titles to appeal to the market. It might find more success there after a price drop and a more solid library forms.
Overall I am expecting 80 million right now for Switch and 14 million this upcoming FY.
About that...
It's likely the Switch will be even more defined by Mario Kart, considering its multiplayer and universal appeal, than Zelda.
These 2 articles among others explain it well:
http://www.express.co.uk/entertainm...eluxe-REVIEW-Nintendo-Switch-games-list-Wii-U
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidt...-the-nintendo-switch-than-zelda/#48ca05265378
MK8 appears to sell more than any game that is not Zelda on amazon this year, and it's more viral than it. The out of the box 2 player multiplayer on the go will do wonders to show the game to others, the new smart steering controls will achieve to make anyone enjoy it, even non gamers.
So I think you underestimate it, look no further for more hit software. Then there's Minecraft, Arms, Street Fighter 2, NBA Playgrounds, Splatoon 2 in the next few weeks. They could all be hits on this system.
I don't think it's entirely a crow thread. Still a bit too early to tell. I think it will surpass the Cube but beyond that depends on the games.
I think people were exaggerating, cause of the price and paying for online
It's a crow thread because of the non-nuanced answers in there. "DOA", "Not a chance in hell (it'll succeed)", "lower then wii U numbers" etc...
Of course anyone who was slightly skeptic or had reasonable doubts about it's potential shouldn't be counted, but those first pages are almost entirely wrong.
Annoying Old Party Man
Member
Yolo, just buy a case and a screen protector already
I got those already ;-)
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Not if you were here in 2008.
Nope nope NOPE! What you should do is eat that uncooked, unseasoned, unplucked black bird that we have set for you and the rest of the gang. It's a crow thread now, not a laugh-at-ourselves thread. So don't even...
Y'all just wanna feign laughter, while slowly nudging the plates away, but Ima sit by the table till the last feather is gone. The only thing you'll hear me say is; "Laugh and eat, bros... laugh and eat!"
Jonneh3003
Banned
Just finished Kamiko, it's short, cheap, charming and highly replayable. Get it GAF!
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Yeah I'll fucking bet you guys are. The launch had to be nail biting
llien
Member
Impressive. =)
I wasn't in that thread, although I would have been skeptical (despite having 2 3DSes in house for kids) and am still skeptical.
At least in my case, I do not have any plans to buy it, it is too expensive for what it is, it isn't worth it for a couple of games (for me) and I have better gadgets (both screen resolution and batter life) for media consumption.
Nope nope NOPE! What you should do is eat that uncooked, unseasoned, unplucked black bird that we have set for you and the rest of the gang. It's a crow thread now, not a laugh-at-ourselves thread. So don't even...
Y'all just wanna feign laughter, while slowly nudging the plates away, but Ima sit by the table till the last feather is gone. The only thing you'll hear me say is; "Laugh and eat, bros... laugh and eat!"
I already had lunch. Leave that crow for dinner. Bring me a bottle of red wine btw. I like Nappa Valley wine.
Skittzo0413
Member
They just posted a $0.9 billion profit for this year. I think they're perfectly happy remaining as they are.
They already went thirdparty, amusingly enough
LordRaptor
Member
I find it hard to believe Nintendos portolio resonates more with X1 and PS4 owners than, say, Capcom or Ubisofts portfolios do.
DarkConfidant
Member
This, plus they still have to implement their paid online plan. Plenty of time to see if it really has stamina.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidt...h-selling-out-in-hours-not-days/#125f81aee525
Eric Bright, Gamestop's Senior Director of Merchandising:
Eric Bright, Gamestop's Senior Director of Merchandising:
PSFan
Member
Was it though? Wasn't Iwata the one who said that their next system would not be a hybrid (and we were constantly reminded of it by Neoxon)? It seems more like when he passed, Nintendo changed everything he wanted to do.
That's basically the situation we know from the hunters' thread: Switches are being restocked, but by the time people are able to get to a store, sometimes all of them are already gone. Goes to show that the momentum is still there.
Skittzo0413
Member
It really goes to show you how important spacing out their releases over the year was, rather than dumping everything there on day 1. Demand will only go up during the leadups to MK8D and Splatoon 2.
I think we will see new OS features when the paid service launches.
You are getting defensive for nothing. The op is obviously talking about the people claiming DOA.
And_Gignac
Member
Hahaha. Dude why are you doing this to yourself.
Herb Alpert
Banned
yeah people saying "it's only because Zelda" don't realize the importance of MK8D.
Well advertised, ARMS can create some buzz. And Splatoon this summer will set the charts on fire. At least in Japan, don't know how it will sell in Europe or US.
I was going by what Miyamoto said in the Time interview:
http://time.com/4668908/nintendo-switch-miyamoto-interview/
Browser with reader support, Netflix, amazon, and vudu please Nintendo.
I'm surprised I have to bring this back long after the NX speculation threads were done.
This post goes through explaining how Iwata was trying to explain to investors what integrating the architecture of their software meant so that they wouldn't be confused by merging physical hardware. He never said there wouldn't be a hybrid.
Further along, that post also goes about the family of devices stuff etc.
Then in this post Iwata said this:
That definitely sounds like the Switch to me, a hybrid that was made to appeal to the handheld users in Japan and the stationary console users in the west.
Skittzo0413
Member
I think ARMS will sell fairly well but I don't think it will create the same type of hardware demand that MK8D and Splatoon 2 will. Maybe it'll be able to capitalize on the post-E3 buzz though.
xDUMPWEEDx
Banned
I didn't think the Switch was going to be a Wii U-like failure, but it certainly has exceeded my expectations in terms of sales. I will probably end up picking one up later this year once Mario releases and those sweet holiday bundles come out.
LegendofLex
Member
You'll have your answer in about a week.
Anecdotally, I've seen more advertisements for Mario Kart, Arms, and Splatoon than for Zelda.
Zelda may be the title that's driving sales, but it's not the only title Nintendo is using to drive interest.
OrbitalBeard
Member
I've been saying for awhile that we'll have a pretty good indication of Switch's mid-term success at the end of May. Possibly earlier depending on how well MK8D sells at launch.
LegendofLex
Member
For me, there are two questions:
1) As Nintendo increases shipments, will the system's sales climb with the shipments? If so, then it seems to be a sustainable hit.
2) As Nintendo releases new hit titles, will those titles have a strong attach rate against new system sales? If so, then they seem to have a sustainable software pipeline.
MK8D's launch should answer at least one of those two questions (I'm not sure how many systems Nintendo will ship for its launch).