MS definitely had a target price from the onset of this thing. It's been a constraint all along. I have a hard time believing they went into it targeting a 599 or even a 499 base price console. Even at a premium, it seems like that would be dead in the market (see the original launch of the Xbox One or the flack Sony got during the launch of the PS3, both of which were even NEW generations, which this isn't). The only thing that has me hesitant is that they may look to the Elite controller as a reference point, where folks (including me) were willing to pay 2.5x for the extra features. Scorpio doesn't really offer extra "features" though in the same sense as the Elite; it offers enhanced graphics.
I'm very much expecting two models, a base at $399 and a $499 version with some extra features (maybe an Elite controller, maybe just a larger HDD). Similar to the approach with the S version, I expect only the $499 version to be available at launch (August), with a 1-2 month delay for the base version (in time for the holidays). A higher price and/or later timing will both shock and disappoint me (and also would make no sense to announce at E3).
I'm very much expecting two models, a base at $399 and a $499 version with some extra features (maybe an Elite controller, maybe just a larger HDD). Similar to the approach with the S version, I expect only the $499 version to be available at launch (August), with a 1-2 month delay for the base version (in time for the holidays). A higher price and/or later timing will both shock and disappoint me (and also would make no sense to announce at E3).