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March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

K

kyser73

Member
[360] 135k
[3DS] 195k
[PS3] 130k
[PS4] 410k
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 440k

No pressure from getting first place last month or anything...
 
D

donny2112

Member
jvm said:
donny2112, do you think it is relevant to mention that March 2013 (3 March 2013 - 6 April 2013) included Easter while Easter happens in April in 2014? As you know, I've not always been swayed by the comments NPD makes about Easter having an effect, and I think any effect it might had previously was mostly on the low-end market (e.g. GBA, NDS, maybe PS2, in their respective late-gen eras).
Click to expand...

I think it does play some role if just in the sales/releases that try to be Easter gifts (Target's B2G1 sale last week, BB/etc. sales this week). Thought about it when posting the thread, but didn't recall when Easter was last year. Maybe not enough of a role to make people change hardware predictions. Software may be more impacted, especially on the kid-friendly side, though.

It's debatable whether such a low-end market exists now. The 3DS doesn't have the same cachet as Nintendo's previous handhelds and the PS3 and Xbox 360 won't have the kind of late-gen slow decline that the PS2 enjoyed.

jvm said:
I apologize that I can't really be a contributing member of sales-age anymore. I'll be around here and there, but war life has changed.
Click to expand...

Nothing to apologize for. Real life takes priority! :)
 
P

Putty

Member
PS4 308976
XB1 302542
PS3 Some units
360 A number of units
WII U A small amount of units
3DS A canny few units
 
A

AniHawk

Member
[XB1] 280K
[PS4] 270K
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 70K
[360] 60K
[WIU] 60K

i think i'm being fairly optimistic here. sales generally go down from february to march. ps4 had infamous, 3ds had yoshi, and xb1 had titanfall and that's what i think will drive sales for those. wii u has fuck all until mario kart and 360 and ps3 are just kinda you know, taking up space too.
 
P

Pound_lb003

Member
quetz67 said:
PS4 550K
XB1 450K
3DS 180K
360 110K
PS3 110K
WIU 60K
Click to expand...

God, I hope that's the month we get, look at those half mil guesses!

I can't help but think we'd have heard updated figures from Microsoft if it casually sold 450K in March, they'd be at 5 mil by now.
 
D

Dire

Member
Pound_lb003 said:
God, I hope that's the month we get, look at those half mil guesses!

I can't help but think we'd have heard updated figures from Microsoft if it casually sold 450K in March, they'd be at 5 mil by now.
Click to expand...

Kind of amazing to consider what the guesses would have looked like if you asked people in February reminding them that it's a 5 week tracking period, Titanfall/Infamous/Dark Souls 2 release and PS4 supply issues become a thing of the past. Wonder what the internal estimates at Microsoft/Sony were during that period.
 
H

Hindl

Member
I'm a little surprised to see these Wii U numbers. There are some more in line with stuff the 50-65K but the average looks to be around 85-95k. Any reason people are guessing these higher numbers, especially with no new releases?
 
E

Elios83

Member
[PS4] 390k
[XB1] 400k
[3DS] 180k
[360] 130k
[PS3] 115k
[WIU] 80k

I expect PS4 and X1 to be really close. I gave the edge to X1 because it seems the most likely outcome but I wouldn't be shocked if the opposite happened.
 
D

DoubleTake

Member
[360] 125K
[3DS] 165K
[PS3] 118K
[PS4] 365K
[WIU] 100K
[XB1] 360K

First time trying my hand at this. Really the PS4 and Xbox numbers are wild guesses, have no idea how March will turn out because of the crazy bundles and stock replenishment Xbox and Playstation had respectively.
 
L

Lexxism

Member
Hindl said:
I'm a little surprised to see these Wii U numbers. There are some more in line with stuff the 50-65K but the average looks to be around 85-95k. Any reason people are guessing these higher numbers, especially with no new releases?
Click to expand...

March is a 5-week period compare last February hence why people were giving a higher numbers.
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
[PS4]435 K
[XBO] 390 K
[WiiU] 92 K

TitanFall's impact is being overestimated IMHO. Most of the people who wanted it purchased a One at launch or in December, February saw a massive bump for the system in anticipation. There's been no hard numbers given yet, even something to give a rough idea ("hundreds of thousands" isn't good enough), and a 100K increase over last month would be great anyway.

Also PS4 supply was much better in March and demand has only lowered a little bit in the U.S since launch (it' probably higher than the normal average, actually).
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Just finalized my own predictions and thought I'd bump my post for those curious on time remaining

SwiftDeath said:
For reference

Time left to Post and/or Edit NPD Predictions

t1397520000z1.png


Time left to NPD releases approximately (PR starts within an hour or two after this)

t1397764800z1.png
Click to expand...
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Lexxus said:
March is a 5-week period compare last February hence why people were giving a higher numbers.
Click to expand...
Since this seems to be coming up a bit...

Code: 
(000s)		NDS	PSP	X360	PS3	WII	3DS	PSV	WIU

2009	[B]Feb	590	200	390	275	755	[/B]		
	Mar	560	170	330	220	601			
2010	Feb	615	[B]135	420	360[/B]	400			
	Mar	[B]700[/B]	120	340	315	[B]560[/B]			
2011	Feb	460	80	[B]535	405	455[/B]			
	Mar	460	[B]190[/B]	435	365	290			
2012	[B]Feb	135		425	350	230	260[/B]		
	Mar	105		370	335	175	225		
2013	Feb	[B]100		300	265	100	190	40[/B]	65
	Mar	85		260	210	90	230	35	65
To nearest 5K, bolded the higher.
In recent history, the 5-week month hasn't been sufficient to elevate March sales above February sales.

(If any of the numbers are egregiously wrong please correct.)
 
L

LowEndTorque

Member
Just one prediction: that X1 will beat PS4 by roughly 30-40K units and that Sony are saving their announcement that they passed 7 Million and are the next gen market leader for NPD to shift attention away from X1 winning and towards 7M.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Lexxus said:
March is a 5-week period compare last February hence why people were giving a higher numbers.
Click to expand...

people don't get that for whatever reason, even with the extra week, that february is traditionally a bigger month than march, although it seems mostly nintendo systems buck that trend.

feb 08
PlayStation 2 350K
PlayStation 3 280K
PlayStation Portable 240K
Xbox 360 250K
Nintendo DS 585K
Wii 430K

march 08
PlayStation 2 215K
PlayStation 3 255K
PlayStation Portable 295K
Xbox 360 260K
Nintendo DS 700K
Wii 720K

feb 09
PlayStation 2 130K
PlayStation 3 275K
PSP 200K
Xbox 360 390K
Wii 750K
Nintendo DS 585K

march 09
PlayStation 2 110K
PlayStation 3 220K
PSP 170K
Xbox 360 330K
Wii 600K
Nintendo DS 560K

feb 10
PlayStation 2 101K
PlayStation 3 360K
PSP 133K
Xbox 360 422K
Wii 397K
Nintendo DS 613K

march 10
PlayStation 2 118K
PlayStation 3 313K
PSP 119K
Xbox 360 338K
Wii 557K
Nintendo DS 700K

feb 11
ps3 400k
360 535k
wii 455k
ds 455k

march 11
ps3 365k
360 433k
wii 290k
ds 460k
3ds 400k

feb 12
ps3 360k
360 425k
wii 225k
3ds 260k
vita 225k

march 12
ps3 335k
360 370k
wii 175k
3ds 225k
vita 205k

feb 13
ps3 260k
360 300k
wii u 65k
3ds 190k
vita 38k

march 13
ps3 210k
360 260k
wii u 65k
3ds 230k
vita 33k
 
N

N.Domixis

Banned
LowEndTorque said:
Just one prediction: that X1 will beat PS4 by roughly 30-40K units and that Sony are saving their announcement that they passed 7 Million and are the next gen market leader for NPD to shift attention away from X1 winning and towards 7M.
Click to expand...

Thats probably why they haven't said anything. Its a back up pr in case they lose this NPD. They will announce like 7.4million or at least 7 million.
 
P

pestul

Member
[360] 135K
[3DS] 168K
[PS3] 95K
[PS4] 365K
[WIU] 87K
[XB1] 445K



This is my first go at this ever.. I have no idea what I'm doing. Probably giving too much for game bumps.
 
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