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March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Aquamarine
Member
April 17th. Always check the OP for the release dates as they shift depending on the month. NPD isn't always a 4-week reporting period.
ethomaz
Banned
1 million in a 2.5 million userbase? Half of owners got Titanfall in US? I don't think so.
theprodigy
Member
presumably 1 million worldwide, which is definitely possible (quite likely I'd say, given the bundles)
Will that be counted in the NPD though? I thought bundles weren't...
Aquamarine
Member
Everything is tracked in NPD.
NPD's Top 10 that it reports to us doesn't count software that's bundled in hardware as part of the Top 10 calculation.
But I have no doubt that Microsoft would calculate Titanfall bundle sales in with the rest of the software sales reporting. Remember, their PR wants the absolute highest sales numbers to brag about.
ethomaz
Banned
But he is talking about NPD PR... so US only.
WW I'm sure Titanfall sold more than 1 million already.
ethomaz
Banned
Just a question.... the free game with bundle are not counted for the TOP10 like the TF bundle in US but the Gamestop's inFAMOUS bundle that you pay the price of the two (console + game) is?
Edit - Guys sorry... I did dup post
No i am talking WW, just because its a NPD does not make every single discussion and number NPD only
There is no way they sold 1 million TFs in US alone, i dont believe that either. But WW, sure. And most importantly they can use that in a PR when they declare their NPD victory this month
Aquamarine
Member
Just a question.... the free game with bundle are not counted for the TOP10 like the TF bundle in US but the Gamestop's inFAMOUS bundle that you pay the price of the two (console + game) is?
Edit - Guys sorry... I did dup post
I believe it's only official Manufacturer bundles that are not counted. You know, the ones with the distinct boxes where the game is packed into the box.
Retailer exclusive bundles like GameStop's bundle gives you the normal hardware but packages the game separately. I believe those are counted.
NavyPharaoh
Member
Just a question.... the free game with bundle are not counted for the TOP10 like the TF bundle in US but the Gamestop's inFAMOUS bundle that you pay the price of the two (console + game) is?
Edit - Guys sorry... I did dup post
Yes only because gamestop's bundle isn't a pack in bundle from the manufacturer. In other words it doesn't have its own SKU. The ps4 & game ring up separately, not the case with titanfall bundle
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
So in theory, the titanfall position could actually be lower on the top ten than total sales suggest?
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes. Say 300k TF XB1 bundles are sold in March in the US, then what's shown on NPD is based on TF sales minus 300k
Aquamarine
Member
NPD receives raw POS information from retailers like Wal-Mart and GameStop every month. That's all they get.
If a special GameStop pack-in bundle rings up as two separate items (normal PS4 SKU and normal Infamous: Second Son SKU) then NPD has no way to determine that Second Son was sold as part of a bundle.
However, if the specially-manufactured Titanfall Xbox One combined bundle with the fancy packaging sells, NPD can recognize that it was a distinct bundle sale.
ethomaz
Banned
Ohhhhh that's give chance to the TOP10 shows inFAMOUS ahead Titanfall but the combined sales be lower.
I can smell some meltdowns if that happen.
ethomaz
Banned
Tomorrow night.
SwiftDeath
Member
While that would be hilarious to see considering the reactions people are bound to have, I'm not sure that will be the case
Various Artists
Banned
Tomorrow, around 630ish Eastern Time I believe.
Chobel
Member
.Time left to NPD releases approximately (PR starts within an hour or two after this)
ethomaz
Banned
Well inFAMOUS 2 did 400k in the launch NPD... so I expect some close number because Sony announced fastest selling inFAMOUS game todate.
I need to account that I2 had 4 weeks of sales vs 3 weeks of sales for I:SS... even so I expect over 400k.
Titanfall will need over 700k to win NPD.
Maybe interesting for some of you: https://twitter.com/iansherr/status/456434391175417856
SwiftDeath
Member
It's important to add though that Top10 NPD chart is not an individual chart and thus TF will gain a boost from whatever small amount of PC Physical sales it garners.
As I've mentioned before I think ISS will do at least 450K - 500K in NPD tracking [so not counting digital] but I have no idea on TF. I really have a hard time predicting it
Assuming it has a 1 in 4 attach rate like the UK, we're talking something like (2220K/4) = 555K, assuming all XB1 sold in March were either TF bundles and not counted towards the total or regular XB1's and the buyer wasn't interested in TF
If it was a 1 in 3 attach rate then you're talking 733K for NPD [although that's assuming 100% physical purchases which is incorrect]. Again assuming those who purchased an XB1 in March and were interested in TF, bought the TF bundle
That's both surprising and unsurprising. There were some of the year's biggest releases in TF, Infamous, DSII etc. but overall a lesser amount of titles
Worrisome though as publishers seem even more risk averse than ever before
theprodigy
Member
you have to count Xbox One sales in March in that LTD total though, so using a really safe level of 300k XB1 sales this month, that's 2520K/4=630K with a 1 in 4 attach rate
ethomaz
Banned
That is what I'm guessing....
Remove the bundles... ~330k for Xbone + ~100k for PC... ~450k in the TOP10 that can be lower than inFAMOUS.
People will try to explain that the bundles are not counted but the buzz will be done.
SwiftDeath
Member
Eh why though? I'm talking about what sales of TF will be counted towards its pole postiion in the Top10 and assuming that XB1 buyers in March either buy the TF bundle if they're interested in TF or buy the regular forza bundle if they're not interested in TF, then there is little reason to inlcude March's XB1 sales into the install base for how many TF sales there will be in regards to NPD's Top10
If my ramblings made any sense at all lol
NPD only counts retail Physical PC copies of games sold. Do you really think that will be 100k?
AstroNut325
Member
Anyone know why NPD has a monopoly on reporting sales data? Is there no other entity that tracks sales?
ethomaz
Banned
No. I'm just being generous
IIRC, there was a competitor in the US that tracked and released sales charts regularly, many years ago (PC Data, I think they were called). NPD bought them and stopped their regular release of data.
SwiftDeath
Member
lol NPD is totally not a monopoly...
AstroNut325
Member
Any idea on what it takes to start one? Not interested in sales of refrigerators. Just games and related hardware. Probably requires contracts with the big retailers?
Aquamarine
Member
First of all you have to consider the logistics. Grabbing aggregate POS reports from a wide array of retailers, resellers, and distributors is an incredible feat that only came about with NPD's decades of experience working with retail.
A non-comprehensive list of electronics retailers that NPD works with:
4Sure.com, AAFES, AAFES.com, ABC Warehouse, ABC Warehouse.com, Abt Electronics, Abt Electronics.com, Amazon.com, American TV, AmericanTV.com, Apple, Apple.com, AT&T, Beach Camera.com, Bernie's8, Best Buy, Best Buy.com, Bjorn's, BJ's Wholesale, Blockbuster Video, Bloomingdale's, Bob & Ron's Worldwide Stereo, Bob & Ron's Worldwide Stereo.com, Boscov's, Boscovs.com, BrandsMart, BrandsMart.com, Calumet.com, Circuit City.com 1, CompUSA.com, CompUSA/Tiger Direct4, Conns Appliance, Conns Appliance.com, Cowboy Maloney's, Crutchfield, Crutchfield.com, Dell.com, Dillard's, Dollar General, Duckwall Alco, Dunham's Sports, eCost.com, Electronics Expo, Electronics Expo.com, Electronics Express, Electronics Express.com, Family Dollar Stores, Flanner's, Fred Meyer, GameStop, GameStop.com, Grupo Famsa, Hastings, hhgregg, hhgregg.com, Home Shopping Network, Home Shopping Network.com, Hunts Photo & Video.com, Huppins, JCPenney Company, JCPenney.com, Ken Crane's10, Kmart, Kmart.com, Kohl's, Kohl's.com, Curacao, Curacao.com, Listen Up, Listen Up.com, MacMall18, MacMall.com18 , Macy's, Macy's.com, Magnolia Hi-Fi, Marines Commissary Exchange, Meijer, Meijer.com, Myer Emco9, National Camera Exchange.com, Navy Exchange, NavyExchange.com, Nebraska Furniture Mart, NewEgg.com, Office Depot, Office Depot.com, OfficeMax, OfficeMax.com, OneCall.com, OnSale/eCOST.com17, Ovation Audio/Video Specialists14, Overstock.com, P.C. Richard & Son, P.C. Richard & Son.com, Pamida, Panasonic.com, Paradyme, Paul's TV, Paul's TV.com, PC Connection Express, Queen City Appliance, QVC, QVC.com, R.C. Willey, R.C. Willey.com, RadioShack, RadioShack.com, Rakuten.com, Reliable.com, Roku.com, Sam's Club, SamsClub.com, Sears, Sears.com, Shopko, Shopko.com, Sixth Avenue Electronics14, Sixth Avenue Electronics.com14, Sprint Store, Staples Third Party Direct, Staples USR, Staples.com, T-Mobile, T-Mobile.com. Target, Target.com, Tech Depot.com, Tekserve, Tekserve.com, The Bon Ton, TigerDirect.com, Toys R Us, Toys R Us.com, Ultimate Electronics12, Vann's, Vann's.com, Verizon, Verizon.com, Video Only, Walgreens, Walmart, Walmart.com
And, there is just the fact that we have a natural monopoly on our hands. If a competitor were to spring up, it wouldn't NEARLY have the same level of comprehensiveness as NPD, and everyone who matters (Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, video game publishers, video game retailers) would just continue to subscribe to NPD.
I know that Nintendo (for example) has considered TRST NPD data accurate since 1993...to suddenly change their data sources after 21 years is just something that companies are unwilling to do.
You have GfK monopolizing Europe sales data for the same reason.
Dragonborn
Member
But does it really matter that it's bundled? TF is thrown in for free and it received price cuts, counting the bundle would just in flat sales as someone looking to buy an X1 would likely get the bundle even if they didn't want TF
anexanhume
Member
Looking at that, I'd be interested in the distributor report for hardware.
ethomaz
Banned
To be fair it doesn't matter at all... sales are sales even if it give free.
But if the NPD TOP ranking shows inFAMOUS over Titanfall then GAF will go down for sure.
HI. BILLY MAYS HERE
Banned
It is save to assume if infamous beats Titanfall and ps4 beats xbox GAF will explode tomorrow?
Latvian Hitman
Member
SwiftDeath
Member
TrojanBlade
Member
So looks like PS4 has not reached 7 mil figure? Otherwise Sony would have announced by now right? Or do they have to wait for NPD first to make an announcement?
SwiftDeath
Member
Eh Both Sony and MS could be saving PR announcements for tomorrow night or potentially for earnings reports [I think MS has one soonish?]
Aquamarine
Member
March NPD Release - April 17th
Microsoft Q3 Earnings - April 24th
Nintendo Q4 Earnings - May 7th
Sony Q4 Earnings - May 14th
April NPD Release - May 15th
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
They will be well past 7m now. Still there are people who don't think TF reached a million because they never bragged about it.
SwiftDeath
Member
Ooh thanks Aqua
Saving this post for future reference.
Aqua, you think Sony might be saving WW PS4 numbers for their Q4 earnings then or is that too long a wait since they'll likely update it again at E3?
ethomaz
Banned
They will share news sales state at Earnings next month.
JohnnyFootball
GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
I agree with this. There is no way MS would've let an opportunity to provide positive PR about the Xbone pass.