Welfare
Member
It can get more accurate than that, so we should wait for a leak.
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July 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
It can get more accurate than that, so we should wait for a leak.
I remember a number somewhere north of 100K, but IIRC, it wasn't the most accurate estimation. Either way, I'm off by at least 10K for the 3DS.
Also, when are we getting the results?
Darth Smurf X
Member
I'm going to requote myself, since I'm even more confident in my November prediction now after the Star Wars bundle announcement.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Still no rankings, what is the hold up?
Welfare
Member
Accurate 3DS numbers have not been leaked.
SupperCrunch
Member
Are you assuming MS will cut the price of the XB1 to $299 or less for the base model?
Just got Wedbush predictions today, and I've been mostly offline on my computer that does the rankings over the weekend.
I'm willing to go with your 3DS prediction of 105K, if you're still good on it. We've been doing well to have any kind of public type numbers for the systems, so it doesn't have to be perfect to work. We have a % from Nintendo, so that's pretty good, I think.
Edit:
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jul-2015
1. PS4 - 229K
2. XB1 - 181K
3. 3DS - 85K
4. WIU - 47K
Welfare
Member
105k was got from using 153k for February 2014 and using 1.35x. Going on the safer side I went with the prediction archives 155k. A 1.34x increase would mean July was 99k and 1.345x increase would be 104k.
I personally went with 104k
freefornow
Member
In the apparent absence of any other figures, the % from Nintendo is more than sufficient.
And boy, did I low ball the WiiU numbers this month. What was I thinking!?
Edit: Welfare's rationale is good too. Donny makes a call?
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Okay cool. Just thought something was up cause you are always so fast with posting the rankings.
Man i just keep overestimating the WiiU.
Okay, cool. I went back to what was used in predictions, and I got basically the same thing. 34% is ~100K and 35% is ~108K. Going with 105K for predictions, then, since I like to do multiples of 5K, when there's not a clear cut value. Thanks!
NeoGAF Prediction Results - July 2015
Units
1. freefornow - 22,000
2. Hammer24 - 24,000
3. theprodigy - 27,000
4. CorporateClown - 30,000
4. Final Verdict - 30,000
6. Megadragon15 - 31,000
7. 5Twist - 32,000
7. madstarr12 - 32,000
9. Road - 33,000
10. NateDrake - 35,000
11. 1st Course - 36,000
11. BlackBuzzard - 36,000
11. Welfare - 36,000
14. jayu26 - 38,000
15. allan-bh - 39,000
16. GAF_Agg - 40,000
16. Maniel - 40,000
18. Elios83 - 42,000
18. Rymuth - 42,000
18. michaelius - 42,000
21. vinnygambini - 44,000
22. Javin98 - 45,000
23. Mister Megative - 46,000
23. Randolph Freelander - 46,000
25. ScatheZombie - 50,000
25. TheCarrotKiller - 50,000
27. aaronwt - 53,000
27. anexanhume - 53,000
29. Tratorn - 53,701
30. Bioshocker - 55,000
31. Crimson_Gold - 56,000
31. Pillville - 56,000
31. Sangetsu-II - 56,000
31. Untalkative_Bunny - 56,000
31. jjonez18 - 56,000
36. noobie - 57,000
37. donny2112 - 58,000
38. gtj1092 - 59,000
39. Elandyll - 60,000
39. Prototype Viktor - 60,000
41. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 62,000
41. Kill3r7 - 62,000
41. archnemesis - 62,000
41. madp0k - 62,000
41. slavesnyder - 62,000
46. B4s5C - 63,000
46. ZachzOOming - 63,000
48. Ombala - 64,000
48. shinra-bansho - 64,000
50. andy_lhc - 65,000
51. RexNovis - 68,000
51. Se_7_eN - 68,000
53. MasterSheen - 70,000
53. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 70,000
53. astrogamer - 70,000
56. Bruno MB - 71,000
57. Fat4all - 72,000
58. Primethius - 73,000
59. Zero-Crescent - 74,000
59. orochi91 - 74,000
61. skedar897 - 76,000
62. orfax - 77,000
63. KillerMan91 - 78,000
63. pitseleh - 78,000
65. ghost4soul - 79,000
65. robo - 79,000
67. mejin - 80,000
68. Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke - 82,000
69. Shin-chan - 86,000
69. Wynnebeck - 86,000
69. planetsmasherx1 - 86,000
72. harrisk954 - 87,000
73. daniel77733 - 89,000
74. Cornbread78 - 92,000
74. SupperCrunch - 92,000
76. Stanng243 - 94,000
77. Pachter - 98,000
78. tearsintherain - 99,000
79. Asd202 - 103,000
79. Jigorath - 103,000
79. Tsosie - 103,000
82. Darth Smurf X - 104,000
83. Chobel - 108,000
84. Jamix012 - 111,000
85. ninjabat - 114,000
86. eerik9000 - 116,000
87. Vena - 117,000
88. Aeqvitas - 118,000
88. watdaeff4 - 118,000
90. Apt101 - 130,000
91. IAmRandom31 - 132,000
92. Conduit - 142,000
93. Las7 - 156,000
94. Dedication Through Light - 161,000
95. BrianRoyale - 165,000
96. jroc74 - 167,000
97. viHuGi - 172,000
98. iBeleaf - 177,000
99. mikey1123 - 191,000
100. Grimgrillz - 210,000
101. florin3k3 - 238,000
102. Super_Cobra - 319,000
Points
Code:
July 2015 Overall 2015 Top (6/7)
01. freefornow 119.54 allan-bh 607.46
02. Hammer24 118.30 madp0k 595.32
03. theprodigy 115.47 freefornow 595.18
04. Final Verdict 111.31 donny2112 592.61
05. CorporateClown 109.78 Welfare 591.51
06. Megadragon15 107.72 shinra-bansho 581.09
07. 5Twist 107.27 Final Verdict 580.21
08. Road 105.08 theprodigy 578.02
09. jayu26 104.60 Road 577.43
10. madstarr12 103.60 michaelius 577.41
11. Maniel 102.75 Untalkative_Bunny 577.13
12. allan-bh 102.48 Chobel 574.53
13. Randolph Freelander 102.42 RexNovis 573.83
14. Welfare 102.15 vinnygambini 572.43
15. michaelius 101.95 archnemesis 572.36
16. Prototype Viktor 101.69 Javin98 571.62
17. donny2112 101.36 jayu26 570.96
18. vinnygambini 101.16 BlackBuzzard 570.17
19. Javin98 101.11 astrogamer 569.83
20. BlackBuzzard 101.06 Trust me, I'm a PhD 567.97
21. Mister Megative 100.95 Megadragon15 566.35
22. ScatheZombie 100.54 Sangetsu-II 563.35
23. Elios83 100.07 CorporateClown 562.47
24. Rymuth 100.07 doicare 559.54
25. 1st Course 100.00 Bruno MB 554.71
26. ZachzOOming 99.99 KillerMan91 554.60
27. gtj1092 99.70 1st Course 551.18
28. Primethius 99.46 Rymuth 551.13
29. Bioshocker 99.35 John Bender 550.93
30. Sangetsu-II 99.31 noobie 550.90
31. andy_lhc 99.26 Ombala 550.53
32. shinra-bansho 99.21 Tratorn 549.77
33. Kill3r7 99.13 Kill3r7 548.10
34. Tratorn 99.07 Crimson_Gold 544.19
35. NateDrake 99.06 slavesnyder 543.91
36. Elandyll 99.04 skedar897 542.34
37. madp0k 98.91 Darth Smurf X 541.60
38. Crimson_Gold 98.91 Pillville 541.50
39. Trust me, I'm a PhD 98.89 Asd202 541.05
40. archnemesis 98.84 Elandyll 540.35
41. Ombala 98.72 Jamix012 539.60
42. noobie 98.56 Prototype Viktor 536.23
43. MasterSheen 98.54 TheCarrotKiller 535.59
44. TheCarrotKiller 98.37 Elios83 534.62
45. anexanhume 97.81 pitseleh 534.60
46. Pillville 97.38 prag16 532.52
47. RexNovis 97.00 jjonez18 532.24
48. astrogamer 96.81 Zero-Crescent 528.77
49. jjonez18 96.62 aaronwt 524.96
50. Bruno MB 96.34 mejin 524.30Congratulations, freefornow!
Welfare
Member
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Yiisssss!
Vinny making a comeback, watch out! Top 10 here I come!
Vinny making a comeback, watch out! Top 10 here I come!
BlackBuzzard
Banned
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Damn it! I dropped the ball hard in this one
Congratulations freefornow, and as always thank you Donny for doing this!
Chobel
I will never doubt PS4/Xbox One again
(Today, 05:44 AM)
not too shabby for my first prediction
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Oooph. 53... well, still much better than my worst for the year, so things are still looking up for old optimism gaf^^ Thanks again for everything, Donny, and see everyone in two weeks^^
Edit: Wow, much better on the points side; 39^^
Edit: Wow, much better on the points side; 39^^
Sigh. That's what I get for trying to predict numbers while on the treadmill. I'll try again next month!
freefornow
Member
Wow, thought WiiU would keep me out of a top 10.
Thanks to Donny for continued effort. And thanks to all those who contribute with numbers/analysis/speculation etc.
Thanks to Donny for continued effort. And thanks to all those who contribute with numbers/analysis/speculation etc.
Ouch 47th for points. T_T
......... -_-
Clearly I need to step up my game.
We in this! I beat Rex im happy
Thanks for doing this as always Donny.
......... -_-
Clearly I need to step up my game.
Final Verdict
Member
Congrats!!
Yes, I did quite well this month! And I'm still in the top 20 for 2015 overall. Now August is gonna be tough. Also, this is one of the rare months where GAF Aggregate did surprisingly well. Anyway, congratulations freefornow and thanks donny for doing this!
Darth Smurf X
Member
Oh man... I lost to Microsoft VP Hunert Smoke?!?!?
I'll be in my office sobbing if anyone needs me today.
I'll be in my office sobbing if anyone needs me today.
CorporateClown
Member
oooh, best I've done in a while! Will my luck continue?
probably not
Final Verdict
Member
Nevermind
Thebeardofknowledge
Banned
wrong thread