• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?

Results are only viewable after voting.
Status
Not open for further replies.
G

GuitarGuruu

Member
JasonMCG said:
Funny story.

I was at GameStop earlier–was in line–and on one or the registers was a bright red flyer with the Switch logo on it and it said something like:

"We're sorry. We're not taking any more preorders for the Nintendo Switch at this time. You can still reserve peripherals, etc..."

Anyway, the kid ahead of me notices the flyer and then asks the employee if the Switch was "that new Nintendo handheld" to which the clerk answered, "It's their new console, yeah."

The kid then said (and I'm quoting), "But the Switch is the handheld version, right?"

The clerk explained it to him, but in short, it looks like there's already some confusion among consumers.
Click to expand...

I personally feel like they did a pretty good job explaining in depth how it works. Must just have been uninformed.
 
X

xxracerxx

Don't worry, I'll vouch for them.
Random question:

Will we be able to lay the dock down so the Switch fits in horizontally? My setup doesn't really have space for the dock as is.
 
O

OrbitalBeard

Member
JasonMCG said:
Funny story.

I was at GameStop earlier–was in line–and on one or the registers was a bright red flyer with the Switch logo on it and it said something like:

"We're sorry. We're not taking any more preorders for the Nintendo Switch at this time. You can still reserve peripherals, etc..."

Anyway, the kid ahead of me notices the flyer and then asks the employee if the Switch was "that new Nintendo handheld" to which the clerk answered, "It's their new console, yeah."

The kid then said (and I'm quoting), "But the Switch is the handheld version, right?"

The clerk explained it to him, but in short, it looks like there's already some confusion among consumers. I'm interested to see how Nintendo positions this, especially over the holidays.
Click to expand...

That's not even close to the level of confusion Wii U saw. I mean, the kid and the clerk were both correct in their understanding of the device, for starters.
 
V

viciouskillersquirrel

Member
I think the Switch will be an unqualified success, it and its sister systems selling somewhere between 3DS and Wii when all is said and done (in the order of 80 million systems).

It's expensive now, but it will sell like a portable before too long and has the backing of the Japanese gaming industry.
 
TLZ

TLZ

Banned
Dekuboy said:
MonHun(exclusive), Splatoon, Pokemon and DQ11 in this year and I think it will do really good in Japan.

Other than that, console is sold out everywhere (germany), but look at ebay and there are thousands of people who just resell it for the double of the price.

I say 500k-1mio launchday imho. And if they support it with the titles I said, then Lifetime sales will be 80mio.

EDIT: also shouldn´t gaf be happy as fuck? This is literally the vita successor (same launch price, it will probably get the niche japanese games, region free)
Click to expand...

You know not every gamer is a portable gamer, right?

Personally I'll wait for a price cut because to me this is nothing but a (great) portable no matter what anyone says. It's current state is of no value to me so I'm hoping by the end of the year it's cheaper with more games and bundles adding a better value to it.
 
C

Cheerilee

Member
PSFan said:
I wouldn't say that at all. You can't just add the sales of the 3DS and Wii U and say that's the target number. You have to take into account that a good majority of Wii U owners also own a 3DS. Probably multiple 3DS systems (I do).

Now with the Switch, those people will account for one hardware sale instead of multiple hardware sales.
Click to expand...

WiiU seems to have killed Nintendo's home console pillar, while 3DS put Nintendo's handheld pillar in jeopardy. Switch is a hybrid, and I think it's safe to say that Nintendo has duct-taped the remains of their home console pillar onto their handheld pillar in an attempt to save the handheld pillar. I don't think Nintendo could even hope to launch a 4DS (or whatever you want to call it) next year and try to survive in the same market as Switch. Switch is it. Switch is all we've got now.

This hybrid must add WiiU to 3DS at minimum in order to serve any sort of point. But the results likely won't be that simple. There's a chance that these home console pieces are going to weigh the Switch down and doom it (aka: at $300 it costs too much). Nintendo seems to be betting that the Switch is going to be worth more than the sum of it's parts. We'll just have to wait and see, but I'm calling 3DS+WiiU as the bar for failure. If the Switch only sells 3DS numbers then Nintendo's home consoles have died for nothing. As a hybrid carrying the legacy of Nintendo's home consoles it has to sell at least a little bit better than 3DS (and WiiU's 13 million is a suitably appropriate increase, although I'm sure Nintendo's hoping for at least a 20 million boost, to push handhelds up from 3DS back into GBA's range). The super-serious money-losing failure point for Switch is somewhere around the GameCube level, but that means seriously entertaining the notion that Switch could kill Nintendo's handheld pillar, which might be possible (likely even, according to this poll), but that's a whole new level of fail.
 
M

Movalpolos

Banned
Dekuboy said:
MonHun(exclusive), Splatoon, Pokemon and DQ11 in this year and I think it will do really good in Japan.

Other than that, console is sold out everywhere (germany), but look at ebay and there are thousands of people who just resell it for the double of the price.

I say 500k-1mio launchday imho. And if they support it with the titles I said, then Lifetime sales will be 80mio.

EDIT: also shouldn´t gaf be happy as fuck? This is literally the vita successor (same launch price, it will probably get the niche japanese games, region free)
Click to expand...

Vita doesn't have online paywall.
 
W

wildfire

Banned
GuitarGuruu said:
I personally feel like they did a pretty good job explaining in depth how it works. Must just have been uninformed.
Click to expand...


It's a kid. I would've done the same thing.

Additionally i did a poll on hoer people perceive this and a third of gaffers see it only as a hand held and believe nintendo shouldn't market it as both.
 
T

tiredheadcrab

Member
I am in the flop category. I think it will appeal to Nintendo fans, or atleast whats left of them. The system just isnt ready for launch and the internals and system OS really arent well thought out. I mean the system isnt doing voice chat naively on the console. I mean for fucks sake OG Xbox and PS2 did this in 2002!!! I dont see this getting near Xbox one sales let alone PS4.

Its funny, in some threads about Scalebound being canceled, people were actually talking about MS leaving the console biz and it would be just Sony and Nintendo. Sony would steam role Nintendo with any new hardware.
 
D

Derphoof

Member
jdmonmou said:
Yeah, I'm watching the NFL Playoffs and there's not a Nintendo Switch ad to be found. If Nintendo's market is for casuals how are they supposed to know about it if Nintendo doesn't properly market it?
Click to expand...

I don't think they have any ads out yet. Not surprising.

Super Bowl Ad would be good though.
 
U

Usobuko

Banned
The transition of Vita crowd to Switch with a new barrier that is paid online is one thing Nintendo has to overcome.

The 3ds did 22.2 millions in Japan alone while the Vita did 5.4. Would switch captured the combined market or do less than what 3ds did in Japan? Mobile is also another platform that is gaining momentum in Japan, they spend by far one of the highest if not the highest per capita on mobile games.

I do think Switch will hit 50 millions but unlike PS stealing Xbox lunches directly because of similar core audience, they have a lot of legwork to do.
 
Liberty4all

Liberty4all

Banned
Paid online is a mistake imho. It's the reason this gen I stuck with one main console (ps4) and a Wii u (free online). Last green I had all 3 consoles.

Im not paying multiple monthly subs.
 
B

Bowl0l

Member
53_20170116010923c2avjkg8.jpg
PdotMichael said:
Do people really want to bet that Switch will perform that well even in Japan.
Click to expand...
Do you have a translated version?
 
O

orthodoxy1095

Banned
I think the future of the Switch has to be at least somewhat brighter than the Wii U, but I was curious about that list of Switch partners...and of the game developers listed, only 9 are completely new to the Switch (notably, two of those are actually new companies that were created during the Wii U's lifetime: Tokyo RPG and Gametrust). The other 26 had at least some game on the Wii U, whether a VC game, a single port of a sports title (e.g. T2) or actual full-fledged support of the system during its lifetime.

fuMsy0s.jpg
Click to expand...
 
R

RichiRamjag

Member
I think Nintendo needs to get this thing padded with software ASAP to succeed, I'd like to see more indie stuff on there, but Nintendo doesn't seem great at courting companies.

Oh lord, please let them get overcooked and have the two joycons work separately.
 
M

MoonFrog

Member
orthodoxy1095 said:
I think the future of the Switch has to be at least somewhat brighter than the Wii U, but I was curious about that list of Switch partners...and of the game developers listed, only 9 are completely new to the Switch (notably, two of those are actually new companies that were created during the Wii U's lifetime: Tokyo RPG and Gametrust). The other 26 had at least some game on the Wii U, whether a VC game, a single port of a sports title (e.g. T2) or actual full-fledged support of the system during its lifetime.
Click to expand...
TBH it seemed way too wait and see for comfort at the conference, but that's coming from someone who wants to see Switch succeed, both because I want a stronger Nintendo and Japanese industry for my own sake and because I think that is good for gaming.

I feel Nintendo needed a head start on third party support for the Switch to do as well as it could and they don't seem to have accomplished that. Seems instead you have Japanese developers just seeing its potential and just getting on board and that's troublesome. Nintendo needs Japan to succeed unlike Sony or MS, unless some strange over performance, unlooked for, in the west occurs. (And Japan could really use Nintendo, with Sony unconcerned to make a console that fights for the future of that market). I hope it was just a clumsy conference; the problem is the fear conforms to mostly how Nintendo and third parties have been, especially lately.

Idk Nintendo should be strong on the device. It should have Pokemon. And it is Japan's preferred form factor. But it won't be doing what it could or what I really want from it unless it has a healthy, broad library and audience, particularly domestic, for Japanese games. I'm not thinking that's going to happen atm, which would be sad, because it really does have the unique opportunity to bring DS/PSP lineage and PS3 lineage development together on one device and allow for cross development with PS4, i.e. it makes it feasible to chase the west and Japan without going crazy like DQXI.
 
El_Cinefilo

El_Cinefilo

Member
I want it to succeed, and I want to get one (although I won't be buying one at launch), however I reckon it will fall somewhere between WiiU and Gamecube numbers, which I wouldn't call a success.

There aren't enough games announced for how close to launch it is. Especially console exclusive titles (not WiiU ports). The online seems a mess, did they really have to make the one NES/SNES game that comes with the subscription only available for that month? And it's overpriced and underpowered for how much it costs (and those accessory prices)

For me to feel sorted with everything with Switch I'd need to get this:

ScreenShot2017-01-16at15.01.03.png


Plus an SD card taking it over £500. Granted I wouldn't feel the need for the second joycons/pro controller day one. But I'd want to thet them sooner rather than later.

For the same price you can get this:

ScreenShot2017-01-16at15.04.04.png


I don't really see a situation where anyone other than the die hard Nintendo fans (of which there aren't enough anymore to make Switch a success) would choose Switch over the other cheaper, more powerful consoles.


Even as a current PS4 owner, prior to the reveal I thought Switch would be my easy first choice for a second console. As it stands a £200 xbox one S with its library, backwards compatibility and UHD Blu ray support seems the more appealing.

I hope I'm wrong and Switch is a runaway success but at the moment I can't see it happening.
 
P

Pachinko

Member
At launch ? Absolutely
Compared to the Wii U ? Yes
Compared to the 3DS? Eh ... it might do the same numbers if they release a smaller unit in a couple years for 100$ less than the forthcoming model.

I feel it's safe to say 20 million switches will sell and the. If they do make a smaller unit , another 20-25 million. By 2022 there will probably be a switch 2.
 
A

Arkeband

Banned
1-2-Switch not being a pack-in is still fucking hilarious to me.

It's the closest thing to make-believe I think a video game has ever been, surpassing Johann Sebastian Joust.

It's not even a video game, since you don't need the screen.

Nintendo... what are you doing.
 
B

Big Green Anus

Member
Since the Switch is combining both the consoles and handheld, I wish the games were not $59.99 console price comapred to the $39.99 3DS and Vita games. I wonder if that would be too much of an increase for people who game on handhelds
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Dammit. I voted for it to be on Wii U level, but I forgot to take into account that because it's also doubling as a handheld, that it would be pretty hard for even Nintendo to fuck that up. Doesn't mean I think it'll be selling gangbusters, but probably comfortably above GC levels.
 
D

Dalibor68

Banned
I think this will be an incredible flop. To what extent I'm not sure yet, but probably somewhere around Wii U numbers, at best a little bit better than that.

The machine is extremely underpowered. The software lineup is currently extremely weak. Third party support is pretty much already dead before it was even alive. The controls are another gimmick. The battery life is a joke, people play on their smartphones now (games for free or like 1-2€) and most people don't want to play hardcore games next to someone on a 20min busride. The whole premise of this thing is based on situations that don't really exist in reallife. And the price is the worst. I literally got a PS4Pro for 316€ 2 weeks after launch, borrowed/cheaply bought used GOTY-level games that already exist and now a Switch costs 330€ on european amazon without any games. The minigame collection not being part of that is like the ultimate straw of disrespect.

Of course the big nintendo fans will still buy it and I wish them a lot of fun with the machines and nintendo IPs, but in the general market it will be very disappointing.
 
M

moltonasty

Member
It depends on a few factors, but let's be real here. if they announce an HD fully featured Pokémon game you can play on the go and on your TV the Switch will be a megaton hit

Plus a price drop and deluxe ports of Wii U games that people missed out on. It's got a chance to be huge
 
L

liquidtmd

Banned
moltonasty said:
It depends on a few factors, but let's be real here. if they announce an HD fully featured Pokémon game you can play on the go and on your TV the Switch will be a megaton hit
Click to expand...

I hear you but in fairness people have been saying this about Pokémon and mainline Nintendo consoles since the N64.

'If Nintendo chose to release a fully featured Pokémon game on X, boy the console war would be over'

And yet here were are. I do think decent ports of the most recent ones will hit and be successful though, don't get me wrong.
 
I

Izayoi

Banned
moltonasty said:
It depends on a few factors, but let's be real here. if they announce an HD fully featured Pokémon game you can play on the go and on your TV the Switch will be a megaton hit

Plus a price drop and deluxe ports of Wii U games that people missed out on. It's got a chance to be huge
Click to expand...
No, no. In this thread we conveniently ignore huge mobile franchises like Pokemon and Monster Hunter so that we can support our "doomed" narrative.

Get it right!
 
D

Deleted member 752119

Unconfirmed Member
Izayoi said:
No, no. In this thread we conveniently ignore huge mobile franchises like Pokemon and Monster Hunter so that we can support our "doomed" narrative.

Get it right!
Click to expand...

They could be huge. Only time will tell how they do on a $300 hybrid though as they (especially Pokemon) got huge on sub $200 portables. Even 3DS sold like shit until it got the big price drop to $180--but didn't get a new Pokemon before then, obviously, to see if that would have moved $250 units.
 
jts

jts

...hate me...
The thing with portables is that they can spread from word of mouth much faster than a home console.

Nintendo seems to have loads of wiggle room for revisions and price drops and time will work massively in their favour towards that as well.

When this gets to the kid-friendly price, gets Pokémon and gets inside schools. I mean. I will not bet against a Nintendo portable, whether it also plays real Zelda or not.
 
F

flkraven

Member
Here's my prediction of how everything will go down with the Switch:

-Preorders will sell out
-It will be difficult to find for a month or two
-Every sales thread on here for the first 2 months will inevitably include snarky people posting some variation of "But I thought Nintendo was doomed?" in the same vein as those that post "but I thought console gaming was dead" in NPD threads during the first year of PS4/XB1.
-It will get some decent play on mainstream media (ie. Today show, etc), but the gaming press will largely be 'ho-hum' on it.
-Once the Nintendo hardcores get their console, sales will slow down.
-Lack of games means lack of news
-No more mainstream media since it isn't 'new'
-Pay online begins, and most multiplayer games (like the 3 that will be out) will be barren wastelands with low populations.
-Holiday 2017 rolls around. It's decent but much more in line with first year gamecube/wii u holidays. Behind the PS4, and 3rd place in NPD.

At this point, if there isn't a major shift it's all downhill. Either a massive price drop, unprecedented influx of first party games or a huge wave of third party support are the only things that possibly save it.

-Sales stagnate in 2018
-Holiday 2018 it looks much more like the Wii U and the same discussions start popping up every where (ie. Should Nintendo go 3rd party? etc etc)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Poll
Betting time: Do you think the Switch 2 will be a success?
Social Opinion 2 3
118
5K
Sethbacca replied
  • Poll
Will Switch 2 continue Switch's success?
Poll 2
57
3K
Dr. Wilkinson replied
  • Poll
PlayStation will release 6 Live Service games by March 2025. How many will be successful?
2 3
148
6K
Xyphie replied
The Switch's Success completely vindicates the Wii's Legacy
Opinion 2 3 4
174
9K
Celine replied
Is there an easy way to dump my Switch games to PC?
Platform
30
6K
KXVXII9X replied
Top Bottom