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[ricardo_sousa11]

Most of you guys are contradicting yourselves.

You're saying it has a great launch titles (Zelda specifically), but then you say it will sell like crayz because of the kids, and ability to play with friends. I dont know if you know many kids, I have a 13 year old brother and know some of his friends, most of them dont know what Zelda is, and think Mario is for babies. Even if you're talking about younger kids, they still dont care about Zelda because they never played it nor heard of it.

This console isnt really competing with the PS4/One, but rather the mobile phones/tables, and since everyone already has a mobile phone, and games cost 1-5$ on average, this is much more expensive to buy/maintain.

Most casual gamers I know, dont even know Nintendo is releasing a new console, those who do know, dont care about it. The sucess of this thing is highly unlikely, and most of its sales will come from a Nintendo fanbase that want a nostalgia kick from the old classics.

 

[jts]

Failure is prett much guaranteed IMO. Wii U level of success. I'm basing this on the line up, no 3rd party support, price, their online system.

You don’t even know the online system. It will be new and on beta for a while, so it has none to do with previous consoles.

 

[Alienous]

I do think the portability is the crux. If that appeals to enough people then games like Minecraft will become major system sellers.

However, as a home console, I think it's in a worse situation to the Wii U. The Nintendo exclusives will appeal to the same audience (an older audience than I think Nintendo are courting - children don't place the same value on Mario and Zelda as IP that adults do), but the third-party support will be even more lacking.

 

[Smether]

Depends on the definition of success. Wii U was around 13 million units I believe. So if it does 15 million (10% more,) we could say it was a success. But I think the bigger issue will be where do they fit in to the market. Kids we know will love it. But beyond that? Aside from us enthusiasts that have attachments to Mario and Zelda, what is going to motivate the average consumer to drop $300 when PS4/XB1 offer so much more value? Seems like a long shot.

 

[Polygonal_Sprite]

So many people are ignoring it's potential 10-20 million sales in Japan. Switch will have Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon 2, Mario and probably Pokemon Stars all inside it's first ten months in Japan alongside other Japanese focused third part games. Saying Switch will sell less than Wii U sounds like trolling to me.

 

[Bowl0l]

Why they lost good will? Besides the bad sales they still supported the machine with good first party content, different like that company that abandoned the Vita. lmao

I think most people see games without caring if it's Nintendo's or from anyone else. There might be games but they are now mostly $60 games instead of $40.
The 3ds crowd might think that NoA increased their game prices by 50%. It's like Sony trying to sell a $599 PS3 except that hardware can go down in price but game prices will forever be stuck at $60.

 

[jts]

Depends on the definition of success. Wii U was around 13 million units I believe. So if it does 15 million (10% more,) we could say it was a success. But I think the bigger issue will be where do they fit in to the market. Kids we know will love it. But beyond that? Aside from us enthusiasts that have attachments to Mario and Zelda, what is going to motivate the average consumer to drop $300 when PS4/XB1 offer so much more value? Seems like a long shot.

I think that the average consumer that wants a PS4/XB1 already has one. They’ve been out for years. There’s a market within the PS4/XB1 users to sell the Switch to, as well. It does things that the PS4/XB1 can’t.

I have owned a PS4 since 2014, have no interest in the Pro, want something new so I have a Switch preordered.

Not that uncommon for people to have 2 consoles in the household, and PS4+XB1 are more overlapping than Switch + one of them.

I mean does anyone even remember the coined term “Wii60”?

 

[HeartlessNobody213]

After thinking about it more, I think it will sell at most 40 million. I think it being not as portable as a 3DS will hinder it. No major 3rd party support is basically a given at this point. I do think games like Pokemon, Monster Hunter and Yo-Kai Watch are what will help sales the most. The more console focused games are what I think will disappoint or outright bomb sales wise. So it will sell better than Wii U but not as well as the 3DS because of less portability and the shrinking handheld market.

 

[Pureauthor]

Depends on the definition of success. Wii U was around 13 million units I believe. So if it does 15 million (10% more,) we could say it was a success. But I think the bigger issue will be where do they fit in to the market. Kids we know will love it. But beyond that? Aside from us enthusiasts that have attachments to Mario and Zelda, what is going to motivate the average consumer to drop $300 when PS4/XB1 offer so much more value? Seems like a long shot.

If they killed their 3DS market to get an extra 2 million console sales that would be a colossal failure.

 

[freeofgreed]

They already confirmed that there's no Streetpass on the Switch. So that casts doubt on Pokemon and Yo-Kai which are by no means confirmed at all for the system.

lol Pokemon and Yokai watch will definitly hit the switch, what is this? And what does streetpass have to do with it? GB, GBC, GBA, and DS didn't have street pass either but had pokemon.

The PS4 and XBOX are it's competition as well as mobile. It's being marketed as a home console that you can use on the go, not the other way around. Plus, when I go to a games shop the PS4, XO and Switch will be sold in the same space. To say it has no competition is ludicrous, even more so if you consider tablets and phones.

It's being marketed that way but I don't think it'll be perceived that way. I predict as time goes on most people will percieve it more as a handheld then as a console. The console elements seem like an afterthought anyways. And yes tablets/phones are and will always be competition but I was talking mainly in terms of deticated gaming devices.

 

[Myoclonic Jerk]

I think that the average consumer that wants a PS4/XB1 already has one. They’ve been out for years. There’s a market within the PS4/XB1 users to sell the Switch to, as well. It does things that the PS4/XB1 can’t.

I have owned a PS4 since 2014, have no interest in the Pro, want something new so I have a Switch preordered.

Not that uncommon for people to have 2 consoles in the household, and PS4+XB1 are more overlapping than Switch + one of them.

I mean does anyone even remember the coined term “Wii60”?

I think Nintendo has very well established themselves as the "second console" to have with Wii, but they butchered it with the Wii U for one reason or another

The Switch, I presume, would fit better in that category.

I'm just hoping that they don't abandon the couch multi-player that Nintendo is known for

 

[elrohir]

It must be 7 years since I posted something here but Switch makes me want to appear here again.

I consider myself as something between casual and core gamer, grew up with the NES and the gameboy and played since then mainly Nintendo consoles. I do admit Sony and Microsoft release great consoles too, but a console without Zelda is no console for me. So yes, I'm a Nintendo fanboy. Which...is frustrating since Wii times. I don"t care that much about hardware specs, resolution and framerate. I care about gameplay, game design and art direction. So it was really painful to see how many 3rd parties just threw cheap spin-off software (remember Soul Calibur Legends?) on the market, which sold poorly because of its poor quality, and then stopped developing because they didn't make any money. Since then I am hoping and kinda begging for a release of games on Nintendo systems, that formerly were Sony-exclusive and then made it to Xbox.

I think the Switch will be a success, BUT Nintendo has to be faster with developing games. So far, the line-up is a bit underwhelming. And they have to make sure they get franchises back like Resident Evil, Final Fantasy or Soul Calibur.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I think Nintendo has very well established themselves as the "second console" to have with Wii, but they butchered it with the Wii U for one reason or another

The Switch, I presume, would fit better in that category.

I'm just hoping that they don't abandon the couch multi-player that Nintendo is known for

Controller pricing definitely hurt the appeal of couch coop.

 

[Wyndstryker]

Better than the wii u for sure. Messaging is coming across way better.

 

[Nerazar]

Controller pricing definitely hurt the appeal of couch coop.

Why? You get 2 out of the box. And if you want a second core gamer controller, you just pay around the same prize as with the PS4 or the XBO ones.

A 4-player set is always expensive. I didn't go that way with the Wii either.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Why? You get 2 out of the box. And if you want a second core gamer controller, you just pay around the same prize as with the PS4 or the XBO ones.

A 4-player set is always expensive. I didn't go that way with the Wii either.

Few are going to want to play games with those tiny joycons IMO. Especially anyone that doesn't have Trump-sized hands.

And yeah, it's not that much more expensive than ps1/X1 controllers were at launch, but those consoles also have hardly any local mp games.

If Nintendo wanted local MP to be a big selling point, especially to the casual crowd that's most of who is interested in that stuff as the core gamers are mostly playing online, they needed to keep the cost of entry down. A $300 console with $80 joycons pairs and $70 pro controller isn't very impulse purchase friendly to the party game crowd wanting to play 4 player Mario Kart, Mario Party etc.

I couldn't care less personally as I have zero use for local MP. Nintnedo's approach with the his is just odd. They're trying to appeal to too many gaming market segments which just doesn't work as it's coming off as jack of all trades, but master of none.

Overpriced and underpowered as a console.

Bulky and poor battery life as a portable.

Wiimote like motion controllers in a systems where the console and controllers are priced too high for the Wii Sports crowd.

Paid online when the casuals/lapsed gamers they're trying to bring back likely don't play online enough to pay for it and core gamers already paying for PS+ and/or Gold are likely to be reluctant to pay for another service on their second or third platform that they play much less than their main.

It's just unclear who the console is for other than Nintendo diehards like myself who just put up with their hardware and shitty practices to play Zelda et al.

 

[PdotMichael]

Do people really want to bet that Switch will perform that well even in Japan.

 

[LordRaptor]

Do people really want to bet that Switch will perform that well even in Japan.

I don't know how much you know about Fanboys (I'm an expert) but Sniper Elite being more popular in Japan than Splatoon is a huge part of it

 

[Parapraxis]

You don't even know the online system. It will be new and on beta for a while, so it has none to do with previous consoles.

There is little info about Switches online, but what we DO know doesn't bode well for it. Party chat via Phone app and 30 day trials of NES & SNES games, a completely convoluted message and general confusion due to Nintendo not being up-front about plans. People shouldn't get discouraged by this?

 

[True Fire]

I think people are WIDELY underestimating the social aspect of this thing.

Once kids take this to school and can share joycons to play Mario Kart, Smash and Pokemon, possibly Arms among whatever else Nintendo throws at this thing it i could spread like wildfire.

I say success.

I can see annoying rich kids bringing it to school, but $400 CAD is inaccessible to the vast majority of children in Canada.

 

[liquidtmd]

I'm really scratching my head as to how the mainstream marketing to this will play.

The Wii U was introduced with a gamepad that had off screen play - the non core / masses didn't take to it at all.

New Nintendo Switch console gets adverts: "Hey, it's another Nintendo console with another off screen gamepad and games like GTA and the like missing"

How do Nintendo make Switchs USP shine when cosmetically to the non educated it looks the same as the Wii U's USP?

 

[Shadow Broker]

Yes

 

[jts]

Do people really want to bet that Switch will perform that well even in Japan.

What's that with the controller? PS4 already comes with 2 controllers or?

Also does it compare the fact that one can be taken on the go and the other doesn't?

There is little info about Switches online, but what we DO know doesn't bode well for it. Party chat via Phone app and 30 day trials of NES & SNES games, a completely convoluted message and general confusion due to Nintendo not being up-front about plans. People shouldn't get discouraged by this?

It is fair to be concerned, but I don't think we should outright dismiss it. Like you said, there's still plenty to know about and plenty to be confirmed.

 

[LordRaptor]

I'm really scratching my head as to how the mainstream marketing to this will play.

The Wii U was introduced with a gamepad that had off screen play - the non core / masses didn't take to it at all.

New Nintendo Switch console gets adverts: "Hey, it's another Nintendo console with another off screen gamepad and games like GTA and the like missing"

How do Nintendo make Switchs USP shine when cosmetically to the non educated it looks the same as the Wii U's USP?

They probably should have shown it being used on an airplane, or people taking it outside with them and playing games there instead of only showing it connected to a TV

 

[schuelma]

Do people really want to bet that Switch will perform that well even in Japan.

Well, I can assure that Splatoon 2 alone is a much bigger deal in Japan than anything on the other side of that list.

 

[liquidtmd]

They probably should have shown it being used on an airplane, or people taking it outside with them and playing games there instead of only showing it connected to a TV

I hear you. I'm just talking about the masses perception of it.

 

[True Fire]

What happens if (when) Switch bombs? Will Nintendo release a successor to 3DS?

1. Price cut + ambassador program

2. $199 Switch Box (no handheld)

 

[LordRaptor]

I hear you. I'm just talking about the masses perception of it.

I could well be wrong, but I honestly don't believe the general population are going to have any conceptual difficulty understanding a portable device that can be docked to a TV.

Whether they see value in that I can't say, but I don't believe there will be any problems understanding that.

 

[peaceiscloser]

They probably should have shown it being used on an airplane, or people taking it outside with them and playing games there instead of only showing it connected to a TV

Didnt they show the dude playing Skyrim in a plane during thr initial reveal?

 

[Sectorseven]

It's in a weird spot. The value really isn't there if you compare it to a PS4, it has a pretty sparse 2017 lineup, and overall I just don't know who it's for aside from the type of people who buy both a Nintendo home console and portable.

 

[liquidtmd]

I could well be wrong, but I honestly don't believe the general population are going to have any conceptual difficulty understanding a portable device that can be docked to a TV.

Whether they see value in that I can't say, but I don't believe there will be any problems understanding that.

Again agree, but we lived through the Wii U where there were many reports of people being confused in thinking the Wii U was an add on (despite the ads being quite transparent) for the Wii, with lots of posters on GAF saying they should have called it 'Wii 2' to overcome that.

People are weird

 

[Parapraxis]

Again agree, but we lived through the Wii U where there were many reports of people being confused in thinking the Wii U was an add on (despite the ads being quite transparent) for the Wii, with lots of posters on GAF saying they should have called it 'Wii 2' to overcome that.

People are weird

I literally argued with a co-worker that the WiiU was a new console. He still to this day may think it's just an add-on lol

 

[Kingpin Rogers]

It'll be interesting to go back to this thread in a few years. Gaf seemed to be mostly wrong on Wii U and Wii so I wonder if that will be true with Switch as well.

I think it will be a moderate success; more than wii u less than 3ds if it can get exclusive pokemon, monster hunter and animal crossing developed for it. Nothing mind blowing but decent sales for Nintendo. If it doesn't get those games though, uh oh.

 

[Toxi]

People saying Wii U sales are forgetting Pokemon will presumably start releasing on it.

That said, I'm not expecting anything close to 3DS sales unless the price significantly goes down.

So again, predicting GameCube level.

 

[Sectorseven]

People saying Wii U sales are forgetting Pokemon will presumably start releasing on it.

That said, I'm not expecting anything close to 3DS sales unless the price significantly goes down.

So again, predicting GameCube level.

I'm sure that would help, but we're probably also getting a Pokemon game for mobile in the near future, and even if that is some variation of the main game, it might be good enough for a lot of people.

 

[Cincaid]

As someone who was interested in a console and not a handheld, my interest went from "somewhat interested" to "extremely slim interest".

The Digital Foundry analysis was interesting and really shows that Nintendo seems to handle the Switch as a "handheld first, console second" (at least when you look at the current lineup):

• Zelda is 720p/30fps in handheld, 900p/30fps docked. The handheld numbers is impressive, the docked numbers are not.
• Splatoon 2 is 60fps both in handheld and docked, but also only 720p in both scenarios.
• While they didn't get any direct feed of the Mario game they noticed that the official trailer was 720p.

Those somewhat disappointing numbers and also...

• Online with a fee. While we don't know the cost yet, or the infrastructure around their online system, the "play a NES/SNES game for a month"-bonus was laughable. Sure, they'll probably expand on this, and hopefully get a robust online account system, but right now this is not looking good.
• The price. Right now it's roughly $400 / €379 in Sweden (for JUST the Switch, not counting extra stuff like ProController), which is just not worth it for me. And those are not placeholder prices.
• The slim launch lineup. There are TWO games that I'm interested in: Zelda and Mario. Sure, this is my opinion, but there's no way I'm paying the above mentioned cost for just two games (+ the game prices).

All this is just screaming "NO THANKS" for me.

 

[Movalpolos]

If they killed their 3DS market to get an extra 2 million console sales that would be a colossal failure.

^

 

[Combichristoffersen]

Lol, just checked the Norwegian price at cdon.com. 4990 NOK/583,54 merkels/612,35 American rubles. This thing is stupidly expensive.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

After thinking on it for a couple days, I feel even more confident in my initial hot-take:

I do, but it's going to take awhile.

I think Switch is the start of a new, very long-term ecosystem for Nintendo.

Getting the price down and including a pack-in game (like Zelda, maybe?) for Christmas will go a long way in selling this device.

 

[Wildean]

Think it will be in short supply for first few months, so even those who aren't balking at the price won't be getting one without a preorder.

Longer term will need a big price drop, a steady flow of high profile titles, and a good marketing push. If it gets those it will do well enough.

If we're sitting here 18 months from now still complaining about the price and software lineup then it's Wii U 2 and god knows where Nintendo can go after that.

 

[WeirdoStalkerJr]

I am saving this thread for the massive amount of crow non believers will be eating when Switch sells pretty good.

 

[Joelstinton14]

After thinking on it for a couple days, I feel even more confident in my initial hot-take:



Getting the price down and including a pack-in game (like Zelda, maybe?) for Christmas will go a long way in selling this device.

I think after the initial understandable furore, and that people are starting to digest everything i have seen a little more positivity on Gaf. I think the Treehouse stuff and general hands on opinions as helped that.

Thats not to say there are issues for nintendo to overcome , but i don't think the Switch is in the horrible position people perceived it as a couple days ago. I think that although the power isn't there, people are starting to slowly see that the Switch feels like a premium device and that there is a lot of tech in the joy cons and are now starting to see that value in the system. Whether that transfers into sales i don't know, but if Nintendo make positive steps ( say a well implemented online system and make it optional - or cheaper to begin with) and the games start to trickle in, i can actually see many gamers taking to the system positively.

 

[xxracerxx]

After thinking on it for a couple days, I feel even more confident in my initial hot-take:

Getting the price down and including a pack-in game (like Zelda, maybe?) for Christmas will go a long way in selling this device.

I am saving this thread for the massive amount of crow non believers will be eating when Switch sells pretty good.

What is going on here?

 

[OrbitalBeard]

What is going on here?

Your guess is as good as mine.

 

[CanUKlehead]

What is going on here?

Rebellious teen.

 

[guek]

Do people really want to bet that Switch will perform that well even in Japan.

Do you realize how long it took PS4 to overtake Wii U in Japan? Cuz something tells me you don't.

 

[Dekuboy]

MonHun(exclusive), Splatoon, Pokemon and DQ11 in this year and I think it will do really good in Japan.

Other than that, console is sold out everywhere (germany), but look at ebay and there are thousands of people who just resell it for the double of the price.

I say 500k-1mio launchday imho. And if they support it with the titles I said, then Lifetime sales will be 80mio.

EDIT: also shouldn´t gaf be happy as fuck? This is literally the vita successor (same launch price, it will probably get the niche japanese games, region free)

 

[Starphoenix]

"Success" is a relative term, but I think it will be a massive improvement over the Wii U once Nintendo's consolidated library actually begins producing a steady release of games. Regardless of how GAF feels about whether Switch actually qualifies as a home console, most of the media is going to push the system as a handheld and console, and I think that novelty will be enough to push the average consumer to purchase one for their families.

 

[Champion]

I'd be shocked if they sold 50 million units.

 

[nikeboy94]

I'm hopful but I don't think nintendo has enough titles announced to excite people into buying the Switch. If Zelda is phenomimal then it might kick start some switch buzz, sort of like how the last of us got people buying ps3s.