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[MrMephistoX]

Impossible to say. They will have a tough time unless they lower the price of their console and their prepherials(controllers, dock).

Console is overpriced without a pack in but I don't get the hate on the peripheral cost literally everything you need for two players is in the box. The price at launch has me wondering if they're not quite ready to start canabalizing 3Ds sales figuring their hardcore fans will pay almost anything and then they can go into pushing it as a 3Ds successor moving into holiday 2017?

 

[Theonik]

Console is overpriced without a pack in but I don't get the hate on the peripheral cost literally everything you need for two players is in the box. The price at launch has me wondering if they're not quite ready to start canabalizing 3Ds sales figuring their hardcore fans will pay almost anything and then they can go into pushing it as a 3Ds successor moving into holiday 2017?

An extra controller costs between $70-110 depending on if you get the pro controller or dual joycons and a puppy dock.

That's crazy.

 

[ShadowFox08]

Console is overpriced without a pack in but I don't get the hate on the peripheral cost literally everything you need for two players is in the box. The price at launch has me wondering if they're not quite ready to start canabalizing 3Ds sales figuring their hardcore fans will pay almost anything and then they can go into pushing it as a 3Ds successor moving into holiday 2017?

$70-80 controllers is very expensive.

 

[freeofgreed]

I think it'll definitely do better than the Wii U at least. I'm thinking by the end of its lifetime it could at least do 3DS numbers. Wii numbers seem out of reach though imo.

Nintendo has several good things going for it that makes the switch in a better position than the Wii U.

-It's a portable and a home console. So Nintendo can consolidate their first party efforts. and it'll have access to franchises that were staples of one type of system, like Pokemon.

-It has no competition. The switch is a handheld first and a console second. People keep comparing this to the PS4/XBO when it should be compared to the 3DS/Vita both of which are on their death beds. Which pretty much gives the switch free reign over the audiences of both platforms. Plus the devs of both of those will probably navigate over to the switch.

-It's on ARM instead of X86, which may help in keeping exclusives since unlike PS4/XBO/PC devs actually have to put in some effort to port games.

-it's under powered, which I see as a blessing in disguise. Less dev time is needed so we'll be able to see faster turn around rates for games. Also devs who may be intimidated in creating a big budget AAA PS4/XBO game may find their niche in the more leveled playing field the Switch offers.

Of course it's Nintendo so of course they have to scrub it up in some ways tho...

-Their conference didn't inspire much confidence tbh. It felt like they learned nothing from the Wii U and are still chasing after the WII golden era AKA an audience that's never coming back,

-Weak launch line up and pricy. Not launching with a Pokemon or MH seems like a big mistake. Pokemon I can understand since S/M just launched and it's still selling well, but they totally should've foot the bill for Capcom to release a new MH game for the switches' launch. Or at least had a trailer or something to show.

-Paid online. I don't think this will benefit the Switch as much as you guys think. Paid online is mainly a western thing and I think Switches biggest strength will be in Japan who aren't really used to it. The biggest platforms there are PS3,3DS,Vita, and Mobile. All of which offer free online. There's the PS4 but that's not really selling super well there yet. Also I don't think the value is really worth it. Looking back at the Wii U/3DS very little games actually took advantage of online anyways. So with Nintendo's lackluster offerings/ few games to take advantage of it I think it might backfire on them. The only way I could see it being some type of a success is if it was like 10-20 dollars. If it's 50-60 like PS4/XBO then they can go fuck themselves.

Overall here's what I see as the road map which'll be very similar to the DS/3DS
-It'll sell out at launch due to a combination of, it being a new console/Nintendo's artificial scarcity
-It'll have a rough first year due to being expensive/lack of content
-it'll do ok around the holidays due to sales/bundles
-A year after launch Nintendo will announce either a price cut/revision. The library will become much more solid, and thus the console will hit its stride and take off.

 

[The Maverick]

I will stop posting on GAF if this cracks 40 million. There is no way, no how, not with what they've shown. I don't even think 35 million is in play. If they think Wii style retreads, Wii U ports, and an eventual Pokemon game will carry this system, they've got another thing coming.

 

[kraspkibble]

£280 for the Switch itself. £40-60 for games (Zelda/Mario is £60). That's insanely expensive and poor value for money. I could buy a PS4 and get 3 games for the price of the Switch itself. Right now the Switch doesn't even have 3 games worth buying (in my opinion).

It'll definitely have a rough start. If Nintendo want any chance of this being a success they need to lower prices. I'm not buying one until there is Zelda, Mario, Pokemon on it and even then if it's gonna cost me £460 then I'll just pass. That is just for the Switch + 3 games! Who knows what'll cost when you spend money on an accessories to make up for all the other shortcomings such as storage space (gonna need an SD card) and battery life (gonna need to hug the wall or buy a powerbank).

 

[Despera]

It will be slightly more successful than the Wii U.

I bet my tag on it.

 

[watdaeff4]

Sorry not going to read through 79 pages......


Did we define what is success or failure? The goalposts move around on this subject


If not, I will define success as selling the same as WiiU and 3ds combined because no matter what they say now, I suspect this is a consolidation effort on their part.

Spoiler

if usIng my definition it will fail

 

[Cute Dragon Here]

Nintendo won't exactly be pulling a second Nintendo DS or Wii again, but I think when everything settles down, Nintendo would be vindicated and stuff. Like, I expect it to make 3DS numbers or similar. More than good enough.

 

[freeofgreed]

I will stop posting on GAF if this cracks 40 million. There is no way, no how, not with what they've shown. I don't even think 35 million is in play. If they think Wii style retreads, Wii U ports, and an eventual Pokemon game will carry this system, they've got another thing coming.

Pokemon, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, and Yokai watch say hi. I doubt it'll reach Wii/DS heights but I think it's crazy to think that'll it won't at least reach 3DS heights which is at 60 million (so 20 mil more than your estimate). It will get the handheld crowd and it's console crowd.

 

[Pyroblazer]

I think it will be better than WiiU without a doubt. More titles and Pokemon alone will do that.
But I don't think it will be a huge success, I think somewhere between Gamecube-tier and N64-tier, maybe 40-45 million at best, which would be ok, but the worst handheld so far.

But of course it's way to difficult to predict that now, so many things can happen. A good E3, a huge price drop at Christmans with Mario and Pokemon and the momentum could turn around fast.

 

[PSFan]

Pokemon, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, and Yokai watch say hi. I doubt it'll reach Wii/DS heights but I think it's crazy to think that'll it won't at least reach 3DS heights which is at 60 million (so 20 mil more than your estimate). It will get the handheld crowd and it's console crowd.

They already confirmed that there's no Streetpass on the Switch. So that casts doubt on Pokemon and Yo-Kai which are by no means confirmed at all for the system.

 

[Vol5]

-It has no competition. The switch is a handheld first and a console second. People keep comparing this to the PS4/XBO when it should be compared to the 3DS/Vita both of which are on their death beds. Which pretty much gives the switch free reign over the audiences of both platforms. Plus the devs of both of those will probably navigate over to the switch.

The PS4 and XBOX are it's competition as well as mobile. It's being marketed as a home console that you can use on the go, not the other way around. Plus, when I go to a games shop the PS4, XO and Switch will be sold in the same space. To say it has no competition is ludicrous, even more so if you consider tablets and phones.

 

[TheMule1983]

I think it will be a slow burn and ultimately outsell the Xbox One.

 

[Lightning Lord]

They already confirmed that there's no Streetpass on the Switch. So that casts doubt on Pokemon and Yo-Kai which are by no means confirmed at all for the system.

Are we seriously suggesting that Pokemon won't show up on the next Nintendo system?

 

[Kazuo Hirai]

I think it will be a slow burn and ultimately outsell the Xbox One.

But Microsoft would not tell anyone Xbox sales number

 

[PSFan]

Are we seriously suggesting that Pokemon won't show up on the next Nintendo system?

Mainline Pokemon? Sure. Pokemon Stars is still a rumor at this point. If the Switch doesn't do well, it could still end up a 3DS game or for a new handheld. We don't even know if the Switch will be able to connect with the 3DS to trade from Sun/Moon to "Stars".

 

[mavericktopgun]

If they bring PS4 and Xbox One AND Switch only games then yes. Portable Dark Souls? Skyrim?

 

[Purest 78]

One thing I don't see people talking about is kids make up a large portion of the Handheld market. I can tell you as a Father lot's of parents aren't gonna spend $300 for kid's handheld.

 

[RPGam3r]

They already confirmed that there's no Streetpass on the Switch. So that casts doubt on Pokemon and Yo-Kai which are by no means confirmed at all for the system.

What does streetpass have to do with those entries showing up? This feels like such a reach.

 

[DasPenguin]

I think it will be a slow burn and ultimately outsell the Xbox One.

It will take a miracle for that to happen. I know it's portable, but it's way bigger and too expensive for that market. The game lineup looks really slim at launch and after that. If they have deals with 3rd parties, why won't they announce more games to get people interested in the machine?

I love Switch as an idea and would love to take my console games with me wherever I want, but that's hard to do when your machine misses 90 % of the big 3rd party games.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Fully expect this to be a Wii U level failure.

I appreciate Nintendo trying something new but they have completely lost the plot when it comes to pricing. All that HD rumble stuff is great and all but their first priority should have been to create an affordable device with affordable accessories. It's more expensive than a PS4 slim here.

 

[butman]

Better than the Wii U

Waaay worst than the 3DS

I don't expect in any case that the switch has even half of the third party catalog that has the 3DS.

 

[RPGam3r]

One thing I don't see people talking about is kids make up a large portion of the Handheld market. I can tell you as a Father lot's of parents aren't gonna spend $300 for kid's handheld.

As a father $300 doesn't seem like much when I see toys of far less functionality selling in the 100-150 range.

 

[Finalow]

I hope you like their theme parks

 

[Rolf NB]

I think it will be a slow burn and ultimately outsell the Xbox One.

Only in Japan.

 

[Purest 78]

As a father $300 doesn't seem like much when I see toys of far less functionality selling in the 100-150 range.

I just can't see it Every kid in my family owns some variation of DS. It's priced right and sturdy Can survive being dropped. The switch is the opposite it's expensive and looks like it'll break easily.

 

[hwy_61]

this thread is depressing. I really hope the Switch is a hit.

 

[CrisKre]

I think people are WIDELY underestimating the social aspect of this thing.

Once kids take this to school and can share joycons to play Mario Kart, Smash and Pokemon, possibly Arms among whatever else Nintendo throws at this thing it i could spread like wildfire.

I say success.

 

[7threst]

I think people are WIDELY underestimating the social aspect of this thing.

Once kids take this to school and can share joycons to play Mario Kart, Smash and Pokemon, possibly Arms among whatever else Nintendo throws at this thing it i could spread like wildfire.

I say success.

This what I was thinking as well. The mobile aspect of it can really take off when kids find out they can play a console version of Mario Kart on the go.

 

[PSFan]

I think people are WIDELY underestimating the social aspect of this thing.

Once kids take this to school and can share joycons to play Mario Kart, Smash and Pokemon, possibly Arms among whatever else Nintendo throws at this thing it i could spread like wildfire.

I say success.

Most schools prohibit the use of smartphones by students, what makes you think they'll allow them to use the Switch? lol

 

[hwy_61]

Most schools prohibit the use of smartphones by students, what makes you think they'll allow them to use the Switch? lol

lunch periods, yo

 

[CrisKre]

Most schools prohibit the use of smartphones by students, what makes you think they'll allow them to use the Switch? lol

kids use their 3ds on break, no?

 

[PSFan]

kids use their 3ds on break, no?

Not at the schools I work at. I've never seen any kids with portable games systems in school. Just smartphones that they can't use in class, but take out between classes.

lunch periods, yo

Students get about 30 minutes for lunch. Hardly enough time to eat and then set up the Switch and get a multiplayer game going.

 

[schuelma]

I'm still up in the air.

Cons:

-Too expensive
-Paid online with (as of now) no explanation of why the $ will be worth it. (Potential huge negative with younger crowd)
-Launch lineup is weak
-Third party support, especially Western, looks typically anemic

Pros:

-Announced first party lineup much more compelling than Wii U
-Impressions of the hardware itself are universally positive- might get some initial sales/buzz just based on the hardware.
-Japanese support looks somewhat promising


Overall I think it will do fine at launch, then sputter until Splatoon 2 in the summer. IF the current game schedule holds and Pokemon Stars is real, I think by November the console could be on its way to actually replacing the 3DS and doing well. You would have a library with Zelda, Splatoon, a great new 3D Mario, plus Pokemon and hopefully some decent bundles.

 

[StereoVsn]

One thing I don't see people talking about is kids make up a large portion of the Handheld market. I can tell you as a Father lot's of parents aren't gonna spend $300 for kid's handheld.

Yeah, my kids have a 3DS and 2DS for some basic games (they are still quite young) and I don't see getting a Switch till some major price drops and even then probably only one for the two of them.

That said, unless Nintendo is completely out of their collective minds a mainline Pokémon will be on the Switch this year or early next year.

 

[hwy_61]

Not at the schools I work at. I've never seen any kids with portable games systems in school. Just smartphones that they can't use in class, but take out between classes.



Students get about 30 minutes for lunch. Hardly enough time to eat and then set up the Switch and get a multiplayer game going.

sure it is

 

[Glendemonium]

Predictions:

-It'll do fine in Japan

-It might struggle in the US and EU, not as bad as the Vita though.

-The 3DS will eventually see a decline in support in favor of the Switch from first and second parties. Price drop or bundles will start showing up around holiday season. IIRC the Wii U was like this until bundles starting popping up.

 

[Circinus]

I think it will be a very moderate success at best; I expect the sales after 4-5 years to be Gamecube-tier.


Like I've said when the first promo video reveal of the Switch was released:

I don't think the Nintendo Switch will appeal to mainstream / family audience as well as 3DS did.

- Price is on the higher-end
- The price of the games is very high, yet from the portable gaming, people are getting accustomed to mobile games being free or inexpensive, so I think paying €60 for Switch games is going to be hard to swallow for some people.
- Western publisher support is likely going to be very limited and I don't think Mario and Pokémon (eventually) alone are going to carry it.



Personally, I'm definitely interested in the Switch though. Seems like Nintendo (not a big fan of DS and 3DS at all) has finally made a handheld that measures up to what you'd expect from a modern consumer electronic device that costs >€200. The hardware seems very decent, the display looks all right, it has all the controls/buttons you'd expect, the joy-cons have some neat features, they've finally they've implemented a proper capacitive touchscreen.


From a handheld point of view, I kind of consider it a spiritual successor to the PS Vita.

 

[Milly Osworth]

What happens if (when) Switch bombs? Will Nintendo release a successor to 3DS?

 

[Straight Edge]

The profit margins on Switch and the accessories must be HUGE. Nintendo cares about selling hardware, not games.

 

[Acquiescence]

By the simple virtue of it being a hybrid console, thereby combining both home console and handheld support, the Switch will undoubtedly fare better than the Wii U. This thing will be getting Pokemon at some point, and that right there is a guaranteed money maker.

Having said that, I think the Switch will suffer from many of the same problems that blighted the Wii U. It's underpowered for a start, coming out over 3 years after the PS4 and Xbox One yet being lower in specs, which in turn will hurt third-party support in much the same way. It's surprisingly expensive for what it is, the controllers are costly and the line-up is already priding itself on late ports. The parallels with Nintendo's previous console just seem unavoidable. It feels like they're making a lot of the same mistakes again. And on top of that, the launch roster looks really weak and pay online is now a thing.

It'll be a smash in Japan. It will absolutely dominate over there. Otherwise, I see it doing... merely okay.

 

[Copenap]

I expect Wii U levels of failure, maybe a little better, maybe even a little worse because they lost a lot of goodwill with the Wii U and so far everything points to more bad decisions.

 

[Memento]

What happens if (when) Switch bombs? Will Nintendo release a successor to 3DS?

Switch Handheld only. Home console no more from Nintendo.

 

[Snakey125]

Not at the schools I work at. I've never seen any kids with portable games systems in school. Just smartphones that they can't use in class, but take out between classes.



Students get about 30 minutes for lunch. Hardly enough time to eat and then set up the Switch and get a multiplayer game going.

University students will love this. I knew a few people who bought their WiiUs with them thanks to the off-screen feature on the gamepad.


I can see it doing very well in japan. Always-on-the-go society which is the reason why the home console market is in a bit of a pickle. I would say the sales will be better than the WiiU. Outside, It might sell better. That paid online will throw a LOT of people off the system as it was the only advantage Nintendo has over others.

 

[Purest 78]

It's in a tough spot it'll appeal to die hard Nintendo fans but that's it imo. Console wise ps4 and x1 are better and cheaper options. As a Handheld it's way to expensive.

 

[DooMAGE]

I expect Wii U levels of failure, maybe a little better, maybe even a little worse because they lost a lot of goodwill with the Wii U and so far everything points to more bad decisions.

Why they lost good will? Besides the bad sales they still supported the machine with good first party content, different like that company that abandoned the Vita. lmao

 

[blue_phazon]

Switch will sell a little bit more than WiiU and a lot less than the 3DS. This thing is a disaster and be a failure just like the WiiU.

Still buying it for Mario and Xenoblade though, but probably in 2018.

 

[The_Dama]

Failure is prett much guaranteed IMO. Wii U level of success. I'm basing this on the line up, no 3rd party support, price, their online system.

 

[Sakura]

I'd like to hope it will do better than the Wii U, but I don't know... The games aren't there at launch, and the price seems high. Depends if the portability catches on or not I guess.