Suburban Thug
Member
You realize the handheld market there is shrinking right? Or that this has horrible battery life? Or that it's gigantic compared to a 3ds and doesn't fit in a pocket?
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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Sega is still not nintendo?
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
This contributor seems to put the entire wii u game list and compares it to the Switch launch
ExigentContact
Member
Nintendo makes a significant portion of their money off of console licensing and hardware though. Assuming Nintendo would go third party would remove one of their core money streams right out from under them, would force restructuring and downsizing, thus making them more risk averse than they are now and even more focused on their core IPs than before.
I mean, think about this. Look at all of the major third party publishers today. They've all battened down the hatches, gotten far less risky, and focused on known quantities. Nintendo is the rare publisher/developer that does take the occasional risk. Sometimes big ones.
People really wish from a monkey's paw when it comes to Nintendo going third party. I think they underestimate how damaging it would be to Nintendo's business and ability to out put a diverse range of software.
They shared similar positions and recognition in the gaming business, so I would say it's a good example from a possible outcome,
I don't think ever had games as popular as those of Nintendo.
tenderbrew
Member
I think it will exceed GAF-type opinions because the type of person that uses GAF isn't the primary audience. Half the reason the Wii U failed was a failure of marketing and Switch won't have that same problem. It's the new Nintendo and everyone knows it is the new Nintendo. That outreach to the younger crowds counts for a lot - they are the people that buy 3DS. Anecdotally nearly all my friends kids, or extended family's kids have multiple 3DS units around the house. None of them had Wii Us and TO THIS DAY when I talk about it are still confused as to what it is. That gives them a huge head start. Having Mario for the holiday is also huge. Having Mario Kart (even a re-release) in the first year is HUGE (Mario Kart Wii 30+mm units). Actually when you look at it that way its smart. March release for the early adopters (older gamers with their own incomes) who are much more likely to be into Zelda. Ramp up production schedule on the supply side for Holiday to hit the kids with Mario. Maybe have a Mario Kart bundle by that time.
At least that's the way I see it. Hardcore gamers have never been the harbinger of the industry and this is uniquely a place filled with hardcore gamers.
At least that's the way I see it. Hardcore gamers have never been the harbinger of the industry and this is uniquely a place filled with hardcore gamers.
They'll get their mobile games, they're fine
I was just in Japan last week...didn't see a single person playing a 3DS my entire time there. They were all on their smartphones.
Spirit Icana
Member
mr stroke
Member
This thing is way too big to be a true portable in Japan. I see this being the biggest Nintendo flop ever (And I have one pre ordered)
jts
...hate me...
Fair enough, but it would help a bit going to the $250 even if Nintendo also had to eat some of that.
Dont you know? They may not release Pokemon on it or Monster hunter! besides Pokemon is just a trend, a fad. It'll be dead this year surely.
Pokémon is just one limited market. I hear you, I do. And that market once it arrives will eat it up. But they will see it as their Pokémon machine. As good as that revenue is, I dont feel it enough for this.
weevles
Member
I think the concept is great but what will determine the success is the software support. Switch sounds like what the Vita should have been: a portable system powerful enough to double as a console. Based on the sloppy, disorganized presser, I'm leaning towards another lackluster console generation for Nintendo unfortunately. 😕
This is totally true. Like, you can pretty much guarantee that you'd get a new Zelda or Smash Brothers on the PS4 but would you still get something that sells as low as Xenoblade or would they have tried Splatoon? Would they have picked up Bayonetta 2? As a platform holder they're somewhat responsible for gaps in the systems selection so making a title that doesn't sell well but may tip people over wanting a game like that to buy their system and perhaps other games once they've got it is good business. As a third party though they have no responsibility to fill in gaps in the system's selection and really there's no gain for them to make anything that doesn't sell.
However, as a consumer I'm getting rather tired of buying an extra box just for Nintendo games, and honestly, going without Nintendo's unsafe choices is starting to look good to me if it means I don't have to buy their crappy hardware anymore.
Wii U failed because it was a crap concept and deserved to fail. And it wasn't just marketing, it's that it was such a poor system that there was no outside influence, word of mouth if you will, driving sales, again because it was a crap product. It's not like everyone who bought a Wii did so because of commercials, people were talking about it. Nobody was talking about the Wii U.
And again, outside of marketing if you're out shopping at Wal-Mart or wherever you buy games for yourself or your kids or whomever, if you have 2 systems with tons of displays and fixtures dedicated to them and then one dedicated to the Wii U, you're probably not going to think that looks like a viable purchase. You're not going to ask about it. The Wii had software, like what software it was or not, it had presence in a store. To the uninitiated game buying consumer at no point did it look like a shitty purchase. Sure we know that its' ports were the worst between the systems but not everyone knows this. If you're buying for kids you might not even care if it's at the right price point.
You talk about your friends without a Wii U that to this day still don't get it. They don't get it still not because the marketing but because it's so underwhelming they don't care to get it. It's not attractive enough to research. Not attractive enough to try.
And there is one of Nintendo's problems. You have to "get" it to begin with. Nobody has any trouble "getting" the Xbox One or the PS4. Everybody understands what they both are. Of course people have their preferences and whatnot but you don't see Microsoft fans blaming it's lower sales against Playstation by claiming consumers don't just "get" it. We give the consumer a little too little credit when we do this. If I tell someone the Wii U's the new Nintendo system most of the time they know what that means. It's usually when I explain what's good about it that the whole thing falls apart. And it falls apart when I try and tell people what they can do with it. Before Smash, Mario Kart and some of the other big hitters came out what would I use to sell the system? And then what do I tell them to look forward to and for how fucking long? And in the meantime they're thinking, can't play DVDs, doesn't have near as many "apps" for viewing content as its competitors, and they're waiting months and months for a reason between turning it on. And this is where "getting" it I guess is supposed to come into play. Here's the point where you try and ignore all the reasons that it's a piece of shit game system and explain that "yeah, you're going to wait months and months for the next game to play, but, you see, the way you play it is just so innovative it's totally worth it!" Bullshit.
The Wii U totally failed on it's own merits.
I don't think the Switch is going to do great but it's not near as impossible a sale as the Wii U. Assuming that Nintendo and their partners have more titles in the works. If all they showed was it, yikes.
Seijuro
Member
Hard to tell at the moment, at least in year one it is a tough sell. Hardware and especially accessory pricing is crazy (70 pro controller, 85 for another joy con). On the games side it doesn't seem better than the first year of Wii U or 3DS either.
People in the west are used to smartphones right now and aren't looking for a handheld, and as a home console it's a more expensive offering than a PS4 or Xbone.
Of course there is the crowd that bought the 3DS, but they are probably gonna wait for a price drop.
People in the west are used to smartphones right now and aren't looking for a handheld, and as a home console it's a more expensive offering than a PS4 or Xbone.
Of course there is the crowd that bought the 3DS, but they are probably gonna wait for a price drop.
Prithee Be Careful
Industry Professional
It's interesting how those with confidence in the Switch are relying on big-name portables like Pokemon and Monster Hunter to win the day...
Seems to me that while some can't agree on whether or not the Switch will be a success, attitudes seem to imply that, as a force in the home console market, pretty much everyone regards Nintendo as completely fucking spent.
Seems to me that while some can't agree on whether or not the Switch will be a success, attitudes seem to imply that, as a force in the home console market, pretty much everyone regards Nintendo as completely fucking spent.
What's a Wii-U?
Not really, Nintendo is still going to be a force in the video-game industry. Still one of the top publishers. Doesn't matter if it's called a home, hybrid or portable console.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
Wow this topic exploded since I first clicked it, shouldn't be surprised.
The Wii's "momentum" had fizzled out years before the Wii U launched. Nintendo was never, ever going to get those people who bought it when the fad was hot.
The Wii's "momentum" had fizzled out years before the Wii U launched. Nintendo was never, ever going to get those people who bought it when the fad was hot.
Honestly that would've been a mistake, this idea is great for Nintendo but their execution is also typical Nintendo. There's almost certainly a good deal of room to cut costs.
cyberheater
PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
They can't keep having console failure after console failure and and still be relevant.
I'm not sure there are millions of folks out there that are hungry enough for Mario to buy this somewhat expensive niche halfway console.
Chezzymann
Member
id say theres hope they will still occasionally take risks if that happens. Blizzard did a pretty big risk with overwatch that paid off tremendously, and DICE made a gamble setting their biggest franchise in world war 1. Ubisoft occasionally does experimental stuff like grow home. So it still happens.
BocoDragon
or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
I think it will be modestly successful, merely because of the combination of the home console and portable audience.
But the gimmick of the switch itself won't be the big reason it does ok.
But the gimmick of the switch itself won't be the big reason it does ok.
Not an immediate success, but probably one none the less when we begin to see the fruits of dev teams focusing on one console platform. Looking forward to the amazing library in a year and a half... even if the launch line up is underwhelming.
This too.
This too.
Murdamonk
Member
People keep on saying that once Pokemon or Monster Hunter hits.. It will be game over.
Didn't MH came out on the Wii U also? It got great reviews.. But didn't save the Wii U at all.
Pokemon will help sell a shitload of units..
But what Nintendo really needs is more and better third party games and support. 3ds has a lots of third party support.
Ubisoft wil brings Rayman..
EA will bring Fifa legacy edition..
Capcom.. SF2..
And then these companies wonders why their games won't sell on a Nintendo platform.
Didn't MH came out on the Wii U also? It got great reviews.. But didn't save the Wii U at all.
Pokemon will help sell a shitload of units..
But what Nintendo really needs is more and better third party games and support. 3ds has a lots of third party support.
Ubisoft wil brings Rayman..
EA will bring Fifa legacy edition..
Capcom.. SF2..
And then these companies wonders why their games won't sell on a Nintendo platform.
Check out this thread from 2012:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769
Pretty much everyone predicts the Wii U will be a rip-roaring success and that Nintendo will continue its dominance.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769
Pretty much everyone predicts the Wii U will be a rip-roaring success and that Nintendo will continue its dominance.
The last few years have been rather barren for Wii U and yet their lineup for the first year is, all in all, not mindblowing. There's also the question if they will truly abandon the 3DS and how much their output will decrease due to the increased costs (time/money) of HD development. I recall somewhat similar arguments for Wii U before launch, back then about HD development.
Edit:
American date system always gets me.
Yes, but SEGA was also heavily indebted by the time the Dreamcast came out and also never had the same market share Nintendo still claims nowadays. Doesn't mitigate your argument tho.
NowhereFaded
Member
No. Not when you can get a ps4 or xbone for the same price. Kids play moblile games on phones and iPads now. IMO. I really hope I'm wrong on this .
Japan is almost irrelevant in the console market now.
MonHun will move some units but it won't be a 3DS level success over there.
Baseballjones
Neo Member
Should have made a toaster!
That thread is so precious.
It will be even truer now: multiplatform owners will be the luckiest gamers. Owning a Switch won't mean competing for the same, limited time with other consoles. We will play at different times. Not only when we're home, or in the living room.
I have a friend who skipped Zelda TP, because he had a PS3 backlog and couldn't find time to play Zelda. Now he has a PS4 with tons of games, yet he preordered the Switch yesterday for Zelda.
Being a stewart makes the Switch the best new toy for him. Lucky bastard.
I have a friend who skipped Zelda TP, because he had a PS3 backlog and couldn't find time to play Zelda. Now he has a PS4 with tons of games, yet he preordered the Switch yesterday for Zelda.
Being a stewart makes the Switch the best new toy for him. Lucky bastard.
jts
...hate me...
Good dig-up.
Goes to show how fast everything changes and how early opinions are worth squat.
Switchs fortune is still very much up in the air.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
I wish people would stop comparing Switch's line up to the PS4/XB1 first year line ups. It's an irrelevant comparison, we're in 2017. They don't have a price advantage, nor do they have a complete online service. If you think Zelda and Mario are going to convince people to pick up Switch instead of the cheaper, more powerful and content rich PS4/XB1 then I have some news for you.
Kinda precious that we have some people pretending Wii U never happened now.
FrenchMovieTheme
Member
It'll top out st 20-30 mil max ww so I don't know if that is considered good or not
I think he was referring to the joy-cons sharing similarities with the WiiMote.
That would be absolutely terrible because that puts it in just Gamecube territory where this thing is supposed to get their console and handheld sales.
For perspective, while the Wii U only sold around 13 million in it's lifetime the 3DS is over 61 million, the Switch is supposed to target both markets combined. So that'd(20 to 30 million) be around a 50% reduction in overall market share.
AdventureRacing
Member
The first statement isn't really true. Japan has lost a lot of its relevancy but a console selling 10-20 million units in a single region is hardly irrelevant.
The second part is what's important. If Nintendo can achieve that sort of success with the switch then Japan is very relevant. I don't think any of the console manufacturers would scoff at 20+ million pieces of HW sold. I agree that it remains to be seen how the switch will perform. A console with MH, DQ, Pokemon, splatoon, animal crossing, mario, Mario kart, smash bros, yokai watch etc is a promising proposition. I wouldn't 100% write it off yet.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
Modest success to begin with, but inevitably the relative softness of 3rd party support will seal its fate.
Bottom line: there's a massive disparity in the numbers who'd be interested in Nintendo's flagship titles, and those committed sufficiently to buy a console the almost entire purpose of which is to play those evergreen exclusives on.
Bottom line: there's a massive disparity in the numbers who'd be interested in Nintendo's flagship titles, and those committed sufficiently to buy a console the almost entire purpose of which is to play those evergreen exclusives on.
joecanada
Member
That would be horrid remember we are replacing WiiU + 3ds sales here ... Horrid
TheShampion
Member
I was going to say it'll be a failure, but I just preordered one on a whim, so now I'll say I sure hope it is successful.
Even if it doesn't sell well, the Switch will have enough games for me and my busy schedule, so it'll work out for me.
Even if it doesn't sell well, the Switch will have enough games for me and my busy schedule, so it'll work out for me.
Maximus.
Member
It needs a few must have titles that have mainstream appeal. Right now Zelda being released on Wii U and Switch will potentially hurt some initial purchases and the lack of a compelling line up for the first few months is discouraging. I think once a price drop/bundle come into play, things may get better.
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