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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?

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S

SeanR1221

Member
It will be nintendos last traditional console/handheld.

They'll focus on mobile, the theme park, merchandise and bringing popular franchises to Sony, PC and Microsoft.

They won't take risks on games like arms and only the hardcore will be bummed. Mario, Zelda, smash and kart will go on to do their highest numbers ever.
 
B

Bear Force One

Banned
The sales graphs of Nintendo consoles are on a steady fall save the Wii upswing. Add to the Switch the handheld audience too and they may keep WiiU plus say 30% which is by no means a stellar success.
 
E

Euron

Member
Gamecube numbers are optimistic for the device but it will almost certainly do better than the Wii U as there will not be any confusion regarding whether or not it's an add-on. It won't sell anything near the numbers of previous handhelds though because it's nowhere near the price of those and Nintendo is primarily marketing it as a console.

The Wii worked so well because it was incredibly easy to understand what it did and it could not have had a more perfect pack-in game. The Switch will be too complex for the casual audience with its break-apart controller and hybrid nature.

Nintendo is in a difficult place because their hardcore fans are not nearly enough to carry a console. They're still attempting to reclaim the casual audience that made the Wii a massive success but with smartphones and tablets providing a quick fix for sometimes no additional payment at all, I doubt the audience will ever return.
 
A

Albo

Member
They seem to be making the same mistakes and more from the pricing, power, launch lineup, online, third parties, vc, gimmick controls focus, battery life etc. Trying to attract two different audiences with a hybrid ended up detracting the system as a home console and handheld which alienates a lot of people. They could market to 3ds audience once it`s cheaper and the library matures with pokemon and all console exclusives (of which mario and zelda look amazing), so it has potential to be successful.
 
Murdamonk

Murdamonk

Member
I really hope it will succeed, but i think it will be another WiiU.

Not powerful enough for a home console, yet priced too high for a portable. Japanese will stick to its 3ds or mobile.
 
O

orthodoxy1095

Banned
Polygonal_Sprite said:
The Switch has the potential to sell to not only Wii U owners but also 3DS owners. That's a potential 75 million customers. I don't understand the negativity about potential Switch sales quoting WiiU and even GameCube numbers. Nintendo will sell four or five million Switch consoles in the first few months off the back of hardcore Nintendo fans and when that surge starts to fade Splatoon 2 will give it a huge boost in Japan and E3 will hopefully show what most of their development teams have been working on. The holidays will obviously be huge like with most Nintendo hardware not named Wii U especially with Mario launching and Black Friday deals. Switch could outsell Wii U inside 18 months.

Outside of the gaf bubble Switch seems to have been received quite positively because those people weren't obsessed with specs, core third party support and fake leaks about $199 price points, extra content to ports which didn't happen (MK8), resurrections of extremely niche titles (Mother 3) and cross over games (Rabbids X Yoshi).

Switch also won't be hamstrung by price cuts like Wii U was with the dumb expensive Gamepad and extremely exotic silicon. Switch could potentially be $199 by late 2018 which will then open it up to the massive casual audience which are on a budget.
Click to expand...
Outside of the GAF bubble, third party support is the biggest deal, far and away outstripping any first party exclusives. All we need to do is look at NPDs from the past decade to see that.
 
C

Cutebrute

Member
I think it will do better than Gamecube if it gets Pokémon out soon, but I'm seriously questioning a Stars release in 2017. Either way, I don't think it will perform well enough to get out of the Gamecube tier unless price cuts/bundles, Mario, Pokémon, and something else all happens by this holiday. 25-28m units Lifetime is what I would bet on now.
 
C

Caelus

Member
So much of this thing looks sleek.

The interface, the console and its accessories, the box art, the cartridges - it's all more subdued and beautiful than the clunky mess that was the Wii U and its overall presentation.

I think if there's one thing that they got right and will ultimately positively affect sales, it's the look and feel of the console. Now if only they could get the other stuff right...
 
G

gustave154

Member
Around N64 level of sales and I am being optimistic. $299 is a great price but the PS4 and Xbone is the same price too which might lessen sales.
 
J

JJH

Member
SeanR1221 said:
It will be nintendos last traditional console/handheld.

They'll focus on mobile, the theme park, merchandise and bringing popular franchises to Sony, PC and Microsoft.

They won't take risks on games like arms and only the hardcore will be bummed. Mario, Zelda, smash and kart will go on to do their highest numbers ever.
Click to expand...

This makes too much sense for Nintendo to do. If they did go through with it though...

13yNFN1TlNCjC0.gif
 
K

kswiston

Member
gustave154 said:
Around N64 level of sales and I am being optimistic. $299 is a great price but the PS4 and Xbone is the same price too which might lessen sales.
Click to expand...

I was think 50-60% of the 3DS' LTD, which would be a bit better than N64. However, the N64 was around 20M in North America and sold terribly in Japan. I'm going to guess that Japan and North America are pretty close this time around. Maybe Gamecube numbers in the US and GBA numbers in Japan. Unless Japan is perfectly fine with transitioning almost entirely to smartphones I guess. Nothing else is selling there to give Switch a run for its money.
 
M

Mokujin

Member
SeanR1221 said:
It will be nintendos last traditional console/handheld.

They'll focus on mobile, the theme park, merchandise and bringing popular franchises to Sony, PC and Microsoft.

They won't take risks on games like arms and only the hardcore will be bummed. Mario, Zelda, smash and kart will go on to do their highest numbers ever.
Click to expand...

That worked nicely for SEGA.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
BowieZ said:
Success-wise, it'll be an improvement on Gamecube/Wii U because it's also the portable, and as such will get all the mainline Pokemon and Animal Crossing games, etc.
Click to expand...

On a note related to this post, I think that we're about to get a real sense of if Nintendo's mobile offerings drive people to buy Nintendo consoles for console-style versions of those games or not.

Pokemon Go obviously drove Sun and Moon numbers, to some degree, but there were already 60M 2DSes and 3DSes out there, and the ones that were snapped up this holiday season were often priced under a hundred bucks.

Will Super Mario Run push people to buy a Switch at three hundred dollars? At $250? At $200? Will Animal Crossing Mobile or FE Mobile do that? Or will people be content with playing the cheaper mobile versions of those games rather than putting forth the cash outlay for a Switch?

This is a big thing for Nintendo since they're counting on driving gamers to their console offerings via their mobile offerings.
 
P

PHOENIXZERO

Member
13ruce said:
If they cut they price by holiday and release pokemon stars soon a decent success like 3ds not 60m units but max 30-40m
Click to expand...

Basically I'm along the lines of this, it also being hand held and having those IPs might be the only thing that saves it from the Wii U fate but it's still going to be a sizable decline over the 3DS barring a sharp price drop.
 
E

etking

Banned
With a 100$ price drop it could be successful. But no way at 300$, not with this weak hardware that only allows to play for 3 mobile hours and cannot even render last generation games like Zelda in 1080p.
 
Superkewl

Superkewl

Member
I just wish Nintendo would make a proper console, no more gimmicky bullshit. I would love to see a successor to the SNES. Obviously not a cartridge system, but just a normal console.
 
O

orthodoxy1095

Banned
Ataru said:
Except it hasn't, sadly. Sega still makes some good games, but are less likely to take risks, and will never match the glory days of the Dreamcast.
Click to expand...
I feel like with the risk-taking especially there's some question of power dynamics and such more than it strictly being about them turning into a software creator. Not to say that wouldn't happen to Nintendo though.
 
VenomousCoffee

VenomousCoffee

Member
I'm not Nintendo's target audience at all, and I never really considered getting one. But...

Everything about the Switch seems like a mistake. Underpowered, overpriced, terrible lineup, battery problems, looming 3rd party problems. But most of all, it's a hybrid that offers the downside of both sides: the power of a handheld while at home, and the cost (and battery) of a console while on the road.
 
O

Ocarina_117

Banned
I believe it will emulate the 3DS. Initial pick ups due to Zelda, Mario Kart and Spla2on.

Pokémon stars and Mario Odessey guarantee a solid holiday season at least.

More games to be announced at E3 also (retro, rumoured metroid etc).

A pack in bundle while keeping the same price will also help a lot.
 
G

guyssorry

Member
I feel like one of the few people on here actually extremely hopeful about the Switch. Of course, there are many issues, such as the price of the controllers, and I seriously HATE paid online, but to say that this will be worse than the Wii U? Seriously, what?

I care about the games. My parents bought me a PS4 with TLOU in summer of 2014. I didn't get another game until Bloodborne in 2015, which was 8-9 months later. It was terrible to have to wait so long. It was extremely similar with the Wii U. These consoles had barely anything memorable for the first 1-2 years (same with the Xbox One, which I sold very quickly and, imo, still has very very few games even worth playing). Anyone else feel this way?

Here, in the 1st year of the Switch, I am already interested in at least 10 games: Zelda (looks like GOTG/GOAT material), Mario (same as Zelda), Splatoon, Bomberman (super happy about this revival), Xenoblade (sequel to best 7th-gen home-console jrpg), Dragon Quest Heroes 1/2, Mario Kart, Arms, Shin Megami Tensei (best jrpg series ever), Yooka Laylee, Street Fighter, Stardew Valley, etc. and we still don't know what all of the other developers are working on.

Like I said, of course there are issues, but I have zero worries about the future library of games on the Switch. The first year is looking to be one of the better 1st years of any console, and it is especially better than the U/4/One.
 
C

cyba89

Member
The Nintendo hardcore crowd will mostly carry it the first few months but I can see it doing quite well in the holidays when Mario (and maybe Pokémon) comes out and do a nice bundle with Splatoon 2, Mario Kart or Smash ports.

Everything after that is totally up in the air because we don't know about games for the next year but I still think the concept of the console has the potential to resonate quite well with the general consumer (unlike WiiU where everyone was just confused).
 
O

ohkay

Member
I think it will be ok because Nintendo won't be splitting development teams between a handheld device and a console, so there will be fewer droughts compared to their previous consoles
 
A

AppleSeason

Member
Sesuadra said:
I don't know about that. I pre-ordered the switch for 330€ yesterday at amazon.de. The last remaining stock is now sold by amazon.de for 350€. There seems to be a lot of demand even at that price.
Click to expand...

There's people who always need to have the latest gadget + people who buy the console just for Zelda (like people who jumped on the Wii bandwagon just for Skyward Sword). After that novelty period we will see how the public who is not a Nintendo inconditional or lacks disposable income reacts. Not mention those who like me, always wait for the revision when it comes to Nintendo handhelds (mostly because I had to learn this the hard way with both DS and 3DS).
 
S

Shadow Ranger

Member
Secure third party like DS days and unique games (Trauma Centre back then was dope) and it'll do just fine.

Me personally, I think I'll be happy and I'm not the biggest Nintendo fan either.
 
S

Spiritwalker

Member
GC-tier is probably the ceiling for this console, and that's being generous. I don't see it pushing more without hardcore AAA/third-party support.
 
R

Rodin

Member
SeanR1221 said:
It will be nintendos last traditional console/handheld.

They'll focus on mobile, the theme park, merchandise and bringing popular franchises to Sony, PC and Microsoft.

They won't take risks on games like arms and only the hardcore will be bummed. Mario, Zelda, smash and kart will go on to do their highest numbers ever.
Click to expand...


6jdJl8P.gif


Damn for all the shit you throw at Nintendo and their games, you guys would really like that.

Ataru said:
Forbes is already calling it the Wii-U 2.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2017/01/13/why-im-worried-the-nintendo-switch-is-just-another-wii-u/#1a549fcd51f0
Click to expand...
Contributor*
 
T

TheOMan

Tagged as I see fit
Bgamer90 said:
Don't see how this is possible without major AAA third party support. EA for example obviously aren't committed to the system (at least not yet).

The system will be fortunate to do better than GameCube I think.
Click to expand...

This is where I'm at.

I hope I'm wrong though - I've purchased every Nintendo system from the NES to the Wii.
 
C

Caelus

Member
In my head, I wonder if they could've made the Nintendo Joy-Con instead, two separate consoles - one home, one handheld - each plays the same games and shares the same OS and account system.

The home is around $250-$300 and is built for home so it's not upclocked mobile hardware, the handheld around $200 and has an IPS 540p screen with a smaller form factor and bigger battery life (obviously the con in joy-con would stand for console and not controller).

I have a feeling they might go with separate SKU's in the future, but that's weird, because those would defeat the purpose of the Nintendo Switch. Then again, 2DS...
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
guyssorry said:
I feel like one of the few people on here actually extremely hopeful about the Switch. Of course, there are many issues, such as the price of the controllers, and I seriously HATE paid online, but to say that this will be worse than the Wii U? Seriously, what?

I care about the games. My parents bought me a PS4 with TLOU in summer of 2014. I didn't get another game until Bloodborne in 2015, which was 8-9 months later. It was terrible to have to wait so long. It was extremely similar with the Wii U. These consoles had barely anything memorable for the first 1-2 years (same with the Xbox One, which I sold very quickly and, imo, still has very very few games even worth playing). Anyone else feel this way?

Here, in the 1st year of the Switch, I am already interested in at least 10 games: Zelda (looks like GOTG/GOAT material), Mario (same as Zelda), Splatoon, Bomberman (super happy about this revival), Xenoblade (sequel to best 7th-gen home-console jrpg), Dragon Quest Heroes 1/2, Mario Kart, Arms, Shin Megami Tensei (best jrpg series ever), Yooka Laylee, Street Fighter, Stardew Valley, etc. and we still don't know what all of the other developers are working on.

Like I said, of course there are issues, but I have zero worries about the future library of games on the Switch. The first year is looking to be one of the better 1st years of any console, and it is especially better than the U/4/One.
Click to expand...

So, yes, it is about the games. The thing is that you're in the minority. For most people, TLOU/Overwatch/Destiny/Madden/FIFA/NBA 2K/Uncharted/MKX/Bloodborne/Demon's Souls are the killer lineup and Mario/Zelda/Xenoblade are not.

Nintendo fans into specifically Nintendo games are clearly about 13-14M strong - we know because of the WiiU.

This having gimped FIFA and no Madden is going to hurt it with most of the audience and how they personally feel about "caring about the games."
 
gow3isben

gow3isben

Member
Wii U bombed despite huge momentum going in and a great positive response from the previous generation. Now the situation is the complete opposite and Nintendo has en even weaker launch line-up and nothing revolutionary like Wii motion controls to counteract the strong deficit in machine power. Third party support is just out of the picture as well and the price point is pretty steep.

It will do worse than the Wii U overall, but launch may be a bit better because of Zelda.
 
W

Wheatly

Member
Eh I don't get the doom and gloom in here.

We have Zelda, Mario, XB 2 (maybe) coming out this year, which are much more attractive heavy hitters than what Xbone and PS4 offered during their first year.

I guess the library is going to be a problem if its ones only gaming device, but I don't imagine it will be for most.
 
I

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
I think the appeal is limited by default because they have a paid gateway.

Among other drawbacks.

I feel like they will beat Wii U definitely, because users from both the console gaming space and the handheld space will want one.

How many of those two groups want the unit is another thing entirely.

I can see it surpassing Wii U numbers fairly reasonably and even gamecube i think they will pass..but anything past 25 million is a complete unknown to me.

My default feeling is that this going to pick up a portion of the Japanese Nintendo fanbase and the American fanbase and apart of europe....i don't think Switch has what it takes to get to current 3DS numbers even all combined...

I guess i'd say the Switch will get to 35 or 40 million before tapering off, and this is around 5 years timeframe

Wheatly said:
Eh I don't get the doom and gloom in here.

We have Zelda, Mario, XB 2 (maybe) coming out this year, which are much more attractive heavy hitters than what Xbone and PS4 offered during their first year.

I guess the library is going to be a problem if its ones only gaming device, but I don't imagine it will be for most.
Click to expand...

Switch is going up against the fully matured libraries of those devices.

Sony has more heavy hitting games coming out in Q1 alone on their platform than Switch is for this whole year. That's an issue

When competing for people's time, its not enough to have 2 or 3 choice games to pay for 6 months.

Zelda and Mario alone for this whole year is a JOKE. They can't even confirm Xenoblade 2 for sure for this year
 
T

TreasureHunterG

Banned
People predicting Wii U level are being silly. Nintendo now is obligated to bring all their major guns to this machine, so we'll have mainline Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Kirby and other portable franchises exclusively to it. Other major japanese 3rd-party hits like Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter and Youkai Watch will probably make it's way as well. The split of support between home consoles and portables, something that plagued Nintendo home consoles for generations, is no more.

It's very plausible this might reach GCN numbers or better given those circumstances.
 
O

Otakumegane

Member
mazpratim said:
I feel like people are underestimating the Japanese market for this
Click to expand...

Even if it manages to have complete control over that market, the Switch won't be hitting more than 20 million lifetime. I have no doubt in my mind that it'll sell less than 3DS lifetime, due to a variety of factors which include

-Lack of Pocketability
-Mobile getting stronger
-Decrease in Japanese software support as companies 1. Transition to full mobile, 2. Aim increasingly towards international sales and thus PC/PS4/Xbox due to the chokehold of mobile on traditional markets, compounded by the increasing costs of game development which Japanese companies especially are ill-equipped for.

In regards to the third point, I think Capcom's next move with Monster Hunter is going to be something to keep a very close eye on.
 
S

Sean

Banned
Wheatly said:
Eh I don't get the doom and gloom in here.

We have Zelda, Mario, XB 2 (maybe) coming out this year, which are much more attractive heavy hitters than what Xbone and PS4 offered during their first year.

I guess the library is going to be a problem if its ones only gaming device, but I don't imagine it will be for most.
Click to expand...

The big difference is that PS4 and Xbone have the full support of third parties which makes up for the droughts between major exclusives. Switch does not have that luxury and is going to rely almost entirely on Nintendo first party efforts.

I think most people are going to be waiting 8-9 months between Zelda (which is also a Wii U title) and Mario Odyssey.
 
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