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March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th
gundamkyoukai
Member
[NSW] 869K
[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 175K
First time trying my hand at this.
In sales thread all the time so i say i will give it a go.
[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 175K
First time trying my hand at this.
In sales thread all the time so i say i will give it a go.
MatPiscatella
Member
Erm, thinking you won't need a lot of help for March.
Everyone wins!
Yeah! By platform charts only get really meaningful past 10 in Nov/Dec., so that's great. Hope maybe those can be increased by Nov/Dec, too, but this is great news. Thanks!
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Chobel
Member
hanspampel
Banned
wrong.jpg
it's
1. Switch
2. Ps4
3. Xbox One
never thought we would get this kind of change and improvement that quick
very much appreciated, mat
so here is my bit of improvement proposal:
i do understand we don't get hard numbers for several reasons. and i'm also one of the few, who is fine with that.
what i would really like is some percentage tibits
probably still revenue based, but some quotes like the #1 game accounted for XX% of the Top 20 revenue or total dollar spend on Software.
top 3 made up XX%
4-10 made up XX%
that would give us at least a rough picture about the difference in sales performance for the placements
every and each individual titel would be the best, but i'm not sure if the NPD Group or the publisher would be okay with that on a regular base
Primethius
Banned
[NSW] 650K
[PS4] 325K
[XB1] 190K
Last month makes it seem like PS4 will continue to be slightly down YoY while XB1 is losing much of the momentum of the Slim that it had. Switch should do pretty nicely but it's all dependent on stock.
--
The success of Switch and PS4s continued dominance makes MS's focus on a premium, enthusiast aimed console this fall seem hilariously mistimed. In a year where the competition has gotten even stronger with a successful console from Nintendo, MS is pushing a product aimed largely at their core audience.
It seems Sony and Nintendo are competing for a variety of markets and submarkets at large and MS is focused on retaining their own code base.
It's just odd to see.
[PS4] 325K
[XB1] 190K
Last month makes it seem like PS4 will continue to be slightly down YoY while XB1 is losing much of the momentum of the Slim that it had. Switch should do pretty nicely but it's all dependent on stock.
--
The success of Switch and PS4s continued dominance makes MS's focus on a premium, enthusiast aimed console this fall seem hilariously mistimed. In a year where the competition has gotten even stronger with a successful console from Nintendo, MS is pushing a product aimed largely at their core audience.
It seems Sony and Nintendo are competing for a variety of markets and submarkets at large and MS is focused on retaining their own code base.
It's just odd to see.
Yea Scorpio is a very impressive piece of tech, but if that thing is over $400 you can kiss it goodbye imo.
It's impressive tech and I don't want to downplay that. But after this reveal. I'm on twitter and of course this is anecdotal but some of the people I follow that use the XB1 as their primary system aren't really gung ho about this. They just retweeted the news and that's it.
MS is really going to have to bring it on the games front at E3 and that remains to be seen.
Completely agree with you about Switch and PS4. PS4 more so. Because at the end of the day. At the start of the year PS4 users have had Yakuza, N: Automata, Horizon, Gravity Rush, Persona, Kindlgdom hearts and that's just exclusives.
SneakersSO
Member
It's not just that its odd - if there is any big takeaway from the market this year, its that its software starved. MS just needs more software, top to bottom, from 1st party to 3rd parties. It's like the market is saying its starving to death, and MS' solution is to sell you a brand new car.
MatPiscatella
Member
Yep, especially in the big games that tend to be disc based. March has been solid, but the last few years, especially last holiday, offered quite limited software selection when compared to historical levels. It's not just an MS problem.
271 games came out on disc last year. In 2010 that number was 742. If we could get to around 350 games a year I think the software market could thrive.
Not just MS. All the first parties, really, to different extents. Problem is that better specs require more dev spend. Dev spend is already almost prohibitively high and very risky. Only way to get around that for 3rd parties is to make Games as a Service games that can generate significant MTX/DLC spend.
Games like that cost even more, and carry far more risk.
It's a very difficult spiral.
People keep demanding better and better specs. Arguments all over the internet about specs. Specs specs specs. But this arms race for specs has a negative impact on the breadth and depth of software that is made (at least on the big game side, those games that generate mass market sales) due to risk around development investment.
But this iterative HW market is the world we're in, guess we'll see where it takes us.
This is an interesting idea. I'm thinking it'd have to be more of a block ie "The top 5 titles accounted for X% of total spend, up/down Y points vs YA" or something like that, but let me ask around and see what some other folk think.
Small steps. But steps. Working on other stuff.
Unknown?
Member
I wouldn't say it's even their core audience. It's at a fraction of their core audience just like the Pro was for PS4. PS4 is likely to be impulse buy territory this holiday with a strong line up. MS's insistence on only having exclusives at the end of the year is definitely hurting them too so while they may make a splash with some games, most will still see past their "best XBox lineup ever" nonsense.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I can see the Scorpio putting more wind behind the Xbox sails. Coupled with MS' biggest titles releasing during that period, and big third party games launching, Xbox will do fine this holiday.
However, it'll be just like what is happening now afterward. They'll lose all that momentum and there will be a void until the next holiday season. As mentioned above, there needs to be more software releasing that attracts people to the console. Especially during this period of the year.
However, it'll be just like what is happening now afterward. They'll lose all that momentum and there will be a void until the next holiday season. As mentioned above, there needs to be more software releasing that attracts people to the console. Especially during this period of the year.
Not exactly~ certainly not if you paid close attention to how they've carried themselves from 2014 and onward.
Phil Spencer and the rest of the Xbox team began tripling down on a specific type of gamer that's very loyal their brand, fanning the 'Us vs them rah rah', 'best year of Xbox rah rah' chest thumping to foster a particular identity. It's why TimDog gets so much focus and attention from Phil and I'm not even ragging on the man here. I truly believe Phil is fully conscious what he's doing when he props up TimDog whilst the latter goes after anybody who disagrees with him.
Basically, they've given up on attracting new customers through either varied software (Fable Legends, Phantom Dust, Scalebound) or through ease of entry via pricepoint or making headway in foreign markets, etc etc. They know who they are now.
Now It's about the hardcore Xbox players. The ones that buy Forza/Halo/Gears every time without fail. That core is furious at you for letting the competition wave the 'best graphics' card so you give them a more powerful console to placate them, give them BC so they never jump ship--anything to keep them engaged with the ecosystem so you are guaranteed a certain number of Xbox live subscriptions and REQ packs. Grab that very specific audience by the throat and you never let go.
And I say that 100% with no snark at all.
DEFINITELY wish more people would think this way instead of the current way which I sort of feel like is the fault of gamers being so eager for new stuff trying to keep up with the "PC master race" and all that jazz
SneakersSO
Member
I absolutely agree that this focus on specs & making the best use of them has turned the industry into a downward spiral, but I think the success of some of the software titles released this year is going to be a nice wakeup call to some of the other publishers.
Sony has launched several IP this generation to various degrees of success on the backs of controlled budgeting & a growing base willing to purchase non-traditional titles. Seeing companies like Capcom, SE, and Atlus report success on some of their non-traditional games with lowered break-even points is a great sign for the industry, and Sony & Nintendo (to a lesser extent) have benefitted from heaving these AA/B-tier games release on their platform.
I brought up MS specifically because they are seemingly putting forth very little to no effort to court developers from a region (JP) who has began to help in the software release department.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Agreed.
I might not like it but it makes sense from MS perspective. They won't be able to considerably expand their base so they seek to make the most of what they have.
Dash_Riprock
Member
I agree with this. And the problem with it is, like Nintendo, their hardcore base is going to shrink with each passing generation with no new blood to repopulate. I think MS knows this, however, hence their push of Play Anywhere.
Yeah, the recent Gamespot article seems to go that way in terms of culture.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/how-the-xbox-ones-troubled-launch-helped-create-a-/1100-6448977/
DriftingSpirit
Member
I also find it interesting that Scorpio is supposed to "win the developers back".
Unknown?
Member
Ummm if that's a statement from MS then they are truly delusional. Tell me it's not!
It is.
PR speak unless they are talking about : " Scorpio will allow devs to make their games look better than ever" .
Yea i didn't get that statement. I think it's just PR speak that's there to make people feel good. Devs and the hardcore consumer.
Because outside of JP devs. I don't really know who they've lost? and it's not like the system is hard to develop for.
Shin-Ra
Junior Member
If they knew who they (and their fans) are now, I don't think they'd continue removing the hardware and OS features those hardcore fans supported so vocally.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
other than maybe some small japanese devs which aren't that many left, truth be told, who did they lose, honestly?
DriftingSpirit
Member
http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/04...in-developers-back-to-xbox-after-ps4s-success
This is what was said. It is confounding to me. I first thought they meant more third party content (third party exclusives) but they just seem to be talking about having the best version of games and implying how that will aid them.
It is pretty obvious they will be there to make the best version of multiplats. Also, it seems like this is a counter to what happened at the beginning of the gen with the difference between PS4/X1 games. It is like they want to shift that narrative but it is done and over with. PS4 has already benefited from that. Having the most powerful console isn't going to change things that much now going into the fourth year of these consoles.
http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/04...in-developers-back-to-xbox-after-ps4s-success
To win back developers back you have to be the best selling one.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Maybe they mean all the third party marketing deals they lost this gen? lol
slavesnyder
Member
Xbox will have the best looking versions of 3rd party.
It's irrelevant for PR that this is only true for the niche high end console version.
It's irrelevant for PR that this is only true for the niche high end console version.
Prototype Viktor
Member
[NSW] 616K
[PS4] 397K
[XB1] 164K
[PS4] 397K
[XB1] 164K
hanspampel
Banned
No. That would be the management of the publisher.
For developer you need exactly was Ms is doing with Scorpio. A console that is no pain in the ass. Doing most of the work for you. Easy to develop for and port to. Being a console your excited about to work on.
Unless you talk about independent developer. In that case making money on the platform is also on of the most important aspects and was often mentioned by Phil Spencer, too
BlackBuzzard
Banned
You sound like Microsoft PR.
Bitch Pudding
Member
[NSFW] 800K
[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 200K
[PS4] 300K
[XB1] 200K
unapersson
Member
But they still need to develop for the original Xbox One, so the ease of development on the Scorpio will still have that as an aside, unless the tools have improved to such an extent that a game targeted at the Scorpio can easily be downsized for the Xbox One.
archnemesis
Member
[NSW] 715K
[PS4] 344K
[XB1] 196K
[PS4] 344K
[XB1] 196K
slavesnyder
Member
So that's what they meant with the watercooler.
Wow I didn't know anyone actually cared what nerds on the internet think!
Darth Smurf X
Member
This is probably what they actually meant. Losing CoD, Battlefront, Destiny and others really hurt them, especially since shooters were their bread and butter in the 360 days.
Since this is the nearest thing to a US sales thread before the actual NPD March thread...
Amazon.com Top 100 watch: Switch edition (no accessories included, console + games only*)
As of April 7th, 2017 - 13:53 GMT
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 2nd
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6th
Nintendo Switch Grey - 7th | sold out
LEGO City Undercover - 40th | Xbox One - 401st | PS4 - 505th
Nintendo Switch Neon - 48th | sold out
1-2 Switch - 57th | only 3 left in stock
Ultra Street Fighter II - 80th
Super Mario Odyssey - 82nd
Super Bomberman R - 94th
*Rime not included due to its ranking being result of a pricing error
Bonus 1st
Puyo Puyo Tetris
Switch - 120th
PS4 - 816th
Bonus 2 (for fun and lols)
Cars 3
Switch - 1,023rd
Wii U - 1,261st
PS4 - 4,923rd
Xbox One - 5,643rd
Amazon.com Top 100 watch: Switch edition (no accessories included, console + games only*)
As of April 7th, 2017 - 13:53 GMT
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 2nd
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6th
Nintendo Switch Grey - 7th | sold out
LEGO City Undercover - 40th | Xbox One - 401st | PS4 - 505th
Nintendo Switch Neon - 48th | sold out
1-2 Switch - 57th | only 3 left in stock
Ultra Street Fighter II - 80th
Super Mario Odyssey - 82nd
Super Bomberman R - 94th
*Rime not included due to its ranking being result of a pricing error
Bonus 1st
Puyo Puyo Tetris
Switch - 120th
PS4 - 816th
Bonus 2 (for fun and lols)
Cars 3
Switch - 1,023rd
Wii U - 1,261st
PS4 - 4,923rd
Xbox One - 5,643rd
Kazuo Hirai
I really want everyone to know how much more Titanfall 2 sold than Nioh. It was a staggering amount.
If you want to know more about Amazon Top-seller, there is a monthly-thread at vg**chartz forum which track it everyday