HAL_Laboratory said:
That said, how would you compare the pre-launch hype of Gamecube (world-wide) to the Wii?
Since I was still "lapsed", I despised the Gamecube (as well as the PS2). Nothing about it intrigued me or my friends (also lapsed gamers). The generation before, some bought the PS1 and got burned on that. The most interesting console, to us, was the Xbox. We thought the idea of the hard drive and all would make console gaming exciting again! Nope. Those I knew who picked up Xboxes just ended up modding it so they can play 8 bit and 16 bit games. :lol
One thing to remember also was that the Gamecube (and Xbox) launch (in America) came a couple months after 9/11. Gaming was not in my thoughts. Instead, it was, "Will my friends in the military be sent to die?" The economy, then, was much more sluggish (and 9/11 just made the situation worse).
How much better (or worse) is Nintendo's position now VS that era?
Most gamers are piss poor business analysts. Those who are pointing out that Nintendo fans saying similar things of GC are trying to find silly correlations to rest their fanboy emotions. They don't realize that Nintendo of today is very different from the Nintendo of GC. Even the business strategies are radically different. There is a reason why Nintendo's stock is flying and why business mags are suddenly becoming extremely interested in the Wii.
Nintendo was a very confused company at the Gamecube launch. It knew costs were beginning to go out of control since the N64 era but they were still trying to compete technologically with the others systems (such as the PS2).
During the Gamecube era, Nintendo took a nap, restructured their company, and went through a period of analysis (especially of the PS2's success). Finally, Nintendo realized that the game library matters more than the hardware. This is why the Wii is launching with 30 titles instead of, like, six.
Nintendo defines "untraditional gamers" in two ways (for evidence, look at Iwata's speech at E3 2006 Conference): first, the people who have never played video games before (non-gamer) and, second, the people who once played games but got tired of it (lapsed gamers). The people who jump on to the Wii first, just as what occurred with the DS, will be lapsed gamers. They are used to 'gaming' and can easily jump back in.
Lapsed gamers are not a uniform group. Some (which I fit in) are of the picky variety and don't have the time or patience to meander through large 3d arenas. But many lapsed gamers are the girl gamers who got left behind, not only due to the funky controllers, but by the machoism of game companies from the endless parade of 'realistic' sports games, to 'realistic' racing games, to GTA, to Halo, to God of War.
I've notice most people on GAF tend to think of lapsed gamers as some type of 'weak sauce' gamer who gets completely 'confused' at the controller. Nothing could be further from the truth.
If you read a book, and before getting to the 'action', the author spends chapters about the backstory, of the characters, of the environment, and all that, what happens? While some plow ahead with the story and praise how 'rich' it is, many people read it and say, "I am bored! I do not have the time or patience to go through this crap to get to the story. This author does not know how to tell a story." This is exactly how gamers became lapsed in the first place. In order to get to the game and to the 'good parts', MUCH more time was required to learn buttons, to go through stupid cinema movies so the game developer can pretend he is a movie director, and wade through ridiculous dialog. Most lapsed gamers were raised on arcade games. They aren't 'weak-sauce', they are bored. They don't find the controller 'complex', they find it stupid and obtuse. Lapsed gamers get bored easily so they are probably the pickiest gamer of all- far more than the hardcore player (who tends to be more open minded).
Lapsed gamers have been stuck on computers for some time now (just as casual gamers are with those web games). They have been waiting for a console like the Wii for some time now.
(I know GAF won't believe me so try this. Find a lapsed gamer who used to love gaming and describe the Wii to them including the Virtual Console. I guarantee you the person's eyes will begin to brighten.) Most of the 'untraditional' people who are getting a Wii at launch are those who haven't bought a game console in over a decade.
And finally, where do you see Wii a year from now, as opposed to Gamecube's 1st year.
Hardware production problems aren't as big as issue as software production problems. Gamecube and N64 had software production issues. The Wii will not have this issue. Even if there are hiccups in the software release rate, the Virtual Console smooths it out.
Wii will not only become market leader but has the potential to become a social phenomenon in some countries.
Xbox 360 will become the Gamecube of this generation who might have a couple of 'AAA' games (like Halo 3) but the game library will be unappealing to most people. Let us not forget that the first Xbox sold not much more than the Gamecube and Xbox 360 has not broken that sales pattern yet.
PS3 will sell rapidly at first to game enthusiasts but sales will stall (whereas Wii sales will increase as its software hits new demographics ala NES or DS). The big issue with PS3 is that Sony will be unable to bring down the price.
Out of the three console companies, Nintendo has it the easiest to lower the price (take out Wii Sports and poof, $200. Since Nintendo is making profit, if they decided to go for a loss they could easily mark their system down). Microsoft then comes next as the costs are rapidly decreasing and console is already a year old. Sony is stuck with that Blu-Ray licensing and other parts that won't easily come down in price.
PS3 will
always remain hundreds of dollars more expensive than its competitors. Its library will carry the system but in the end, we are seeing another PSP type performance.
