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Harry Potter [Mafia] |OT| “Yer a werewolf, ‘Arry”

D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Secret of the Iller Killer 2: the Miller Thriller.

Nobody's vanilla!
 
K

Kawl_USC

Member
Lone_Prodigy said:
Was pretty early on the Hyper bandwagon and has been fairly pro-town, even if he did want me gone yesterday. :p

He hasn't been vetted by anyone, but I feel relatively confident in putting him in the "confirmed town" section.



I hope you claim as the third Miller.
Click to expand...

We can also cross verify the people who have been punished with nights all scum action (poison, role block, switch (?), second kill (?) ) as cleared. I think flame being role blocked and all actions occurring is a soft clear on him.
 
L

Lone_Prodigy

Member
roytheone said:
Well, yeah, we need to basically ignore everything pandas says because he may try to create some WIFOY stuff, but there are still topics to discuss like what to do with Gorlak. He didn't take pandas his offer and did block flame, but he could decide to switch sides later. A neutral in the end game is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS (see Sorian in nx) and we now have at least two days we need to lynch clear scum. That could become a problem.
Click to expand...

Is Gorlak a survivor? If he is, we can strike a deal with him to leave him alone in exchange for blocking scum. Otherwise he won't operate in our best interests since town has a numbers advantage so he'll block us instead.
 
K

Kawl_USC

Member
Gorlak said:
Nah, I'll survive till the end and win, don't worry. It's more important to prove my intention to help town right now. I'll see what I can do. The claimed town roles will not be touched by me. Maybe I'll block Crab? Or will I not? Only time will tell.

Oh yeah a vote:

vote: flatearthpandas
Click to expand...

Here claims he is. And he blocked a person from the list I mentioned. I'll wait for him to chime in but he seems to be playing ball for now.
 
E

Enker

Member
roytheone said:
I agree that getting rid of the second kill each night should be our main priority, since that creates a war of attrition that is in our disadvantage. I am leaning to lynching crab first, but if there is any indication pandas is the poisoner we need to kill him first.

Btw, enker, you didn't have a single vote out yesterday?
Click to expand...

That is unfortunately correct. I was leaning FEP, but given the ambiguity when nobody was saying much of anything before Monday (when I am never on), didn’t feel comfortable laying down a vote.

Are we at the point where I should name claim to reduce the unknowns left for us to analyze?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Enker said:
That is unfortunately correct. I was leaning FEP, but given the ambiguity when nobody was saying much of anything before Monday (when I am never on), didn’t feel comfortable laying down a vote.

Are we at the point where I should name claim to reduce the unknowns left for us to analyze?
Click to expand...

Everyone should claim at this point.
 
K

Kalor

Member
I am all in support for name claims. Christina will be able to help out in this process provided they wait until everyone claims.
 
R

roytheone

Member
Lone_Prodigy said:
Is Gorlak a survivor? If he is, we can strike a deal with him to leave him alone in exchange for blocking scum. Otherwise he won't operate in our best interests since town has a numbers advantage so he'll block us instead.
Click to expand...

I asked him that yesterday. He didn't answer and after twe and bsp flips showed no survivor win condition, I am starting to doubt it. Which is problematic, since if we get close to winning and he still has a lot of people to brand, he will purposely work against us winning until he brands everyone.
 
R

roytheone

Member
Kawl_USC said:
Interested in the name claims of Roy, Flame, Exodus, and Matt. Or wait was it Matt that claimed Seamus?
Click to expand...

Since we are with so few unknowns and scum has a lot of targets already:

I am kingsley shacklebolt

With both Dumbledore and moody dead I am now the leader of the order of the Phoenix.
 
K

Kalor

Member
Here's the current list of names then:

01 [m] MagnumBoy20xx - ??? (Poisoned)
02 [m] Kawl_USC - Town (Poisoned)
03 [m] TheExodu5 - ???
04 [m] Flatearthpandas - ??? (Scum)
05 [m] Gorlak - Umbridge
06 [m] Flame_AC - ???
07 [-] Enker - Ginny
08 [m] Matt Attack - ???
09 [m] Crab - Filch?
10 [m] Kalor - Ron
11 [m] Lord of Castamere - Dobby?
12 [m] Christina Mackenzie - Hermione
13 [m] Lone_Prodigy - Sirius
14 [m] roytheone - Kingsley?

So Matt, Flame, Exodu5 and Magnum just need to name claim now. Of that group Magnum said he would wait to last, either to catch out scum or to make sure that he doesn't contradict anyone else.
 
L

Lone_Prodigy

Member
roytheone said:
I asked him that yesterday. He didn't answer and after twe and bsp flips showed no survivor win condition, I am starting to doubt it. Which is problematic, since if we get close to winning and he still has a lot of people to brand, he will purposely work against us winning until he brands everyone.
Click to expand...

Well he should know that he is #3 on our lynch list after Pandas and Crab. And since there's a good chance we'll get our poisoner too, with one fewer death a night it'll be harder to pick us off.
 
T

TheExodu5

Banned
Alright, caught up. Not so keen on role claiming, to be honest.

Sorry for the last day. I read too strongly into the flavor. I honestly didn't think Rita's character would be trustworthy at all.

That being said, panda's reveal says one thing to me: scum are trying to put the heat on him. The most obvious explanation to me is that they want the heat off Crab, and want to keep him alive one more night. For that reason, I think we should lynch Crab today.
 
K

Kawl_USC

Member
I really think they used FEP because they knew he was doa today after Rita flipped. They wanted to recruit Gorlak so they used their outed scum. I don't think it was about diverting heat but using an outer player to their advantage.
 
R

roytheone

Member
We probably could have done this better, like pick a time every unknown is online and have us all claim at the exact same time. Now scum can just wait and see which names they need to avoid.

(but to be honest, scum has probably got fake names anyway so that wouldn't have mattered)

Anyway, off to bed.
 
G

Gorlak

Banned
I'm no survivor, that was said to calm your doubts.

Day 6: We have 14 left. 4 marked (3 + me)
We lynch Crab. Christina + Kawl die.
Day 7: 11 left. 5 marked.
We lynch FPE. Town PR (LoC, LP?) + Magnum die.
Day 8: 8 left. 6 marked.

By Day 8 we have 6 out of 8 people included in my win condition.

Will you people go out of your way to make sure I'll win the game? Look at NV, it is possible to actively let the neutral win by town's side. It's a longshot, because several requirements are needed for this situation.

I) I survive
II) The punished survive
III) I'm not blocked at any night
IV) We need a mislynch at Day 8

Town and Scum basically have to "allow" me to win. I don't see scum playing along so fuck it:

Flame_AC is the last scum.

FPE, Crab and Flame - let's finish this game.
 
G

Gorlak

Banned
Gorlak said:
FPE, Crab and Flame - let's finish this game.
Click to expand...

About the order of the votes:

I'd go with FPE first, she's most likely the Poisoner.
Flame is the Blocker
And Crab is unlikely to be the poisoner because he visited Swamped N1 (did the kill, while Sawneeks (?) was poisoned at the same time)
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
Gorlak, I'm disappointed. But naturally you would realize that we also have more useful targets to kill than an uncooperative neutral. But never let it be said that the Death Eaters are not spiteful. We will kill your marks and ensure you lose the game if you don't cooperate. Frankly, while we have better targets for a kill, we may not have better targets for a block much longer and it may actually be more fun to keep you around impotent and doomed to lose than to kill you. On the other hand, we're happy to do our best to help you achieve a win if you cooperate. We are confident of a win regardless. You can make it quicker, or you can drag it out. Everyone likes to think of themselves as a good guy, but in this case that only buys you an L. Now, until I give you a target for tonight, be a doll and confirm your list of marked players. Thanks.



On a more positive note, I forgot I have a holiday party after work so my read list may not come until morning.
 
R

roytheone

Member
Gorlak said:
I'm no survivor, that was said to calm your doubts.

Day 6: We have 14 left. 4 marked (3 + me)
We lynch Crab. Christina + Kawl die.
Day 7: 11 left. 5 marked.
We lynch FPE. Town PR (LoC, LP?) + Magnum die.
Day 8: 8 left. 6 marked.

By Day 8 we have 6 out of 8 people included in my win condition.

Will you people go out of your way to make sure I'll win the game? Look at NV, it is possible to actively let the neutral win by town's side. It's a longshot, because several requirements are needed for this situation.

I) I survive
II) The punished survive
III) I'm not blocked at any night
IV) We need a mislynch at Day 8

Town and Scum basically have to "allow" me to win. I don't see scum playing along so fuck it:

Flame_AC is the last scum.

FPE, Crab and Flame - let's finish this game.
Click to expand...

I have no problems with winning alongside you Gorlak (except for the fact that dogs > cats ;), but I see you conveniently left out two requirements that are needed for that situation:

V) We need to not find and destroy all the horcrux before you achieve your win condition. (assuming the horcrux are indeed an alternative town in condition)

VI) You need to not block the scum killer, since that would leave more people alive and throws off your math.

Those points can become problems, since it is in your interest to prevent us from finding/destroying horcruxes and it is in your interest that scum keeps on getting two kills each night. Both of these things are directly opposite our interests. Then there is point II) and point III), which scum could easily use to force you to pick their side in the end game. So while I am not apposed to winning alongside you, I do see a lot of potential issues that go along with that, and things I would rather not risk just to give a neutral the chance to win.

You do make two good points though:

- Flame_AC being the scum blocker: Crab says he got dementor role blocked, which is extremely unlikely to me since that is almost assuredly a scum power and Crab himself is scum. However, everyone has posted and nobody else has come forward as dementor blocked. This could mean that Flame_AC is the dementor roleblocker, and that when scum realized he got punished by you, there not being any block will make it pretty clear that flame is scum, so they have Crab fake claim dementor blocked to prevent that.

-Crab can't be the poisoner, since he visited swamped N1 but someone else still got poisoned. That is true, and while it doesn't mean that pandas is the poisoner for sure, it is more likely than Crab being the poisoner. So I will probably vote for pandas today. However, we should be careful with our votes, CM and kawl haven't shared their night results with us yet, and it is possible both of them will die tonight, so scum could try to turbo to end the day and prevent them from sharing their information.
 
R

roytheone

Member
Christina Mackenzie said:
Sorry, guys, Flame is not the blocker. I was blocked last night. No investigations from me. I didn't post earlier cause I was wondering what Crab was trying to pull by saying he was role blocked.

Also Death Eaters can use their special commands and kill the same night. Refer to Hyper's role.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187302255&postcount=2474
Click to expand...

Ok, so that indeed makes it impossible for Flame to be the dementor role blocker. And I rechecked hyper his role PM and he indeed could do his power and kill on the same night. Still, I doubt scum would risk such a powerful role like a poisoner by using it to do the kill, it doubles the chances of him being discovered. So I still think Crab is likely not the poisoner.
 
M

Matt Attack

Member
Sorry about that, I'm here. I fell asleep as soon as I got home yesterday so I wasn't able to write up a post. FEP is probably who we should lynch today so we can get whatever his ability is out of the way. Also, it looks like we've pretty much all name claimed, so no point in holding back anymore- my name is Dean Thomas.
 
C

Christina Mackenzie

Member
Just waiting on MagnumBoy20xx.

01 Retroid - Harry Potter [DEAD]
02 MagnumBoy20xx - ?
03 Kawl_USC - Luna Lovegood [confirmed]
04 Rynam - Alastor Moody [DEAD]
05 TheExodu5 - Sybill Trelawny
06 Swamped - Hannah Abbott [DEAD]
07 flatearthpandas - ?
08 bananaspaceprincess - Rita Skeeter [DEAD]
09 TheWorthyEdge - Mundungus Fletcher [DEAD]
10 Gorlak - Dolores Umbridge
11 Hyperactivity - Bellatrix Lestrange [DEAD]
12 Flame_AC - Seamus Finnigan
13 Enker - Ginny Weasley
14 TheAwesomePossum - Blaise Zabini [EJECTED]
15 Burbeting - Severus Snape [DEAD]
16 Matt Attack - Dean Thomas
17 Rats Off To Ya - Remus Lupin [DEAD]
18 Crab - Argus Filch
19 kingkitty - Voldemort [DEAD]
20 Blargonaut - Albus Dumbledore [DEAD]
21 Kalor - Ron Weasley [confirmed]
22 TheGoddamn - Fred Weasley [DEAD]
23 Lord of Castamere - Dobby
24 Christina Mackenzie - Hermione Granger [confirmed]
25 Lone_Prodigy - Sirius Black [confirmed]
26 roytheone - Kingsley Shacklebolt
27 Miracle - George Weasley [DEAD]
28 Sawneeks - Sorting Hat [DEAD]
 
C

Christina Mackenzie

Member
07 flatearthpandas - ?

05 TheExodu5 - Sybill Trelawny
13 Enker - Ginny Weasley
16 Matt Attack - Dean Thomas
18 Crab - Argus Filch
23 Lord of Castamere - Dobby



02 MagnumBoy20xx - ?, poisoned, will die N7 and cleared by BSP
10 Gorlak - Dolores Umbridge, see no reason to doubt this
12 Flame_AC - Seamus Finnigan, was role-blocker by Gorlak N5, Hogwarts was still poisoned and role-blocked
26 roytheone - Kingsley Shacklebolt, was role-blocked by Gorlak N2, Hogwarts was still poisoned and role-blocked



03 Kawl_USC - Luna Lovegood [confirmed, will die N6]
21 Kalor - Ron Weasley [confirmed]
24 Christina Mackenzie - Hermione Granger [confirmed]
25 Lone_Prodigy - Sirius Black [confirmed]

Feel free to edit if any mistakes are made.
 
T

TheExodu5

Banned
So, one more to go? Where are you magnum?

In the meantime, I'm putting in my vote. I don't think we should lynch pandas. He gave up easily to take the heat off someone else, and I believe that person to be Crab.

Vote:Crab
 
M

Matt Attack

Member
TheExodu5 said:
So, one more to go? Where are you magnum?

In the meantime, I'm putting in my vote. I don't think we should lynch pandas. He gave up easily to take the heat off someone else, and I believe that person to be Crab.

Vote:Crab
Click to expand...

It's more likely that he gave up because he knew he would be outed once BSP was lynched. If he thought there was any chance he could convince us he wasn't scum, he wouldn't have given in. He was also able to give the Death Eater's proposal to Gorlak this way. As it stands I'm in the club that thinks we can't afford to let a confirmed scum live, not when we've got an opportunity to get rid of one of their night abilities. Even if you're 90% sure Crab is scum, you can't beat 100%.
 
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