i get and agree with some of the negativity surrounding the switch, but i think people lack perspective when they only look at the last thing and think that is only how the future will go. before the 8th gen started in earnest (3ds and vita were already out but nothing else), this thread happened:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769
i was pretty off when it came to the overall rankings (it is, in fact, sony > nintendo > microsoft), but i think general reasonings were a big closer to reality. the 3ds became the new psp, not the wii u, and sony will not be following up the ps vita it seems. microsoft's hubris got the best of them big-time, which is something i don't think anyone could have foreseen in 2012.
but you'll see people basically pretty sure of nintendo's success, even if it doesn't exactly mean the wii, and people pretty down on sony (they had just launched the ps vita). these systems don't belong to a set of patterns and they don't exist in a vacuum. each generation there are different factors that lead to the results we see at the end of the generation. in the 8th gen, there were internal fuckups for all three manufacturers (sony not making an audience for ps vita, nintendo with everything regarding the wii u and not taking the 3ds seriously initially, and microsoft thinking their fanbase was set like nintendo had and figuring they could take a bunch of rubes for all they were worth). there were also a lot of external factors that lead to there being such a huge decline over the previous two generations (8th gen: ~260m hardware/~2.2b software, 7th gen: 520m hardware/~4b software, 6th gen: 292m+ hardware/~2.4b software), that found each respective platform in their own space.
so when we get to the switch, i think it's important to look at the factors surrounding the release of the platform and its predecessors in order to more accurately estimate its trajectory. i think that console launches -
any console launch - from this point on will be difficult. there are fewer and fewer people seeking out dedicated hardware, and i think the problem will be reaching out to a progressively smaller fanbase over time. nintendo is probably going to be able to secure that in japan if they can combine the best of the wii u (splatoon/pikmin), 3ds (dragon quest/monster hunter/2d mario/3d mario/mario kart/animal crossing/level-5), ps vita (minecraft/jrpgs/anime-branded games). it will probably do well in the west to keep the 3ds's fanbase and also appeal to parents with games they might be familair with. fortunately for nintendo, it lacks the main problems the wii u had at launch: awareness, excitement, and desirability of its hardware. the main idea of the switch is instantly appealing to a lot of people, which is something that didn't happen with the wii u. as long as big games start hitting and hit often, which appears to be the case at least in japan, i think it will do fine.
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