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The Trump Effect: Nearly 25% of Republicans under 30 became Democrats since 2015

E

Escape Goat

Member
- People usually don't change their affiliation after they've chosen one
- Democrats and Republicans normally have a 10% defection rate
- Trump seems to be the driving force behind these defections (in both directions)
- 57% GOP strongly disagree with Trump, 32% of Dems approve
- Young Republicans are far more likely to switch parties than older Republicans or Democrats of any
age.
- Under 30 years old:
1) 23% of Republicans abandoned their party between 2015 and 2017.
2) 21% of Republicans left but returned by 2017
3) 50% remained loyal to the GOP
- The less engaged people are politically the more likely they are to switch affiliation



giphyf8k9j.gif

http://time.com/4786694/donald-trump-republican-party-switch-poll/
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
This is pretty significant because most research suggests people develop one particular political consciousness quite early in their lives and then stick with it - other, ideological position is relatively inelastic and not amenable to change. Changes in the winning party tend to occur because either the party shifts its position to reflect the fixed idelogical position of the electorate, or the party succeeds in mobilizing voters who previously agreed with it but hadn't previously voted for it. If this remains consistent and the epochal event for this generation is a more liberal position, then either you'd expect in the future a long period of Democratic hegemony or a moderation of the Republican Party to restore compeitiveness.
 
B

Barrylocke

Member
- The less engaged people are politically the more likely they are to switch affiliation
Click to expand...

This last bit surprised me. I'd imagine that someone more engaged would be more willing to switch by hearing about all the various stuff going on from different news sources. Maybe being more engaged just translates to watching more Fox News and such?
 
F

Fritz

Member
Another thing I do not understand: How short seighted must Republicans be for gathering behind Trump. The damage to the party in the mid/long run will be disastrous.
 
S

Snaku

Banned
My parents have been Republican their entire lives. They've both sworn they will only vote Democrat for the rest of their lives.
 
E

Escape Goat

Member
Barrylocke said:
This last bit surprised me. I'd imagine that someone more engaged would be more willing to switch by hearing about all the various stuff going on from different news sources. Maybe being more engaged just translates to watching more Fox News and such?
Click to expand...

These are your low information voters. These are the people who abandoned Hilarious after the Comey fiasco.
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
Oersted said:
First post defeatism. I think we reached a new low
Click to expand...
He isn't wrong though. America has such a tertible perspective on what an individual vote means: that it is a form of self-expression over civil responsibility. This is how we get nonsense about politicians needing to earn their votes by perfectly alligning with your personal politics over concern for the greater good. Democrats snd liberals more broadly simply do not understand basic civics and I have no faith that they will ever take responsibility for ot. This way of thinking is taught to people way too young and is so pervasive in society.


That said, Trump might actually be unpopular enough to be a drag on the party, but we will be in the same place whenever we get a new face up there. Instant amnesia.
 
L

linkboy

Member
It happened to me.

I grew up in a hardcore conservative family and the thing that changed my views was joining the Air Force. During my 11 years (which is ending shortly), I got to travel to different countries and that's what changed my views (actually experiencing things beyond my small section of Northern California).
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
samn said:
and then in 2020 when people think 'oh of COURSE the Dems will win the presidency this time, so we'll vote republicans for congress to balance them out'
Click to expand...

Is this a joke? Most of the time when a President wins an election, their party makes gains since the majority of voters vote down ticket. It was very possible that if Hillary won the Dems would have taken the House, albeit by a very slim margin
 
O

Oersted

Member
airmangataosenai said:
He isn't wrong though. America has such a tertible perspective on what an individual vote means: that it is a form of self-expression over civil responsibility. This is how we get nonsense about politicians needing to earn their votes by perfectly alligning with your personal politics over concern for the greater good. Democrats snd liberals more broadly simply do not understand basic civics and I have no faith that they will ever take responsibility for ot. This way of thinking is taught to people way too young and is so pervasive in society.


That said, Trump might actually be unpopular enough to be a drag on the party, but we will be in the same place whenever we get a new face up there. Instant amnesia.
Click to expand...

I wonder, are you aware that you are part of the problem?
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
How can ANYONE be pessimistic at this news.

Even WORST case scenario where these democrats don't all vote in midterms, these Dems WILL be voting more as they get older. Everyone votes more as they get older.
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
Oersted said:
I wonder, are you aware that you are part of the problem?
Click to expand...
My point proven. Even people here buy into this insane religion.

You can vote your heart in the primaries, but if someone like Trump gains power because you sit out the election or vote for a non-viable third party you are culpable for the damage he does.
 
G

Garlador

Member
Personal take here.

I'm Republican, but Trump was so egregiously awful on every front that I very proudly voted for Hillary over him because while I may be a conservative, I'm not a blithering idiot.

I felt like an alien in Oklahoma as a result, since every last single district in the state went to Trump.

A lot of them down there correlate the GOP as "God's Party" and they value team loyalty over national good. As my mother said, "Trump may be awful, but Pence is a godly man. He can manage him", or my aunt who said "Trump's been forgiven by God for his past actions. Hillary's evil actions are yet to come."

It's futile and frustrating to bring logic, reason, and common sense into the discussions. The most progress I ever made was telling my mother "Trump is everything you raised me NOT to be and if I acted as he does, you'd be ashamed". She paused momentarily as she digested my words, then snapped out of it and responded, "but you'd still be better than Hillary if that were the case."

It's group-think on a state-wide level and it's incredibly scary.

NEVER underestimate how pervasive this mindset is. It may be a minority, but a minority opinion still put Trump into power.
 
Kite

Kite

Member
Makes sense, I know a few younger millennial types who were pro Trump essentially "for the lulz." They've grown up mostly remembering Obama, the boringly safe president who didn't accomplish enough. So they wanted someone who will "shake things up in Washington" well.. the lil fucks got what they want, scandals and cringe 24/7. A boring, safe and steady president would be really nice right now.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
Alexander DeLarge said:
They switched parties to vote for Bernie in the primaries, at least that's what EVERY single one of my Republican friends did in my state.
Click to expand...

I didn't even think of this and I wonder if there's anything to it.

My girlfriend and I were registered independents who switched to Dem so we could caucus for Bernie Sanders. Her brother was a registered Republican who switched for the same reason.

But we are also now "activated" and are seriously vested in the political process. It's our daily interest to promote progressive politics all over the country and do so through every available avenue.

In general, I would be worried that young people who got turned on to politics by Bernie Sanders might be less engaged today than they were in the primaries. But I am also a living example of the opposite.

While I'm sure it wasn't any one single thing or candidate that motivated Rs under thirty to switch, I hope that all the motivating factors are strong enough to keep them active.
 
O

Oersted

Member
airmangataosenai said:
My point proven. Even people here buy into this insane religion.

You can vote your heart in the primaries, but if someone like Trump gains power because you sit out the election or vote for a non-viable third party you are culpable for the damage he does.
Click to expand...

Dunbar offered instant defeatism and giving that pessimism is in our society confused with realism, he got immediately "he ain't wrong" high fives.

Thing is, it is utterly irrelevant if he is right or wrong. Get your ass on the streets, vote and dominate the conversation on the Internet. I do not think you are totally wrong that many liberals and democrats do not understand their duties, but you have to explain it to them. Change the narrative, change the outcome. Thats your duty.
 
S

SoRuffShoNuff

Member
Lord Frieza said:
Is this a joke? Most of the time when a President wins an election, their party makes gains since the majority of voters vote down ticket. It was very possible that if Hillary won the Dems would have taken the House, albeit by a very slim margin
Click to expand...

There was no chance at that due to the extremely gerrymandered districts.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
I'm a 31 (so a hair outside 30) year old registered republican, and even though I've stopped considering myself one for longer than this election and presidency, it has certainly pushed me even further left than I was (though I still consider myself a moderate/independent).
 
T

TWrecks310

Banned
Garlador said:
Personal take here.

I'm Republican, but Trump was so egregiously awful on every front that I very proudly voted for Hillary over him because while I may be a conservative, I'm not a blithering idiot.

I felt like an alien in Oklahoma as a result, since every last single district in the state went to Trump.

A lot of them down there correlate the GOP as "God's Party" and they value team loyalty over national good. As my mother said, "Trump may be awful, but Pence is a godly man. He can manage him", or my aunt who said "Trump's been forgiven by God for his past actions. Hillary's evil actions are yet to come."

It's futile and frustrating to bring logic, reason, and common sense into the discussions. The most progress I ever made was telling my mother "Trump is everything you raised me NOT to be and if I acted as he does, you'd be ashamed". She paused momentarily as she digested my words, then snapped out of it and responded, "but you'd still be better than Hillary if that were the case."

It's group-think on a state-wide level and it's incredibly scary.

NEVER underestimate how pervasive this mindset is. It may be a minority, but a minority opinion still put Trump into power.
Click to expand...

This shit seems so frustrating man, I feel sorry for you. I've had to deal with things similar to this because I live in a Republican county, but never on this level.
 
M

More_Badass

Member
linkboy said:
It happened to me.

I grew up in a hardcore conservative family and the thing that changed my views was joining the Air Force. During my 11 years (which is ending shortly), I got to travel to different countries and that's what changed my views (actually experiencing things beyond my small section of Northern California).
Click to expand...
I can attest to a similar shift. I grew up in a pretty conservative/Republican household (well, mainly Dad, mom doesn't talk politics). My dad is a pretty intelligent logical level-headed guy, the person you'd go to for advice and calm discussion, so why wouldn't he know what he was talking about?

I'm 24 now and my perspective didn't change till 2014, particularly thanks to GAF and the threads about the Ferguson protests. Watching the live streams, hearing the impassioned discussions by protesters with journalists, seeing the protests live and the disgusting stories about the police's actions, and then seeing Fox call them thugs and riots the next day was eye-opening. It changed everything for me

After trying to discuss that with my dad and him stubbornly doubling down on them all being police-hating lawless anarchists, I began reading other news sources, reading about other perspectives with an open mind. Again, GAF helped a lot with that, thanks to all the topics that would get discussed in OT.
 
Phoenix RISING

Phoenix RISING

Banned
Garlador said:
Personal take here.

I'm Republican, but Trump was so egregiously awful on every front that I very proudly voted for Hillary over him because while I may be a conservative, I'm not a blithering idiot.

I felt like an alien in Oklahoma as a result, since every last single district in the state went to Trump.

A lot of them down there correlate the GOP as "God's Party" and they value team loyalty over national good. As my mother said, "Trump may be awful, but Pence is a godly man. He can manage him", or my aunt who said "Trump's been forgiven by God for his past actions. Hillary's evil actions are yet to come."

It's futile and frustrating to bring logic, reason, and common sense into the discussions. The most progress I ever made was telling my mother "Trump is everything you raised me NOT to be and if I acted as he does, you'd be ashamed". She paused momentarily as she digested my words, then snapped out of it and responded, "but you'd still be better than Hillary if that were the case."

It's group-think on a state-wide level and it's incredibly scary.

NEVER underestimate how pervasive this mindset is. It may be a minority, but a minority opinion still put Trump into power.
Click to expand...

It's not a minority mindset if enough people who think like this get their president. You said it yourself: an entire state.

Folks are STILL underestimating how far right the core of the country has gone.
 
G

G.ZZZ

Member
Impossible, poliGAF told me those people would never change their way and we don't have to speak to them, and poliGAF is always right.
 
I

Isak_Borg

Member
More_Badass said:
I can attest to a similar shift. I grew up in a pretty conservative/Republican household (well, mainly Dad, mom doesn't talk politics). My dad is a pretty intelligent logical level-headed guy, the person you'd go to for advice and calm discussion, so why wouldn't he know what was talking about?

I'm 24 now and my perspective didn't change till 2014, particularly thanks to GAF and the threads about the Ferguson protests. Watching the live streams, hearing the empassioned discussions by protesters with journalists, seeing the protests live and the disgusting stories about the police's actions, and then seeing Fox call them thugs and riots the next day was eye-opening. It changed everything for me

After trying to discuss that with my dad and him stubbornly doubling down on them all being police-hating lawless anarchists, I began reading other news sources, reading about other perspectives with an open mind. Again, GAF helped a lot with that, thanks to all the topics that would get discussed in OT.
Click to expand...

My Puerto Rican brother right here has been converted to the fold!

I think as the younger generation realizes how much of their future has been given away to corporate overlords who have no interest in their well being, we'll being of the country and the well being of our environment they will slowly move left.

Hopefully as the GOP dies we will have a center left party and a leftist party that actually work together to turn this great republic into what it can be instead of holding onto antiquated ideas that only solve problems in the short term.
 
G

gamz

Member
Fritz said:
Another thing I do not understand: How short seighted must Republicans be for gathering behind Trump. The damage to the party in the mid/long run will be disastrous.
Click to expand...

They've just had 8 painful years of a president they hated. They will get behind anyone at this point.

I think some if not most can say Trump is a disaster.
 
T

TheCochese

Banned
37 here, Republican up until Trump. I started having much more social liberal views after making a gay friend in my early 20s. My views on race and class and trans rights started to change after reading some opinions here. Trump though pushed me from any conservative viewpoints, though. I can't stand the thought of being associated with them. I never hated Obama, but was disappointed that he got elected. My views on him changed greatly as well I would say the last three years of his presidency.

People can change, but it takes a big shock to the system for it to happen. They have to at least entertain the prospect of wanting the change as well. There are opinions here that I still don't agree with, but one of the things that I think has helped shift me to more liberal policies is that I've always been open to someone making a good argument.
 
S

shiba5

Member
My husband is a Republican who has voted for Democrats since Bush 2. He stays in the party so he can vote for the most "sane" person in the Primary. He couldn't find anyone that fit that description in 2016.
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
shiba5 said:
My husband is a Republican who has voted for Democrats since Bush 2. He stays in the party so he can vote for the most "sane" person in the Primary. He couldn't find anyone that fit that description in 2016.
Click to expand...

What, no love for Jeb! at the very least?
 
G

gamz

Member
shiba5 said:
My husband is a Republican who has voted for Democrats since Bush 2. He stays in the party so he can vote for the most "sane" person in the Primary. He couldn't find anyone that fit that description in 2016.
Click to expand...

I had quite a few republicans in my family who did exactly this. Some even doubled down and voted for Trump this time around, only to regret it.
 
P

pa22word

Member
shiba5 said:
My husband is a Republican who has voted for Democrats since Bush 2. He stays in the party so he can vote for the most "sane" person in the Primary. He couldn't find anyone that fit that description in 2016.
Click to expand...

Yeah I'm also from Oklahoma, and despite always being left of center I've always been registered r because the Democratic party here is a fucking joke that can barely compete in Metro elections competently. The only election that ever matters in this state is the Republican primary. Is what it is.
 
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