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[RDreamer]

Another thing I do not understand: How short seighted must Republicans be for gathering behind Trump. The damage to the party in the mid/long run will be disastrous.

It won't be. As a nation we have the memory of goldfish. George W Bush should have destroyed the Republican Party for at least a few more cycles. Instead we voted in Obama once and then gave Republicans back amazing amounts of power during a census year. Then after all their fuckery we gave them the most power they've had since the 1930s. Trump won't do jack shit to the party. Fox News will shill whatever comes next and people will forget and pretend the parties are all the same just because some Democrat did some speech for Wall Street or whatever other nonsense fucking thing people will come up with.

Kasich will probably be praised as some sort of moderate god-king savior of the party and we'll all watch him or someone else that's actually conservative as all hell walk to the White House just because they're not a bumbling fucking moron.

 

[Ogodei]

This is pretty significant because most research suggests people develop one particular political consciousness quite early in their lives and then stick with it - other, ideological position is relatively inelastic and not amenable to change. Changes in the winning party tend to occur because either the party shifts its position to reflect the fixed idelogical position of the electorate, or the party succeeds in mobilizing voters who previously agreed with it but hadn't previously voted for it. If this remains consistent and the epochal event for this generation is a more liberal position, then either you'd expect in the future a long period of Democratic hegemony or a moderation of the Republican Party to restore compeitiveness.

I do think we'll get a 12-year run of Democrats from 2021-2033 after this, under my theory that Trump is the new Carter and Franken will be the new Reagan (right down to being a former actor!), then Vice President Harris will get a four-year run before folks finally get fatigued and the GOP gets its shit together.

But in the short term diehard Trumpkins and Tea Partiers will continue to insist on their hard-right position and keep the GOP from being able to pivot, although they'll continue to consolidate in states like Arkansas and Idaho.

 

[More_Badass]

37 here, Republican up until Trump. I started having much more social liberal views after making a gay friend in my early 20s. My views on race and class and trans rights started to change after reading some opinions here. Trump though pushed me from any conservative viewpoints, though. I can't stand the thought of being associated with them. I never hated Obama, but was disappointed that he got elected. My views on him changed greatly as well I would say the last three years of his presidency.

People can change, but it takes a big shock to the system for it to happen. They have to at least entertain the prospect of wanting the change as well. There are opinions here that I still don't agree with, but one of the things that I think has helped shift me to more liberal policies is that I've always been open to someone making a good argument.

It's funny thinking back now, I had a very liberal political history professor in my sophomore year of college. And my dad and I would mock her ideas when we would talk during the commute back home, and he would tell me just to write and talk about what they want to hear but it's all lies and nonsense. Looking back, it seems ridiculous and quite sad that I was so close-minded

Funnily that's where I first heard about ideals like the "Living Constitution"

Was part of a on-the-spectrum group during my last years of college that introduced me to LGBTQ peers, their concerns and perspectives, that further cemented my shift to liberal democrat

 

[Herr Schwarz]

The republicans are burning their brightest, before being burnt out completely.

Donald Trump is the republican death rattle. America is about to become a liberal paradise after all this is finished in 4 years,

 

[Lord Frieza]

There was no chance at that due to the extremely gerrymandered districts.

This is untrue. There was a chance as there's still enough competitive seats to win the House, just like in the upcoming midterms.

2012 wasn't a midterm year and 2006 was over a decade ago. The country has changed too much to use events from then as reliable indicators of the future.

You're right on '12 not being a midterm year, but '12 still shows historical precedent, which is the overlying point being made.

 

[shiba5]

Kasich was the saner of the bunch.

Kasich is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

 

[Lord Frieza]

The republicans are burning their brightest, before being burnt out completely.

Donald Trump is the republican death rattle. America is about to become a liberal paradise after all this is finished in 4 years,

Lol, I mean I appreciate this optimism and all, but no way it's realistic even if the pendulum swings to the left again

 

[Dryk]

37 here, Republican up until Trump. I started having much more social liberal views after making a gay friend in my early 20s. My views on race and class and trans rights started to change after reading some opinions here. Trump though pushed me from any conservative viewpoints, though. I can't stand the thought of being associated with them. I never hated Obama, but was disappointed that he got elected. My views on him changed greatly as well I would say the last three years of his presidency.

There was research a few years ago that showed that one effective way of changing people's views is showing them people that broadly agree with them but whose versions of those views are so extreme that they don't want to be associated with them and become vulnerable to softening.

 

[kirblar]

They switched parties to vote for Bernie in the primaries, at least that's what EVERY single one of my Republican friends did in my state.

In West Virginia 39% of Bernie's voters supported Trump in a hypothetical head to head. States an outlier in many ways, but that crossover vote was a thing. The problem is that it wasn't reliable in the general because racism + populism beats just populism.

 

[Fuchsdh]

This last bit surprised me. I'd imagine that someone more engaged would be more willing to switch by hearing about all the various stuff going on from different news sources. Maybe being more engaged just translates to watching more Fox News and such?

The reality is being more informed just probably fosters ideological lock-in for most people.

It's funny thinking back now, I had a very liberal political history professor in my sophomore year of college. And my dad and I would mock her ideas when we would talk during the commute back home, and he would tell me just to write and talk about what they want to hear but it's all lies and nonsense. Looking back, it seems ridiculous and quite sad that I was so close-minded

Funnily that's where I first heard about ideals like the "Living Constitution"

Was part of a on-the-spectrum group during my last years of college that introduced me to LGBTQ peers, their concerns and perspectives, that further cemented my shift to liberal democrat

Unfortunately despite LGBT rights still not firmly cemented, I feel like the radical shift in public opinion on stuff like gay marriage hasn't actually improved electoral chances of liberals, it's just come close to moving into the "solved" column in some people's minds alongside how we defeated racism and the like. I know way too many of my age bracket on Facebook are basically just "I'm fine with gay people and I like weed but I'm essentially republican or libertarian every other way" even though a lot of their ideology would conflict with at least the first part of that statement.

 

[TestOfTide]

Kasich is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Domestically yes, but in terms of free-trade Kasich has been objectively good.

 

[Paltheos]

it's going to be so depressing when the republicans win the midterms.

I don't know about you guys but I felt more motivated to vote last year than I had ever been in my whole life.

 

[nintendoman58]

2012 wasn't a midterm year and 2006 was over a decade ago. The country has changed too much to use events from then as reliable indicators of the future.

???

All trends from the past are good research indicators. 2010, 2014, and even 2016 were all part of those exact same trends.

 

[kirblar]

An important thing to note about this age bracket- they, by and large, don't remember Dubya and were too young to vote for Obama. Older Millennials (aka people my age) were in college or HS when Iraq was invaded. The 18-30 group contains a people growing up in a range of 2-10 through 14-24 and contains primarily the "younger millennial" group. As opposed to the "older Millenial" group who were mostly in college/HS when Iraq happened and who turned out in droves to elect Obama.

What we're seeing is a repeat of that cycle for a new half generation in which they get exposed to what the GOP really is. This is an important lesson going forward for Dems, because we're seeing that it takes just 8 years of a competent Dem president to get a new generation that's super-complacent.

2012 wasn't a midterm year and 2006 was over a decade ago. The country has changed too much to use events from then as reliable indicators of the future.

Barring extreme circumstances, the President's party gets screwed in Midterms because they don't turn out. This is true for almost every midterm election in Modern history, and the 2 notable outliers ('98, '02) have obvious explanations.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

I do think we'll get a 12-year run of Democrats from 2021-2033 after this, under my theory that Trump is the new Carter and Franken will be the new Reagan (right down to being a former actor!), then Vice President Harris will get a four-year run before folks finally get fatigued and the GOP gets its shit together.

But in the short term diehard Trumpkins and Tea Partiers will continue to insist on their hard-right position and keep the GOP from being able to pivot, although they'll continue to consolidate in states like Arkansas and Idaho.

A 12 year run isn't a long period of time though. And the hard right folks are more or less people like Paul Ryan who've fantasied about cutting welfare since he was a young lad. Trumpkins and Tea Partiers are all over the place in terms of what they believe and will follow the lead of a charismatic leader.

 

[Retrofluxed]

I'm 36 and I flopped from Republican to Democrat a few years ago too. I woke up one day and realized they don't give a shit about me since I am neither a corporation or wealthy. Not to mention I disagreed with them on certain issues my whole life (abortion, religion, etc). You really are a product of your environment.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

36 too. Left the dems a few years ago. No intention of going back. Glad to see Republicans flopping to democrats though.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

A 12 year run isn't a long period of time though. And the hard right folks are more or less people like Paul Ryan who've fantasied about cutting welfare since he was a young lad. Trumpkins and Tea Partiers are all over the place in terms of what they believe and will follow the lead of a charismatic leader.

This is very, very, very true.

 

[Sulik2]

I'm 36 and I flopped from Republican to Democrat a few years ago too. I woke up one day and realized they don't give a shit about me since I am neither a corporation or wealthy. Not to mention I disagreed with them on certain issues my whole life (abortion, religion, etc). You really are a product of your environment.

Anything specific finally break through your mental conditioning? The planet really needs to know how to change right wing supporters minds like what happened with you for its own survival.

 

[StoveOven]

She's not under 30, but my mom switched from Republican to Independent this year. She's never been one to vote along party lines and has been considering switching for a while, but Trump was straw that broke the camels back

 

[kirblar]

She's not under 30, but my mom switched from Republican to Independent this year. She's never been one to vote along party lines and has been considering switching for a while, but Trump was straw that broke the camels back

Does she live in a relatively well-off Suburban area? If so she's not alone in the slightest.

 

[Retrofluxed]

Anything specific finally break through your mental conditioning? The planet really needs to know how to change right wing supporters minds like what happened with you for its own survival.

A lot of it for me was growing up in a Republican household. I was told I was a Republican, so I voted Republican. Also, (and this is going to sound horrible) I looked up to Michael J Fox's character on Family Ties who was a Republican, so that further cemented my position at a young age. When Bush 2 was elected, I really didn't like the way the party was heading by kowtowing to the NeoCons (while my household was Republican, we weren't religious, I'm not even Baptized) and his very anti-abortion stance. I always felt I was a more "moderate" Republican, but as the party kept moving more and more extreme right, I starting moving more and more to the left. So unfortunately there really isn't much to point at specifically as it was just a bunch of different factors that led to me switching parties.

 

[TestOfTide]

She's not under 30, but my mom switched from Republican to Independent this year. She's never been one to vote along party lines and has been considering switching for a while, but Trump was straw that broke the camels back

My mom was a heavy Fox News watcher (although she wasn't a straight up Limbaugh type) up until Trump got the nomination. She was a republican since Bush Jr but Trump and his fuck ups have heavily loosened her off of the "Fox News Grip".

My dad meanwhile is basically the embodiment of the O8bama/Romney/Hillary voter.

 

[Game Guru]

I am basically a Democrat and basically had been since I started voting in the George W. Bush era, although I am listed as an Independent purely because my state has completely open primaries. Prior to Trump, I would have at least given Republicans the benefit of the doubt. Now, I'm not even going to consider voting a Republican.

The way I see now, either the Republicans don't survive Trump or America as we know it doesn't. There's absolutely no other option when faced with what has been revealed about Trump's campaign so far.

 

[wisdom0wl]

The republicans are burning their brightest, before being burnt out completely.

Donald Trump is the republican death rattle. America is about to become a liberal paradise after all this is finished in 4 years,

Whatever timeline this is I want in, because it sure as hell ain't this one.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Personal take here.

I'm Republican, but Trump was so egregiously awful on every front that I very proudly voted for Hillary over him because while I may be a conservative, I'm not a blithering idiot.

Thanks for making a tough vote. Obama and Clinton both went out of their way to say "We disagree with Republicans, but Trump is something apart from Republicans". There's a difference between people you disagree with, even strongly, even achingly, even 100% -- and people who are absolutely 100% unqualified, incompetent, and nuts. Trump is a once in a lifetime nutcase. I think all of us would like to pivot back to substantive disagreements about the scope and role of government, rather than worrying about a crazy person bulldozing our foreign relations, nuking a country, or feasting on the souls of albinos in the oval office.

 

[Moppeh]

First post defeatism. I think we reached a new low

Nah, the new low will be when the Republicans win the midterm.

 

[Green Ninja]

Doesn't mean much. I know plenty of people around 30 who switched to independent or even the Republican Party over the 2016 election (Don't Ask)

 

[Green Ninja]

Another thing I do not understand: How short seighted must Republicans be for gathering behind Trump. The damage to the party in the mid/long run will be disastrous.

When is this narrative going to die? I've been hearing it since 2015 and the fucking guy did win the election by a sizable margin. It didn't hurt the republicans at all.

People probably said this after Nixon, Reagan and Bush as well. The Right always strikes back.

 

[Snowybreak]

Doesn't mean much. I know plenty of people around 30 who switched to independent or even the Republican Party over the 2016 election (Don't Ask)

Don't ask what?

 

[Lord Frieza]

Doesn't mean much. I know plenty of people around 30 who switched to independent or even the Republican Party over the 2016 election (Don't Ask)

Anecdotal vs a focused demographics polling method, so one does mean more than the other

 

[Snowybreak]

When is this narrative going to die? I've been hearing it since 2015 and the fucking guy did win the election by a sizable margin. It didn't hurt the republicans at all.

People probably said this after Nixon, Reagan and Bush as well. The Right always strikes back.

Not to double quote, but he lost the popular vote (by 3 million no less). He didn't really win by crazy margins.

 

[kirblar]

Doesn't mean much. I know plenty of people around 30 who switched to independent or even the Republican Party over the 2016 election (Don't Ask)

Where do you/they live?

 

[Zubz]

Not to double quote, but he lost the popular vote (by 3 million no less). He didn't really win by crazy margins.

Yeah. In a fair system, he would've lost by decent margins, if anything. Conservatives aren't going to go away, but they're definitely not going to be dragging in moderates anywhere close to as easily as they have in the past, & this shows they've already lost a fair number, as well.

They'll "strike back," but this is already looking to be a bigger hit than Nixon was, & we're still waiting on the ball to start rolling again. Plus, honestly, I think Reagan may have brought more people into their part than anything, if some of my family is to be believed.

 

[Green Ninja]

Where do you/they live?

CA and FL

 

[SomTervo]

- The less engaged people are politically the more likely they are to switch affiliation

:|

 

[Snowybreak]

Yeah. In a fair system, he would've lost by decent margins, if anything. Conservatives aren't going to go away, but they're definitely not going to be dragging in moderates anywhere close to as easily as they have in the past, & this shows they've already lost a fair number, as well.

They'll "strike back," but this is already looking to be a bigger hit than Nixon was, & we're still waiting on the ball to start rolling again. Plus, honestly, I think Reagan may have brought more people into their part than anything, if some of my family is to be believed.

Thing with Nixon specifically was that the Republicans actively distanced themselves from him. No one said the right was gonna die off after Reagan either. Or Bush.

 

[Green Ninja]

Thing with Nixon specifically was that the Republicans actively distanced themselves with him. No one said the right was gonna die off after Reagan either. Or Bush.

Everyone said the right would die off after Bush (W I mean). Including me.

 

[Misha]

I finally made the party switch last year. It was more because I wanted to vote for Bernie in the primaries but I should have done it awhile ago anyway. The Republican party seems to get worse the longer you look at it, with or without Trump.

 

[Snowybreak]

Everyone said the right would die off after Bush (W I mean)

You still didn't answer either of my original questions. Also again, anecdotes. From the both of us.

:3

Edit: Oh wait no, generalizations. That's right. Anecdotes are personal statements about experiences and situations that are not pulled from source-able facts. Generalizations are broad, sweeping statements.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I mean, it's pretty indisputable that the demographics thing is a real thing that's happening, and that the grip on their power is slowly fading, but the key word is slowly. I feel like when we talk about stuff like that some people have it in their heads that it's something that we're going to just wake up to overnight. It's happening, and it why the GOP is fighting so hard now with voter suppression, big spending, gerrymandering, and keeping their base as enraged and as emboldened as possible.

But anyway, as far as it goes, I'm not trying to be optimistic per say, but I feel like the House is very much in play for 2018. There's enough seats that are competitive, and while I am bracing that Dems will lose both the Georgia and Montana special elections, the fact that they were are way closer than they should be and the GOP has had to spend 6 to 1 to keep those competitive. Not to mention Dems, as a constituency, are mad as fuck. This is way madder than I have ever seen the left been within my lifetime, that I can remember anyway. I feel like there's a real energy there, and hopefully it'll stick. I think the Senate isn't going to happen, but the House is very possible, so I'm not going to be defeatist about it, at least not right now.

 

[kirblar]

CA and FL

D->I in CA,(safe state syndrome), D->R in FL (white people freaking out syndrome)?

 

[FStubbs]

Thanks for making a tough vote. Obama and Clinton both went out of their way to say "We disagree with Republicans, but Trump is something apart from Republicans". There's a difference between people you disagree with, even strongly, even achingly, even 100% -- and people who are absolutely 100% unqualified, incompetent, and nuts. Trump is a once in a lifetime nutcase. I think all of us would like to pivot back to substantive disagreements about the scope and role of government, rather than worrying about a crazy person bulldozing our foreign relations, nuking a country, or feasting on the souls of albinos in the oval office.

The problem with that is that the GOP has very quickly moved over to Trump, protects him from his obvious impeachable actions, and supports his agenda (which is mostly their agenda anyway). You're already seeing guys like Corey Stewart here in Va who want to now push things even further to the right. Trump still enjoys overwhelming support amongst rank and file Republicans.

Let's stop treating Trump as an anomaly. He represents the views of middle America and if anything middle America is worse than he is.

 

[Razgriz-Specter]

As a "young" Republican(i guess at one time) he certainly drove me away(and now the GOP attitude and actions will probably keep me away.)

 

[Mariah Carey]

If you're not a conservative at twenty you have no heart. If you are not a liberal at forty you have no brain.

Or something like that!

 

[Snowybreak]

If you're not a conservative at twenty you have no heart. If you are not a liberal at forty you have no brain.

Or something like that!

I've heard something like that before... But I dunno if I'd say conservatives have heart. Maybe if you took out the "r" and anagrammed it, it would then be a bit more correct.

(Holy shit, anagrammed is a real word in the Google keyboard dictionary.)

 

[Lord Frieza]

If you're not a conservative at twenty you have no heart. If you are not a liberal at forty you have no brain.

Or something like that!

Receipts?

 

[HStallion]

Receipts?

To be a conservative you have to cut out your own heart. Its like conservative 101 dude.

 

[Drkirby]

Eh, its not just Trump. I registered as a Republican in 2008 when I turned 18. and updated it to Democrat when I moved to Texas 2 years ago in 2015. The party as a whole is in a crap place federally.

I also didn't really know much about politics when I was 18. I had assumed the "Party of Fiscal Conservatism" would have raised taxes to balance the budget. I was an idiot on so many points with that line of thought.

 

[Oersted]

Nah, the new low will be when the Republicans win the midterm.

You repeated the point I replied to twice. Easy way to feel clever, but bad way to be right. Mind trying again?