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NPD HW Predictions for 2016 (entire year) - Closes Jan 29

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donny2112

Member
This thread is for predictions of U.S. Hardware sales as reported by NPD (or estimations thereof where no public data is available) for the entire 2016 year (January-December 2016).

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Friday, January 29th. (This gives it some separation from the monthly thread.) Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Format to use for predictions:

[3DS]
[NNX]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good

[3DS] 1500K
[3DS] 1500000
[3DS] 1,500,000

Bad

[3DS] 1.500.000
[3DS] 1.5 million
[3DS] 1.5m
[3DS] - 1.5 m
3DS - 1 million

2015 Results
[PS4] 5740K
[XB1] 4940K
[3DS] 2420K
[WIU] 1340K
Click to expand...

2014 Results*
[PS4] 4680K
[XB1] 4360K
[3DS] 2580K
[WIU] 1570K
[360] 1320K
[PS3] 740K
Click to expand...

* Not all numbers were publicly available throughout the year, so using #1 predictor for missing month to fill in gaps.

2013 Results*
Road said:
npd_ytd_20133ys34.png
Click to expand...
[3DS] 3840K
[360] 3070K
[PS3] 2180K
[PS4] 2000K
[XB1] 1820K
[WIU] 1210K
[PSV] 450K
Click to expand...

* Many numbers were not publicly available throughout the year, so using Road's estimates.

2012 Results*
jvm/Gamasutra said:
[360] 5320K
[3DS] 3640K
[PS3] 3410K
[PSV] 1280K
[WII] 1960K
[WIU] 890K
Click to expand...

* Many numbers were not publicly available throughout the year, so using jvm/Gamasutra's estimates.


Potentially significant sales-related events for 2016
(No guarantee these'll all happen in 2016. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)
Note: If the Nintendo NX does not come out in 2016, its sales will be 0, but it'll still be used in the prediction results.

3DS - price drop
NNX (Nintendo NX) - Zelda U/NX
XB1 - price drop/redesign, Gears of War 4
PS4 - price drop/redesign, Uncharted 4, FFXV (it's a tradition), FFVIIR
WII U - price drop, Zelda U

2015 NPD Prediction Thread
2014 NPD Prediction Thread
2013 NPD Prediction Thread
2012 NPD Prediction Thread
2011 NPD Prediction Thread
2010 NPD Prediction Thread
2009 NPD Prediction Thread
2008 NPD Prediction Thread
2007 NPD Prediction Thread
2006 NPD Prediction Thread
 
Yasss NX!

[3DS] 1550k
[NNX] 1000k
[PS4] 6250k
[WIU] 650k
[XB1] 5250k

Given the brutal way NX is tallied, I'm thing it's best to go low. You get some points if it's a success. You don't get completely wrecked if it's a doesn't release/bombs.

PS4 with its onslaught of exclusives*, pricecut, slim, and the launch of PSVR should easily have it up YoY. Half of its YTD will come from in Nov-Dec
Expect much the same from XB1 (Minus VR). Although we will probably see a softer impact due to nothing matching the void left by Halo. It's competing, especially in the holidays. Should continue to do so.

NX will personally pull the plug on Wii U. Without its holiday sales its 2015 YTD would be laughable (Assuming holiday NX launch). So that's my Wii U basis. Q1/Q2 weak with plummeting Q3/Q4 as the curtain is pulled from NX.

Speaking of NX: NX Home is a typical late November launch. Sells decently in NA. Is a massive hit in Japan.
3DS drops hard. No N3DS to save it this year. Pokemon Z will be there, but it's not enough.

*Console Exclusives + Console/PC Exclusives + Platform Exclusives + Timed Exclusives + Exclusive Marketing.

Some more armchair expert analysis: PS4 sold 17.4m WW in 2015. 5740k of that was in NA. About 33%. WW should be up over 2015. I'm just gonna go with with a modest 10% YoY increase, placing sold-through at 55m by 2017. If the ~33% ratio holds, then out of that 19.1m sold in 2016, about 6250k-6300k of that should be from NA.
 
[PS4] 5820K
[XB1] 6140K
[NNX] 850k
[3DS] 1920K
[WIU] 920K

Still going with my Xbox One slim prediction (for the second year in a row). My guess is that I will almost perfect on the PS4 and 500k off on the XB1, but fuck it - Xbox One slim is coming (probably not) !!!
 
RED_RING said:
[PS4] 5,600,000
[XB1] 4,600,000
[NNX] 1,500,000
[3DS] 1,300,000
[WIU] 900,000
Click to expand...

I thought you said you pedicted the PS4 to do better in 2016 than 2015, or do you think the PS4 will do much worse in NA than Rotw in term of trends?


My own predictions:

[PS4] 6300k
[XB1] 4800k
[NNX] 1200k
[3DS] 1100k
[WIU] 800k

(Temp, will update again later)
 
Elandyll said:
I thought you said you pedicted the PS4 to do better in 2016 than 2015, or do you think the PS4 will do much worse in NA than Rotw in term of trends?


My own predictions:

[PS4] 6100k
[XB1] 4800k
[NNX] 1200k
[3DS] 1100k
[WIU] 800k

(Temp, will update again later)
Click to expand...

I think the PS4 will be up in Europe and Japan, and a bit down in the US.

I expect better sales for the first time of the year, but lower sales during the holidays, so overall i think 2015 should be a bit better than 2016.

Btw, i almost always change my predictions during the year, i will most likely have a better idea after January NPD...

I should change my predictions soon.
 
[PS4] 6900K
[XB1] 5800K
[3DS] 1750K
[WIU] 1110K
[NNX] 2400K

I have no idea what I'm doing with those NX numbers.
 
I've never taken part in any of the predictions.

[PS4] 6,500,000
[XB1] 4,700,000
[NNX] 2,600,000
[3DS] 1,500,000
[WIU] 650,000


I thought about going 7 mil for PS4 and 3 for NX, but decided to pull them back. My NX number is also based on the idea of them launching both the console and the handheld this year.
 
[PS4] 6340K
[XB1] 5280K
[3DS] 1560K
[WIU] 650K
[NNX] 1200K

I think PS4 and XB1 will continue selling more YOY while Ninty consoles will plunge due to NX being around the corner (or even releasing)

edit : oh shit we need to predict nx?
 
viHuGi said:
I have no idea what I'm doing with those NX numbers.
Click to expand...

It's going to depend greatly on how many units are produced (if it even launches this year). So, everyone's just guessing. Because who knows.

Old Nintendo would make sure to produce a small enough quantity to drive scarcity. Worked on every console until the Wii U, which they produced mass quantities for. We all saw how that worked out.
 
CosmicQueso said:
It's going to depend greatly on how many units are produced (if it even launches this year). So, everyone's just guessing. Because who knows.

Old Nintendo would make sure to produce a small enough quantity to drive scarcity. Worked on every console until the Wii U, which they produced mass quantities for. We all saw how that worked out.
Click to expand...

There is also the big question mark of the whole Handheld and Console aspect of the system too that makes any guess about how well it might do really hard.
 
[PS4] 7000K
[XB1] 5500K
[NNX] 1600K
[3DS] 1300K
[WIU] 850K


For Nintendo depends whether NX is a staggered launch, this year handheld and next year the console.

Bitch Pudding said:
reserved

(Couldn't resist)
And it's important for me to state that this figures might change...
[/SPOILER]
Click to expand...

Is "reserved" the new "first!"?
 
But donny, Nintendo would not launch the NX this year! It's 2017 at the earliest!
:p

[PS4] 6200K
[XB1] 5500K
[3DS] 1200K
[NNX] 1100K
[WIU] 830k

So, is Wii U going to be used in the monthly predictions then?
 
Welfare said:
So, is Wii U going to be used in the monthly predictions then?
Click to expand...

No. It doesn't sell enough month-to-month, even if we are likely to get its results. It sells so little that it throws off the points something fierce for a relatively minor absolute difference (e.g. 10K diff on 40K is 25% off the points, when 10K is usually considered pretty close).

That means we'll be down to 3 systems per month predicting for points until the NX comes out, either this year or next.
 
donny2112 said:
No. It doesn't sell enough month-to-month, even if we are likely to get its results. It sells so little that it throws off the points something fierce for a relatively minor absolute difference (e.g. 10K diff on 40K is 25% off the points, when 10K is usually considered pretty close).

That means we'll be down to 3 systems per month predicting for points until the NX comes out, either this year or next.
Click to expand...

Thanks!

3 systems (until NX) is a small amount. I assume this is the lowest it's ever been for the prediction league?
 
CosmicQueso said:
What price point you assuming NX launches at?
Click to expand...

Im thinking it will be ≤ $300. Possibly $250. Nintendo has developed a reputation for low cost console hardware. Even the WiiU was relatively low priced when it came out it just hasnt received much in the way of price cuts since it debuted. I figure NX will continue the undercut the competition tradition of the Wii and the Gamecube. But I also think that if it comes out this year it will come out late November or early December. So sales will likely be limited by the amount of time on the system is on the market this year.
 
[PS4] 6500K
[XB1] 5500K 
[3DS] 1900K
[WIU] 1000K
[NNX] 0K

Ok, a Hail Mary here, but I do not think NX will release (at least in North America) in 2016. Nintendo needs a win, and rushing out to launch so soon before they can get developers solid hands on time will lead to a pretty weak debut. I think they will pull a Dreamcast and not hit over in the US until they have a stronger launch line up and hit in a month that they won't be over shadowed by the PS4 and Xbox1. NX will hit Spring/Summer 2017 in NA, with almost double the launch software of WiiU.
 
I wouldn't drop Wii U just yet, or at least not until it sales collapse y-o-y, predictions will be boring with only 3 systems.

It's not that predicting Wii U is too exciting, but just 2 home consoles that sell a very predictable amount and a 5 year old portable console on its way out it's too few.

By units it won't make any difference, but at least the ranking by points will be a bit more fun and unpredictable.
 
[PS4] 5550K
[XB1] 4850K
[NNX] 1500K
[3DS] 1500K
[WIU] 700K

No monthly Wii U predictions? But then I'll only have the 3DS when it comes to having low expectations crushed. PS4 and XB1 will probably remain steady. I'm inclined they'll sell a bit less this year now that enough big franchises have moved a good amount of the userbase towards them while still not being attractive enough to the wider mass market. But they'll still be good overall. NX lol.
 
Bruno MB said:
I wouldn't drop Wii U just yet, or at least not until it sales collapse y-o-y, predictions will be boring with only 3 systems.

It's not that predicting Wii U is too exciting, but just 2 home consoles that sell a very predictable amount and a 5 year old portable console on its way out it's too few.

By units it won't make any difference, but at least the ranking by points will be a bit more fun and unpredictable.
Click to expand...

We already saw it fall almost 20% from December 2014 to December 2015, and it was down 14 percent in 2015 from 2014, with Q1 of 2015 helping that % not drop any further.

We should expect very harsh drops for the system since nothing impactful is coming out, NX news will be coming soon, and the XB1/PS4 are very close to the systems price, with only one good deal needed to drop below $299, or even a potential XB1 price cut to $299.

However, would it be possible to keep track of the 3 main systems, and then track the points with the three + Wii U, and if its performance really is affecting points/units by a lot by say March, we then drop the Wii U and switch over to just XB1, PS4, and 3DS? Would probably be a lot more work though, so it really is up to you, donny.
 
Trust me said:
NX game until, you know, it actually exists as a product.

Edit: Donny, do we have to have NX right now? Can I add it after at least the announcement?
Click to expand...

Correct me if I am wrong but as there is no assessment the format isn't that important.

I split up numbers between NX home console and mobile derivate, as I've heard rumors (here on NeoGAF) that only the mobile one will be released within 2016.
 
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