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2011 NPD Predictions - Closes February 7th

C

Cheesemeister

Member
This prediction thread covers the grand total of all console hardware sales as given in the NPD reports from January through December 2011.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Monday, February 7th. Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Note the new platforms this year! We're saying goodbye to the PS2 and PSP, and hello to the 3DS and NGP.

Format:

[360]
[PS3]
[NGP]
[NDS]
[3DS]
[WII]

Good

[360] 5500K
[360] 5500000
[360] 5,500,000

Bad

[360] 5.500.000
[360] 5.5 million
[360] 5.5m
[360] - 5.5 m
360 - 5 million

2010 Results
NPD said:
[NDS] 8,557,500
[WII] 7,069,900
[360] 6,764,089
[PS3] 4,333,500
[PSP] 1,660,324*
Click to expand...

* PSP numbers for December 2010 were not made available, and thus the number you see here includes an estimate of 428,000 December hardware sales from jvm at Gamasutra.

2009 Results
NPD said:
[NDS] 11,185,400
[WII] 9,594,000
[360] 4,770,700
[PS3] 4,334,500
[PSP] 2,495,900
[PS2] 1,799,900
Click to expand...

2008 Results

NPD said:
[WII] 10,170,989
[NDS] 9,951,108
[360] 4,735,403
[PSP] 3,828,746
[PS3] 3,544,966
[PS2] 2,503,231
Click to expand...

2007 Results

NPD said:
[NDS] 8,500,000
[WII] 6,290,000
[360] 4,620,000
[PS2] 3,970,000
[PSP] 3,820,000
[PS3] 2,560,000
Click to expand...

Potentially significant releases for 2011
(No guarantee these'll come out in 2011. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

360 - Child of Eden, GOW3, Project Draco
NDS - DQVI, Pokémon B/W, KHR:C, Layton/Wright, Okamiden
3DS - Ocarina, Pilotwings, Kid Icarus, Nintendogs, SSFIV, DOA
PS3 - vs. XIII, FFXIV, The Last Guardian, Infamous 2, Killzone/Resistance/Uncharted 3
NGP - Launch
WII - Skyward Sword, Last Story, Monado (Xenoblade)

2010 NPD Prediction Thread
2009 NPD Prediction Thread
2008 NPD Prediction Thread
2007 NPD Prediction Thread
2006 NPD Prediction Thread
 
[360] 5,000,000
[PS3] 3,000,000
[NGP] 0
[NDS] 5,500,000
[3DS] 7,500,000
[WII] 4,500,000


Another thing you might want to use as an aid: The last system to launch in Q1 was the PSP which ended up selling 3.6m in its launch year. Also, the NGP is looking unlikely to release in America this year.
 
[360] 7500K
[WII] 5500k
[PS3] 5400K
[3DS] 4700K
[NDS] 4500K
[NGP] 0K

Whatever.

Edit: Every existing system will get an entry-level price cut this year. PS3 to $250, Xbox 360 to $180 or $150, Wii to $180, Nintendo DSL/DSi/XL to $100/$130/$150.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Also, the NGP is looking unlikely to release in America this year.
Click to expand...

If it doesn't, does that mean that everyone who predicted a value for it will be "off" by that much?

[360] 6800K
[WII] 6500k
[NDS] 6500K
[3DS] 5500K
[PS3] 5000K
[NGP] 0K
 
donny2112 said:
If it doesn't, does that mean that everyone who predicted a value for it will be "off" by that much?
Click to expand...

That's part of the guessing game, right? It's one more thing to try and guess correctly.
 
[360] 5100K
[PS3] 4000K
[NGP] 800K
[NDS] 7400K
[3DS] 7200K
[WII] 6500K

This is wild guesses and speculation for the most part. The existing console numbers were chosen because they feel right. The rest? Well...

I'm assuming the 3DS will launch at the end of March with an unprecedented number of units available. I'm assuming this because they've been manufacturing them since late last year for a planned 2010 launch. The 3D hook and the fact that it's a DS follow-up will mean it'll do numbers comparable to the DS while it's on the market.

The DS meanwhile, will see declines as the 3DS eats its lunch. It will, however, continue to sell faster than the newer system because of its price and momentum going into the year. I'm assuming some sort of bundle or price drop to increase its value proposition.

I'm *assuming* the NGP will launch in the US at the end of November as Sony currently has a strategic need to 1) check the 3DS's momentum in the US and 2) revive sales of portables. Let's face it, the PSP in Japan is realtively healthy whereas it's dead in the US and has been for some time.. The actual number sold will depend heavily on how many units they have available. I'm being optimistic with their manufacturing capacity here.
 
viciouskillersquirrel said:
[360] 5100K
[PS3] 4000K
[NGP] 800K
[NDS] 7400K
[3DS] 7200K
[WII] 6500K

This is wild guesses and speculation for the most part. The existing console numbers were chosen because they feel right. The rest? Well...

I'm assuming the 3DS will launch at the end of March with an unprecedented number of units available. I'm assuming this because they've been manufacturing them since late last year for a planned 2010 launch. The 3D hook and the fact that it's a DS follow-up will mean it'll do numbers comparable to the DS while it's on the market.

The DS meanwhile, will see declines as the 3DS eats its lunch. It will, however, continue to sell faster than the newer system because of its price and momentum going into the year. I'm assuming some sort of bundle or price drop to increase its value proposition.

I'm *assuming* the NGP will launch in the US at the end of November as Sony currently has a strategic need to 1) check the 3DS's momentum in the US and 2) revive sales of portables. Let's face it, the PSP in Japan is realtively healthy whereas it's dead in the US and has been for some time.. The actual number sold will depend heavily on how many units they have available. I'm being optimistic with their manufacturing capacity here.
Click to expand...
The US is getting 1.25-1.5 million units for launch at the minimum.
 
antonz said:
The US is getting 1.25-1.5 million units for launch at the minimum.
Click to expand...
Has this been stated officially? Are these targets?

Just looking at the specs of the thing and working with the assumption that it'll just barely launch this year, I'm not expecting high availability.
 
viciouskillersquirrel said:
Has this been stated officially? Are these targets?

Just looking at the specs of the thing and working with the assumption that it'll just barely launch this year, I'm not expecting high availability.
Click to expand...

He's referring to the 3DS.
 
[360] 6300k
[PS3] 5900k
[WII] 5900k
[NDS] 4200k
[3DS] 3800k
[NGP] 0k

NGP launching in Japan only :)
 
[360] 5,950,000
[PS3] 4,000,000
[NGP] 1
[NDS] 6,050,000
[3DS] 3,000,001
[WII] 6,000,000


I'm guessing that the NGP won't launch this year in NA and I'm taking into account the start of cannibalization this year of the NDS by the 3DS. I expect 360 to lose a little momentum, and for the wii to lose momentum but not as much as it would with a price drop around holiday season. I foresee drops with every console except the new ones, basically. I think people are slowly losing interest in this generation and definitely expect new consoles all-around in 2012.
 
[360] 6,800,000
[PS3] 4,700,000
[NGP] 150,000
[NDS] 5,200,000
[3DS] 3,400,000
[WII] 7,200,000

Essentially I think the 360 coming off it's best year ever will be flat, PS3 is going to get another price cut, NGP will be released late and enough consumers won't see the value in the price, NDS is going to be a surprise, although the 3DS will succeed, it's price and a DS price cut will give the DS much more staying power, at least for this year. DS hasn't had a significant price cut in a LONG time if ever. Wii will get a price cut too.
 
[360] 5500K
[WII] 5300k
[PS3] 4100K
[3DS] 6000K
[NDS] 4000K
[NGP] 0K

Sales have already peaked worldwide. Will go down sharply this year
 
[360] 5400K
[WII] 5700k
[PS3] 5000K
[3DS] 5900K
[NDS] 6300K
[NGP] 1300K

NGP - I expect this to come out mid to late November, with only 1.5M units allocated to North America.

360 - I expect it to be down YoY (but still have its 2nd best year).

Wii - I expect the Wii to continue its downward trend as Nintendo shifts its focus to the 3DS.

3DS - I suspect that based on Nintendo's desire to have an install base of 5M in PAL by the end of the year that they'll only be able to ship 5-7m units in North America (with the US receiving 85-90% of shipment).

PS3 - PS3 has a strong line up ahead of it and will capitalise on 360 shortages in the first quarter of this year. This will allow the PS3 to build up momentum and carry on through to summer with strong sales. I believe Sony will announce a $50 price drop for the standard PS3 SKU and offer the MOVE sku for $299 before September.

An alternate scenario could be that Sony announces a super slim and releases it at $199 this fall. Regardless I expect the PS3 to have its strongest year this year.

DS - Down YoY but still hold strong due to 3DS high price tag.
 
Way to early to speculate. My guess would be 360 and Wii in a dead heat for first, but probably slightly down from the Wii numbers from last year. So lets say 6.5 million each. The PS3 doing respectable numbers at around 4.5 million. The 360 will lead throughout most of the year with the Wii catching up during the holidays. As for handhelds, I think the 3DS will do triple what the PSP2 does over the course of the year. But I really do not care because a hate playing on a handheld.
 
[360] 6,400,000
[PS3] 4,400,000
[NDS] 5,500,000
[3DS] 7,000,000
[WII] 7,500,000
 
[360] 6,140,000
[PS3] 4,820,000
[NGP] 0
[NDS] 6,500,000
[3DS] 4,350,000
[WII] 6,243,000


Basically I'm predicting a close year.... very tough to do the ordering, I'm not sure if the Wii's decline will take it below the 360 and how much the 360 will be able to maintain momentum... at the same time, I'm not sure how much the 3DS will eat into NDS sales, but at the moment, I'm predicting that 2012 will be the year the 3DS really takes off.
 
We're actually going to be including the NGP in the results if it doesn't launch?

I guess I will split the difference then.

[360] 6200k
[PS3] 3800k
[NGP] 500k
[NDS] 5500k
[3DS] 4500k
[WII] 6000k
 
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