http://www.vg247.com/2009/02/09/pachter-us-estimates-275k-360-225-ps3-in-january/
Wii 550k
360 275K
PS3 225K
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Pachter's January NPD Estimates
- Thread starter FrankT
- Start date
http://www.vg247.com/2009/02/09/pachter-us-estimates-275k-360-225-ps3-in-january/
Wii 550k
360 275K
PS3 225K
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
especially since nintendo has already confirmed his wii number 
Pureauthor
Member
Is NPD this Friday or the next?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Pureauthor said:
this thursday
John Dunbar
correct about everything
what's the january record for a single console?
Pureauthor
Member
Stumpokapow said:
Yeah, I get it on Fridays because of the y'know, time thing... >_>
lowlylowlycook
Member
botticus said:
How much was the PS2 then? Already down to $129?
lowlylowlycook
Member
lawblob said:
What recession?
(from gamasutra's dec. NPD analysis)
Chû Totoro
Member
Yeah maybe no recession for the videogame industry but I don't think there will be a two digits growth.lowlylowlycook said:What recession?
(from gamasutra's dec. NPD analysis)
Sadly the littlest editors and devs will suffer more
timetokill
Banned
That would be strong sales numbers for Wii indeed.
Chinner said:
Not so much when there was lack of stock last year post Christmas. This year not so much as I bought a Jasper arcade in the month with no issues locating one. MS actually keeping up post Christmas this year without issue it would seem. As far as Pachter's numbers they don't seem too out of line. 360/PS3 maybe a bit a lower and Wii in range perhaps.
Outside the big three as far as recession goes no clearly SW companies are taking it real good when it comes to the recession.
BishopLamont
Banned
PS3 and 360 basically swapped numbers comparative to 2008's January's numbers. The growth would be entirely due to Wii's increased stock.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
So it seems everyone's comfortable with the suggestion that the PS3 is down YoY for the 3rd consecutive month?
I thought there would be way more opposition to that, especially since it highlights what's becoming a disturbing trend for the PS3.
I thought there would be way more opposition to that, especially since it highlights what's becoming a disturbing trend for the PS3.
BishopLamont
Banned
It's probably going to keep dropping til it gets a price drop.DeaconKnowledge said:
DeaconKnowledge said:
Not really, going into holiday season 07 PS3 had a healthy price cut not so much for 08(still at the same price it was when it got that cut), and January was the hammer and nail to HDDVD. So PS3 had some momentum during that time period it is clearly lacking now. Not to mention some of the worst economic conditions for the highest price console out there. Not really all that surprising. It's going to take a good cut simply to get the ball rolling again. I haven't done my numbers yet, but I think both PS3 and 360 could be a bit lower than Pachter's.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Jtyettis said:
I fail to see how these variables stop it from being a disturbing trend. The PS3 being the same price it was when it dropped in 07 shouldn't be a deterrent for people buying it in 08, and why aren't people continuuing to buy the definitive next gen disc format when its only competitor has been dead and buried for months?
The problem with the PS3 stretches past just price now. It's a system that delivers largely the same gaming experience for a higher price, and consumers are starting to shy away from it as a result. Price drops at this rate will only be placing bandages on the cracks of this PS3 dam, what we're seeing here is the damage of a high priced console with a huge shared library bearing fruit.
Wait you don't understand why a price cut would help it with additional sales in one year over another. Heh, I pointed that out to Jesse Divinch when he put up his high estimates for the PS3 before holidays and even he got it. Do I think more price cuts are going to skyrocket the PS3 in the US, no. Personally I think the US is pretty much done as far as this generation goes for the 3 platforms and has been that way for quite some time now. Price cuts will help all of these platforms, but it will not help PS3/360 to the point of changing the overall dynamic of placements imo. 1/2/3 is set in the US and has been for awhile now.
As far as Blu Ray I have no clue. Personally I refuse to buy any over $20, but maybe that is just me. It has made some progress, but it has a long, long way to go.
As far as Blu Ray I have no clue. Personally I refuse to buy any over $20, but maybe that is just me. It has made some progress, but it has a long, long way to go.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Jtyettis said:
That's not what I said. I said I don't understand why people would stop buying the console even though it is the same price as last year. Price drops should boost existing sales, not get you back to where you were previously. The thought that the PS3 NEEDS a price drop to sell near the same amount of kit as it did last year should be a huge red flag to anyone even remotely interested in tracking sales. We're not even comparing it to the 360 or Wii now, this is PS3 2007-8 vs. 2008-9.
Jtyettis said:
I think it's been well established that people aren't going to buy a PS3 as "a Blu-Ray player that plays games". I feel it quite didingenuous to infer that the PS3 is bringing in any more than statistical noise by way of Blu Ray sales, especially considering the steady decrease we're bearing witness to as the months go on.
DeaconKnowledge said:
It was a red flag a long time ago now and that was why I added 1/2/3 is set in stone in the US and has been for a very long time now. No where near the point of being red flag material now if one has been tracking these numbers seriously. I remember a specific thread you were in last year at this time where you thought the PS3 could actually change the WW dynamic(Edge article claiming 360 would see it's last month of outselling the PS3). I certainly didn't think so and one or two months of small wins really didn't mean that whatsoever.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Jtyettis said:
Now that's a quote I would love to see.
DeaconKnowledge said:
It will take some time, but I'll find it. I remember the thread, but have yet to find it. Nextgenbiz/Edge prediction article for 2008 where they stated 360 would see it's last month leading PS3 sales IIRC.
Failed to find it, but I'll try to look later. I could be mistaking you for someone else, but don't think so. Anyhow I'm pretty sure I never commented in the thread. I missed it altogether and was pointed to it later on last year sometime for the laughs.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
As long as there was nothing in January to change the trend, it doesn't seem much a surprise.DeaconKnowledge said:
Sales won't just remain flat forever if a price never changes. If that were the case and price drops only caused sales to increase, PS2 should be selling HOT on its fifth price.DeaconKnowledge said:
Jtyettis said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=230386
I have a small bookmark folder of various predictions :]
lowlylowlycook
Member
Mindlog said:
You're the man!
DeaconKnowledge said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9412841&postcount=445
I remember reading this comment a long time after the fact and thinking to myself how in the world could you think that at the time.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
I'm not trying to infer that the PS3 should be increasing sales indefinitely with price drops. In essence we're in the process of seeing the PS3 plummet three months in a row, 2 of those months being holiday months (November and December.) What i'm getting at here is that is nowhere near normal for a console in its third year. A healthy console would see YoY growth, not reduction.
lowlylowlycook
Member
So does anyone think the PS3 can avoid being outsold by Wii Fit worldwide?
CreatureX3
Member
Do you know the records for every month?botticus said:
MightyHedgehog
Member
I made some pretty good posts in there that ended up pretty much happening... And barring a rather painful (for Sony) $100 price drop or introduction of a $199 SKU in the very near future, it would surprise me if PS3 outsells X360 in North America at any time for the rest of this gen. MS is ready to match if Sony does, though, and that's a pretty tough situation for the Sony dudes.Mindlog said:
I think he's over on everything except perhaps Wii. I have a feeling PS3 numbers will be particularly disturbing, and I don't see 360 going much over 200K. The holidays are over and the weight of the recession really hit people in January. We already know that consumer spending was way down, I think the idea that gaming won't start feeling the pinch is naive. The only reason I expect Wii sales to be so high is because of pent up demand from Decemberpurchases that were already planned for the holidays but not picked up due to shortages. That and the general public sense that Wii presents an excellent value (GAF's opinion notwithstanding).