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April 2009 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
My monthly column for Gamasutra on the latest videogame industry figures from NPD is now up.
Direct link to Gamasutra story about April 2009 NPD data.

A couple of things that may be of interest:

* Total software units data for April 2008, 2009
* Data for DSi, GTA:CW, Killzone 2, Dark Athena (X360) [which leads to lower bounds on Halo 3, Halo Wars]
* Official ASP data for three systems

One image for fun:
average-weekly-hardware-sales.gif


As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP. (Regular readers from last month will know that several bits got touched up because folks here helped out.)

I may be unavailable for much of the day, so silence won't mean I'm ignoring you. Just AFK. Thanks, guys.

(Trivia: This was my 24th month covering this beat. The first month of my third year will start in June.)

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
 
Another great article, thanks again.

That's a pretty decent 2nd month number for GTA:CW.

Halo 3 continues to chug along.

Nice to see some software numbers for a few of the titles outside the Top 20.

Also interesting to see the 1600pts card become the #1 selling accessory for April.
 
Gamasutra said:
We note that others believe the cut could come later, and that it could be only $50. If recent reports are true and Sony still loses $40 on each $400 PS3 unit, a smaller price cut would certainly be gentler on Sony's bottom line.
Click to expand...

Do you have a source for that? I've read all sorts of things about this, but I've never seen that number.

EDIT: and Halo 3 is just silly.
 
Wow, GTA CTW sold 74k in April? That's an incredible second month.

edit: oh, there was a price cut at Best Buy, too. Wish we could get an ASP for the title. ):
 
Excellent Article this month JVM.

I agree that the PS3 price cut has to be big and fast for Sony to make their sales target. Really a slim model or at least a cheaper to make version of the Cell must be in the immediate future.
 
Interesting analysis, but I fear this thread is doomed to be another PS3 price drop discussion.

Bold claim from me: No PS3 price drop until God Of War 3 in March 2010.

No price drops from any of the platforms until next year. It'll all be pack-ins and added value offers, the prices will stay the same.
 
gregor7777 said:
Do you have a source for that? I've read all sorts of things about this, but I've never seen that number.

EDIT: and Halo 3 is just silly.
Click to expand...

I think right after the annual report came out, the CFO said something like 10% loss per PS3 sold but it isn't know what market that is and it probably means 10% of what they sell it for not the retail price.
 
Good stuff as always jvm. Riddick only selling 57k on 360 is awful. FEAR2, Wheelman, and now Riddick, mid level developers not making shovelware are just getting killed :(
 
Hm. Chinatown Wars should be able to break 200K in NA. Whether or not this is considered 'good' by the higher ups, however, is something I don't know.
 
•According to data provided to Gamasutra for this report, Sony's Killzone 2 sold 58,000 units for the month, dropping it out of the top 20 and bringing its LTD sales to 677,000 units.
Click to expand...

Ouch at the drop off for KillzoneII. Even if sales hold to that level it would still take 6 months to crack a million.

I think given the game Guerilla delivered, and the critical reception to it, this one can be placed on the shoulders of Sony's marketing division.
 
Pureauthor said:
Hm. Chinatown Wars should be able to break 200K in NA. Whether or not this is considered 'good' by the higher ups, however, is something I don't know.
Click to expand...

I'm betting it will break at least 500k. It maintained the same sales level month to month, and is currently ~150k, there is no way it won't break 200k. Most DS titles have shown they are slow burners.
 
kiruyama said:
Wow, GTA CTW sold 74k in April? That's an incredible second month.

edit: oh, there was a price cut at Best Buy, too. Wish we could get an ASP for the title. ):
Click to expand...

Well, GTA:CW sold for $20 for about a week or so of the period.
 
Die Squirrel Die said:
Ouch at the drop off for KillzoneII. Even if sales hold to that level it would still take 6 months to crack a million.

I think given the game Guerilla delivered, and the critical reception to it, this one can be placed on the shoulders of Sony's marketing division.
Click to expand...

Standing at 677K after three months and with the drop off it just had month over month (296k to 58K) it will likely never pass a million in the US, which is below MGS4 and in line with what I had predicted before release.
 
So when games like Dark Athena and Godfather bomb what do people say?

EDIT: HOLY SHIT at this rate Killzone 2 will NEVER pass a million in the US unless some kind of price drop and I even doubt that will help much. :O
 
Die Squirrel Die said:
Ouch at the drop off for KillzoneII. Even if sales hold to that level it would still take 6 months to crack a million.

I think given the game Guerilla delivered, and the critical reception to it, this one can be placed on the shoulders of Sony's marketing division.
Click to expand...

KZ2, for what it is (big budget, shooter, marketed as a blockbuster) is a complete failure in the US.

I didn't think it was going to move significant hardware, but if you told me last year it would sell roughly as much as Halo 3 in April 2009, I would have laughed at you.

jrricky said:
I wanna see responses to other games bombing and not selling on HD systems.
Click to expand...

Ah, I wasn't familiar with your agenda. Plenty of games selling well on the HD systems, so I think you're probably just here to troll. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.
 
jrricky said:
I wanna see responses to other games bombing and not selling on HD systems.
Click to expand...

They will just say there are enough games that succeed, its a winless battle because there is always a counter

I thought the same thing reading JVM's article because MadWorld outsold Riddick but yet MadWorld gets the bomba threads
 
markatisu said:
They will just say there are enough games that succeed, its a winless battle because there is always a counter

I thought the same thing reading JVM's article because MadWorld outsold Riddick but yet MadWorld gets the bomba threads
Click to expand...

Madworld dropped off of the Wii's top 50 games this month. It was supposed to be the Wii's hardcore indicator for other devs, and it has very clearly indicated something.

Edit: That sounded a bit harsh, I mean, it is a niche game, but I think some people misconstrued its real appeal.

Another note, this is the first month that the economic situation seems to be hitting the gaming market, that is what is leading to the lower sales of many games.
 
squicken said:
Good stuff as always jvm. Riddick only selling 57k on 360 is awful. FEAR2, Wheelman, and now Riddick, mid level developers not making shovelware are just getting killed :(
Click to expand...
I blame the 360's userbase
 
markatisu said:
They will just say there are enough games that succeed, its a winless battle because there is always a counter

I thought the same thing reading JVM's article because MadWorld outsold Riddick but yet MadWorld gets the bomba threads
Click to expand...
Wait, enough games dont succeed on the DS and Wii?

gregor7777 said:
Ah, I wasn't familiar with your agenda. Plenty of games selling well on the HD systems, so I think you're probably just here to troll. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.
Click to expand...
What is trolling? Wanting to see where the goalposts get drawn?
 
Jtyettis said:
Standing at 677K after three months and with the drop off it just had month over month (296k to 58K) it will likely never pass a million in the US, which is below MGS4 and in line with what I had predicted before release.
Click to expand...

I meant it to be clearer that I think a million is a longshot. Well maybe years from now, when it can be had for $15, it might crawl past it, but I can't imagine that Sony are too happy with that performance. As I said I think Guerilla made the game they needed to, and it had a good release window, out of the holiday rush with only a few other big releases to compete with on the PS3 (SFIV and RE5).

If Sony really want to move away from relying on 'payed for' third party exclusives to drive hardware sales, then they've got to put the marketing muscle behind these 1st party franchises that top out at 1-2 million WW in sales, and push them to do more.
 
gregor7777 said:
Ah, I wasn't familiar with your agenda. Plenty of games selling well on the HD systems, so I think you're probably just here to troll. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.
Click to expand...

Well most of the publishers not going out of business or being bought up are losing money so I doubt there are enough games selling well enough on the HD systems.
 
It's going to be interesting to see if GTA: CW will have sustained monthly sales like CoD4 DS did. I'm hoping it does; the game is great.

jrricky said:
So when games like Dark Athena and Godfather bomb what do people say?
Click to expand...

What would they say? We know that the 360 can't support hardcore games like this. They should move them to Wii.
 
lowlylowlycook said:
Wait people were expecting better legs than that for KZ2? Did they forget and think it's a Wii game?
Click to expand...

Yes, I expected better a couple months out from release. I don't really consider this time period for KZ2 as an answer to whether KZ2 will have legs. It was released 2 months ago.

Legs are sales in July-Oct for a game released in February IMO.
 
Stopsign said:
Madworld dropped off of the Wii's top 50 games this month. It was supposed to be the Wii's hardcore indicator for other devs, and it has very clearly indicated something.
Click to expand...
I hope Dark Athena, Godfather and Fear keep up their pace on the list.

EDIT: Oh where is Wheelman, why no mention?
 
Die Squirrel Die said:
I meant it to be clearer that I think a million is a longshot. Well maybe years from now, when it can be had for $15, it might crawl past it, but I can't imagine that Sony are too happy with that performance. As I said I think Guerilla made the game they needed to, and it had a good release window, out of the holiday rush with only a few other big releases to compete with on the PS3 (SFIV and RE5).

If Sony really want to move away from relying on 'payed for' third party exclusives to drive hardware sales, then they've got to put the marketing muscle behind these 1st party franchises that top out at 1-2 million WW in sales, and push them to do more.
Click to expand...

After they launched at $600 every decision that Sony makes to spend more money rather than less is in danger of just being good money sent after bad.

If 3rd party publishers can't make money marketing to the whole HD userbase what makes you think that Sony can make more money by spending on marketing to just the smaller PS3 user base?

It comes down to the fact that a luxury or premium console is simply an ill conceived idea and throwing money at the problem won't fix it.
 
jrricky said:
I hope Dark Athena, Godfather and Fear keep up their pace on the list.
Click to expand...

Why exactly? It's hard to take you serious when you're actively rooting for games to fail. That's what I meant about you appearing to have an agenda.
 
gregor7777 said:
Yes, I expected better a couple months out from release. I don't really consider this time period for KZ2 as an answer to whether KZ2 will have legs. It was released 2 months ago.

Legs are sales in July-Oct for a game released in February IMO.
Click to expand...

By that definition what HD games have legs? The vast majority of sales are in the first few months.
 
jrricky said:
Wait, enough games dont succeed on the DS and Wii?


What is trolling? Wanting to see where the goalposts get drawn?
Click to expand...

Are you trying to defend Mad World and Chinatown Wars? Surely you don't need it spelled out, again, why those two games in particular were being watched closely.
 
Stopsign said:
Madworld dropped off of the Wii's top 50 games this month. It was supposed to be the Wii's hardcore indicator for other devs, and it has very clearly indicated something.

Edit: That sounded a bit harsh, I mean, it is a niche game, but I think some people misconstrued its real appeal.
Click to expand...

Yeah RE4 Wii was supposed to be the indicator, then RE:UC, then No More Heroes, then Cod WaW, then HoTD Overkill, then MadWorld, now its The Conduit

Out of that list 3 of those games are getting sequels (if the COD MW2 Wii is true) and RE4 should have gotten another game....but we need to discount all of them for one reason or another (light gun, multiplatform, port, etc)

every month there is always a test, if one succeeds the answer is "more need to", like I said its a never ending winless battle because the goal posts will always be moved and adjusted

Even if MadWorld moves massive numbers at $29.99 and gets to 500k or 1m it will be tagged with "needed a discount, could not do it quick enough"
 
gregor7777 said:
Why exactly? It's hard to take you serious when you're actively rooting for games to fail. That's what I meant about you appearing to have an agenda.
Click to expand...
How am I 'rooting' for them to fail? Saying I hope they sell as much as they did last month, this month?

Keep on misjudging me then.
squicken said:
Are you trying to defend Mad World and Chinatown Wars? Surely you don't need it spelled out, again, why those two games in particular were being watched closely.
Click to expand...
No, Im not. Just want to have a discussion to see what the consensus is around these woods.

EDIT:Remind me why exactly in particular were these games being 'watched'.
 
I really have to question the wisdom of releasing Riddick at $60. Despite the improvements, it's essentially an HD port of a last-gen game from 2004.

This kind of thing might have sold well in it's original release window (2006?) when the HD lineups were more dry. But when you can get comparable single/multi value in a great shooter for cheaper (see: Halo 3, COD4, Gears 1/2, Left 4 Dead, Orange Box, WaW, FEAR 2), the graphical novelty of the original release has worn off, and most of the fanbase has already complete the core of the game, I really don't see how this game had chance, outside of it being a slow month for releases.

lowlylowlycook said:
By that definition what HD games have legs? The vast majority of sales are in the first few months.
Click to expand...

Looking at the sales numbers we do get from the occasional top 20s and UK charts, Halo 3, both Gears, the two latest Call of Duties, and GTA IV have had very long legs. Left 4 Dead also sold more than half of its LTD outside of its release month.
 
Aside from some exceptions, would it be fair to say that marketing power and brand recognition are more important than platform this generation?
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
I really have to question the wisdom of releasing Riddick at $60. Despite the improvements, it's essentially an HD port of a last-gen game from 2004.

This kind of thing might have sold well in it's original release window (2006?) when the HD lineups were more dry. But when you can get comparable single/multi value in a great shooter for cheaper (see: Halo 3, COD4, Gears 1/2, Left 4 Dead, Orange Box, WaW, FEAR 2), the graphical novelty of the original release has worn off, and most of the fanbase has already complete the core of the game, I really don't see how this game had chance, outside of it being a slow month for releases.
Click to expand...


Wow. I'd say that's really unfair. Why shouldn't the game sell at $60? That's the market price for 90 percent of PS360 games.

IMO, you have a point about it possibly doing better around a thinner release schedule, however that's more a problem of the 360's saturated FPS market than the game itself.

Also, how much did Butcher Bay on the OX sell? I don't remember it being significant in the grand scheme of things. Am I wrong in thinking that?
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
I really have to question the wisdom of releasing Riddick at $60. Despite the improvements, it's essentially an HD port of a last-gen game from 2004.

This kind of thing might have sold well in it's original release window (2006?) when the HD lineups were more dry. But when you can get comparable single/multi value in a great shooter for cheaper (see: Halo 3, COD4, Gears 1/2, Left 4 Dead, Orange Box, WaW, FEAR 2), the graphical novelty of the original release has worn off, and most of the fanbase has already complete the core of the game, I really don't see how this game had chance, outside of it being a slow month for releases.
Click to expand...

Well, what about Fear 2? I think it had more to do with marketing. Did Riddick get much of a push?

EDIT removed
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
I really have to question the wisdom of releasing Riddick at $60. Despite the improvements, it's essentially an HD port of a last-gen game from 2004.
Click to expand...
That's not really true at all. There was an entirely new game in there that was six-eight hours long and new multiplayer features.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
Wow. I'd say that's really unfair. Why shouldn't the game sell at $60? That's the market price for 90 percent of PS360 games.

IMO, you have a point about it possibly doing better around a thinner release schedule, however that's more a problem of the 360's saturated FPS market than the game itself.

Also, how much did Butcher Bay on the OX sell? I don't remember it being significant in the grand scheme of things. Am I wrong in thinking that?
Click to expand...

IIRC, it sold Riddick on the Xbox sold around 250,000+ copies during the first month. The game was said to be an overwhelming success while the movie was a relative commercial failure. However, the PC port wasn't as successful as the Xbox version.

I think Dark Athena's problem is that it concentrates on a cinematic, story-focused single-player when an in-depth multi-player is what everyone wants. There haven't been very strong sales for shooters like Fear 2 or Dark Athena. There is a strong second hand market for these types of games and positive word of mouth for shooters is almost always about the multi-player. It also helps if the a licensed games is released along side the movie it is tied to.
 
FEAR 2 failed because Monolith abandoned their PC roots.

Too bad, so sad.

Went after that delicious console fruit, and got a bit of a tummy ache, did you?
 
markatisu said:
Yeah RE4 Wii was supposed to be the indicator, then RE:UC, then No More Heroes, then Cod WaW, then HoTD Overkill, then MadWorld, now its The Conduit

Out of that list 3 of those games are getting sequels (if the COD MW2 Wii is true) and RE4 should have gotten another game....but we need to discount all of them for one reason or another (light gun, multiplatform, port, etc)

every month there is always a test, if one succeeds the answer is "more need to", like I said its a never ending winless battle because the goal posts will always be moved and adjusted

Even if MadWorld moves massive numbers at $29.99 and gets to 500k or 1m it will be tagged with "needed a discount, could not do it quick enough"
Click to expand...

They do the tests because they want to develop on the HD systems so they can keep their pride. By making a new test every time an old one succeeds they can discount the wii the first time one of them fails, even though there are a number of successes on the wii as well as a number of failures on the HD systems. It is not really a financial move (even though they say it is) as much as it is what they plain and simply want to do.
 
Looks like conventional shooters are finally on their way to becoming a commercially moribund genre. The big dogs will be fine, like the big dogs in any other genre, but the days of the merely-decent, B-grade FPS are over.
 
rpmurphy said:
Aside from some exceptions, would it be fair to say that marketing power and brand recognition are more important than platform this generation?
Click to expand...
Most definitely, although platform choice is still important, because you have to choose the correct platform for your game. Last gen all they had to do was throw everything on the PS2.
 
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